It is May, and the NFL landscape has shifted significantly following the NFL Draft and the initial wave of free agency. Managers are already scouring early data to find an edge over their competition. While the heart of draft season is months away, comparing early rankings to current ADP is the first step in building a winning fantasy football roster. Some players are currently being valued far differently by the consensus. Let’s dive into some of them at the wide receiver position.
Rankings vs. ADP
Obligatory caveat: It’s May. I just did my first pass of redraft rankings following the NFL Draft. It’s early…very early. ADP will change. My rankings will change. My entire opinion on some players may change. The heart of fantasy draft season is over three months away. The research is in its very early stages. But that doesn’t mean we can’t compare rankings to ADP.
ADP matters. A lot. Generally, and especially more recently, ADP is pretty sharp. Yes, outliers are how we win championships in fantasy football and each season is typically decided by a handful of difference-making players. Identifying those players is the key to success. That means looking at where each manager’s personal rankings deviates from ADP and determining who is wrong…because someone is wrong. It might be ADP. It might be us. Either way, whenever there is a significant gap between a ranking and ADP, someone will be wrong.
That’s what I’m doing today. Looking at wide receivers that I have ranked meaningfully above or below consensus.
Now, the nature of this exercise is much different in May than it is in August. By August, my takes on players have crystallized. I am much more confident in what I think these players will do.
The same goes for ADP. In May, June, and even July, all we really have is Best Ball ADP. Managed season-long drafts are not happening yet. By mid August, we will know where the market stands.
Right now, the goal is not to draw to conclusions. It’s to figure out what questions to ask. Here are several players where my initial ranking differs from ADP (values taken from Underdog Best Ball).
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
ADP: WR16
My Rank: WR9
This one has me befuddled. What am I missing? Chris Olave averaged 16.8 PPG last season. He was the clear alpha, commanding a 29.4% target share. Kellen Moore’s offenses have always been very good and he not only feeds his top receiver, but is creative in getting him the ball.
Tyler Shough made significant strides over the final month of his rookie season and now enters this year as the unquestioned starter.
Sure, Olave has injury concerns. But so does every professional football player. I’m not quite understanding why meaningful regression is being baked into Olave’s profile.
Maybe as the offseason progresses, there will be signals the Jordyn Tyson is the better receiver. I think there’s plenty to go around for both of them.
The Saints were completely devoid of any legitimate receiving threat outside of Olave last season. Tyson’s targets are not coming from Olave; they’re coming from everyone else.
I have Olave ranked lower than where he finished last season. His ADP seems to be assuming a much larger drop off. I see an ascending player on an ascending offense with an ascending QB.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
ADP: WR25
My Rank: WR20
This is another one that is out of character for me. I typically don’t target older players. Terry McLaurin is coming off the worst season of his career and will be 31 years old this season.
Despite McLaurin only averaging 11.4 PPG, he didn’t show any signs of decline. McLaurin averaged 2.29 yards per route run, 13th in the league and 9.7 yards per target, 16th in the league.
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I don’t blame McLaurin’s career worst season on his performance whatsoever. He missed seven games due to injury, and Jayden Daniels missed 10. It was a disaster season for the Commanders.
Everything should be better this year and McLaurin is the unquestioned WR1 with even less target competition.
Deebo Samuel is gone. Treylon Burks and rookie Antonio Williams currently project to be the WR2 and WR3. McLaurin only saw a 23.3% target share last season. That can easily push 27-28%.
McLaurin ran really hot on touchdowns in 2024. His 15.8 PPG was always going to be the outlier. I am not expecting him to return to that level. But can he repeat his 2024 season with 5-6 fewer scores? Absolutely. I will gladly sign for roughly 14 PPG from the WR25.
Mike Evans, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: WR22
My Rank: WR31
Last year, Mike Evans saw his 1,000 yard streak come to an end, almost entirely due to injuries. But even in the games he played, Evans wasn’t quite as good. There were clear and obvious signs of decline leading to his 10.6 PPG.
Evans only averaged 1.67 yards per route run and 6.0 yards per target. Baker Mayfield certainly shoulders some of the blame, but a 48.4% catch rate is hard to sugarcoat.
Now, Evans is 33 years old, the age at which most WRs are deeply in decline. He’s switching teams, which is a very bad sign for older wide receivers. He’s coming off the worst season of his career. He’s dealt with hamstring strains two straight seasons. And he’s going to one of the lowest volume passing offenses in the NFL. Over the past three seasons, Brock Purdy is averaging 3.4 fewer pass attempts per game than Mayfield.
Of course, I see the counterpoint. He’s Mike Evans. Last year was a product of Mayfield and the injuries. If he can stay on the field, Purdy is a better quarterback. It is unquantifiable how much better of a coach Kyle Shanahan is than Todd Bowles and how much more efficient his offense is. Evans has 14 TD upside. Christian McCaffrey is 30 years old. George Kittle is 33 and coming off a torn achilles. Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings are gone. Ricky Pearsall can’t stay on the field. I can’t argue with the upside case.
My general instinct is to fade aging WRs who change teams after showing signs of decline, but I was in Davante Adams last season. I can see a path to changing my mind. But right now, I am skeptical of Evans.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP: WR30
My Rank: WR41
The upside case is very easy to paint for Brian Thomas Jr. Look at his rookie year. 87 receptions, 1,282 yards, 10 touchdowns. In the history of the NFL, no wide receiver who posted 1,200+ receiving yards as a rookie has ever busted. It just doesn’t happen. But last year happened.
Thomas saw his target share drop from 25.5% to 19.3%. He was only targeted on 20.4% of his routes run. His aDOT increased to 14.5, which is not a good thing. Thomas opened the season as the clear WR1, but because of his performance, his team stopped giving him layup targets and turned him into a sacrificial X receiver. The Jaguars traded for Jakobi Meyers midseason and immediately installed him as the WR1 ahead of Thomas. Then, former Day 3 WR Parker Washington emerged and also outplayed Thomas, who was third among these three WRs in PFSN Impact Score.
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The Jaguars made the playoffs. Trevor Lawrence had the best season of his career. Liam Coen’s offense worked.
This offseason, the Jaguars made it a point to extend Meyers. Washington has drawn tons of praise for his toughness and willingness to go over the middle.
For me to be back on Thomas, I will need the following question answered: “Why will this year be any different than last year?”
