The Vikings are in the quarterback market, and the list of names being floated keeps growing. Geno Smith has emerged as one of the primary targets if the Raiders move on, with multiple coaches from quarterback-needy teams already monitoring his status. It may not generate the same buzz as the Kyler Murray conversation, but Smith to Minnesota is a legitimate possibility worth examining from a fantasy football perspective.
Geno Smith Is Not As Bad As He Looked Last Season
The initial reaction to the idea of Geno Smith landing a starting job somewhere is not going to be enthusiastic. Smith graded out 34th among quarterbacks last season with a 68.6 PFSN NFL QB Impact score. He led the league with 17 interceptions and has thrown 32 picks over his last 32 games.
Those numbers are going to make it easy to dismiss the idea entirely. But before we do that, let’s talk about the 2025 Las Vegas Raiders.
Their offensive coordinator was so historically bad at his job that, despite signing the largest contract ever given to a coordinator in NFL history, he was fired three months into his first season.
Head coach Pete Carroll’s performance was so poor that the Raiders sent him packing after one year.
Smith’s top receiving option, Brock Bowers, was limited all season by a PCL injury. The team’s only legitimate NFL-caliber starting receiver, Jakobi Meyers, was traded to Jacksonville at the deadline.
Vegas also had the second-worst offensive line in the league according to PFSN NFL OL Impact Score, grading out at 53.4, with only the Browns ranking below them. Make no mistake: Smith did not play well. He also never really had a chance. This is not a defense of Smith as a franchise quarterback. It is a reminder that context matters.
Before the Raiders disaster, Smith had given us three seasons of evidence that he can be a functional, productive NFL starter. From 2022 through 2024 in Seattle, he averaged 4,075 passing yards, 23.6 touchdowns, and 11.6 interceptions per season while completing 68.5% of his passes. During that stretch, Smith was able to keep Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf both fantasy-relevant simultaneously.
The wheels started to come off in 2024 as the turnover numbers climbed, but Smith still completed 70.4% of his passes that year. The Raiders’ situation regressed things further in 2025, but it did not erase three years of legitimate production.
Is Smith guaranteed to be an upgrade over J.J. McCarthy? No. McCarthy’s 2025 struggles were real, but he was also a 22-year-old in his first season as a starter. Smith, at 35, is a different kind of quarterback with a known ceiling and floor. In a “we need to win now” situation, that familiarity has value.
The piece fantasy managers need to weigh more seriously than any stat line from the 2025 Raiders season is the opportunity for improved coaching in Minnesota. Kevin O’Connell turned Kirk Cousins into one of fantasy’s most reliable point-per-game quarterbacks.
He elevated Sam Darnold, a guy most people had written off entirely, to a 14-win season. He briefly made Joshua Dobbs functional. O’Connell’s track record with quarterbacks who have something to prove in a new environment is not a coincidence. It is a system.
Smith fits the mold of the quarterback O’Connell has historically worked with. He is accurate underneath, processes quickly, and won’t hold the ball or take unnecessary sacks. Put him in a clean pocket with Justin Jefferson on the outside, and the floor is meaningfully higher than anything Las Vegas offered last season.​
What Happens to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison?
Jefferson’s value is almost entirely tied to getting a competent quarterback. His career average with quarterbacks other than McCarthy sits at 18.9 fantasy points per game. With McCarthy last season, it dropped to 11.0. Smith, even in a down year, is a better version of what McCarthy gave Jefferson in 2025.
The bigger upside with Smith compared to Murray, from a fantasy standpoint, is what he means for Addison. Smith has demonstrated the ability to support two fantasy-relevant wide receivers at the same time.
That is more than we could say about McCarthy last year, and it is also not a given with Murray, who has historically gravitated toward a single alpha. Smith’s more balanced distribution tendencies give Addison a cleaner path to consistent volume.
Smith also carries a 17.2% career target rate to running backs, which is a quiet but meaningful number for a pass-catching back. While Aaron Jones is expected to be released, the Vikings will undoubtedly have someone in the receiving role. As long as that player is talented enough, Smith won’t necessarily hold him back.
Geno Smith is not a perfect answer for the Vikings. But he is a functional one, and in Kevin O’Connell’s system, he can look much better than expected.
Jefferson gets a real quarterback, Addison has a legitimate path to weekly relevance, and Aaron Jones’ receiving role stays intact. The ceiling is lower than McCarthy’s. The floor, given what O’Connell tends to do with quarterbacks who arrive with something to prove, might be higher than you think.
