Kyle Soppe’s Week 11 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help each of you with your specific fantasy football questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on X, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers | PIT (vs CIN)

There was a drop that turned into an interception.

There was a missed shot on a 41-yard touchdown to DK Metcalf that Aaron Rodgers probably hits about as often as Steph Curry makes a free throw.

I get that there were chances for Sunday night in Los Angeles to be very different for the future Hall of Famer, but it wasn’t. He’s started 250 games, and this was his seventh-worst (minimum 30 dropbacks) in terms of fantasy points per pass attempt.

• 31 attempts
• 16 completions
• 161 yards
• 1 TD
• 2 INTs

If not for the touchdown on Pittsburgh’s final possession of a 15-point loss, we are looking at one of the worst starts in recent memory for a player with a resume like that.

Less than a month ago, he threw four touchdown passes in Cincinnati against these Bengals on short rest.

So now what?

I’ll pass.

Rodgers has four games without multiple TD passes this season and has yet to reach 250 passing yards in a contest this year. I’m not suggesting that the Bengals come off their bye with some sort of revamped defense, but extra time to prepare for a vanilla offense that doesn’t challenge you down the field if they can help it?

I fully expect a bounce-back performance, but am I confident that he’s the sixth QB to score 20+ fantasy points against Cincinnati in their past seven games?

I’m not.

RELATED: Free Fantasy Waiver Wire Tool

With no mobility (he has as many TD passes as rushing yards), 20 points means 250 passing yards, three touchdowns, and an interception. That feels like a ceiling for Rodgers, and we saw on Sunday night that the floor could collapse in a big way if the script veers away from this conservative game plan.

The two teams on bye don’t require you to stream the position if you weren’t already, so the odds are very good that I’d advise you to stick with the man on your roster rather than go this direction: Rodgers is currently hovering around my QB15 for Week 11.

Baker Mayfield | TB (at BUF)

Baker Mayfield broke out of a modest two-game fantasy slump with 273 yards and three scores against the Patriots, funneling 58.1% of his targets to his two most trusted weapons in Emeka Egbuka and Cade Otton.

His willingness to focus on his top playmakers is commendable, and the Bills coughed up 8.2 yards per attempt to Tua Tagovailoa in the upset loss last week, but this is a profile that is still iffy at best.

Mayfield has gone three straight games without a single rushing attempt, and if Egbuka doesn’t land a big play, where does Mayfield look for fantasy production (non-Egbuka Bucs on Sunday: 152 yards on 22 catches and 30 targets)?

The Bills have had over 31 minutes of possession in eight of nine games this season, something that stands to limit Mayfield’s volume. After this week, consider me a Baker bull (Weeks 13-18 schedule: Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Dolphins, and Panthers), but in the scope of Week 11, I’m lower than the industry average and have him on the fringe of usable.

Bo Nix | DEN (vs KC)

The Broncos have three wins this season in games in which they’ve scored under 20 points.

In the year 2025, team success and QB stats are as tied together as ever, but Bo Nix is the exception. Against the Raiders on Thursday night, we saw the developmental version of this profile rear its ugly head (one of six when throwing deep, with two interceptions), something that is at risk at any moment.

Nix lit up the Chiefs a season ago (48-of-59 for 536 yards and six touchdowns), but one of those games came in Week 18, and this version of this Denver offense isn’t nearly as potent.

If you’re playing Nix, you have to be very confident in the matchup, and even then, we saw that plan fall flat last week. I expect the Broncos’ defense to battle in this spot, and if they can keep this game close, we’ll see a lot of RJ Harvey (J.K. Dobbins has been ruled out with a foot injury).

The range of outcomes is as great as any QB this side of Justin Fields, and that makes him impossible to trust when facing a top 10 defense that should tie this offense in knots.

Brock Purdy | SF (at ARI)

There’s said to be cautious optimism in San Francisco that Brock Purdy will return from this nagging toe injury this week, and while the matchup is strong, you’d have to be in real trouble for me to green-light plugging him into a standard lineup with just two teams on a bye.

This system can, and probably will, make Purdy viable, but I need proof of health before gambling on the Kyle Shanahan scheme of goodness (Mac Jones has thrown for multiple scores in three straight games).

If you can sit on Purdy this week, I think you’re good to go next week on Monday night against the Panthers. The fantasy playoffs bring about a favorable stretch (Titans, Colts, and Bears) that includes nothing but strong weather forecasts and good script projections.

You’ve been patient up to this point; all I’m asking for is one more week. If Purdy was cut loose, now is the time to beat the rush and add him. He won’t be ranked inside of my top 12 this week, even if 100% cleared for action, but if that’s the case, he’ll be in that mix for the remainder of the season and potentially inside the top 10 for that Week 15-17 stretch where your league champion is being decided.

Bryce Young | CAR (at ATL)

The Panthers could be in the worst possible spot as a franchise.

They’ve won too much this season to land a top pick, but they’ve done so without getting any signs of growth from Bryce Young.

The third-year QB has one touchdown pass over the past three games (70 attempts) and offers next to no vertical threat (four deep completions in those three games). His yards per blitzed pass attempt are down 17.7% from a season ago, despite having more talent at his disposal, and he is struggling to put together 30 good minutes, not to mention 60.

Could Carolina be aggressive at the 2026 draft in terms of trading up?

It’s far too early to speculate on that front, but it seems like we know, at the very least, that Young isn’t the answer that fantasy managers are looking for.

C.J. Stroud | HOU (at TEN)

C.J. Stroud (concussion) was unable to play last week, and the hope is that he can return for this advantageous spot.

Hopefully, your fantasy fate is not riding on this situation.

Stroud has just two finishes better than QB14 this season, and while he looked good in the first matchup with the Titans (Week 4: 22-of-28 for 233 yards and two touchdowns), they were happy to run the ball 35 times in that blowout win, thus capping the fantasy upside of their QB.

If you’re intrigued by this matchup, embrace the low ownership projection, stack him with Nico Collins, and be on your way for DFS purposes. If we are talking about a season-long conversation, you would really have to be backed into a corner to go this way, even in a plus-matchup.

Caleb Williams | CHI (at MIN)

Caleb Williams is far from perfect, but for fantasy managers, he’s good enough.

Amid snow flurries and dropped passes, Williams found his way to a fourth game this season with over 24 fantasy points, this time on the back of a season-high 49% of his production coming on the ground.

His ability to move (both within and out of the pocket) is what has me expecting another QB1 finish in this specific spot. The Vikings are an aggressive defense that likes to use exotic schemes, but Williams has seen them three times in his young career and handled the pressure last week just fine (five-of-nine with a touchdown).

That showing against the Giants was good enough to be the sixth time in eight games in which he posted a triple-digit passer rating when blitzed. Combine that passing savvy with the raw athleticism, and we could see a near replica of the stat line he put up last week, one that was essentially what he gave us in the opener against these Vikings.

I doubt it’ll be a flawless effort, but over the course of the 37.9 opportunities he averages, I like our chances of getting to 20 fantasy points one way or another.

Cameron Ward | TEN (vs HOU)

Cam Ward’s next multi-TD game will be the first of his professional career, and I don’t love the odds of it coming this week against a Texans team that held him to 4.2 yards per pass back in Week 4.

Is he a future fantasy starter?

I’m not sure. The 46 rushing yards this season are a red flag, as you’d expect a rookie to default to rushing when the game is going too fast, but that hasn’t been the case. This roster needs a talent infusion, and that could unlock a new level of upside, but as we stand right now, I’m having a hard time seeing Ward (zero finishes better than QB17 this season) ranking as a top-half-of-the-league option next year.

Dak Prescott | DAL (at LV)

Dak Prescott has five top-8 finishes at the position this season, and I’m confident that he makes it six this week on a fast track coming off the bye.

Lost in some of the big plays and the volume is that Prescott is on pace to set a career-low in average depth of throw, something that allowed him to post a high floor before Weeks 8-9 when both the Broncos and Cardinals completely dominated the game and made Dallas one-dimensional.

Dallas has lost three games this season by double digits. I’m going to assume we align in the thought that we don’t see that result play out on Monday night, and in the six instances in which that hasn’t been the case, he’s been closer to elite than a roster decision.

• 22.5 fantasy PPG
• 15 touchdown passes
• 1 interception
• 4.0 deep completions per game

Fantasy football circa 2025 isn’t a safe space for pocket-locked quarterbacks, but given how this roster is built and the PROE nature of this offense, I think we can not only assume that the visitors control this game, but that they do it largely on the right shoulder of Prescott.

He’s a locked and loaded QB1 this week: there should be zero hesitation on your part.

Dillon Gabriel | CLE (vs BAL)

I thought we saw some good things from Dillon Gabriel over the weekend. He threw multiple touchdown passes for a second consecutive game, both while outside the pocket (one such TD pass prior).

We do need to acknowledge that it was against a depleted Jets team, fresh off a selling trade deadline that saw them move on from two of their top defenders.

The surging Ravens obviously boast a different challenge and very much put the rookie at risk of a truly poor performance.

Baltimore’s defense is on my DFS radar as a late-afternoon hammer, potentially in a stack with Derrick Henry, though given his production, the Browns are one-dimensional, and we see mistakes in bulk in such a spot.

Drake Maye | NE (vs NYJ)

Drake Maye was intercepted for a third straight start and completed just 51.6% of his passes against a pass funnel Buccaneers defense (previous season low: 65.2% in his 2025 debut).

I’m plenty comfortable in blaming the conditions (rainy mix) and moving on.

He showed perfect touch on the 72-yard score to Kyle Williams and now has five straight games with 220+ pass yards, 2+ pass TDs, and 7+ rushes.

That’s something no other QB has done during the 2000s.

No Mike Vick, Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, or anyone else.

Dillon Gabriel looked like an NFL quarterback against these depleted Jets last week, and there’s no reason to think that Maye is anything but elite in this divisional matchup.

The only question left on Maye at this point is … what excuse are you going to make for not winning your league title after getting such value at the highest-scoring position in our game?

Geno Smith | LV (vs DAL)

We’ve seen Geno Smith clear 280 yards with at least three passing scores in two games this season, where they were forced to play in a hyper-aggressive manner with the opponent putting points on the board, so the odds of him putting up viable numbers on Monday night are non-zero.

But I wouldn’t label them as much higher than that.

He completed six vertical passes in the Week 3 loss in Washington and has just six such completions since (15 attempts). Consider this: Brock Bowers had the game of the year in Week 9, and Smith finished that week 1.5 points away from not being a top 10 performer for the week.

Outright dismissing anyone against the Cowboys is crazy talk, but if the Raiders score in bulk on Monday, I expect it to be via the ground game and Ashton Jeanty.

Don’t get cute.

J.J. McCarthy | MIN (vs CHI)

The idea of J.J. McCarthy is there: he’s an athletic QB with plenty of pedigree and a strong supporting cast.

The practical use of him in fantasy is much trickier.

He has more interceptions (six) than touchdown passes (five) in his four starts, and he’s failed to complete over 56% of his passes in three straight.

This is obviously a good matchup, and we saw McCarthy tear up the Bears in the fourth quarter of Week 1, but we play a 60-minute game, and the former Wolverine hasn’t done nearly enough to earn our trust.

Against the Ravens last week, on 42 pass attempts, McCarthy was fantasy’s QB16: I view that as something of a ceiling for Week 11.

Jacoby Brissett | ARI (vs SF)

With Kyler Murray on injured reserve, the runway is clear for Jacoby Brissett to operate without role concern over the next three weeks, and given his production, he deserves our attention.

Brissett is the only QB this season with four straight games of 250+ passing yards and multiple TD tosses, all of which have landed him as a top 12 performer at the position. He’s following the Joe Flacco path to success, and it’s working at a similar level: weigh down your top teammates with opportunities to make you look good.

In those four games, 52% of his targets have been directed toward Marvin Harrison Jr. or Trey McBride, a rate that helps the ceiling/floor math of Brissett.

READ MORE: Soppe’s Fantasy Waiver Wire Targets Week 11: Top Players To Add Include Christian Watson, Jacoby Brissett, And Luther Burden III

Also factoring into his appeal is the fact that he’s run for at least 19 yards in three of those four games. His athleticism isn’t going to jump off the screen at you, but it’s enough to add a few bonus points and, more importantly, buy him time for Harrison/McBride to uncover.

After this week against the 49ers, the Cards face the Jaguars and Buccaneers, neither of whom has a pass defenses that scare me in a major way. At that point, Kyler Murray will be eligible to return, but are we sure this wasn’t just a soft benching?

If Brissett is producing for you, the odds are good that he’s functioning at a high level in Arizona, and that could result in him playing out the string of this season.

Why does that matter? Well, the Cards travel to Cincinnati when your fantasy league is being decided in Week 17. I’m not saying that he’ll be ranked as a top 10 QB in the most important week of our season, but I’m not ruling it out should he play well enough to hang onto the starting gig.

Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs DET)

The Eagles are 7-2, so we can’t really knock what they are doing, but they seem awfully content to milk the clock and play with small leads.

Jalen Hurts was QB18 last week against the Packers and now has three straight games without 20 completions OR a rushing touchdown. This potent Lions offense could push into a more aggressive script like the one we saw the Rams run back in September (Hurts accounted for 266 yards and four scores in that game), but it feels like the goal posts have shifted a bit for fantasy managers.

Instead of an elite ceiling and great floor, Hurts is trending toward a good ceiling with an above-average floor.

He’s a starter either way, and as long as the Tush Push is legal, Hurts is going to have Tier 1 upside thanks to the ways he can score points. That said, I think you’re well within reason to be disappointed with what you’ve gotten from him this season.

Jameis Winston | NYG (vs GB)

Jameis Winston was announced on Wednesday as the Week 11 starter for the Giants, and while that makes for fun headlines, you’re taking on a lot of risk with minimal reward potential by leaning into it for your fantasy roster.

From a macro standpoint, only once has a QB reached 20 fantasy points against the Packers this season, and Winston has hit that number in just three of his past nine starts.

That lone instance against Green Bay was Dak Prescott back in Week 3, a game in which George Pickens and Jake Ferguson caught 15-of-18 targets for 174 yards and three scores.

Who is going to do that sort of thing for Winston in New York?

The greatest city in the world!! 🎶 pic.twitter.com/qt2qzhOD9k

— New York Giants (@Giants) November 12, 2025

The last three times that we’ve seen Winston start, he’s funneled at least 29.8% of his targets to a single star player. With Malik Nabers out for the season and a hapless run game, this is a one-dimensional offense without such a playmaker.

I’ve got Winston ranked outside of my top 20 at the position this week, ranking behind QBs that I generally don’t love but are in plus-matchups like Aaron Rodgers (vs. CIN), Geno Smith (vs. DAL), and Tua Tagovailoa (vs. WAS).

Jared Goff | DET (at PHI)

Jared Goff has multiple passing scores in five of his past six games and is completing 74% of his passes … and the offense may have just leveled up?

Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties last week, and Goff’s aDOT was 4.9 yards (Weeks 1-9: 6.6). If this offense leans into their elite skill players at that sort of level, Goff’s precision could make this the high-flying unit that we saw lead the league in scoring a year ago.

He was QB5 last weekend, his first top 10 finish since Week 2. These pocket-locked QBs require a very specific game plan to be fantasy relevant, and the shift to Campbell could well be what unlocks Goff.

The Eagles’ defense showed well against Jordan Love last week, but this is a different beast. My only concern is if we get some cool temperatures with precipitation and wind, but if the forecast is clear, I’m starting Goff and not thinking twice.

Jaxson Dart | NYG (vs GB)

Jaxson Dart is dealing with a concussion issue for the fourth time this season, and the piling up nature of injuries makes a change of style possible.

Good for his long-term health, but not for his fantasy stock.

Dart has a rushing score in five straight games and has averaged 8+ yards per pass in three of his past four. This iteration of Dart is an asset that could threaten the top tier next season, but if they try to take some of the crazy out of this, there’s natural risk that comes with changing how he sees the game.

All that said, I’m going to start him until we have tangible proof that a shift in style is happening. Dart isn’t going to play this weekend, but if he’s tasked with keeping up with the Lions on the fast track in Detroit next week, he’ll be flirting with top 5 status for me.

Jayden Daniels | WAS (at MIA)

The Commanders elected not to place Jayden Daniels (elbow) on injured reserve, thus opening the door for us to speculate about a return in either Week 13 (vs. Denver) or Week 14 (at Minnesota).

Am I confident that we get the elite version of him down the stretch of the lost season?

Not really, but I also wouldn’t have guessed he’d be in for the fourth quarter of a Week 9 blowout loss, so I’m not assuming anything.

There’s an Eagles matchup to navigate, but the Commanders get the Giants (Week 15) and Cowboys (Week 17, Christmas Day) during the fantasy postseason.

There’s upside to chase, and that means Daniels needs to be stashed across all formats if he is cut loose following the ugly injury on Sunday Night Football.

Joe Flacco | CIN (at PIT)

Can he keep doing it?

The obvious answer is no, but how much regression do we build in, and what does it look like?

Joe Flacco’s 17-Game Pace As A Bengal

• 5,330 passing yards
• 47 touchdown passes
• 9 interceptions
• 736 pass attempts

Realistically, it’s the last one that’s fueling this house of cards. We saw Flacco spin his magic in this matchup in Week 7 (47 passes, 342 yards, 3 TDs), with the majority of his completions (16) and targets (23) going to Ja’Marr Chase.

That’s a pretty simplistic game plan that is hard to rely on as it is, not to mention trying to run back the exact same plan against the same unit.

In Week 7 specifically, Cincinnati was trailing for each of its first 26 offensive snaps, and things got ramped up after halftime with five straight scoring drives coming out of the break.

Everything was working for both teams, and that allowed the environment to get out of control. In that game, Pat Freiermuth turned six targets into 111 yards, Jaylen Warren and Chase Brown ran for 235 yards on 27 carries, Noah Fant caught every target thrown his way with a touchdown, and that’s even without bringing the Chase game up.

We saw the Steelers slow down a Colts offense that felt unstoppable in Week 9, a reminder that there is a natural wide range of outcomes in this league week over week. The Bengals, coming off their bye, are a plus, but their defense will continue to struggle. Still, no reputable projection is going to spit out 76.8 points in this game — the average from Cincinnati’s three games pre-bye.

As the pace slows, the volume declines, magnifying any natural drawdown in numbers. League-wide over the past five seasons, we’ve seen defenses put a cap on pass upside, forcing opponents to beat them via papercuts.

For whatever reason, we haven’t seen as much of that against Flacco up to this point. In his four starts, five of his 27 completions past the sticks (18.5%) have resulted in touchdowns, well ahead of the league average that annually hovers in the 11-12% window.

From a macro standpoint, I think we see a shift in the defensive approach now that the Flacco renaissance of this offense has lasted a month. In his four weeks with the team, the Bengals are the eighth least blitzed team and allow pressure at the second-lowest rate.

We have a blueprint for what doesn’t work, and I expect, for better or worse, to see a complete shift in the approach to handling this offense. The low blitz rate is very much how Cincinnati was defended last season, with a fully healthy Joe Burrow calling the shots.

I’m projecting more aggression from the Steelers (a top-10 pressure rate when blitzing), and that puts Flacco on the fringes of viability this week, something that might seem crazy if you’re simply tracking box scores.

Is he that much different than fellow gray-beard Aaron Rodgers in this spot?

Jordan Love | GB (at NYG)

Jordan Love has three top-15 finishes this season and has been held without a touchdown in consecutive games (73 pass attempts against the Panthers and Eagles). It’s largely been an underwhelming season for the Leader of the Pack, but if you’re going to roll the dice, this lines up to be the spot.

Entering the season, we thought the Giants would struggle, but that their defensive front would at least create pressure.

Not so much.

The Giants rank No. 22 in non-blitz pressure rate this season, a flaw that doesn’t appear likely to be rectified, and one that has me ranking Love as my QB10.

