The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key New York Giants players heading into their matchup with the Green Bay Packers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Jameis Winston, QB
Jameis Winston was announced on Wednesday as the Week 11 starter for the Giants, and while that makes for fun headlines, you’re taking on a lot of risk with minimal reward potential by leaning into it for your fantasy roster.
From a macro standpoint, only once has a QB reached 20 fantasy points against the Packers this season, and Winston has hit that number in just three of his past nine starts.
That lone instance against Green Bay was Dak Prescott back in Week 3, a game in which George Pickens and Jake Ferguson caught 15-of-18 targets for 174 yards and three scores.
Who is going to do that sort of thing for Winston in New York?
The last three times that we’ve seen Winston start, he’s funneled at least 29.8% of his targets to a single star player. With Malik Nabers out for the season and a hapless run game, this is a one-dimensional offense without such a playmaker.
I’ve got Winston ranked outside of my top 20 at the position this week, ranking behind QBs that I generally don’t love but are in plus-matchups like Aaron Rodgers (vs. CIN), Geno Smith (vs. DAL), and Tua Tagovailoa (vs. WAS).
Jaxson Dart, QB
Jaxson Dart is dealing with a concussion issue for the fourth time this season, and the piling up nature of injuries makes a change of style possible.
Good for his long-term health, but not for his fantasy stock.
Dart has a rushing score in five straight games and has averaged 8+ yards per pass in three of his past four. This iteration of Dart is an asset that could threaten the top tier next season, but if they try to take some of the crazy out of this, there’s natural risk that comes with changing how he sees the game.
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All that said, I’m going to start him until we have tangible proof that a shift in style is happening. Dart isn’t going to play this weekend, but if he’s tasked with keeping up with the Lions on the fast track in Detroit next week, he’ll be flirting with top 5 status for me.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB
More information is generally a good thing. I’ve lived my life under this assumption, and I don’t regret it.
That said, when the additional information contradicts the initial, paralysis by analysis can occur.
What data points can we trust? Is there a split to consider? Have we learned anything of value?
I’m as guilty as anyone of overthinking these types of things, and I’m going to show personal growth here.
I don’t know who the Giants are going to run their backfield through, and I don’t think they do either.
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Week 9 vs. 49ers
- Tyrone Tracy: 44.6% snaps, 4 targets, 8 touches
- Devin Singletary: 55.4% snaps, 2 targets, 10 touches
Week 10 at Bears
- Tyrone Tracy: 65.7% snaps, 2 targets, 15 touches
- Devin Singletary: 34.3% snaps, 3 targets, 11 touches
Weeks 9-10
- Tyrone Tracy: 56.3% snaps, 6 targets, 23 touches
- Devin Singletary: 43.7% snaps, 5 targets, 21 touches
I don’t think we know anything, and in a matchup against a strong defense like the Packers roll out, I’m not the least bit tempted to guess.
Tracy’s receiver background has him higher in my ranks than Singletary this week because of the projected game script, but my conviction is low.
And my interest … lower.
If you’re fielding a competitive team this week, the odds are good that you’re not relying on either Giant RB, and if you are, you don’t have any other options.
Darius Slayton, WR
Darius Slayton was onto something with 85 yards in the first 17 minutes last week (three receptions), but a hamstring injury limited his effectiveness the rest of the way.
The deep threat really hasn’t gotten anything going this season, regardless of who is under center.
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From a process standpoint, his vertical game would seem to mesh with what Russell Wilson likes to do, making this an interesting DFS punt option should the veteran get the nod and you’re with me in believing the Giants are playing from behind for most of this game.
We have a 6.5-year sample of Slayton being a below-average target earner, and that has me willing to lean into the variance if we get the “moon ball” specialist playing quarterback. Either way, I’m not the least bit tempted to go this direction in redraft leagues.
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR
If you answered “Wan’Dale Robinson” to the “who leads the league in receptions over the past two weeks” question, you deserve a prize.
Technically, if you answered “Drake London,” you do too (tied at 15), but you get the idea.
Robinson is finally fulfilling the role we penciled him in for this preseason (sub-6-yard aDOT in both of those games), and that elevates his floor to a point where he’s in the PPR flex conversation.
That profile doesn’t change dramatically if Russell Wilson is under center, as I view it more as an opposing-defense stat than anything else.
If the opponent is content to give up short passes, Robinson is a threat to reach 15 PPR points. If not, we are looking at a player with as low a floor as any at the position.
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Green Bay rarely blitzes and looks to take away the big play, something that leaves plenty of high-percentage, short-yardage targets for the taking. They own the fifth-lowest opponent aDOT this season, and with them as a touchdown-plus road favorite, a high dropback game seems inevitable, thus raising the Robinson projection.
He’s my WR33 this week, making him a flex play in deeper leagues.
Theo Johnson, TE
A shoulder injury popped up during practice last week, but Theo Johnson was off the injury report before the game, and it didn’t take long for him to make his presence known.
Against the Bears, he became the first tight end in nearly a full year (Week 12, 2024 Jonnu Smith) to have at least six grabs and 70 yards in the first half of the game.
Jaxson Dart threw each of his first two passes to the ultra-athletic prospect and clearly trusts Johnson to make plays in high-leverage spots.
The rookie quarterback’s status is up in the air at the moment, and a Russell Wilson-led offense isn’t nearly as appealing. Should Dart play, I’d rather roll the dice on his tight end than gamble on disappointing veterans like Zach Ertz, T.J. Hockenson, or Mark Andrews.
If that’s not the case, he falls below that tier and would only be on my radar as a DFS punt.