Love When Not Pressured, 2024

• Completion Percentage: 70.1%
• Yards Per Attempt: 8.2
• Touchdowns: 18
• Interceptions: 6

Love When Not Pressured, 2025

• Completion Percentage: 82.9%
• Yards Per Attempt: 9.4
• Touchdowns: 13
• Interceptions: 1

The Packers need to right the ship after consecutive losses, and if they are going to level up, their quarterback figures to add a dimension that has been lacking recently.

Josh Allen | BUF (vs TB)

The Bills looked lost on Sunday. They were never all that competitive in Miami and couldn’t get anything going.

That feels like a worst-case scenario, so Josh Allen must have sunk your week, right?

• 306 passing yards
• 2 passing TDs
• 31 rushing yards

And now he faces something of a pass funnel in a matchup that could/should pass 50 points?

Allen is my QB1 this week, and while Keenan Coleman’s touchdown came late last week, it’s a good reminder that his deep-ball passer rating is 22.8% better this year than last.

Allen is the most bulletproof player at the highest scoring position; it really is that simple.

Justin Fields | NYJ (at NE)

Two first-quarter return touchdowns left the Jets in a weird game script that had their offense hardly on the field, a runout that resulted in the fourth game this season in which Justin Fields finished with single-digit completions.

Garrett Wilson was targeted on a quarter of his routes, a tiny sample that I’d normally try to cling to, but the WR1 isn’t going to play this week. This is a one-dimensional offense facing a defense that excels at taking away that one dimension.

This could get ugly.

Justin Herbert | LAC (at JAX)

Justin Herbert wasn’t at his best against the Steelers last week, but he did have a 15+ yard rush for the third straight game, and the rushing numbers have been far more stable than I would have ever guessed.

The Jags blitz at the seventh-highest rate in the league, something that could have Herbert on the run and thus introduce some big plays. Before the poor showing in Week 10, Herbert had four straight games with multiple TD passes and completed over 67% of his passes in four of five.

I don’t want to speak out of turn, but current Herbert, in terms of fantasy, feels like Patrick Mahomes down the stretch of seasons in years past: an elite arm talent that is stretching his legs as a runner.

You’re looking at my QB5 this week and the top Tier 2 QB in my rankings for the remainder of the season.

Kyler Murray | ARI (vs SF)

The fact that we needed reports two weeks ago to tell us that the Cardinals’ starting Brissett was “not some kind of benching” of Kyler Murray is a concern.

The foot injury is a worry for a player who, at the peak of his powers, threatens defenses in a multitude of ways. But even pre-injury, we are talking about a quarterback who has yet to post a top-12 finish at the position this season.

Murray is pacing for a career low in both fantasy points per pass and per rush, making him a tough sell until we have a clean bill of health, and even then, I think I’d need to see it on the field before trusting him in lineups.

With the IR tag slapped on him last Wednesday, Murray will miss the remainder of the month, with a Week 14 return his next possible spot to impact our world.

The Cardinals play the Rams and Texans in Weeks 14-15, two matchups that I’d rather not touch, and that means, at best, a Week 16 home game against the Falcons is the next time you’d feel even remotely confident in considering Murray.

Jacoby Brissett needed garbage time last week, but he has this offense functioning at a higher level, which could mean Murray has already taken his final snap of 2022.

You can move on.

Lamar Jackson | BAL (at CLE)

It wasn’t a vintage performance on Sunday in Minnesota for Lamar Jackson (6.1 yards per pass with a touchdown, nine carries for 36 yards), but he looked healthy, and that’s the only box I need him to check right now.

Not only did he look the part, but the Ravens told us that they are confident in where he stands by having Mark Andrews flip him a pass out of a “tight” push formation.

It’s OK to admit that the ceiling isn’t what it once was. Jackson doesn’t have a 20-yard run this season and has cleared 225 passing yards just once (yet to throw 30 passes in a single game). I find it unlikely that he’s got a QB1 overall week left in the tank this season, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be trusted as a solid top 7 option at the position.

Mac Jones | SF (at ARI)

Mac Jones is pulling the Kyle Shanahan levers at a high level, and that gives him a real chance to be the top streaming option on the board this week.

Since Week 7, the Cardinals have allowed the eighth most yards per pass. They are a matchup I’m happy to target, and if Jacoby Brissett is pushing tempo on the other side, even better!

Jones has multiple TD tosses in three straight and is 52-of-63 throwing the ball over the past two weeks. That looks more like a free-throw percentage than a completion percentage, but that’s what happens when you weigh down your most talented friends with looks (Week 10: 71.8% of targets were directed to George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, or Christian McCaffrey).

He’s clearly comfortable with this plan and potentially playing for his next contract. The Jones profile isn’t perfect, but if you’re pressed into a corner or want to get creative in DFS, I think there’s juice to squeeze here.

Marcus Mariota | WAS (at MIA)

The Commanders were never really competitive with the Lions last week, eliminating all hope for offensive balance (running backs: 22 carries for just 71 yards).

I don’t think Miami puts it on Washington the same way Detroit did, and that should help. Still, this defense has looked improved over their past two games played on standard rest (wins over the Falcons and Bills), and that gives us the excuse we need not at all to be interested in this offense.

In theory, Mariota’s legs offer some cheat code potential, but he doesn’t have a 10-yard rush in consecutive outings, and if that continues, it robs him of the single-play upside that would give him a prayer at finishing top 15.

Matthew Stafford | LAR (vs SEA)

Matthew Stafford is moving up the MVP odds board and for good reason after he became the first QB in NFL history to throw four touchdown passes with zero interceptions in back-to-back-to-back games.

During Los Angeles’ four-game win streak, he’s completing 81.5% of his passes with 12 TDs and 0 interceptions on balls thrown less than 10 yards, and that’s exactly why I’m playing him without a second thought in this matchup.

The Seahawks are a good, if not great, defense that swarms all over the place. That said, they rank 21st in YAC allowed per reception, and with Stafford getting the ball to his playmakers in a hurry, I expect his talent to be on display.

Michael Penix Jr. | ATL (vs CAR)

I’d be hard-pressed to put positive Michael Penix’s performance in Germany against the Colts as “good,” but he did all that we ask of him: give Drake London a chance to be the difference-maker we know him to be.

In the Week 9 loss to the Patriots, 40.9% of his completions (41.2% of his targets) went to his WR1, and half of his completions last week went that direction, numbers that don’t include the two-point conversion late.

Is Penix the long-term answer in Atlanta? Is he a future fantasy asset?

I’m not sold on either being true, but he doesn’t have to be for us to get what we need. If you have to go this direction in Superflex situations, I think you can get away with it because of London’s greatness, but outside of that league format, Penix shouldn’t be on your radar.

Patrick Mahomes | KC (at DEN)

The Broncos have quietly had Patrick Mahomes’ number of late (last three games: 138 dropbacks, two touchdowns, and three interceptions), and if Patrick Surtain (pec) can return to action, they are as well-equipped as anyone to slow down an offense that, at times, feels inevitable.

You can bet against Andy Reid, off a bye, coming off a loss… I’m not going to join you.

Before the Week 9 dud in Buffalo, Mahomes had four straight games with 28+ rushing yards and 7.8+ yards per pass. Not surprisingly, his ceiling has been raised even further since Rashee Rice returned from suspension, and this multifaceted attack should be able to handle even a tough matchup.

Denver has struggled some against power run games, but that’s not what Kansas City has access to, so I think we can count on another 40+ opportunity (pass-plus-rush attempts) game for Mahomes. This projection lands him easily inside of my top 10.

This isn’t a time to get cute. In fact, I’d be more likely to lean into the matchup concerns should it drive down projected DFS ownership.

Sam Darnold | SEA (at LAR)

Sam Darnold continues to impress, and this team has a Rashid Shaheed card to play when they are comfortable.

Could they unleash the deep threat in this huge game?

I was impressed with Darnold scrambling to extend an early play last week, keeping his eyes downfield and allowing Cooper Kupp to position himself in the perfect spot for what turned into a 67-yard gain.

You could run away because of the three turnovers last week, but I’m not too worried on that front. The Rams allowed Mac Jones to eclipse 22 fantasy points for a second time last week, and I like the chances of Darnold posting top-15 numbers this week.

In Week 11, Dak Prescott (at Raiders) and Matthew Stafford are the only two true pocket passers that I have ranked ahead of Seattle’s main man.

Trevor Lawrence | JAX (vs LAC)

The Chargers’ defense has looked great against inferior competition and given up some production to true dual threats on talented teams, so the question is simple: which bucket does Trevor Lawrence fall into?

At this point, I’m leaning toward the former, which has him outside my top 20 this weekend. Lawrence has just one multi-TD pass game over his past seven, and with the rushing production hit-or-miss, there are far more paths to failure than success when facing a tough defense.

We just saw Los Angeles force Aaron Rodgers into one of the worst games we’ve ever seen him play, and while Lawrence offers more mobility than that, if the passing metrics struggle, you need a multi-rush TD game to make this stream worth it — and that’s just not the smart play.

Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (vs WAS)

Tua Tagovailoa had the two interceptions last week in the upset of the Bills, the fourth time in five games he has had at least as many INTs as TDs, but overall, I thought he played above his season average for the second time in three weeks.

The touchdown pass to Jaylen Waddle was a 38-yard dime, and his willingness to feed his WR1 since the Tyreek Hill injury is good to see. Waddle has at least five grabs in five of six games and has a 35+ yard catch in four of those games, a trend that has developed thanks to a versatile skill set.

Tagovailoa is doing what we need him to do for the pieces we trust in this offense (De’Von Achane is pacing for 83.3 receptions and is already over 1,100 scrimmage yards). Still, without rushing upside or passing aggression, there’s really no risk analysis that is going to work in favor of Miami’s signal-caller for fantasy managers.

When Throwing Past The Sticks

• 2022: 117.0 passer rating, 2.6 TD/INT
• 2023: 109.3 passer rating, 1.4 TD/INT
• 2024: 92.3 passer rating, 1.0 TD/INT
• 2025: 67.4 passer rating, 0.6 TD/INT

It’s perfectly fair to say that we’ve seen some better play from Tagovailoa of late, but that doesn’t mean he should be starting for your fantasy team, even in a plus-matchup.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN (vs CHI)

I believed Aaron Jones would be something of a situational back to Jordan Mason’s lead. That Minnesota would lean on the veteran when behind and the younger, more explosive option in neutral-to-positive situations.

I still think the first part of that statement is accurate, but with Jones handling all 10 first-quarter snaps last week as an underdog against the Ravens, might he just be a reliable source of volume moving forward?

I’ll wait one more week before locking into that thought, but things are certainly trending in that direction. This is a great spot as a home favorite to test the prior thought: if Jones is featured out of the gates, this team has made their decision, and we treat him as an RB2.

If not, this is another backfield that we can’t trust.

I’m hoping for some clarity and am cautiously ranking it this way: Jones is my RB24.

Ashton Jeanty | LV (vs DAL)

The rushing volume has been there from the jump, and his target share is trending toward what it should have been all along (6.5% through Week 4, but 15.8% since). But the supporting cast makes it hard to get too excited about a player in Ashton Jeanty, whom we view as a potentially generational RB.

The average NFL running back gets hit behind the line of scrimmage roughly 25% of the time. Jeanty’s rate sits at 32.2% through 10 weeks, and with Geno Smith unable to back defenses off the line of scrimmage, why would we expect that to change?

Jeanty has found the end zone in three of his past four games thanks to his raw talent, but don’t take those fantasy point totals as an excuse to label this rookie as a safe option.

Ashton Jeanty has forced a missed tackle at the 3rd highest rate of all RBs

yet has been stuffed for a loss or no gain at the 2nd highest rate in the league

frustrating to watch his tape and see both happen on the same play pic.twitter.com/bcoc1zkArk

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) November 12, 2025

Vegas offers as low an offensive floor as any team in the NFL. This matchup is golden, and if/when an elite talent like this has a big game in a primetime spot, the reflex is to overreact.

I’m getting ahead of that. The upside in anything but elite matchups is capped, and after this week, there’s no other above-average spot for the Raider run game until after Christmas.

Bhayshul Tuten | JAX (vs LAC)

Bhayshul Tuten was one of the late risers late in the draft process this summer. While he’s produced 30% of expectations on his limited run this year, the opportunity to grow into a meaningful role simply hasn’t presented itself.

There’s no hope at standalone value this season outside of an injury, but I do want to see some explosive potential before his rookie year comes to a close (45 carries, and his longest run is 11 yards).

Travis Etienne will be a UFA this summer, opening the door in a major way for Tuten. Use the final weeks of this season as a time to form an opinion on this prospect, not as a time to consider him for your lineup.

Bijan Robinson | ATL (vs CAR)

Was it frustrating to see Tyler Allgeier not only handle the red zone work early, but be the trusted running back on a gotta-have-it drive at the end of regulation?

Very.

Is there anything you can do but shake an angry fist at the TV screen?

Not really.

Robinson remains one of the elites in this game and deserves to be treated as such, both in how you view him in season-long and your roster construction strategy for DFS.

When these teams met in Week 3, Robinson averaged 5.5 yards per carry, caught 83.3% of his targets, and finished with 111 yards from scrimmage. I have no issue with penciling in similar levels of success, and if he can add a touchdown to the production line, he has a shot to be the most productive RB in the sport this week.

Shake off last week. It’s annoying, but not predictive of anything that requires you to panic.

Blake Corum | LAR (vs SEA)

Blake Corum has handled 13 carries in consecutive blowout wins, and that may have you interested in chasing an expanding role, but you’re smarter than that.

All 26 of those rushing attempts (and 61.2% for the season) have come with the Rams up by at least seven points, and banking on such a situation in a game like this is dangerous at best.

I’ve been impressed with the general skill shown by the second-year back (he has more 10+ yard gains than attempts stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage) and would be inclined to rank him as a viable RB2 should Kyren Williams miss time.

That makes him rosterable, but with no signs of fatigue for RB1, Corum remains a bench piece with no lineup equity.

Brashard Smith | KC (at DEN)

I was let down by Brashard Smith, who only earned a 17.5% snap share in Week 9 against the Bills with Isiah Pacheco sidelined, but reports have surfaced that the Chiefs are interested in a more even split between the two in neutral spots.

That’s interesting.

The rookie had a run of four straight games with 3+ receptions earlier this season and saw 29.9% of his collegiate touches come in the passing game. If we can get him trending toward 8-12 carries per game, that would open up Smith to be the most valuable Kansas City RB and a weekly flex option.

I’m not there yet. Talk is cheap, and we know that Andy Reid is more than happy to lean into creative schemes to keep the defense off balance. That said, things do seem to be moving in a positive direction, and if he can push 15 opportunities coming out of the bye, I won’t be slow to move him up in my future rankings.

Breece Hall | NYJ (at NE)

This offense is limited in a lot of ways, but two return touchdowns in the first quarter allowed them to lean into a positive game script, and when that’s the case, Breece Hall is going to pay off (125 yards and a touchdown).

A negative script won’t completely rule out a viable Hall afternoon (five games with 30+ receiving yards this season), but we’ve seen the damage he can do in a neutral-to-positive runout over the past two games (39 carries for 216 yards and two scores, 5.5 yards per carry).

I’m not overly confident that New York keeps this game close, which introduces a floor outcome we haven’t seen recently, but even with that risk factored in, the lead back on a run-centric offense deserves to be ranked as a top-20 back.

Bucky Irving | TB (at BUF)

After Bucky Irving (foot/shoulder) was hurt in Week 4, the general idea was that he’d be good to go in Week 10 following the team’s bye, but that didn’t prove to be the case after an entire week of missed practices.

At this point, I’m trending in the direction of needing a game of proof health-wise before locking Tampa’s RB1 back into my lineup. Irving’s value in September was volume (90 touches in those four games helped offset 3.3 yards per carry), and it’s fair to think that a team with hopes of playing deep into January is cautious with their explosive 23-year-old RB.

Keep tabs and do your homework. Reporting around this injury has largely been strong, and I think it stands to reason that we will have a good idea of just how much work Irving will be counted on for ahead of his return, whenever that is.

Until then, Rachaad White remains a viable RB2. There’s a world in which he holds onto flex value for the week until Irving returns, as his role in the pass game is a specific skill that has tremendous value to an offense battling through various receiver injuries.

Chase Brown | CIN (at PIT)

Chase Brown has scored 65.6 PPR points in Joe Flacco’s four starts, a massive improvement from the 49.5 he scored in the five games prior, his efficiency driving the ship.

• In Flacco starts: 1.13 PPR points per touch
• Pre-Flacco: 0.60 PPR points per touch

The ability to find holes and hit them for big chunk gains seems to be much easier with this offense opening up, and I think we can bank on that sustaining (20.9% of his carries have gained 10+ yards, up from a pathetic 1.5% prior).

It’s been a season of ups and downs for the Pittsburgh defense, which widens the range of potential outcomes, but I’m not hesitating to start Brown in this spot. These teams last met in Week 7, and Brown picked up yardage on 100% of his carries in his only game this season, reaching triple-figure rushing yards.

Expecting that level of production might be a bit optimistic, but 100 total yards is reasonable on a role that figures to see 12-14 carries and five-ish targets.

You drafted Brown as a weekly starter, and after a brutal start, I think that’s what you have for the remainder of the season.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (at MIA)

All three Washington running backs played 31-44% of the snaps, ran 6-9 routes, and handled at least one red zone touch.

That’s about as even of a three-way split as you’ll see, and while the game script factored into some of that, there is no denying that this backfield lacks clarity.

Did I mention that the trio of Chris Rodriguez, Jeremy McNichols, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt combined for 14.5 PPR points?

There isn’t enough juice to squeeze from this backfield if it were all concentrated.

Christian McCaffrey | SF (at ARI)

Christian McCaffrey is a workhorse running back who is averaging a target for every two rush attempts this season.

He has 69 catches and 180 carries this season; no other running back with 145+ carries has more than 32 targets.

We are dealing with a truly unique player with the highest floor we’ve seen in quite some time. McCaffrey is averaging 3.5 yards per carry and hasn’t had a run gain more than 16 yards; it doesn’t matter.

The Brian Robinson drive last week (the first of the second half) was a pain, but your complaining is going to fall on deaf ears. You got a discount on the most fantasy-friendly role of a generation: it’s on you to build a winner around him.

The 49ers get the Titans, Colts, and Bears during the fantasy postseason. CMC is going to do his job; you can count on that.

Chuba Hubbard | CAR (at ATL)

Dave Canales indicated before Week 9 that this backfield was shifting in Rico Dowdle’s favor, and he has been holding a 43-8 carry edge over Chuba Hubbard since those comments. I think it’s safe to say we have a bellcow situation.

Clear handcuffs have a spot on very good fantasy rosters, but if you’re clawing for every win you can get, Hubbard doesn’t need to be rostered. The Panthers still have the bye ahead of them (Week 14). With the only matchup that looks advantageous moving forward being a rematch of what we saw over the weekend against the Saints (Carolina ran 23 times for 73 yards), there’s next to no chance that we get a situation where this backfield supports multiple running backs.

Rostering a handcuff isn’t wrong. Rostering a handcuff in a below-average offense that has a tough remaining schedule?

That’s a different story if you’re pressed for roster space.

D’Andre Swift | CHI (at MIN)

D’Andre Swift entered Week 10 listed as questionable with the groin injury that held him out of Week 9, but you wouldn’t have known it.

Week 10 vs. Giants

• 92.3% gain rate
• 65% of RB carries
• 3.4 yards per carry after contact

Kyle Monangai, following Cole Kmet into the end zone from eight yards out, was frustrating, but it was Swift out there to start the game, Swift with the edge in red-zone touches, and Swift with an 8-1 advantage in targets.

The involvement in the passing game is what most interests me, given how this offense is opening up and why I think he has nothing to worry about when it comes to work.

Chicago has scored 24+ points in six of its past seven games, making this a favorable environment for all of its regulars. The schedule does the Bears no favors moving forward, and while I think that could cap his upside, 15+ touches for a versatile player at the center of a Ben Johnson offense is enough for me to lock in Swift every week in which he is healthy.

David Montgomery | DET (at PHI)

No one skill has dramatically dipped from last season, but David Montgomery is losing on the fringes everywhere.

• 2024
  • 14.7% above PPR expectations
  • 0.80 points per rush
  • 13.2 carries per game
  • 41.5% snap share
  • 85.4% rush gain rate
• 2025
  • 6.1% above PPR expectations
  • 0.73 points per rush
  • 11.6 carries per game
  • 41.5% snap share
  • 84.6% rush gain rate

The volume is trending down, but not enough on its own to sink him. Where Montgomery managers are feeling the squeeze is the 34.2% decline in red-zone touches per game, and with Jahmyr Gibbs running wild, there’s zero reason to think things will improve over time.

Dan Campbell took over the offensive play-calling last week, and while Montgomery got his work, Gibbs topped him in touches in each of the first three quarters before the game got out of hand.

This is a tough matchup, but it wouldn’t shock me if Detroit played a bit of a smash-mouth brand of ball against an Eagles team on a shorter week after playing on Monday night. I’ve got Montgomery ranked as a low-end RB2, ahead of both running backs for the Vikings, Giants, Seahawks, and Bears, to name a few.

The upside may not be there, but you’re getting double-digit touches in an explosive offense than at this point in the season; that’s the profile of a fantasy starter.

De’Von Achane | MIA (vs WAS)

De’Von Achane plays for a Dolphins team that hasn’t been in the news for positive on-the-field reasons for much of this season, and I think that has some overlooking just how good a player we are looking at.

Profile 1

• 36.1% over PPR expectations
• 25.3 PPR PPG
• 5.0 receptions per game

Profile 2

• 20.2% over PPR expectations
• 26.6 PPR PPG
• 4.2 receptions per game

Both of those résumés are obviously impressive, but can you place them?

I’ll buy you some time to guess.

He ripped off a pair of impressive touchdown runs in the fourth quarter last weekend against the Bills, helping them get that upset to the finish line. The first was a 59-yard burst where he’s one of very few who cashes it in thanks to his rare blend of agility, power, and speed; the second a 35-yarder that iced the game.

With this island game, I hope that more people will be exposed to Achane than on a standard Sunday when plays are happening left and right. This is a player that I think could have a real case to be the top running back selected ahead of the 2026 season.

• Profile 1: Achane in wins or one-score games this season
• Profile 2: The best season of Todd Gurley’s career

Derrick Henry | BAL (at CLE)

We’ve yet to get the spike Derrick Henry game since Lamar Jackson’s return, but it’s bubbling beneath the surface.

More importantly, the Ravens are winning ball games and looking good in doing so. They’ve rattled off three straight wins, and that’s put Henry in position to touch the ball 20+ times in each of those contests, something that has been the expectation for The King since joining this team.

Justice Hill punched in a one-yard score last week as part of a sped-up drive, and that’s a pain, but again, trust the direction of this offense more than its production lately.

If you survived the lean days of Henry this season, he could well be the reason you cross the finish line.

Remaining Schedule

• Week 12 vs. Jets
• Week 13 vs. Bengals
• Week 14 vs. Steelers
• Week 15 at Bengals
• Week 16 vs. Patriots
• Week 17 at Packers

Dylan Sampson | CLE (vs BAL)

Quinshon Judkins entered the Week 9 bye a little banged up, and that caused Dylan Sampson to pick up some ownership heading into Week 10 in hopes that the rookie may get an extended opportunity to prove himself for a team that is best served to be looking beyond this season.

Not even close.

Sampson was on the field for just 27.1% of the offensive snaps in the loss to the Jets, while Judkins handled 24 of 28 running back touches.

The Browns are the fourth-worst scoring offense in the NFL, and given their lack of versatility, there’s no need to carry a handcuff running back any longer. In very deep leagues, Sampson did play more than Jerome Ford, and I think that sticks, but I’m not sold that even a Judkins injury would get him into my top 30 for any one week.

Isiah Pacheco | KC (at DEN)

A Week 8 MCL sprain cost Isiah Pacheco one game, but the well-timed bye has that seeming like the only action he’ll miss.

Of course, as far as fantasy managers are concerned, missed time was a blessing as it prevented the mistake of starting him.

In the four weeks before the DNP, Pacheco had one top 30 finish at the position, quite an accomplishment given the form of this offense as a whole. How does that happen?

Well, in those first eight weeks, he posted a 15.7% red zone touch share. Kareem Hunt is the clear top option, but Patrick Mahomes and Brashad Smith (both with a 14.3% share over that stretch) were effectively just as likely to touch the ball in valuable situations as Pacheco.

A four-way split with Rashee Rice coming on fast?

That’s a tough pill to swallow, not to mention whispers surfacing last week that we could be looking at “split carries” between him and Smith, cutting into the small niche role that he had access to.

I thought Pacheco was running hard pre-injury and was trending in the right direction, but another injury introduces more risk than the previous profile had room for reward. We just saw Ashton Jeudy get hit within two yards of the line of scrimmage on 15 of 19 carries against these Broncos on Thursday night, making this a spot where you’re best off searching for any warm body over a less-than-full-strength Pacheco.

J.K. Dobbins | DEN (vs KC)

This offense is inconsistent at best and broken at worst, but J.K. Dobbins remains the bellcow, and given the strength of this defense, he’s close to immune to being scripted out of a game, hence his seven contests with 75+ rushing yards this season.

“Close.”

This profile isn’t perfect and with this foot injury rumored to be a serious issue, I fear that his utlity for this season could be coming to an end.

You’re holding for now, he’s only been ruled out for one week at this moment, but with an IR trip possible and a hisotry of missed time, I’m not exactly optimistic that we get the version of him that we’ve seen through 10 weeks again.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS (at MIA)

Not every team has to have a viable running back, and the Commanders are doing a wonderful job of reminding us of that.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the lead in terms of volume, but he’s doing nothing with i,t and with this offense spinning its wheels, there’s no way to play anyone attached to this team with confidence.

As their RB1, Croskey-Merritt has gone four straight games without a 10+ yard run, and it’s even worse in the passing game: he has two receiving yards across those games.

He had every chance to be a bellcow running back in an offense that needed it, but he’s failed to produce, and until we get a healthy Jayden Daniels back, what is the scoring ceiling of this offense, even in a good matchup?

Croskey-Merritt is my RB30, and I might be too high.

Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (at PHI)

And this is exactly why we never panic about the elite of the elite after a single poor showing.

Over the course of a season that runs 4+ months, players are going to have ups and downs; it’s the nature of the game. You’re not drafting star players under the pretense that they will be perfect, but with the idea that, more often than not, they’re going to give you a leg up on the competition, and I’d say Jahmyr Gibbs checked that box over the weekend with his third top-3 finish at the position this season.

He had his touchdown reception on the first drive, a design that had him running out of the backfield and demanding that the poor linebacker get help. The Commanders opted not to do that, and he scored without much issue.

The duality is back for Gibbs (3+ catches in three straight games after totaling five receptions in a three-game run), and with Dan Campbell assuming control of this offense, I think it sticks.

Detroit has had its bye, still has games against the Giants/Cowboys on the schedule, and plays their final fantasy game with weather concerns this week: could Gibbs be the highest-scoring flex player the rest of the way?

James Cook | BUF (vs TB)

James Cook fought an ankle issue for much of last week, but wasn’t on the final injury report, and it didn’t seem to be an issue with him catching five balls against the Dolphins (one reception in the month prior).

He did, however, lose a fumble inside the 30-yard line and posted a game without a 20-yard gain for the fifth time in six contests.

I’m not at all sounding the alarm in terms of worry because there’s no real competition for work. A bet on Cook is essentially a bet on Buffalo, and recent history has taught us that we make that bet.

Cook Scoring Splits, Last 17 Games

• Wins: 21.5 PPR points per game, 46% over expectations
• Losses: 7.6 PPR points per game, 26.4% below expectations

Compared to last season, Cook’s gain rate (88.6%) and chunk rush rate (13.9%) are both pacing favorably, trends that have led many to view him as an easy top-10 option at the position the rest of the way.

Javonte Williams | DAL (at LV)

We are nearing Thanksgiving, and Javonte Williams is the only Cowboy with 30 carries this season.

He’s been a little up-and-down of late (last five games: three top-10s and two finishes outside of the top 25), but his role is borderline elite, and that’s all you can ask for from your RB2. Williams has multiple red zone touches in every game this season (three games with at least five,) and the overall success of this offense should outweigh any efficiency concerns that you may have.

The Cowboys get the Commanders on Christmas Day and thus leave you open to unwrap a fantasy championship.

Jaydon Blue | DAL (at LV)

Sometimes we see rookies pick up more usage coming out of a bye, but when you consider that Jaydon Blue was a healthy scratch in Week 9 and has just 23 touches this season, you’re wishing beyond logic if you’re holding.

It’s Javonte Williams or bust in this backfield. If he were to get hurt, I’d expect this offense to lean even more into the pass game, thereby limiting Blue’s contingent value.

Redraft managers should have moved on a while ago.

Jaylen Warren | PIT (vs CIN)

If you remove a game against the best run defense in the league, Jaylen Warren has produced 5.9% above his PPR expectations this season, an impressive feat given the struggles of this offense that lacks creativity.

He’s caught multiple passes in every game this season and has over a dozen attempts on the ground in four straight, usage patterns that project well against a Bengals defense that struggles across the board.

Asking for another 20-touch, 158-yard game isn’t wise (what Warren gave us a month ago in this matchup), but his skill set opens him up to a productive afternoon regardless of the game script, and that puts him in the RB1 discussion this week for me.

I currently have him ranked as the top running back in this game, ahead of much bigger names like Kyren Williams and Breece Hall.

Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at MIA)

Jeremy McNichols got a season-high five carries last week against the Lions due to the blowout nature of that game and was easily the most effective of the Washington RBs on the ground.

Week 10 vs. Detroit

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 11 carries for 30 yards
• McNichols: 5 carries for 25 yards
• Chris Rodriguez Jr.: 6 carries for 16 yards, TD

Rodriguez got the short touchdown, but does it matter? If you’re chasing touches in this backfield, I guess that you’re simply playing out the string of a lost season and potentially tanking for draft position in 2026.

The Dolphins matchup is still a good one, even with them looking better over the past three weeks, but unless rules come down that ban them from putting 11 men on the field, I’d rather avoid this backfield altogether.

Croskey-Merritt remains the lead back, and that role keeps him on the back-end of rosters, while the other two deserve no consideration.

Jordan Mason | MIN (vs CHI)

Jordan Mason didn’t play a snap in the first quarter last week against the Ravens, while Aaron Jones was on the field for all 10 offensive plays and got his hands on the ball six times.

We knew Minnesota would lean on Jones’ direction in the passing game, but they told us last week they also want to start the game with the veteran, which makes Mason’s path to production awfully thin.

For him to hit your lineup, you need the Vikings to jump out to an early lead, but ideally not at the hand of Jones (why take Jones off the field if he is producing?). This gets even more difficult when you consider that J.J. McCarthy has struggled with consistency and hasn’t gotten Justin Jefferson as involved as Carson Wentz does.

That’s a fine needle to thread, and one I’d rather not deal with. I’m OK with holding onto Mason in a ‘next man up’ sort of way for an offense that needs balance, but asking him to provide standalone value alongside Jones is a serious leap of faith into an ultra-specific game script.

Josh Jacobs | GB (at NYG)

The Packers noted that Josh Jacobs was past his lingering calf issue ahead of Monday Night Football last week, and their usage of their star running back confirms as much (21 of Green Bay’s 22 running back carries in the 10-7 loss to the Eagles).

The offense struggled for much of the night, but even in a game like that, Jacobs gets his multiple red zone touches (something he’s done in every game this season) and scores (six straight games with a touchdown after his 11-game streak was snapped in Week 3).

At 3.8 yards per carry, we aren’t talking about the most efficient runner on the planet, but that’s kind of the story of 2025 at the running back position. He’s caught at least three passes in six of his past seven games, positioning himself as a script-agnostic running back that you can count on for low-end RB1 numbers every single week.

He’s been a top-10 running back in four of five games since the bye. With the Giants getting decimated by the past two top-flight running backs they’ve faced (Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey both cleared 30 PPR points against them), Jacobs is in position to post a big week and could be the answer to a loaded RB slate in DFS.

Kareem Hunt | KC (at DEN)

The Chiefs leaned into Kareem Hunt as their featured back in Week 9 in Buffalo with Isiah Pacheco sidelined (80.7% snap share with a 21-5 route edge over Braschad Smith), and he continues to keep virtually all of the work in close (six more red zone touches before the bye).

With all of that working in his favor, Hunt touched the ball 12 times, the seventh time in nine games that he’s been in the 7-12 range.

Reports emerged late last week that this offense wants to lean into an expanded role for Smith, and given that they appear locked into what they want from Hunt, that’s more likely to subtract from Pacheco’s bottom line.

That said, this does feel like shuffling chairs to some degree: this is a pass-oriented offense that has Patrick Mahomes scrambling at a career-high rate. If one back were to project for 15+ touches a week, I’d be ranking them (regardless of which one of these three it is) as a top 15 play at the position, but without any semblance of a weekly floor, I’m not comfortable playing any of them in this brutal spot.

Kansas City knows what Hunt and Pacheco are: if I had to gamble on one of these backs for upside the rest of the way, it would be Smith as the lesser-known quantity that thus has more room to impress.

Kenneth Gainwell | PIT (vs CIN)

Kenneth Gainwell is comfort food.

He’s there when you need him and doesn’t disappoint, but you’re not going to feature him unless something dramatic happens.

He was on the field for three more snaps than Jaylen Warren on Sunday night, but finished with 14 fewer touches and, honestly, I forgot he was active for a large portion of the game.

He ran a route on 96.2% of his snaps, and that means fighting for targets in an offense that lacks creativity and has a handful of players all running similar routes.

We will always have that Week 4 game in Dublin against the Vikings, where Gainwell touched the ball 25 times for 134 yards and a pair of scores, but with no more than seven touches in a game over the past month, he’s a handcuff and nothing more.

Kenneth Walker III | SEA (at LAR)

The Seahawks score 44 points and have a pair of rushing touchdowns.

Those rushing scores do not go to Kenneth Walker despite another efficient day at the office.

Rinse and repeat.

He has multiple red-zone touches in every game this season, so not all hope is lost, but the closer we get, the worse the outlook becomes. With Jaxon Smith-Njigba threatening to score from anywhere, those short-yardage touchdowns are really the only value looks for this running game.

Seahawks RB Valuable Touch Rates

• Walker: 3.8% of touches come inside the five-yard line
• Zach Charbonnet: 9.9% of touches come inside the five-yard line

With Charbonnet coming off of easily his best showing on the ground of the season (14 carries for 83 yards after averaging 2.9 yards per carry through the first two months), it’s hard to envision much of a change in this huge game.

I used to lean toward Walker when the touch count was split, wanting access to his home-run ability. But after a good game from Charbonnet against Arizona, I’m more inclined to chase the touchdown, thinking that he’s the favorite to lead in rush attempts and valuable opportunities.

Both come with a low floor, and that’s concerning enough to look elsewhere for your flex in a week where only two teams are on a bye.

Kimani Vidal | LAC (at JAX)

The script on Sunday night fed into the Kimani Vidal profile, and he pounded away. In the win over the Steelers, the 2024 sixth-round pick picked up 95 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. He had his moments of explosion (four runs of 10+ yards) and struggled at other times, but this is clearly his backfield and, given the desire for balance, I think projecting 17+ touches in games where LA is favored makes plenty of sense.

We can cross the Omarion Hampton bridge when we get to it, but right now, you have a locked-in RB2 who is facing the fifth-worst red zone defense in the league.

Kyle Monangai | CHI (at MIN)

Kyle Monangai got the short TD plunge to bail you out last week, and now it’s on you to not make the same mistake again.

I’m not calling D’Andre Swift Bijan Robinson, but that is kind of how I see this backfield, with Monangai being the Tyler Allgeier complement.

He played 39.1% of the snaps in the win and was out-touched 18-7 by Swift. We know Ben Johnson gets creative with the passing game, which is why I think this situation stays as is and doesn’t trend toward a committee.

Swift was targeted on eight of his 23 routes over the weekend, while Monangai saw one look on 16 routes. The rookie was shown respect with some early work, but this offense very much shifted in Swift’s favor over time (14-4 snap edge in Swift’s favor during the fourth quarter).

I don’t think he’ll be fully scripted out, and that’s an important note. Probably not this week, with only two teams on bye, but in future weeks, seven to 11 touches on a good offense might be enough to warrant flex consideration.

You’re keeping the man with an elite first name, but more as a depth piece than someone you’re planning on plugging in.

Kyren Williams | LAR (vs SEA)

Blake Corum is getting some usage, but this is still Kyren Williams’ backfield, and it’s not a debate (73% snap share in the first half last week).

Williams has scored eight times in nine games this season and 39 times in 37 games since the beginning of 2020, establishing himself as one of the league’s premier goal-line runners.

His success has been amazing this season, as he’s doing it alongside a thriving passing game that features a volume king in Puka Nacua and a generational red-zone threat in Davante Adams. The subtraction of opportunity rate has been more than offset by the sheer number of scoring chances MVP candidate Matthew Stafford is providing, and that’s the leading factor in why Williams is an RB1 moving forward.

The Seattle defense is nasty, and that certainly makes a downgrade reasonable, though not actionable. Williams typically resides just inside my top 10 at the position, and this week, he’s just outside, but you’re still playing him.

Seattle does own the third-best goal-to-go defense in the league, however, and that’s one of the primary reasons why I’m looking elsewhere when structuring my DFS lineups this week (check out the FREE PFSN Betting newsletter to see where I land!).

Nick Chubb | HOU (at TEN)

We finally saw the Texans wave the white flag on the Nick Chubb experience last week, and that means we can move on, guilt-free.

Week 10 Texan RB Participation Report

• Woody Marks: 75.9% snap share, 8 routes, 11.4 PPR points
• Dare Ogunbowale: 13.8% snap share, 3 routes, 0 PPR points
• Chubb: 10.3% snap share, 2 routes, 1.8 PPR points
• Brittish Brooks: 6.9% snap share, 0 routes, 0 PPR points

Houston seems to have committed to the rookie as their lead, a move that was weeks in the making. Chubb handled just one of their 10 first-half rushing attempts and really hasn’t shown much juice for a month.

It’s been a great career for Chubb, fantasy and otherwise, but there’s no reason to hold him any longer.

Ollie Gordon II | MIA (vs WAS)

With Jaylen Wright getting run and Ollie Gordon healthy, neither needs to be rostered.

De’Von Achane isn’t producing elite fantasy numbers because of the situation; he is a special player in a featured role. Should he go down, we don’t have enough evidence that the backup (whichever young back gets the first crack at it) would have either of those things, making that player a committee option in a bad offense.

Gordon or Wright will likely make my top 10 for handcuff running backs next season, should we get some clarity on the hierarchy, but as it stands for the rest of 2025, this is not a backfield I feel the least bit obligated to corner.

Omarion Hampton | LAC (at JAX)

Omarion Hampton had a pair of top-7 finishes at the position before getting hurt, and while Kimani Vidal has run well in his place, this team is clearly trying to make the most of a strong roster, and the rookie adds multiple dimensions to their upside.

Reports have surfaced that his window to return won’t open until after the Week 12 bye, and that’s a pain for fantasy managers. Still, their patience with the budding star increases the chances that he hits the ground running and with a Cowboys in Week 16, Hampton very well could bookend this season with elite fantasy production and give you a boost at the perfect time.

Quinshon Judkins | CLE (vs BAL)

The Browns are low on options, and that is more clear with each passing week.

Dillon Gabriel has shown some signs of growth recently, but Quinshon Judkins has four games this season with more than 20 carries, and this team largely looks content to keep the clock rolling on their season.

Judkins gets all of that work despite little help. For the season, the rookie is averaging 0.56 yards per carry before contact, and that’s resulted in him checking in under 3.5 yards per carry in four straight games.

He’s far from a high-usage player in the passing game (eight receiving yards across those four contests), and that’s what gives me pause this week as more than a touchdown underdog at home.

I’m not at all confident that the Browns can keep up, and that means a swarming Ravens defense around this limited offense. Judkins remains on the flex radar because there are only so many options who can get this level of work on a routine basis. Still, something like last week (3.5 yards per touch with limited touchdown equity) is what I’m expecting on Sunday.

Rachaad White | TB (at BUF)

Sean Tucker became the first running back to run for 50 yards against the Patriots this season, a surprising development on a multitude of fronts.

If I roster Rachaad White, I’m not too worried about it.

It was a weird instance, but White still played 71.2% of the offensive snaps and more than tripled Tucker’s route count in an offense that wants to move the ball through the air.

Bucky Irving hasn’t played since Week 4, and if we assume he remains sidelined, I have no issue with going back to White as a top 20 play. His fluency in the pass game was on display last week with five catches, and the Bills have had their issues stopping the run at times.

White would enter the week with a 12-14 carry and 4-6 target projection in a game that is projected to see 50 points put on the board.

I don’t care how you feel about White’s between-the-tackle vision: that profile is profitable more often than not in PPR leagues, and we are here to play the odds.

Ray Davis | BUF (vs TB)

There are some handcuffs that I’ll hold onto until the very end of the season, but Ray Davis isn’t one of them.

The backup RB has picked up 44 yards on his 24 carries this season, and if James Cook (two career missed games) were to go down, wouldn’t it stand to reason that the Bills would just put the ball in the hands of Josh Allen more?

You’re not cutting him without a plan to use the roster space better, but I would encourage you to at least look at who is available: I guess there is someone who has a better chance of making your lineup than Davis.

Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (vs NYJ)

That’s now two consecutive missed games with a toe injury for Rhamondre Stevenson, a player who is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry this season and doesn’t have a single 25-yard rush this season (83 attempts).

The veteran’s injury has forced New England’s hand, leading it to rely on TreVeyon Henderson, opening the door for Stevenson to lose volume moving forward.

RELATED: Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer

This coaching staff has shown a frustrating amount of loyalty to their RB1 this season despite three lost fumbles, and that makes it difficult to envision a world in which he is sitting on the wrong side of a committee once he is deemed healthy enough to return.

That said, the lack of efficiency means that any decline in volume puts his value at significant risk. The Jets made it clear at the trade deadline before Week 10 that they are in the business of looking past 2025, and that makes any starter facing them worth a look, but I’m not sure that Stevenson’s touch ceiling is much greater than 15 should he return this week, and that makes him a touchdown-reliant RB2 at best.

Rico Dowdle | CAR (at ATL)

Rico Dowdle has scored five times in his five games with more than 10 carries this season, a run he built on during a very impressive first drive against the Saints last week (seven touches and the score).

New Orleans actually bottled him up after that, and he finished with just 63 yards on 20 touches, but much like Quinshon Judkins in Cleveland, this is his backfield in a major way, and that is going to hold value, even if you have little faith in the offense as a whole.

Dowdle has touched the ball 18+ times in five of his past six games, and barring an injury, I see little reason to think we will see a change in his bellcow responsibilities moving forward.

You’re allowed to have game script concerns, but 6.2 yards per target this season isn’t bad, and with him holding a large percentage of the scoring equity in this offense, you can feel fine about plugging him in as your RB2 in all scoring formats.

RJ Harvey | DEN (vs KC)

Entering last week, RJ Harvey’s 200-touch pace was 17.4 touchdowns.

You deserve the blame if you started him last week, even in a good spot against the Raiders, and felt burned by his 3.8 PPR performance.

Sean Payton is motivated to extend Harvey because it would look good for his draft savvy, but even he saw through the scoring binge and kept Harvey on the sidelines for more than two-thirds of the offensive snaps.

JK Dobbins has run hard this season, but the door is now open in a similar what to what we saw happen for TreVeyon Henderson in New England.

A foot injury has the RB1 in Denver ruled out for this week and reports suggest that he’d be lucky to only miss one game. I had Dobbins ranked as my RB20 for this week when it was thought he could play: with him out, I have Harvey sitting at RB18, understanding that he should be able to absorb that same role with a touch more per carry upside.

I’m not calling my shot just yet, but you may have walked into a league winner simply by being patient through the first 2.5 months of the season.

Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs DET)

It’s been far from a banner year for Saquon Barkley (30.1% over expectation in 2024, but only two games at that level through 10 weeks this season), but a season-high 25 touches in the win over Green Bay on Monday night points to a healthy version of him, and that’s really all we can ask for.

The Eagles are built around the ground game, and even with their star RB losing more than a full yard in yards gained per carry before contact this year compared to last, he’s picking up 10+ yards on over 10% of his attempts, and that’s stabilizing his value.

The fall from an 82.9% gain rate to 73.8% is obviously concerning and lowering his floor, but better times should be ahead with three games remaining against bottom-6 pre-contact run defenses.

He may not be the value you were hoping for in the first round, but you could have done worse, and I believe the best days are in front of him this season.

Sean Tucker | TB (at BUF)

Sean Tucker now sits atop the RB rush yard leaderboard in terms of performances against the Patriots this season (53 yards), and I think that could earn him a little more run as this season progresses.

We know that Rachaad White isn’t an efficient runner (3.8 yards per carry for his career and 3.7 this year), so in the absence of Bucky Irving, why not give the pride of Syracuse a little more work?

Sadly, the path to truly mattering for us isn’t clear. White is clearly the preferred option, and Irving is working his way back. The impact of any Tucker growth is subtractive from those around him more than additive to his profile.

As long as Irving is hampered, Tucker is deserving of a stash, but once he falls to third on this depth chart, there really isn’t much utility to chase.

Tony Pollard | TEN (vs HOU)

Tony Pollard is threading a thin needle: used enough to eliminate any hope of a Tyjae Spears breakout, but not enough to matter in standard formats on any consistent basis.

Not fun.

He’s failed to clear 12 touches in four straight games and is pacing for a third consecutive season, with his production coming in at least 10% under expectations.

The Titans are averaging 0.78 red zone trips per game, a rate that, if sustained, would be the second-worst of the decade (worst: 2023 Jets, 0.71). I’m not sure if the situation or the player is more to blame, but it doesn’t matter: Pollard isn’t a top 25 RB in any matchup with Spears active and isn’t a top 30 option for me in this tough spot.

Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (vs LAC)

The offensive environment isn’t great in Jacksonville these days, and yet, Travis Etienne has been able to hold his own.

As the unquestioned lead back in this system, he has a rushing score or at least three catches in six of his past seven games, a level of versatility that lands you in fantasy lineups with regularity.

Brashad Tuten was viewed as a true threat this summer, but we’ve yet to see any real signs of that, and that’s largely why I think you should be comfortable in starting him every week.

This matchup results in a lowering of expectations (it’s been three weeks since the last time a running back reached a dozen PPR points against the Bolts), but that doesn’t knock Etienne outside of my top 20 at the position.

TreVeyon Henderson | NE (vs NYJ)

I made note of a TreVeyon Henderson carry early in the win over the Bucs, where he was barely tripped up on a pitch play that had the potential to be a long gain or maybe an 81-yard touchdown, fearing that we missed our chance to get the rookie breakout game.

He may have missed out on that opportunity, but he more than made good on the chances presented to him the rest of the way, finishing with 147 yards and two scores against one of the better run defenses in the league.

I was high on Henderson entering the week, as most were, but it was under the assumption that we’d see his fluidity in the passing game on full display with Tampa Bay largely stuffing between-the-tackle runs.

I still want to see that, but seeing him hit holes at full speed was even better. The game could have been even better if not for a chaotic sequence at the goal line to end the first half, where he was tackled on the doorstep three times before Drake Maye threw a fourth-down fade to Stefon Diggs, but we can’t pick nits.

Do we have a league winner on our hands?

That’s the hope. He’s battling a little knee injury on this short week, but I’m more monitoring Rhamondre Stevenson’s health. This coaching staff has made it well known how valuable the veteran is to them, and that means he’ll be involved to some degree when healthy, even if it skews all logic.

Henderson now has more 35-yard touchdown runs during his career than Stevenson, and I expect that explosion to win out in the touch department for a team that is now chasing the AFC’s top seed. Mike Vrabel’s loyalty to Stevenson sends a good message, but if this team thinks its championship window is open as soon as this year (and why wouldn’t it), my hunch is we’ll see a change at the top of the depth chart moving forward.

To be clear, that doesn’t mean this is an 80/20 split when all parties are healthy; something in the 65/35 range, like it was in their last three games together, makes sense to me, with the rookie leading the charge.

He’s to be viewed as a fringe RB1 when Stevenson is inactive, and I’ll be ranking him as an average RB2 until proven otherwise when his backfield mate returns.

If you stuck through the tough times, it’s time to buckle up for the good!

Trey Benson | ARI (vs SF)

Trey Benson (arthroscopic surgery on his meniscus) was eligible to return from injured reserve last week and, should he trend in that direction (initial timetable: 4-6 weeks), he profiles as the leader of this backfield.

Benson last played in Weeks 3-4, and he was one of seven backs with at least four targets and 35 rushing yards in both of those weeks. The others:

• Jonathan Taylor
• Saquon Barkley
• Christian McCaffrey
• Bijan Robinson
• Breece Hall
• Omarion Hampton

Bam Knight is averaging 3.3 yards per carry this season and dealing with an ankle injury. At the same time, Emari Demercado has flashed so far in November but was hardly used when Benson was healthy.

Arizona running backs ran 21 times for 64 yards (29 coming on one Benson attempt) when these teams met in Week 3. I’d keep expectations measured should he return, but I do think you have a reasonable asset moving forward (Week 17: at Bengals).

Tyjae Spears | TEN (vs HOU)

Tyjae Spears has caught 13-of-14 targets this season and had the Week 8 splash run against the Colts (41 yards), but with Tennessee unwilling to commit to him, there’s just not enough within this offense to land him in the flex tier.

I’m not holding out much hope for a role change, even though I believe it’s the right move. Tony Pollard is averaging 4.0 yards per carry this season and hasn’t seen any of his 119 carries gain more than 21 yards, and yet, Spears can wrestle the lead role away from him.

Neither of these backs is worth your time, and if you can avoid this team as a whole, your Sunday experience will be more enjoyable.

Tyler Allgeier | ATL (vs CAR)

With the game on the line, the Falcons elected to pound Tyler Allgeier and were rewarded for it.

The late touchdown drive caught the attention because it meant Atlanta was resting Bijan Robinson, but the first red-zone carry of the game went to Allgeier, suggesting this was more of a plan than anything else.

The backup RB has a career-high six rushing scores this season, five of which have come in his past six games. The touch count rarely overwhelms, the versatility is limited, and the scoring equity on this offense isn’t always there, but he’s been fine when called upon.

I still can’t rank him as a player I’m comfortable flexing. He’s little more than a 50/50 bet to clear six touches, and with his limited ability to make splash plays, you’re betting a little too much on a short score for my liking.

You have a top-20 RB should Robinson ever miss time, but without that happening, Allgeier isn’t going to crack my top 30.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (vs GB)

More information is generally a good thing. I’ve lived my life under this assumption, and I don’t regret it.

That said, when the additional information contradicts the initial, paralysis by analysis can occur.

What data points can we trust? Is there a split to consider? Have we learned anything of value?

I’m as guilty as anyone of overthinking these types of things, and I’m going to show personal growth here.

I don’t know who the Giants are going to run their backfield through, and I don’t think they do either.

Week 9 vs. 49ers

• Tyrone Tracy: 44.6% snaps, 4 targets, 8 touches
• Devin Singletary: 55.4% snaps, 2 targets, 10 touches

Week 10 at Bears

• Tyrone Tracy: 65.7% snaps, 2 targets, 15 touches
• Devin Singletary: 34.3% snaps, 3 targets, 11 touches

Weeks 9-10

• Tyrone Tracy: 56.3% snaps, 6 targets, 23 touches
• Devin Singletary: 43.7% snaps, 5 targets, 21 touches

I don’t think we know anything, and in a matchup against a strong defense like the Packers roll out, I’m not the least bit tempted to guess.

Tracy’s receiver background has him higher in my ranks than Singletary this week because of the projected game script, but my conviction is low.

And my interest … lower.

If you’re fielding a competitive team this week, the odds are good that you’re not relying on either Giant RB, and if you are, you don’t have any other options.

Woody Marks | HOU (at TEN)

We’ve now got buy-in from the team; it’s just a matter of whether this roster has the pieces to make it work.

Before last week, Woody Marks had never reached a 61% snap share, but in the comeback win over the Jags, the rookie was on the field for 78.3% of offensive snaps, a pretty clear sign that the Texans have committed to the fourth-round pick over Nick Chubb.

Baby steps.

He turned 16 touches into 81 yards and a touchdown last week, production that I’m cautiously optimistic we can get a repeat of with the seventh-worst yards-per-play defense on the other side and the road team favored.

Marks played through an ankle injury for the majority of last week, and that needs to be watched, but assuming all physical hurdles are cleared, this is lining up to be the first real chance we’ve had to play Marks and be rewarded for it.

It should go without saying that there is risk involved in counting on a running back behind a bad offensive line, but if Woody can make his mark, there are matchups with the Cardinals and Raiders waiting at a very opportune time (Weeks 15-16).

Zach Charbonnet | SEA (at LAR)

Zach Charbonnet’s two lowest snap shares of the season have come over the past two weeks, and while his touch ceiling seems to be 15, it’s his six games with 3+ red-zone touches that are driving his value.

We can argue all we want about the touch distribution, but the top five 26 finishes at the position work. I’m not sure that Charbonnet is anything other than average (4.3% chunk gain rate, 36th of 37 qualified running backs), but until that is reflected in his role, he deserves flex consideration.

The ceiling is low, and I worry about the floor against the third-best red zone defense in the NFL. In a perfect world, I don’t think you’re relying on any Seahawk not named Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

This week or any week.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown | PHI (vs DET)

Last week, A.J. Brown caught two passes on five first-quarter routes against the Packers before being shut out the rest of the way on one target across 19 routes.

I know that game was ugly, but we’ve got a pattern developing, and it’s disturbing.

For my basketball fans out there, Brown is being used like he’s more Kevin Huerter than Kevin Durant.

That is, over his past five games, the team seems to test the waters early and, if something connects, stick with it; if not, look elsewhere, much the way NBA teams treat microwave scorers rather than future Hall of Famers.

Over that stretch, in his two games with a splash play in the first quarter, Brown has gone on to total 42.1 fantasy points (24.7 expected) with a 23.8% target rate. In the other three games, we are looking at 15.3 fantasy points (31.8 expected) with a 20.6% target rate.

I’m not sure if this is a team thing or a lack of interest from Brown himself, but it’s a problem fantasy managers really can’t solve.

I could tell you that the Lions have allowed a receiver to clear 15.5 PPR points in four of their past five games or that the game atmosphere figures to skew toward the pass more often than usual for the Eagles, but if his involvement centers around making a play early, it feels like a true coin toss for if he’s going to be WR7 this week or WR37.

The Lions are quietly the fifth-worst red zone defense in the NFL this season, allowing a touchdown on two-thirds of opponent trips inside their 20, and that theoretically opens the door for a touchdown to save us should another inefficient day come about (57.4% catch rate this season).

I’m starting Brown as a WR2, but that’s more of a negative statement on the position than it is confidence in Philly’s alleged WR1. He’s rubbing elbows with a disappointing DK Metcalf, who gets a more favorable matchup (vs. CIN) and Jameson Williams in this game.

Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (at PHI)

Week 1 was the last time that Amon-Ra St. Brown didn’t catch 8+ passes or score a touchdown.

With Dan Campbell calling the plays, Detroit’s WR1 was in the slot for half of his routes, something that had happened just one time this season prior. That deserves watching, but we have plenty of proof that St. Brown can win at every level and that his connection with Jared Goff is among the best in the game.

Amon-Ra St. Brown lists his favorite Wide Receivers that he grew up watching via @StBrownPodcast 👀

– Odell Beckham Jr.
– Antonio Brown
– Julio Jones
– Calvin Johnson pic.twitter.com/naNThgPuL4

— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) November 12, 2025

In a tough matchup, he seems inevitable, so the fact that there are still games against the Giants and Cowboys on the schedule has a third straight 110+ catch, 10+ TD reception season well within reach.

How many players are you picking in August ahead of St. Brown in a redraft PPR format?

Brandon Aiyuk | SF (at ARI)

At this point, if there were good news, we would have heard it.

The Brandon Aiyuk (knee) timeline hasn’t been clear over the past month, and asking him to take the field is beginning to feel like a long shot, let alone proving he can post usable numbers for an offense that has a handful of other capable options.

If he’s hanging out on your IR and you wouldn’t otherwise use the free roster spot, there’s no real reason to pivot. Still, outside of that situation, it’s time to admit that you’re never going to feel good about plugging him in this season, and that makes him cuttable in redraft formats.

He’s a 27-year-old in a great system with a pair of 75-1,000-7 seasons on his resume: the asking price in 2026 will be interesting, and I’m going to go ahead and guess that I’ll be buying at a discount.

Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (vs LAC)

Brian Thomas Jr. missed last week with an ankle sprain as his disappointing season continues (50% catch rate with one touchdown).

There have been moments of volume, but with just one finish this season better than WR30, it’s hard to spin much optimism in this direction, as the connection with Trevor Lawrence simply isn’t there.

A fully healthy BTJ has been impossible to trust, which warrants caution in using him, even if he checks all the health boxes leading into this game. Lawrence has offered little upside when sped up this season, so the fact that the Bolts have seen their non-blitz pressure rate spike after a slow start to the season has been associated with more risk than reward when it comes to the profile of his WR1.

Calvin Ridley | TEN (vs HOU)

Calvin Ridley left Week 6 in the second quarter with a hamstring injury and hasn’t returned since.

The 30-year-old survived the trade deadline, something that wasn’t assured to happen given how we’ve seen competitive teams take a flier on this profile in the past, and is now stuck on a roster that is essentially in tank mode.

He’s signed through the next two seasons (there’s a potential out after this year, though there is more than $16 million in dead cap attached to it), so there’s really no reason to extend him for the second half of this season.

Does that mean we don’t see him again?

Doubtful, but his days of being ranked as a top 35 receiver for me are done this year, and if you’re never realistically going to feel good about playing him, he can be let go.

Every situation is different, but I would encourage you to at least be open to the idea, potentially in favor of teammate Chimeré Dike.

Cedric Tillman | CLE (vs BAL)

A hamstring injury had Cedric Tillman on IR since the beginning of October, but he was activated last week, and the Browns showed no hesitation in throwing him right into the mix (72.9% snap share, 33 routes run) against the Jets.

Two catches for 11 yards isn’t exactly a box score that the Tillman family is putting on the fridge. Still, it was good to see him operating at near full strength, especially with Dillon Gabbert throwing multiple touchdown passes for a second consecutive game.

Of course, nothing is certain in Cleveland. We could see a quarterback change, and we will likely see them struggle to move the ball effectively, regardless.

Season Rankings, Browns

• Points Per Game: 29th
• 3rd Down Efficiency: 30th
• Yards per Game: 31st
• Yards Per Play: 32nd

Even marginal gains would have this offense ranking among the five worst in the league, and that makes starting their WR2 with any level of confidence a long shot.

That said, it’s access to a long shot we didn’t have a week ago, and the schedule, after this week, includes games against the Raiders, Titans, and Bears. I’m not saying that Tillman is a must-roster player. Still, two of those plus spots come in the two remaining bulk bye weeks, and with him averaging 17.0 air yards per touchdown reception, color me intrigued for a dart throw in specific situations.

CeeDee Lamb | DAL (at LV)

CeeDee Lamb is back like he never left.

After an ankle injury cost him nearly a month, the star wideout has increased his target share in consecutive weeks, topping out at 33.3% in the Week 9 loss to the Cardinals.

George Pickens was great while Lamb was on the shelf, but there is no question as to who Dak Prescott is looking for first and most often. If you remove the partial game in which he was hurt, we are looking at a 119-catch, 1,669-yard pace for Dallas’s alpha receiver, marks that would rank him among the best in the game.

The Raiders haven’t squared off against many receivers that are at this level, but Michael Pittman is really the only receiver they’ve slowed this season. You can pencil in Lamb for another double-digit target game on Monday night, and that could make for some fun drama in Week 10 matchups that come down to the wire.

Chimere Dike | TEN (vs HOU)

Sometimes you see these rookie-rookie connections, and we might have one quietly brewing in Tennessee.

Chimere Dike was a fantasy asset for three straight games before the bye, and with the Titans simply playing out the string, there’s no reason to think that the fourth-round pick will see his role reduced moving forward.

• Week 7 vs. NE: Caught all four targets, 70 yards, TD
• Week 8 at IND: Caught seven of eight targets, 93 yards
• Week 9 vs. LAC: 67-yard punt return TD

OK, so the punt return last week pulled a three-target, five-yard performance out of the fire, but the general idea remains: this team is motivated to see what they have in the sparkplug out of Florida.

I don’t have him ranked as a starter this week, and I have a hard time thinking that’ll change anytime soon, but if you’re going to bet on a below-average offense like this, you want it to be on youth.

Dike should, at the very least, be rostered.

Chris Godwin | TB (at BUF)

You hate to see this.

Chris Godwin had a brutal injury (fibula) late last season. While he was healthy enough to return at the end of September, the injury has kept him sidelined for the past month, and we could be looking at another few weeks before he trends toward playing.

With Mike Evans on the shelf and Bucky Irving banged up, there are targets to be had, but a 29-year-old receiver who is coming off a full year of battling this injury gives me little confidence.

If you have an IR roster slot that isn’t going to be used elsewhere, I don’t mind keeping Godwin. Still, things seem to be trending in the wrong direction, especially for a team that very well could opt to ease him back when he is reasonably healthy in the hopes of having him close to full speed come the postseason.

Christian Kirk | HOU (at TEN)

The Texans were operating in a passing script for most of last week in the crazy comeback win over the Jags, throwing 45 passes against 22 runs, so surely their WR2 was at least involved, if not very productive, right?

Not even close.

There were as many Davis Mills targets to Christian Kirk caught by Jacksonville as the intended receiver, and he finished tied for fifth on the team in opportunities in the passing game.

The idea of adding Kirk was plenty logical by Houston this offseason, but the execution just isn’t there, and now we have a full-blown committee competing for looks behind Nico Collins.

Week 10 WR Committee

• Xavier Hutchinson: 27 routes, 0 targets
• Jayden Higgins: 26 routes, 7 targets
• Kirk: 24 routes, 3 targets
• Jaylin Noel: 17 routes, 4 targets

This offensive line struggles to protect, and the quality of target suffers as a result, so splitting one iffy role four ways is something I’d rather not do; call me crazy.

Dalton Schultz has earned at least eight targets in three of the past four games, making this one of the more concentrated passing games in the league.

Just because the WR2 role is open for grabs doesn’t mean you have to throw a dart.

Christian Watson | GB (at NYG)

Romeo Doubs suffered a chest injury during the game, which certainly factored in, but I found it interesting that with Matthew Golden sidelined, Christian Watson was on the field for 81.8% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps, pacing them with 35 routes run.

The offensive sledding was tough all day for the Packers, but he did have catches of 20 and 25 yards with a 32.0-yard aDOT.

Yes, he’s going to be pigeon-holed, but considering that he’s flashed a limited skill that feeds into how he’s being used, that’s all we can ask for. In his three appearances this season, 75% of Watson’s targets have come 15+ yards downfield: this is what he’s going to be, and why I think Matthew Golden can be cut.

For planning purposes, here’s how the Green Bay schedule runs out in terms of defensive rankings on deep ball efficiency (yards per attempt), noting that Weeks 12 and 14 are the weeks with four teams on a bye, where you may be asked to dig deeper.

• Week 11 at Giants: 25th
• Week 12 vs. Vikings: 31st
• Week 13 at Lions: 13th
• Week 14 vs. Bears: 32nd
• Week 15 at Broncos: 3rd
• Week 16 at Bears: 32nd
• Week 17 vs. Ravens: 14th
• Week 18 at Vikings: 31st

Watson isn’t going to be a lineup staple, but there are certainly windows to use him. There are only two teams on a bye this week, but if you’re replacing Michael Pittman or Chris Olave and want some upside, Watson sneaks inside of my top 35 at the position this week.

Cooper Kupp | SEA (at LAR)

A blowout win where the Seahawks were either scoring or turning the ball over isn’t exactly ripe with data points, but it is worth noting that, in the first quarter, Cooper Kupp, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Rashid Shaheed all ran six routes.

The Seahawks could go three-wide, but I would be shocked if this offense doesn’t lean into Shaheed’s game-breaking potential more over time.

Of course, on the week when they bring in a field stretcher, it’s Kupp finding a hole in the zone and exposing the Cardinals’ shaky tackling for a 67-yard gain.

At the end of the day, we are more than a month removed from the last time Kupp earned more than three targets in a game, and the team, with the NFC seemingly open, opted to add depth at the position.

I’m out on Kupp. I prefer Shaheed (this week and moving forward) if we are looking at secondary Seahawks, and would lean toward a Darius Slayton or Keon Coleman type if you’re rounding out your roster with darts.

Courtland Sutton | DEN (vs KC)

Despite a reasonable level of consistency from a year ago, where he caught 81 passes for 1,081 yards and eight scores (his aDOT is nearly identical to last season, and the quarterback remains the same), the production of Courtland Sutton has fallen off a cliff to the point where he’s on the wrong side of my Week 11 flex ranks.

He’s now failed to clear 30 receiving yards in three of his past five games, and one exception was Cowboys week, a holiday that every offense celebrates with the same passion as the more traditional holidays.

Sutton is struggling to earn targets at the rate he did last season, and it’s been most evident inside the 20, where he was targeted on 31.8% of his routes in 2021 (13.5% this season).

A strong early-season run inflates his season-long numbers, but as this team has evolved into a win-ugly squad, their WR1 is at serious risk of playing himself out of your starting lineup.

Sutton caught at least five passes and scored in both games against the Chiefs last season, but this is a different situation. Bo Nix has under 20 completions in three straight and has been held under 180 passing yards five times for the 8-2 Broncos.

I think this team needs to fail before changing their offensive scheme, and this looks a lot like it could be that spot.

Darius Slayton | NYG (vs GB)

Darius Slayton was onto something with 85 yards in the first 17 minutes last week (three receptions), but a hamstring injury limited his effectiveness the rest of the way.

The deep threat really hasn’t gotten anything going this season, regardless of who is under center.

From a process standpoint, his vertical game would seem to mesh with what Russell Wilson likes to do, making this an interesting DFS punt option should the veteran get the nod and you’re with me in believing the Giants are playing from behind for most of this game.

We have a 6.5-year sample of Slayton being a below-average target earner, and that has me willing to lean into the variance if we get the “moon ball” specialist playing quarterback. Either way, I’m not the least bit tempted to go this direction in redraft leagues.

Darnell Mooney | ATL (vs CAR)

This is getting ugly quickly, and I’m running out of patience.

Over the past three weeks, Darnell Mooney has turned 99 routes into three receptions, a rate that is almost difficult to comprehend. His 13.9-yard aDOT over that stretch introduces variance, but for 14 targets to turn into 43 yards isn’t in the range of outcomes for rosterable players.

The Falcons haven’t had a WR2 step up alongside Drake London, and at the rate he is making plays in traffic, I’m not sure there’s a need for one. With Kyle Pitts averaging 7.8 targets per game over the past month and Bijan Robinson checking in at just under 20 touches per game (six targets), Mooney is on the outside looking in at my top 45 receivers moving forward.

This isn’t a bad matchup, and there was a big DPI flag he caused last week on what was lining up to be an end-zone target, so if you want to hold for one more week, I’ll allow it.

But that’s as long a leash as I’ll give.

Davante Adams | LAR (vs SEA)

An oblique injury kept Davante Adams on the sideline down the stretch of last week’s dominating win, but all seems to be fine for the veteran receiver, and that means you’re starting him without a second thought, even in a tough matchup.

Since 2015, 678 players have earned at least 50 targets through the first 10 weeks of a season, and here are the players on that list who have seen at least 20% of those looks come in the end zone.

1. 2019 DK Metcalf: 23.4%
2. 2025 Adams: 21.8%
3. 2018 Marvin Jones: 21%
4. 2020 Adam Thielen: 20%
5. 2018 Eric Ebron: 20%
6. 2016 Dez Bryant: 20%

That’s a pretty eclectic list, and one that was fun to dig up for those who have been involved in this game for the past decade.

Adams will tie a career high for end zone targets in a season with his next one, something that feels insane for a player nearing his 33rd birthday who plays alongside maybe the best receiver in the sport.

For other players, I’d worry about the sustainability of this profile, especially given that Kyren Williams is more than capable of finishing drives, but Adams is a unique case.

He’s been a near lock for eight targets per game this season, with multiple end zone looks more likely than not. This is a matchup-proof player that has more reward potential than risk: he’s locked in as a top 15 option at the position every single week.

DeAndre Hopkins | BAL (at CLE)

We are more than a month removed from the last time DeAndre Hopkins cleared 20 receiving yards in a game. While the three targets on Sunday in Minnesota were a small step in a positive direction, he’s nowhere near involved enough to justify a roster spot.

If that changes, we will adjust. This team could use a WR2, but they don’t need it. Hopkins is the type of player you keep an eye on to see if Todd Monken ups his snap share as the playoffs approach. You can root for it to happen, though there is no reason to tie up a roster spot assuming that it does.

Deebo Samuel Sr. | WAS (at MIA)

Deebo Samuel had the four-yard touchdown grab last week to save you if you went this direction, but 29 yards on five targets wasn’t exactly an encouraging performance with Terry McLaurin (quad) sidelined.

Treylon Burks and Robbie Anderson were among the receivers fighting for opportunities from Marcus Mariota on Sunday, and Samuel couldn’t separate himself in the target department. That’s obviously a concern, but he does get another chance on Sunday against a below-average defense with McLaurin again spectating.

This season, Samuel has a 75% catch rate from Marcus Mariota, averaging 1.96 fantasy points per target. If we can carry over that rate and get him more in the 7-9 target range, you’ve got yourself a reasonable flex.

The matchup has him hovering around WR30 for me this week, but if he fails in this spot, he’ll likely be on the outside looking in at flex status in Week 13 when this team returns from bye, presumably with their WR1 back in the mix.

DeMario Douglas | NE (vs NYJ)

We all want a piece of this New England offense, but it’s a committee at the WR position, and I don’t see that changing.

Kyle Williams hit on the splash play last week, Stefon Diggs has been the most consistent target earner, and KayShon Boutte has had his moments.

Oh, and Mack Hollins followed up a nine-yard game with a 106-yard effort on Sunday because why not?

DeMario Douglas is stuck in this weird spot where he doesn’t really have a role. In Week 9 against the Falcons, he racked up 131 air yards, and on Sunday, he was responsible for only five.

It’s been more than a month since the last time he was on the field for even a quarter of the offensive snaps. That sort of rare usage means he not only belongs on your waiver wire, but that he shouldn’t be on the long list of names you look at when bargain shopping on a Sunday morning as you try to replace inactive players.

DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs DET)

Maybe I’m late to the party.

No, I definitely am.

Regardless, I’ve finally ranked DeVonta Smith ahead of A.J. Brown in a meaningful way.

The presumed WR2 has five of the seven best games by a Philadelphia receiver this season, a total he added to with a 4-69-1 performance in Lambeau on Monday night, making the most of the few splash play opportunities that presented themselves in that game (36-yard TD).

The Lions have fallen victim to some big plays in the passing game this season (Rome Odunze, Rashod Bateman, Marquise Brown, and Ja’Marr Chase have all made splash plays against them), and all signs point to Smith, not Brown, being that guy for the Eagles these days.

With this total pushing 50 points, I expect a fantasy-friendly environment, and that has Smith sitting safely inside of my top 20 this week.

DJ Moore | CHI (at MIN)

DJ Moore had a 40-yard end zone target that would have been enough to save his day, but he couldn’t secure it and ended the afternoon with nothing to show for his four targets against a shaky Giants defense.

The veteran receiver hasn’t scored since Week 3 and has been held under 45 receiving yards in six of eight games since, for 68 yards in the opener against these Vikings.

The rookies are coming.

Colston Loveland has produced in consecutive weeks, and with Luther Burden posting his highest snap share of the season, it’s possible that Moore doesn’t impact your starting lineup again moving forward.

I’m not there yet, but we are closer than I thought we’d be. Loveland and Rome Odunze are the two locked-in top targets for this offense, and I’m not sold that Caleb Williams can sustain a third, especially with the running game being productive.

Moore sits outside my top 35 at the position this week: I’d rather take my chances on exciting young players with upside like Tez Johnson (at BUF) or even Tre Tucker (vs. DAL), understanding I’m assuming a similar floor with a greater ceiling.

DK Metcalf | PIT (vs CIN)

The narrative surrounding DK Metcalf this week is way different if Aaron Rodgers makes a layup throw and allows his top receiver to cash in a 41-yard touchdown, but you have to play with the hand you’re dealt, and the fact of the matter is that this offense is prohibitive.

Can you tell me what Andrei Iosivas, Casey Washington, and Daniel Bellinger all have in common?

Outside of being names on your waiver wire, my guess is no.

They all have deeper receptions (15+ air yards) than Metcalf this season. The same Metcalf who has been the king of air yards in the past. The same Metcalf whose physical build is so off the charts that it inspired Pete Carroll to rip off his shirt and try to measure up.

That Metcalf has three such receptions as we sit here today, not far from Thanksgiving.

This matchup comes with a moral obligation to place the opposing WR1 inside of my top 20 at the position, so Metcalf is a WR2 this week, but I’ve seen very little reason to think he can be anything more than a fringe starter moving forward in this system.

Dontayvion Wicks | GB (at NYG)

Dontayvion Wicks shook off a calf injury to play two-thirds of Green Bay’s offensive snaps on Monday night, earning a season-high eight targets in the process (10.2 aDOT).

This is a thin profile at best.

Wicks is a capable player, but under a point per target in a game where Romeo Doubs got banged up and Matthew Golladay sat, speaks to the volatility of this situation.

This is a democratic passing game that ties up scoring equity on the ground. If you want access to two games with the Bears in December and have the roster flexibility to stash him, go for it, but outside of that, I’m still at least a week away from being interested in Wicks.

Drake London | ATL (vs CAR)

There was talk about a Christian Gonzalez shadow lowering our expectations in Week 9, and then, after the trade, Sauce Gardner was projected to stick on him last week in Germany.

Doesn’t matter.

It should be noted that not all of his production (15 catches on 22 targets for 222 yards and four touchdowns) came against those elite counterparts, but some of it did, and the rest came as the result of creative scheming that freed up Atlanta’s alpha pass catcher.

Michael Penix’s first two completions of last week went in London’s direction (gains of 13 and 30 yards), and the touchdown was the exploitation of a mismatch on a linebacker. He accounted for 72.7% of Atlanta’s receiving yards in the first half, further proving himself to be matchup-proof.

Where London stacks up among the best of the game for 2026 will be an interesting exercise to walk through: you’re in a great spot to have him, at cost, on your roster. I’m not the least bit worried about him turning eight targets into just 55 yards during the Week 3 meeting.

Emeka Egbuka | TB (at BUF)

The efficiency for Emeka Egbuka has been in the tank for the three games post-injury (13 catches on 34 targets), but he scored last week for the first time in a month and continues to look seasoned well beyond his age.

The rookie caught both balls thrown his way on the first drive last week against a strong Patriots defense that was fully aware of Tampa Bay’s limitations at receiver, the second of which was a 21-yard score.

Not included in his 115-yard showing on Sunday was a 22-yard DPI flag that he drew, more hidden yardage that projects well.

Egbuka is a victim of his own success in that he’s not demanding shaded coverage schemes, but it’s clear that he has the trust of the ever-aggressive Baker Mayfield, and that should give you more than enough confidence to start him weekly.

We are 11 weeks into this career, and I’m ranking him alongside future Hall of Famers in Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams.

Garrett Wilson | NYJ (at NE)

Garrett Wilson came into Week 10 with a nagging knee issue, dealt with a Justin Fields issue for much of Week 10, and then exited the game with that same knee issue.

After a catchless effort (three targets, 12 routes), Wilson was forced to the sidelines, and reporting on Monday has him looking at 3-4 missed weeks due to a knee sprain.

He avoided surgery, which is good, but are we really sure the 2-7 Jets are going to bring him back in December, with every win potentially hurting their future outlook?

You may have started Wilson for the last time this season. You should put him on IR now and wait, but you’d be wise to make other plans moving forward. If there’s a decision to be made about what to do with him in December, given that he’s expected to play, we can have that discussion.

George Pickens | DAL (at LV)

George Pickens earned 26 targets and caught 19 passes in his three games without CeeDee Lamb, numbers that aren’t much different than what he’s posted in the three games since (24 targets and 17 catches).

The quantity has been similar, but valuable looks have evaporated, which has significantly impacted his fantasy bottom line.

Pickens saw multiple end zone targets in all three games with Dallas’s WR1 sidelined, fueling him to average over three PPR points per target. In the three games since, however, he has a total of one such look and 1.7 PPR points per target.

Those are still viable numbers; they just don’t carry the same week-winning upside they once did.

It’ll be OK.

Pickens is still a lineup lock thanks to his well-defined role in one of the five most pass-heavy offenses in the sport. The week-to-week variance is there, but the floor is still high enough to justify playing him weekly as you hold out hope for the monster week.

This matchup is a great spot for him, and one where Dallas has a chance to produce a pair of top-15 receivers. Remember, even this version of Pickens is a win compared to what you expected when you drafted him nearly three months ago.

Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (at PIT)

Ja’Marr Chase has cleared 90 receiving yards in five straight games and is averaging a cool 15.5 targets since Joe Flacco took over a month ago.

Yep, he’s back.

There was a lot of underneath stuff in Flacco’s first three starts, but he averaged 18.5 yards per catch in Week 9 against the Bears, highlighted by a 36-yard grab. We entered the season thinking that Chase would offer an elite floor/ceiling combination, and he might well be WR1 in both of those categories for the remainder of the season.

Chase has cleared 2.00 yards per route in all four Flacco starts, a run that includes a 16-161-1 win over these Steelers. I’d be surprised if that volume carries over for the rematch, but fading him, even at the high price tag, is dangerous in DFS contests of any kind.

Jakobi Meyers | JAX (vs LAC)

In his Jaguar debut, Jakobi Meyers ranked third among the receivers in routes run, not an ideal role to hold considering that both Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter were inactive.

• Parker Washington: 30 routes run
• Tim Patrick: 22 routes run
• Meyers: 16 routes run
• Dyami Brown: 13 routes run

I think there’s a good chance of that in this spot, but we are very much in a wait-and-see spot with Meyers (his splash play last week was on a busted coverage). If he can carve out a niche role, maybe there is some PPR value to chase in the coming weeks (Arizona and Tennessee in Weeks 12-13).

That said, if you thought getting Meyers out of Vegas was going to be a boon to his value, I think that’s wishful thinking. We aren’t sure yet where he fits in the target hierarchy of this offense, and with the Colts and Broncos making up three of his final four matchups of the fantasy season, I’m not sold he’s a top-30 player.

Jalen Coker | CAR (at ATL)

I apologize if you burned your IR slot early on Jalen Coker at my recommendation; it wasn’t the right play.

The thought process behind that call was sound (open WR role on a bad team with a developing QB who will want to find trusted targets), but not every offense is going to develop at the speed we want.

Heck, in some situations, the offense might not develop at all.

Coker has turned 11 targets into 66 touchdown-less yards in his four games this season and doesn’t need to be rostered in even deeper redraft leagues.

He’ll enter 2026 as my favorite to win the WR2 role in Carolina, but where I went wrong in 2025 was assuming that such a role would mean anything to us.

Jameson Williams | DET (at PHI)

The usage differences for Jameson Williams last week compared to the first nine games of the season were clear, and we can only assume they were due to the change in play caller.

Results From Dan Campbell Calling Plays

• 10.3 aDOT
  • Weeks 1-9: 15.0
• 3.72 yards per route
  • Weeks 1-9: 1.43
• 21.9% target share
  • Weeks 1-9: 15.6%

What got me excited on Sunday was the target-cluster situation we saw. Williams wasn’t overly involved early, but then it seemed like Campbell wanted to press a specific button, and it worked.

Williams was targeted on five of Detroit’s next 11 offensive snaps, and if there is a package that Campbell feels he can weaponize like that, we could be looking at a “wheels up” situation for the rest of the way.

Speed is the only skill in the bag, but it’s certainly a dangerous one, and with this being the last Lion game with anything close to weather concerns, the best days certainly seem to be ahead of us.

Jauan Jennings | SF (at ARI)

Jauan Jennings’ ribs seem to be healing just fine as he has increased his PPR production in four straight weeks and has scored over two points per target in consecutive games, his first two instances of the season.

We will see where his role net out when this offense is healthy, but that’s very much a future conversation with this team struggling to get its WR room near full strength.

I could point to Jaxon Smith-Njigba clearing 20 points in this matchup a week ago, but he’s the best player in the game right now, so that doesn’t seem fair.

How does a 23.8 spot from Hunter Renfrow back in Week 2 sound?

Rick Pearsall got them for 19.7 the following week, and Calvin Ridley scored 18.1 in Week 5.

This isn’t a defense to fear, and if the Jacoby Brissett heater continues, this game has the potential to turn into a fun one.

I view Jennings as a stable WR2 with value similar to AJ Brown (vs DET) this week.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (at LAR)

We saw the Seahawks unveil a crazy game plan last week that no one saw coming.

Feature the best player on the field.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored from 45 yards out on their first possession, further cementing himself as fantasy’s top asset at the position and a real threat for 2,000 yards.

He’s not had five straight games with at least 18 PPR points, so let’s take a look at who else (WRs) has strung together an impressive streak of such performances in the NFC this season.

• Smith-Njigba: 5 straight (current)
• Puka Nacua: 5 straight (Weeks 1-5)
• Amon-Ra St. Brown: 4 straight (Weeks 2-5)
• Davante Adams: 3 straight (current)
• Smith-Njigba: 3 straight (Weeks 1-3)

The NFC West is built differently these days, and JSN is as much a part of that conversation as the other elite fantasy assets within the division. It’ll be interesting to see where his ADP lands this summer, but this versatile skill set certainly makes him as matchup-proof as anyone.

Jayden Higgins | HOU (at TEN)

“If you have three, you have none.”

That’s long been the mantra in fantasy football when it comes to committee situations, and I think it holds true for the WR2 role in Houston.

Jayden Higgins caught a late touchdown against the Jags and paced the secondary in targets, but all three were on the field at about the same level, which has me believing the Texans aren’t sure who they prefer.

• Xavier Hutchinson: 27 routes
• Higgins: 26 routes
• Christian Kirk: 24 routes

Higgins appeared to be the preferred rookie (Jaylin Noel: 17 routes) and comes with more target upside, but I’m not in the business of asking this offense to sustain a third pass catcher.

You can stash any of them if you’d like; there may be a time when simply being on the field is valuable, but counting on any of them to separate isn’t something I’m banking on.

Jayden Reed | GB (at NYG)

Jayden Reed underwent foot and clavicle surgeries in the middle of September, and the first half of November was the initial target. Still, without much in the way of confirmation, I’m skeptical that we’ll get a viable version of him any time soon.

Green Bay’s presumed WR1 scored in Week 1 and was injured on a play in Week 2 that was inches from being a score. It’s only a six-target sample, so do with it what you will, but three came 15+ yards downfield (sub 30% rate in each of his first two seasons).

My thought is that the team was aware of what Tucker Kraft could do in the short receiving game, and the speed of Matthew Golden was anything but a secret, thus opening up Reed to expand his route tree a bit. The names have changed a bit with Kraft on IR and Golden banged up, but the general idea remains that there is a relatively clean role for him to assume when ready.

The Packers play the Bears twice in December, matchups that give Reed the potential to crack my top 24 in those impact weeks, should his usage trend in the direction we saw out of the gates.

Jaylen Waddle | MIA (vs WAS)

Jaylen Waddle has made himself one of the most consistent fantasy assets at the position following the Tyreek Hill season-ending injury, and a struggling Commanders secondary doesn’t exactly profile as the type of unit to slow him down.

Ja’Marr Chase and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

That’s the entire list of players riding a longer streak of games with 80+ receiving yards than Waddle (three), and he’s actually done it in three of his past six. We got reports pre-game last week that the Bills were trying to acquire him, and Miami certainly made a point of making them know what they missed out on.

In the upset win, Waddle was targeted on four of Tua Tagovailoa’s first seven passes, a run that included a 38-yard score where even defensive pass interference couldn’t slow him.

Do I have my questions about the weekly upside of this offense?

I do, but not this weekend. Washington has allowed a receiver to hit 22 PPR points in four straight games and hasn’t held a leading WR under his season average since Week 2. Waddle is an easy lineup lock and would make for an interesting captain choice on the Showdown streets.

Jaylin Noel | HOU (at TEN)

Jaylin Noel earned four targets on his 17 routes last weekend against the Jags and even got a red zone touch. Still, with him ranking fifth in participation at the receiver position on an offense that largely struggles with consistency, I don’t see any value in stashing the rookie in redraft formats.

There might be something there for dynasty managers and potentially as early as next season, so don’t lose track of the name altogether.

Jerry Jeudy | CLE (vs BAL)

Well, well, well, what do we have here?

Jerry Jeudy entered Week 10 having turned 42.7 expected PPR points into 16.5 real-life ones, but against what is left of the Jets, 19.3 expected points yielded 19.8.

It was a clear plan to get their WR1 involved and engaged from the jump (two catches and three targets on the first drive), and it paid off. The 22-yard touchdown wasn’t exactly a work of art, but Dillon Gabbert went his direction in the end zone, across the field, and Jeudy adjusted to make the play against single coverage.

This is what we love to see!

But I’m benching Jeudy this week.

The Ravens are the opposite of the Jets in that their defense is getting better over time, and they quieted the primary Vikings receivers last weekend, instead forcing Jalen Nailor to beat them.

I expect a similar plan here, and that could be a reverting to the first nine weeks (zero top 30 finishes). If you’re pressed into flexing Jeudy, that’s OK, because the spread suggests we’ll see a high-dropback game for Cleveland. But would I rather play Wan’Dale Robinson against a zone-oriented Packers team on a short week, or Khalil Shakir against a pass-funnel Bucs scheme?

I would, and I’m not thinking too hard about it.

Jordan Addison | MIN (vs CHI)

Jordan Addison posted a 26.8% target share last week against the Ravens and gave us 6.5 PPR points with it.

The involvement was nice from a spreadsheet point of view, but unless you’re seeing something I’m not, starting a secondary receiver in a JJ McCarthy-led offense isn’t a comfortable feeling, never mind the fact that we might not know who the second pass catcher on this roster is after Jalen Nailor posted a 5-124-1 week against the Ravens.

I do think Addison sits behind only Justin Jefferson in terms of target hierarchy on this roster, but his value is more in splash plays than volume, and I have far more questions than answers on that front when it comes to this passing game.

Since returning from injury, McCarthy is 6-of-19 on passes thrown over 15 yards downfield with a pair of interceptions and zero touchdowns. We don’t have much proof of Addison as a volume target earner, McCarthy as a consistent passer, or this connection as a big-play threat.

I’m going to need at least one of those boxes checked before I get Addison into my top 30 at the position.

Joshua Palmer | BUF (vs TB)

Another week and another missed game for Josh Palmer (knee/ankle).

He hasn’t played since Week 6, and given that the team has deprioritized him since that wonky Baltimore game to open the season, there’s really no reason for fantasy managers to hold out hope for him.

• Week 1: 9 targets on 40 routes
• Since: 11 targets on 63 routes

For the season, 45% of his looks have come 15+ yards downfield, a profile that is going to carry plenty of variance in a perfect situation, let alone a banged-up secondary option.

I’d bet on “over” 0.5 impactful games moving forward for Palmer this season because of the potency of this offense, but you’re not going to see it coming, and you’ll lose ground by chasing it.

Your wire is littered with players who own a similar skill set but have a better role or better health.

Or both.

Justin Jefferson | MIN (vs CHI)

Justin Jefferson has been held under 50 receiving yards in three of four J.J. McCarthy starts. While the 29.3% target share against the Ravens is a step in the right direction, that’s a lot like victory lapping a child putting vegetables on his/her plate.

Until they are consumed, the mission is not accomplished.

I suspect we’ll get there sooner rather than later. The Bears have allowed the opposing team’s top receiver to exceed his season average in all five games since their bye, and with their offense clicking, this could turn into an NFC North shootout.

I’ve dinged Jefferson in the rankings (WR10), but that’s just a slap on the wrist. There’s nothing to do on your end besides ride this out and take comfort in knowing that he forced a 38-yard DPI flag last week.

Things like that don’t show up in the traditional box score, but they let you know that the big game might not be too far off.

Kayshon Boutte | NE (vs NYJ)

The hamstring injury sidelined Kayshon Boutte last week, and while there’s a chance he returns, you’re chasing ghosts here.

Boutte had a run of three straight games where he was a WR2 or better, and that’s great, but he was doing it with unsustainable scoring rates. In an offense like this that is structured around Drake Maye’s willingness to spread the ball around, the odds of a floor game far outweigh those of a ceiling performance.

The big-play threat (18.7 yards per catch this season) has scored on 16.1% of his targets this season, a dramatic shift from his first two seasons (4%). He’s a fine dart throw if that is the position you find yourself in, but with only two teams on bye and health question marks, there are likely better swings to take on your waiver wire.

Keenan Allen | LAC (at JAX)

Keenan Allen broke the all-time franchise record for receptions on Sunday night with a cheap flip play at the end of the blowout, and that’s a great accomplishment for him.

For fantasy aficionados, however, under 60 receiving yards in six of seven games with only one touchdown over that stretch isn’t cutting it. His three lowest target games of the season have come in succession during this winning streak, and while I want to bet on a bounce-back, there just aren’t many statistical signs that suggest it is inevitable.

Nothing in his profile (slot rate, snap share, aDOT, etc.) looks drastically different from his hot start; it’s more the players around him. Ladd McConkey is coming on in a big way after a sluggish start, Oronde Gadsden has been a godsend at the TE position, and the running game is settling in.

Allen projects as a player who will mean more to the Chargers than to your fantasy team as the postseason nears. Depending on your matchup, I don’t think it would be crazy to consider home run hitters (Rashid Shaheed, Keon Coleman, and Christian Watson types) over Allen this week: he’s a volume-reliant receiver whose role is declining.

Kendrick Bourne | SF (at ARI)

It was fun while it lasted, but Kendrick Bourne’s role has essentially vanished into thin air since the return of George Kittle, and I expect that to be the case moving forward.

Over the past three weeks, five of his seven targets have come 15+ yards downfield. These targets seem more designed to keep the defense honest than to actually produce chunk plays, not a surprise given the underneath playmakers on this roster.

This all-or-nothing role will be Bourne’s until Ricky Pearsall is at full strength, but I don’t think you need to wait to see that before cutting ties. This profile is available on the wire and can be added whenever your specific matchup needs a jolt of upside: there’s no reason to get too attached to any one such player and burn a roster spot weekly on him.

Keon Coleman | BUF (vs TB)

The back shoulder, 35-yard touchdown last week, was a great reminder of what is possible from Keon Coleman, but unless you think the Bills are going to get dominated for the entire game again, that’s not how this offense functions.

Josh Allen’s aDOT is pacing to decline for a third straight season, and his YPA on deep passes is on track to be his lowest mark since 2019. Coleman is an NFL-level athlete, but not an NFL-level receiver just yet, and that is how he can end up with three catches on eight targets during a game in which Allen completed 70% of his passes.

I’d bet on another splash play or two from Coleman moving forward, but pinpointing those spots is nearly impossible, and you’re going to lose more than you win in guessing.

We as an industry were high on the second-year receiver this preseason, and if we see Allen ramp up the aggression down the stretch, I could see myself jumping back on the bandwagon for 2026.

As for 2025, this isn’t a must-hold player, even after the long touchdown in garbage time against the Dolphins.

Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs TB)

Despite not seeing a first-quarter target last weekend in Miami, Khalil Shakir finished leading the Bills across the board in receiving stats (catches, targets, and yards). This role appears to be his for the remainder of the season.

The slot machine has caught 6+ passes in each of his past three games and has a 76.6% catch rate since the beginning of last season. The only pass catcher on this team that has been a consistent threat outside of Shakir has been Dalton Kincaid, and he’s now banged up and at risk of missing some time.

You’re not going to see him hurdling defenders or winning jump balls, but you will see precise routes and the opening of throwing windows. Nerds love watching that stuff (guilty!), and while you don’t have to enjoy it, your box score benefits as a result.

Shakir’s high floor keeps him as a strong PPR flex, especially in a matchup like this where the short pass could supplement the traditional ground game.

Ladd McConkey | LAC (at JAX)

Ladd McConkey has had one “down” game since September and is back to offering the type of floor/ceiling combination that we saw from him as a rookie.

His 12.2-yard aDOT against the Steelers last week was his highest of the season, and it resulted in his first performance of over 100 receiving yards in 2022. There is still plenty of target competition in his high-powered offense, but after taking a month to adjust, it would appear that the versatile McConkey is locked in.

The Jags have seen a WR1 clear 22 PPR points in three of their past four games, and while putting those sorts of expectations on a receiver with six targets in consecutive weeks isn’t wise, I think we can say with confidence that he is the WR1 in this offense, and it wouldn’t shock me if he finished as a WR1 in this spot (especially should Amon-Ra St. Brown be limited).

Luther Burden III | CHI (at MIN)

Hmm.

Hmmmmm.

Ben Johnson is starting to get comfortable in the Windy City, and with that, we get to pick apart the beautiful mind.

Luther Burden entered last week having never exceeded a 29.8% snap share, but in the comeback win, he was on the field for half of Chicago’s offensive snaps and had a 15-yard gain on the first drive.

Colston Loveland is carving out his role in this offense, and while a spike in usage from Burden would be less impactful for us because of the position he plays, he should at least be rostered after what we saw against the Giants, something I haven’t advocated for up to this point.

The best case is still an awfully thin profile. I think his best-case scenario in 2025 is still a wide range of outcomes — dart throw — but that’s more than we’ve had up to this point. Chicago has a brutal stretch of games the rest of the way, but that could actually work in his favor, as Johnson is aware that beating stout defenses with a million paper cuts is difficult to do.

I’m not close to considering Burden as a flex for this week, but could he get there with time? I think so. Could he pay off his DFS price tag this week with a big play or two against an aggressive defense?

I’ve seen worse gambles, and it opens up a lot on a slate that isn’t short on start power.

Marquise Brown | KC (at DEN)

Marquise Brown has four catches on 58 routes run in the three games since Rashee Rice debuted, and I think that’s what we can expect moving forward.

He had a pair of spike plays in Buffalo before the bye (gains of 33 and 40 yards), and that’s the outlook moving forward. If you’re rolling the dice, you could do worse than tie your wagon to Patrick Mahomes, but I’m not in any hurry to go this direction consistently.

It’s Brown over Tyquan Thornton if you’re throwing darts in Kansas City.

Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (vs SF)

The touchdown came late, and the Cardinals were out of sorts offensively for most of last week, but it’s not the first and it won’t be the last time that the Seahawks do that to someone.

The second-year receiver has earned double-digit targets and scored in consecutive games. There is no denying that his stock is higher with Jacoby Brissett under center than it ever had a chance at being with Kyler Murray.

This 49ers defense is taking on water in a hurry, and Harrison could certainly be the fourth receiver in four weeks to clear 17 PPR points against them. While the box score wasn’t overwhelming last week, the fact that he doubled his season count in end zone targets is certainly a positive data point when it comes to projecting ahead.

I’ve got Harrison ranked as a solid WR2 in all formats, sharing a tier with Rome Odunze and Zay Flowers.

Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN (vs KC)

The volatility of Bo Nix is one thing, but failing to run 20 routes in three of his past four is another, as it makes betting on him a high-risk parlay.

Marvin Mims has single-play upside that I do believe Sean Payton will solve with time, but we don’t have to wait. Roster spots are simply too valuable this time of year to wait on a profile like this, no matter how talented you think he is.

Denver’s offense is in shambles at the moment, and a sporadic QB is not exactly the type of atmosphere I target when filling out my bench for a playoff run.

Matthew Golden | GB (at NYG)

Matthew Golden sat out last week with a shoulder injury, a decision that came down to the wire. The hope is that the rookie speedster can make a quick recovery and add another dimension to this passing attack.

For the Packers, that’s huge. For fantasy managers, I’m not sold.

Golden has earned just 29 targets across his eight games and has one game with double-digit expected points. As Jayden Reed records, Christian Watson rounds into form, and Romeo Doubs ascends, the runway is narrow at best for the 2023 first-rounder.

I’m fine with ignoring him. Not because there isn’t talent in this profile or upside attached to this offense, but because the parlay of hitting both and starting him in a given week is a long shot at best.

For me, this version of Golden, even if at full strength, is a DFS dart more than a rosterable piece on your way to a redraft championship.

Nico Collins | HOU (at TEN)

Davis Mills helped Nico Collins see his target share rise for a third consecutive game (34.1%), and five end-zone targets are great to see, even if some came under extreme duress, as is customary for any Texans quarterback.

I think we are back on track with Collins owning top 10 upside (100+ air yards in three straight and five of seven), and while I have my overarching questions about this offense, a date with the Titans can certainly calm those concerns for the short term.

Collins is the only team-leading WR to be held under his season average this year by the Titans: I’ll happily bet against them doing it a second time, even with the bye week to prepare.

Parker Washington | JAX (vs LAC)

Parker Washington has posted his best two games of the season over the past two weeks, an impressive string of production given the circumstances.

In Week 9, Brian Thomas was active for the most part, and in Week 10, not only was the star WR inactive, but Jakobi Meyers was introduced to the mix.

It didn’t matter. Washington cleared a 27% target share and 80 air yards in both games. His catch rate fell off a cliff in a tough matchup last week against the Texans, but he saved things with a toe-tap touchdown in addition to a 72-yard punt return score.

I’m worried that the more comfortable Meyers gets in this system, the more of a timeshare occurs between the two similar players. Washington deserves to be rostered, but I don’t think you can start any members of this passing game with confidence, as Trevor Lawrence works through a tough season (59.5% completion rate with as many touchdown passes as interceptions over the past month).

Pat Bryant | DEN (vs KC)

It’s hard to produce as a rookie.

It’s hard to produce next to Bo Nix.

It’s hard to produce on a sub-60% snap share and 15.1 routes per game.

Any of those situations by themselves is a hurdle that few can clear, never mind all three being wrapped into a single profile. Pat Bryant has gained over 15 yards on 60% of his receptions over the past three games and led the Broncos in receiving yards last week against the Raiders.

And that’s the most deceptive stat I’ll type this week.

Those two stats are true, but we are looking at a five-catch sample. I’m encouraged and would encourage you to scoop up dynasty shares where possible, but in the scope of redraft leagues, Bryant has no business being on your roster.

Puka Nacua | LAR (vs SEA)

Puka Nacua has twice as many touchdowns as end zone targets this season and has surpassed his point expectancy in six of eight games this season.

Simply put, the man is a machine, and the Rams are well aware of it.

His slot usage has declined in three straight games, but you’d never know it based on the fantasy point totals. If this Davante Adams oblique injury lingers, Nacua’s path to be a top 5 receiver this week, even in a tough matchup, becomes clear.

As it is, I can’t imagine ranking him (career: 19.0 PPR PPG) as anything but a WR1 with an elite floor/ceiling combination.

Quentin Johnston | LAC (at JAX)

The splits for Quentin Johnston pre-/post-injury are notable, especially with a pair of his teammates thriving in expanded roles.

Weeks 1-5: 22.7% target share, 12.1 aDOT, 30% deep target rate

• Weeks 7-10: 15.8% target share, 7.0 aDOT, 22.7% deep target rate

Johnston is more of a splash-play option in this receiver room, but with a reduction in his role, he has come up with fewer air yards per target — a deadly combination.

This matchup doesn’t really worry me (30th in pass TD% since October 1), and if Oronde Gadsden misses this game, he’ll elevate in my rankings, but for right now, I’ve got him outside of my top 30 receivers, behind “safer” players like Khalil Shakir.

Rashee Rice | KC (at DEN)

Rashee Rice has 24 touches and three touchdowns in his three games since returning, and Andy Reid is clearly interested in making up for lost time.

He’s getting the scripted looks early (eight first-quarter targets), is dangerous on extended throws (six catches on seven targets of 10+ yards), and is featured in close (seven red zone touches).

He does it differently than Puka Nacua, Drake London, or Ja’Marr Chase, and that’s OK. Patrick Mahomes is comfortable with his fate being in Rice’s hands, and that’s all that matters.

There aren’t five receivers in the game that boast a better volume/skill combination moving forward, and that means you’re going to continue to get great return on an investment that took some conviction back in August.

Rashid Shaheed | SEA (at LAR)

If only the Cardinals could have shown a little bit of fight over the weekend.

In a landslide victory for the Seahawks, we learned nothing about how they want to operate in this post-Rashid Shaheed trade world.

My hunch is that they will look to leverage his speed in a major way. They gave up two draft picks (fourth and fifth rounders this year) for the right to feed into this Sam Darnold big year, and Shaheed, on paper, looks like a perfect fit.

I’m not going to recommend playing him until we have a little larger sample, but asking him to out-earn Cooper Kupp and Tory Horton isn’t asking for much. I’m hopeful that he can be a West Coast Jameson Williams for the stretch run.

Rashod Bateman | BAL (at CLE)

Rashod Bateman saw a slant against pressure last week, and that got the Ravens to the one-yard line.

That was his only catch in the win over the Vikings, and I think that’s a pretty good representation of his profile: you’re hoping that he can make what little usage he gets pay off in a big way.

More often than not, you’re left wanting more.

Bateman has turned his 31 targets this season into just 194 yards, and the big shots to him just aren’t there. The Ravens don’t need a WR2 with Zay Flowers and the tight ends handling the majority of targets, so you can cut ties here and look for help elsewhere.

Even a player like Keon Coleman isn’t perfect, but he holds a skill set that is in demand in Buffalo. I’m not sure what Bateman brings that is unique to this offense, and it would appear, based on usage, that the team agrees with me.

Rome Odunze | CHI (at MIN)

I believe that you can tell a lot from first-quarter data.

The best teams will distance themselves from the pack as the game goes on, but those first 15 minutes give us a look at what the team drew up during practice and where they identified mismatches.

Over the past three weeks, Rome Odunze has more first-quarter targets than DJ Moore and both Bear TEs combined, something that I don’t think is an accident.

On Sunday, he was responsible for four of Caleb Williams’ first seven completions (66 yards), and Ben Johnson is constantly scheming up ways to leverage this emerging star.

There was a 38-yard end zone target in the blustery conditions last week that just missed, and a fade (set up by some precise Odunze route running drawing a DPI flag) attempt.

Neither paid off, but there is a clear focal point of this attack.

The Vikings have had their hands full with featured WRs of late (DeVonta Smith, Ladd McConkey, and Amon-Ra St. Brown have all cleared 18.5 PPR points against them since the Week 6 bye), and that’s the company I think this kid has a chance of keeping.

Odunze scored 15.7 points in the season opener in this matchup: sign me up for the “over” in the rematch.

Romeo Doubs | GB (at NYG)

Romeo Doubs missed time on Monday night with a chest injury that was obviously pulling at him after a missed target, but this wasn’t exactly lining up to be a banner game prior.

• 23 routes
• 4 targets
• 5 yards

You see, the problem is that the Eagles had the same impression as we did: this is the head of the snake. Not that the Green Bay offense can’t function without Doubs, but that, especially with Tucker Kraft sidelined, he’s their clear-cut top target.

In some respects, that’s good news. It means we were right with our analysis. In most respects, it’s bad news as Jordan Love doesn’t profile as the type of quarterback who is going to force-feed anyone.

Doubs will remain my WR1 when it comes to ranking the Packers, but he’s more of a flex, presuming health, for fantasy managers. Christian Watson is the most interesting receiver in this room, given the upside he’s shown when healthy, but his range of outcomes is always going to be wide.

I’m looking at Doubs in a very similar way to how I view Jauan Jennings: the top wide receiver on his NFL team by default, but not a must-start in our game.

Stefon Diggs | NE (vs NYJ)

Stefon Diggs has now scored in three straight games, his first such streak since Weeks 11-13 of 2022 with the Bills, and he looks great in doing it.

The explosive plays aren’t really a part of the equation any more (we are a month removed from his last 25-yard reception and in a two-year run that has seen him rip off one 40-yard gain), but as long as Drake Maye continues to make defenses sweat on those long passes to other players, Diggs’ savvy in the short area (8.6-yard aDOT) projects as sustainable.

He was featured from the jump last week (38.9% first-half target share), and if this TreVeyon Henderson breakout is real, then there may be even more to the profile of New England’s WR1.

Back in Week 3, the upset win in Buffalo, Diggs turned six play-action routes into five catches and 77 yards. Maybe pillow-soft deep ball stretches the opponents vertically, and if the running game is now explosive, those middle crossing routes are Diggs’ for the taking.

He’s a top-20 receiver for me on this short week, ranking ahead of DK Metcalf and A.J. Brown, to name a few.

Tee Higgins | CIN (at PIT)

Tee Higgins has seen 8+ targets in three of four Joe Flacco starts and has scored four times as the veteran QB has vaulted him back into the top 20 after he wasn’t a top 50 receiver in three of four September games.

There are levels to this.

Flacco is leading a concentrated offense, but not one lacking hierarchy. Ja’Marr Chase seems to have double-digit targets preloaded at this point, and while that still leaves meat on the bone for Higgins, it’s not bulletproof (Week 8 vs Jets: two targets on 33 routes).

In the Week 7 meeting, Higgins posted his second-best yards per route rate of the season and saw 17.7% of his routes come out of the slot, his second-highest mark of this season.

Higgins has been a top-15 receiver in two of his past three games, and I think his mean projection is less impacted by any Flacco regression than Chase. I’d bet that his Week 9 performance against the Bears in that crazy back-and-forth game (7-121-2) is easily his best of the season, but I do think there’s a strong floor at play here.

Bank on 7-9 targets and 70-ish yards, understanding that an elite athlete like this in a pass-happy offense always has the potential to post top-shelf numbers.

Terry McLaurin | WAS (at MIA)

Terry McLaurin (quad) has appeared in just one game since Week 3 and hasn’t earned more than four targets in a game since Week 2’s loss at Green Bay.

I still think it’s a touch early to call this a lost season for those who drafted Washington’s WR1, but things are certainly trending that direction with the bye coming up (Week 12) and some difficult matchups after that, should he be close to full strength (Broncos, Vikings, and Eagles).

There is, however, hope that he’s a league winner. If you’re in the playoff hunt and roster McLaurin, you obviously have a talented team, and that would have been holding onto hope. The Commanders get the Cowboys on Christmas Day, a Week 17 game that, as things stand right now, could have Jalen Hurts under center.

I still think a reasonably healthy McLaurin is the top pass catcher on this roster, and we know this defense is struggling to the point that the offense needs to score in bunches to be competitive.

If afforded the luxury, I’d love to wait to see a healthy game before flexing him so that I won’t be ranking him as a top 30 play this week should he find his way onto the pitch this weekend.

Like that?

I’m so cultured.

Tetairoa McMillan | CAR (at ATL)

A late add to the Week 10 injury report with a hamstring injury wasn’t ideal. Still, Tetairoa McMillan played through the inconvenience and posted a target share north of 30% for the third consecutive week.

A large piece of cake is only tasty if the cake is any good in the first place, and that’s not where this Bryce Young offense settles. The elite target share has yielded just two top-20 weeks for McMillan, a hit rate unlikely to change moving forward given this offense’s limitations.

If Carolina is competitive, they are running the ball at a high rate, and if not, the offense isn’t staying on the field long enough for its WR1 to project well.

Atlanta’s defense has come on tough times of late (three straight games where an opposing WR has scored 18+ PPR points against them) and that’s enough to keep McMillan at the back end of your starting lineup. Still, you’re playing him with the understanding that the floor is lower than receivers in a similar range (i.e., Wan’Dale Robinson and Khail Shakir).

Tory Horton | SEA (at LAR)

A groin injury sidelined Tory Horton last week, and while the rookie has shown some splashes of pro-ready skills, the path to mattering in 2025 is simply too crowded to bet on after the Rashid Shaheed acquisition.

Cooper Kupp is still showing signs of productivity, thus making Horton an unproven fourth option in the passing game of a good team that plays with a lead plenty. I’d keep Horton’s name on your radar for next year, and the fifth-round pick is certainly a viable dynasty stash, but he’s roster clutter for the remainder of this season.

Travis Hunter | JAX (vs LAC)

Adding an injury to Travis Hunter’s profile feels inevitable and unfair.

Two weeks ago, news emerged that a knee injury had landed the talented rookie on IR, and we got news on Tuesday that the dual threat’s season is over.

Weekly Participation Report

• Week 1: 27 routes, 6 defensive snaps
• Week 2: 27 routes, 39 defensive snaps
• Week 3: 27 routes, 41 defensive snaps
• Week 4: 23 routes, 9 defensive snaps
• Week 5: 26 routes, 25 defensive snaps
• Week 6: 44 routes, 22 defensive snaps
• Week 7: 51 routes, 12 defensive snaps

This will be a situation to watch as the offseason comes into focus. Not for the health; everything on that end seems fine, but for reports coming out of Jacksonville about how they felt this season went.

Does the injury force their hand in picking a side of the ball to focus on? What does the WR room look like?

This partial rookie season has left me with more questions than answers, but the asking price won’t be nearly as high as it was this August.

Tyler Lockett | LV (vs DAL)

Tyler Lockett led the Raiders in catches, targets, and receiving yards in Denver on Sunday night, Vegas’ first game sans Jakobi Meyers.

That’s running about as hot as you can hope … he didn’t reach 10 PPR points.

His 58.6% snap share was his second-highest of the season, and he should sustain a role, but it’s plenty reasonable to think that the 2-7 Raiders lean into their youth at the position. Even if that doesn’t happen, I’m comfortable in guessing that there aren’t many more 12% target-share games moving forward for Brock Bowers.

My boss asked me last week if a Raider receiver needed to be included in the weekly preview. My answer was no then, and it is no now, but I like my job, so I’ll throw him a bone.

Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (vs GB)

If you answered “Wan’Dale Robinson” to the “who leads the league in receptions over the past two weeks” question, you deserve a prize.

Technically, if you answered “Drake London,” you do too (tied at 15), but you get the idea.

Robinson is finally fulfilling the role we penciled him in for this preseason (sub-6-yard aDOT in both of those games), and that elevates his floor to a point where he’s in the PPR flex conversation.

That profile doesn’t change dramatically if Russell Wilson is under center, as I view it more as an opposing-defense stat than anything else.

If the opponent is content to give up short passes, Robinson is a threat to reach 15 PPR points. If not, we are looking at a player with as low a floor as any at the position.

Green Bay rarely blitzes and looks to take away the big play, something that leaves plenty of high-percentage, short-yardage targets for the taking. They own the fifth-lowest opponent aDOT this season, and with them as a touchdown-plus road favorite, a high dropback game seems inevitable, thus raising the Robinson projection.

He’s my WR33 this week, making him a flex play in deeper leagues.

Xavier Legette | CAR (at ATL)

I’ve held out hope for the Panthers’ pass game as long as I could, but I’m done.

Tetairoa McMillan is a special prospect that this team is hoping to build around, and outside of that, there’s nothing really to chase. Against the Saints last week, all other members of this offense turned 15 targets into 64 yards, production that would be hard-pressed to hit a fantasy lineup if it were all concentrated onto one person, never mind the fact that six players split that role in Week 10.

It might be too early to call Xavier Legette a lost cause in dynasty leagues. Still, the former first-round pick will enter 2026 on awfully thin ice, even in dynasty formats where patience is a virtue at the WR position.

Xavier Worthy | KC (at DEN)

Xavier Worthy’s yards per route run is down 25.2% since Rashee Rice returned from suspension, and he’s yet to earn a single end zone target across those three games (98 routes).

With Rice in the mix, Travis Kelce healthy, and Tyquan Thornton at least around (13 routes run in two of the three Rice games), the floor/ceiling math is trending away from Worthy.

That’s not to say that Kansas City’s speed demon is a complete fade (he handled an end-around on their fourth offensive snap in Week 9 against the Bills), but I do think the days of starting him with confidence are gone.

He’s a player I’m flexing when my matchup calls for an infusion of upside and the opponent is at least neutral.

This isn’t that. Worthy sits outside of my top 30 at the position this week, and I’d rather look in the direction of boring high-floor options (Khalil Shakir types).

Zay Flowers | BAL (at CLE)

The ceiling isn’t what we saw in that crazy Week 1 loss in Buffalo, but Zay Flowers has cleared 11 PPR points in all three games during this winning streak and in five of six overall, giving the type of high floor that we weren’t sure would ever materialize in this offense.

He’s an analytics dream.

Through 10 weeks, 59.1% of his targets have either come within five yards of the line of scrimmage or over 20 yards down the field.

That gives him access to more projectable upside than the Wan’Dale Robinson types, while maintaining the floor we all love. The Browns have shut down receivers in bad offenses and coughed up 16.5+ to a WR in each of their past four against a respectable opposition.

This matchup certainly falls into that bucket, and you should feel great about clicking Flowers into your lineup as your WR2.

Tight Ends

AJ Barner | SEA (at LAR)

I’m fine with explaining away AJ Barner’s goose egg last week by way of the blowout, but what are you going to use to excuse seven catches on 65 routes during this four-game win streak?

The four-score-in-four-games run was nice earlier this season, but we are beyond that, and with the Rashid Shaheed acquisition, I think we can safely move targets from the TE position as a whole to the WR room.

The Seahawks are great, but that doesn’t mean you blindly roster a player on their team over players with more upside, even if they are the TE2 on their own roster (Isaiah Likely and Michael Mayer).

Brenton Strange | JAX (vs LAC)

Brenton Strange saw his window to return (quad) open this week, and that means we get one more warm body on the TE streaming radar.

Strange caught six passes in two straight games before suffering the injury in Week 5 against the Chiefs, and while that volume is valuable, the short targets have gotten a little more difficult to earn in Jacksonville during his absence.

Parker Washington has stacked together a few productive weeks, and Jakobi Meyers figures to be more involved as his comfort level with this system rises.

Brian Thomas Jr. being dinged up and Travis Hunter done for the season means that there are opportunities to be had for a Jags team that is a home underdog this weekend.

If Strange is available, I don’t mind a speculative add to leverage a favorable upcoming stretch. Playing him this week after the extended absence is a bit optimistic for me, however.

Brock Bowers | LV (vs DAL)

Make it make sense.

• Week 9: 80% snap share, 39.6% slot rate, 7.0 aDOT
• Week 10: 82.8% snap share, 39.6% slot rate, 10.0 aDOT

Variance happens, so I wouldn’t expect identical numbers in those games, but 43.3 in the former and 3.7 in the latter?

Bowers is healthy, and that’s great, but all pass catchers are, to some degree, dependent on the play they get under center, and Geno Smith is a hot mess right now.

I don’t think the Jakobi Meyers trade was to blame for the dud performance, though I do think there is something to be said for the increase in two-tight-end sets, which creates more competition for similar targets.

Of course, if the Raiders are going to average 5.3 yards per pass and go scoreless for the final 48 minutes of the game, it’s going to be an uphill climb for everyone. This matchup is the direct opposite of what Vegas saw in Denver (even without Patrick Surtain) on Thursday night.

There is no actionable here. You can’t escape the Smith vortex, and we have proof that Bowers can produce despite limitations under center. The rest-of-season projection is obviously somewhere between the best player in the sport and not a top 15 option at the position, but I don’t think this is the last violent swing in production that we see.

If you’re a matchups person and you still can trade, you’re praying for another spike game on Monday night and pivoting. The Raiders get the Browns, Chargers, Broncos, Eagles, and Texans from Weeks 12-16, a run that could see them post another game (or two or three) like what we saw this past week.

Bowers is great, but he is still human.

Cade Otton | TB (at BUF)

Cardio Cade Otton is an empty-calorie route runner when the team around him is healthy, and I stand by that.

It’s simply not the case these days, and really might not be for the remainder of the season.

Otton vacuumed in nine of 12 targets in the loss to the Patriots, a level of efficiency we can bank on with an aDOT below 5.5 yards in four straight contests. He hasn’t scored this season, and that’s not an accident (zero end zone targets and one red zone target on 25 routes), but for those in PPR formats, he’s a real threat to lead the position in receptions every week until told otherwise.

He’s a top-10 tight end this week, and I’d listen to the argument that pushes him up the third tier at the position and lands him closer to TE6 for Week 11.

Chig Okonkwo | TEN (vs HOU)

Chig Okonkwo turned 19 targets into four yards when he faced the Texans back in Week 4, and while I’m projecting growth from there, there’s no reason to be digging this deep at the position.

We’ve seen some flashes of efficiency from Okonkwo and Cam Ward, but it’s sporadic and rarely at a high volume. With a 4.6-yard aDOT as a part of an offense that rarely visits scoring position, there isn’t a realistic path to quality or quantity.

It’s hard to be completely off the streaming radar at the tight end position, but I’d really have to be backed into a corner to plug-and-play a tight end playing for a team that I’m not sure flirts with 20 points.

Cole Kmet | CHI (at MIN)

Cole Kmet was healthy and led the Bears’ TE room in snaps, but Colston Loveland drew the start and doubled him up in targets.

There’s no reason to be invested here. Ben Johnson has things moving in the right direction, and that direction is away from Kmet (one catch on no more than two targets in each of his past four games).

Wanting a piece of this offense is logical; doing it this way is not.

Colston Loveland | CHI (at MIN)

The Bears had Colston Loveland on the field to start the last game, and while the 9.5 fantasy points aren’t swinging matchups like his breakout game in Cincinnati did, it’s enough to assume that he continues to see this role expanded.

I’m encouraged by the upside. So few players at the TE position offer a realistic floor, so the fact that Loveland has earned multiple deep targets in two straight games says to me that this team trusts him to impact the game in a major way.

Caleb Williams plopping this Sail route to Colston Loveland pic.twitter.com/pWBaqJhqvT

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) November 12, 2025

The short targets should be there weekly, and if the downfield usage sustains, especially against an aggressive defense like this that could leave a linebacker in an awfully uncomfortable matchup, we are looking at a top 10 player the rest of the way.

I’ve got him ranked as such: he’s not Tyler Warren, but he is awfully impressive and we have a large enough sample of Ben Johnson elevating players like that with time.

Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs DET)

Dallas Goedert caught three passes in a five-play stretch on the first drive of the second half, but that was pretty much all we saw of the tight end in the win over the Packers (4-43-0 finishing line).

He has a role in this offense, but he very much relies on finding the end zone, and that puts him in the same tier as half a dozen other tight ends.

Goedert is a fancy streamer. The seven touchdowns are intoxicating, but with 45 receiving yards in just one game this season, the floor is simply too low to trust consistently in this run-centric offense.

He’s a fringe top 15 tight end for me this week, just like he was last week and will be for weeks to come.

Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs TB)

Dalton Kincaid had a pair of chunk gains, but that was all he was able to muster before suffering a hamstring injury that ended his day early.

He had a drop early last week in wet conditions. While the touchdowns have elevated Kincaid to a level where we are tempted to go this direction, considering that he’s yet to earn more than six targets in a game this season, he’s a little too dependent on TDs to rely on comfortably weekly.

The Bucs are something of a pass funnel, and that means that, should he clear all of the physical tests this week, he’ll again be on the low-end TE1 radar.

I don’t love the profile, but the position is filled with similar players, and there aren’t many offenses better suited to pay it off than the Bills.

If he can overcome this injury and the reporting is reasonably optimistic, he’ll crack my top 12 at the position. If not, I’m not interested in a pass catcher outside of Khalil Shakir.

Dalton Schultz | HOU (at TEN)

It’s not the Bengals, but this is a highly concentrated offense that we can feel good about projecting.

The backfield is Woody Marks’, and the passing game, regardless of who is under center, works through Dalton Schultz and Nico Collins.

Simple.

Schultz has cleared 10 PPR points in four of his past five games and has a 20+ yard reception in each of those four instances. He may not be an explosive athlete or attached to a potent offense, but with at least six looks in six of his past seven games, the opportunity floor resembles that of a Tier 2 tight end, and that means you’re starting him weekly.

Schultz has caught 10 of 11 targets against these Titans over his past three meetings, and if that efficiency sustains in this voluminous role, he’s a solid bet to finish inside the top 10 at the position.

David Njoku | CLE (vs BAL)

David Njoku has scored in consecutive weeks, and that’s piqued your interest if you’ve gone this direction, but you’re very much working on borrowed time.

He finished the loss against the Jets with just two targets, and more discouraging than that was how his role looked when compared to Harrison Bryant.

Week 10 Fantasy Participation Report

• Njoku: Ran a route on 47.9% of his offensive snaps
• Bryant: Ran a route on 68.1% of his offensive snaps

This is an offense that is broken on many levels, and that has me fading it whenever possible. A tight end committee would certainly qualify as a reason to fade, especially when we are talking about the wrong side of that split.

Evan Engram | DEN (vs KC)

The public is still overrating Evan Engram, and I’d hate to see you make that mistake.

His longest reception line last week was set at 14.5 yards: it took him 23 routes and five targets against the Raiders to total 12 yards, never mind on a single play.

We haven’t seen him reach 50 receiving yards in a game this season. Heck, he hasn’t hit 50 air yards in a game this season (five under 20) or seen a single end zone look.

Engram has been on the field for less than half of Denver’s offensive snaps in seven of nine games this season. While the Bo Nix experience will inevitably come with some spike chances, there’s no evidence that those opportunities are going to the tight end position.

At best, he’s a streamer that you’re hoping on. He’s done nothing with the looks, but he has been targeted on 22% of his routes, a rate that can get him home in a one-game sample should Nix put together four good quarters.

With his playing time and the limitations at the quarterback position, not to mention some youthful upside among the pass-catching nucleus, Engram is firmly a streamer and one that I don’t like to finish as a top 15 producer this weekend.

George Kittle | SF (at ARI)

The touchdown last week meant nothing for the 49ers, but it was great for fantasy managers.

Not only did we accrue bonus points, but we saw the rare athlete that blends physicality with finesse as good as anyone at the position.

We saw the player we drafted George Kittle to be back in August.

His snap share has been over 80% in all four games since returning from injury, and he’s caught 17-of-18 targets over the past three. I’m not ready to add him to the top tier at the position because the offense isn’t built around him, a benefit that the top of the board has, but he’s as good as anyone else in the sport, and I think you can bank on it with confidence for the rest of the season.

The WR room in San Francisco might get difficult to judge with time, but they are getting the scraps of what Kittle (and Christian McCaffrey) leave behind, not the other way around.

Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE (vs BAL)

If you’re a big “trust the process” believer, Harold Fannin is the tight end for you to ride into the sunset with this season.

He’s been held under 8.5 PPR points in two of his past three and wasn’t efficient against a JV-level Jets defense last week (four catches on seven targets), but the Browns clearly want him to establish himself as the tight end of the present and future.

He played one fewer snap than David Njoku last season, but he ran nine more routes and earned five more targets than the veteran. He’s a gifted player, but differences like that don’t happen without the scheme dictating as much, and that’s why I’m scooping up shares where I can for a rookie on a bad team that has the bye week in the rearview.

Njoku got the red-zone look and scored against New York, but it seems only a matter of time before that role is also Fannin’s.

I have him on the fringe of starter-worthy this week (TE13) with the game script likely to tilt in his favor, and I’m fine with being early to the party. The Browns face three very gettable defenses in the four weeks after this matchup (Raiders, Titans, and Bears), leading me to believe that it’s a matter of when, not if, he establishes himself as a top-10 player at the position.

Hunter Henry | NE (vs NYJ)

Drake Maye continues to play at an MVP level, so his indifference to getting his tight end speaks volumes to me.

Hunter Henry has checked in well under 0.5 yards per route run in two of his past three games and hasn’t reached 55 receiving yards in a game since doing it in two of three to open this season.

Being attached to a great offense makes sense in theory, but if they are great when not involving your piece of the pie consistently, maybe it’s time to reconsider.

Coltson Loveland is the obvious name, but Theo Johnson and Harold Fannin are among the young tight ends who mean much more to their respective units than Henry does, and that has me ranking all of them a tier ahead of the veteran without a second thought.

Isaiah Likely | BAL (at CLE)

I see the TE “committee” in Cleveland very much slanting in one direction, a luxury we don’t have for the other side of this game.

Week 10 TE Usage, Ravens

• Mark Andrews: 41 snaps, 23 routes, 5 targets
• Isaiah Likely: 37 snaps, 17 routes, 5 targets

Andrews got the touchdown, but this duo is combining for 31 yards on 40 routes — gross.

Now, maybe part of Sunday’s showing was the result of a scheme built around fending off Minnesota’s blitz. I’d listen to that, and things were trending slightly in the direction of Likely before that win, but Charlie Kolar led the position in receiving in that game after finding the end zone in the previous two.

That’s not to say that Kolar has made this into a three-way competition as much as it is to say that, outside of Zay Flowers, Lamar Jackson couldn’t care less who is on the other side of his passes.

Likely was responsible for Jackson’s first completion last week, and I still rank him slightly ahead of Andrews for the remainder of the season because I give him the edge in opportunities, but with the veteran soaking up red zone usage and generalized indifference about getting either on track, neither cracks my top 15 this week.

Ja’Tavion Sanders | CAR (at ATL)

All nine passes thrown in the direction of Ja’Tavion Sanders over the past three weeks have been completed, thanks in large part to a 2.2-yard average depth of target (aDOT).

In a versatile offense with plenty of weapons, I’d be using that as a positive. If Christian McCaffrey or DJ Moore were still Panthers and attracting attention at a high level, these short targets, for an athlete like Sanders, would carry some upside.

But they don’t.

Those nine catches have netted just 56 yards, and considering that Sanders didn’t run a single red zone route last week, there’s no real path to getting him to double-figure PPR points.

Look elsewhere as you try to piece together this position down the stretch.

Jake Ferguson | DAL (at LV)

Jake Ferguson was shut out against the Broncos in Week 8, but that was pretty clearly an aberration.

He ran a season-high 43 routes against the Cardinals before the bye and saw seven targets, the sixth time he’s seen at least that many looks in a contest this season.

Even with Maxx Crosby, the Raiders are a bottom-10 pressure defense, and Ferguson is on the short list of most dangerous pass catchers when given time to operate.

Ferguson, When Dak Prescott Is Not Pressured

• 51 targets (six in the end zone)
• 44 receptions
• 287 yards
• 6 TDs

His stat lines haven’t looked like it lately, but Ferguson is a Tier 1 tight end in PPR formats this week, and I expect him to hold that status strong for the remainder of the season.

Jonnu Smith | PIT (vs CIN)

Aaron Rodgers playing one of his worst games didn’t help things, but I’m not sure it matters.

This Arthur Smith pass game is having trouble getting DK Metcalf into fantasy lineups consistently, so why would we think it can support a tight end committee?

To be honest, if Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth, and Darnell Washington were all one player, I wouldn’t be interested.

OK, that was phrased poorly. If they were all literally combined into one another and we had a 19’3″, 770-pound tight end … yes, they’d have my attention. But role-wise, no thanks. The three of them combined for one fewer target than Calvin Austin earned last week, and that means none of them are even worth a second look long-term.

For one week against the Bengals?

Smith ran one more route than Washington and Freiermuth combined in the loss to the Chargers, so he’d be my pick, but he’s outside of my top 15.

Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL (vs CAR)

What could have been.

Kyle Pitts dropped a big pass on Michael Penix’s first offering of the game, a play that had a chance at being a house call from 56 yards out, given the YAC abilities of the tight end.

But it wasn’t meant to be, and in an offense like this that is as concentrated on a single pass catcher as any in the league, the missing of an opportunity is crippling.

The first pass of the second half also went to Pitts (25-yard gain), a sign to me that this offense is looking to get him going early. That said, there was no momentum to be gained.

Pitts finished with two catches for 38 yards despite a very reasonable 20% target share. He’s been held without a touchdown in five straight games and has failed to reach 40 receiving yards in five games this season.

He’s certainly on the radar as a backend option at a brutal position, but I’m not ranking him as a must-start, even in a reasonable matchup.

Luke Musgrave | GB (at NYG)

There was some hope that Luke Musgrave would be a waiver wire find after the Tucker Kraft injury, but in a week where WR1 Romeo Doubs missed time, the TE ranked sixth in targets against the Eagles.

Kraft made the role work; the role didn’t make Kraft.

There’s no need to bank on Musgrave as a weekly option moving forward. We know that the target hierarchy on Green Bay is a moving piece week-to-week, and I’d rather not throw a dart in this fashion at the position.

Mark Andrews | BAL (at CLE)

Mark Andrews has scored 16 times on 84 receptions since the beginning of last season, an absolutely absurd rate that has him functioning as something of a touchdown vulture.

Last week, we saw him line up as a “wildcat” quarterback, pivot, and pitch the ball to Lamar Jackson on a third-and-one.

Did it work? No. It’s a tight end weirdly handling the ball and pitching it to the leader of the franchise with everyone holding their breath. But the result means less to me than the idea.

The idea that Todd Monken found it necessary to scheme up a variation of the Andrews sneak has me inclined to think we’ll see more of him under center in short-yardage situations moving forward.

Personally, I’d let Derrick Henry hit the line at full speed and let the chips fall where they may, but what do I know?

Andrews has had his struggles earning volume outside the red zone in this, his age-30 season, making his usage creativity at the very least.

We know he’s still very dangerous in close, and we saw it last week with him uncovering in the back of the end zone for his fifth TD of the season. The limitations on volume scare me, especially with a gifted athlete like Isaiah Likely essentially splitting snaps with him, but if you’re content to chase a touchdown with your tight end, there are few better bets.

Mason Taylor | NYJ (at NE)

Do yourself a favor and don’t add the Jets to your roster.

Mason Taylor was a second-round pick in April, and we saw some good things from him early in the year, but this passing game is a disaster under Justin Fields’ watch, and I can’t imagine that the TE position is how they envision fixing things.

It’s been more than a month since the last time the rookie hit 35 receiving yards in a game, and with red zone trips limited, asking him to get close to 10 PPR points feels unfair.

I’d keep an eye on him for next season should this organization address the QB position, but until then, he’s better left on redraft waiver wires.

Michael Mayer | LV (vs DAL)

Michael Mayer has low-end TE1 appeal if Brock Bowers is inactive for any given week, but with the super sophomore seemingly at full strength, there’s no reason to burn a roster spot on his backup.

Over the past two seasons, Mayer has turned 59 targets into just 311 yards and one touchdown: he’s not a lineup lock without Bowers, and he certainly doesn’t profile as the type who will take work off the starter’s plate in a meaningful way.

Noah Fant | CIN (at PIT)

Noah Fant is a fine player with a theoretical role, but this is the most concentrated pass game in the league, and he’s simply not a part of it enough to rank him as a viable starter.

Fant hasn’t earned five targets once during this Joe Flacco heater, and if we dial back some of the per-pass value for Flacco’s bottom line moving forward, his primary tight end moves from streamer into the abyss of options that I don’t spend much time looking at in anything but the perfect matchup.

And considering that Fant can’t face the Bengals, the number of optimal opponents shrinks by one.

Oronde Gadsden II | LAC (at JAX)

A quad bruise cost Oronde Gadsden time last week and has the breakout tight end listed as day-to-day as the team prepares for Week 11.

I hate to oversimplify things here, but following Los Angeles’s actions is the play. It’s very possible they sit him for this game, knowing that they have their bye in Week 12 and bigger fish to fry sooner than later (Eagles and Chiefs in Weeks 14-15).

If they elect to skirt this as an excuse to buy him plenty of recovery time, it tells me that they are very confident in his status, and thus we can trust him to be a valued member of this high-pass-rate offense.

Should he sit, the TE streaming situation is bleak, depending on your league. Harold Fannin and Theo Johnson are my two favorites, but if you have to dig deeper, you’re getting into the “ride-the-Joe-Flacco heater” range and hoping a guy like Noah Fant stumbles into the end zone.

It sounds like, at worst, you’re dealing with a minor inconvenience for a player that was essentially found money.

Pat Freiermuth | PIT (vs CIN)

Pat Freiermuth has caught 81.8% of his passes over the past three games and is part of a passing game that demands a quick release.

In theory, that’s gold. In practice, it’s Aaron Rodgers and the 2025 Steelers.

Freiermuth hasn’t reached 35 receiving yards in any of those games and is stuck in a three-member committee where he’s neither the most athletic (Jonnu Smith) nor the biggest (Darnell Washington).

This offense has more questions than answers after a disastrous showing against the Chargers, which means you can feel good about skipping this team when it comes to streaming the position.

And yes, I’m aware that he went 5-111-2 in the first meeting. I’m happy to bet against a repeat. You can find me at KyleSoppePFN on all social channels.

Sam LaPorta | DET (at PHI)

With Dan Campbell taking over the play-calling responsibilities from John Morton last week, this offense looked free and loose again.

Of course, some of that could have been an awfully forgiving Commanders’ defense that may have finished the game with more punches thrown than defensive assignments fulfilled. Still, a wide-open passing attack is good news for those rostering Sam LaPorta.

He’s been a highly efficient player all season long (81.6% catch rate), and if this change means more volume through the air, their tight end could bump into the second tier at the position.

As it is, he’s in Tier 3, and that still means you play him weekly. I want to see some high-leverage usage (one end zone target this season), but that’s more of a cherry on top than a requirement given his stable target count.

T.J. Hockenson | MIN (vs CHI)

This JJ McCarthy experience isn’t exactly going well for the primary pass catchers.

TJ Hockenson has turned 66 routes this month into five targets and 19 yards. The worst part? They won a road game against the Lions and hung around against the Ravens in those two games, reasonably positive results all things considered.

I don’t think he’s being phased out of this offense, but I do think McCarthy will have to be told to look in this direction, as it’s clearly not in his nature (Hockenson was under 20 yards in each of the first games this season as well).

The matchup is golden, so if you’re the super forgiving type and willing to give him one more week, I can’t really stop you, but I’ve been discouraged enough by the lack of opportunity to drop him down to TE16 in my Week 11 rankings.

Theo Johnson | NYG (vs GB)

A shoulder injury popped up during practice last week, but Theo Johnson was off the injury report before the game, and it didn’t take long for him to make his presence known.

Against the Bears, he became the first tight end in nearly a full year (Week 12, 2024 Jonnu Smith) to have at least six grabs and 70 yards in the first half of the game.

Jaxson Dart threw each of his first two passes to the ultra-athletic prospect and clearly trusts Johnson to make plays in high-leverage spots.

The rookie quarterback’s status is up in the air at the moment, and a Russell Wilson-led offense isn’t nearly as appealing. Should Dart play, I’d rather roll the dice on his tight end than gamble on disappointing veterans like Zach Ertz, T.J. Hockenson, or Mark Andrews.

If that’s not the case, he falls below that tier and would only be on my radar as a DFS punt.

Travis Kelce | KC (at DEN)

Travis Kelce was effective in his only game against these Broncos last season (20.4 PPR points), but 5.3 yards per target is the part of that game I believe is most sticky, which is why I’m proceeding with caution.

It’s not a huge sample this season, but Kelce has lost more than a full yard off of his yards-per-route average when Rashee Rice is on the field (1.07) than off the field (2.08), and if the Broncos have a blueprint of sorts to slowing him down further, the floor is low.

That said, because of a high pass projection for the Chiefs this week, Kelce’s ceiling is also enticing, and let’s face it, upside at the TE position is almost impossible to turn down.

Kelce is a play for me this week with the understanding that there is risk involved. The reflex seems to be to play the future Hall of Famer without a second thought: I don’t think that’s right, but I think you’re on the right side of math this weekend.

Trey McBride | ARI (vs SF)

Trey McBride is turning in the type of season that we thought he would, and given the lack of stability on the high-end at the position elsewhere, that has him shaping up to be one of the best picks in the first handful of rounds from the summer.

He was great before the Jacoby Brissett takeover, but he’s cured the TD allergy that afflicted him for so long with a touchdown in four straight games. Last week, he adjusted to a ball that was tipped at the line, broke a tackle, and found paydirt against a Seahawks defense that was playing at a very high level.

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer

His first touchdown of this season came in Week 3 against these 49ers, a game in which he led the team in receptions (five) and targets (eight). That was a Kyler Murray start, and if we are to believe that Brissett has unlocked something further in him, there’s a chance for him to break the slate on Sunday.

His floor is unlike anything anyone else at the position has, and that makes him a nice DFS cash game play that also comes preloaded with the potential to do something special.

Tucker Kraft | GB (at NYG)

Tucker Kraft was on his way to being one of the best values of the year through the first two months, but a Week 9 ACL tear ended his season and has him targeting the first week of next season as a return.

It’ll be easy to forget, in nine months, just how much of an asset Kraft was.

Don’t let that happen. In the two games before the injury, Kraft posted a 30.2% target share with three touchdowns. This organization has struggled to develop a WR1 since the Davante Adams era, which opens the door for Kraft to have a peak George Kittle/Mark Andrews trajectory.

Zach Ertz | WAS (at MIA)

Zach Ertz was serviceable against the Lions last week (4-54-0), but I think that’s about the best we can hope for in this Marcus Mariota-led offense. On Sunday, four different Commanders earned 3-5 targets, and that was in a game played without Terry McLaurin.

For the season, Ertz has a 7.8 aDOT and averages 2.13 PPR points per target from Jayden Daniels, numbers that shift to 10.0 and 1.56, respectively, under Mariota’s watch. If I can, this is an offense I’m actively distancing myself from, and the tight end position is certainly an easy spot to start.

If you’re only left with tight ends attached to below-average offenses, I’d prefer Theo Jenson and Harold Fannin moving forward than a player like Ertz playing out the string.