The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Cleveland Browns players heading into their matchup with the Green Bay Packers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Joe Flacco, QB
The Browns’ offense is built to have fantasy spike weeks. This isn’t an ultra-competitive team that poses vertical threats in the passing game and lacks efficient options on the ground.
Joe Flacco has thrown 45 passes in both games this season (the first QB to open a season with two games like that since Matthew Stafford in 2018), but he still has just two touchdowns on his 2022 ledger, and he’s fortunate to have that many.
Instead of having a second straight multi-pick game, Flacco had an off-target pass played into a Cedric Tillman TD on Sunday. The Flacco profile would have been much more valuable 10 years ago when dual-threat QBs were less prevalent and deep passing was more efficient, but here we are, in the year 2022, where this skill set is nothing more than run-of-the-mill.
That’ll be my take with the crafty veteran in a perfect matchup, something that this clearly isn’t. The Packers appear to have a Super Bowl-level defense, and giving them extra time to prepare for a simplistic offense is a recipe for disaster.
If you can get away with not counting on a single Brown this week, you improve the outlook for your weekend mental stability by at least 25%.
You can trust me, I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
Quinshon Judkins, RB
Last week, Jerome Ford essentially doubled Quinshon Judkins’ snaps and tripled his routes, but those numbers became out of line given the game state, with the Ravens dominating for much of the afternoon.
The Browns opened up with a pair of pass plays before their first handoff, but that first designed run was Judkins’, and I expect him to be the lead in this low-volume backfield moving forward.
Not only did he get the first shot at ground production, he got six of the first nine in his NFL debut. I was surprised at just how heavily they leaned on him, and while it didn’t matter in a massive way (the 31-yard run was nice), it was encouraging for his stock moving forward.
Judkins is the only back in Cleveland I’m rostering these days. He shouldn’t be trusted in any format against a Packers defense that is on a mission and rested. Still, I expect him to be a viable flex option on multiple occasions before Cleveland goes on bye in Week 9.
READ MORE:Â Soppe’s Week 3 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
Jerry Jeudy, WR
Am I allowed to be disappointed in a player who has a 25+ yard grab and eight targets in both games this season?
This is my article, and I make the rules, so yes, I am allowed to be mad, and I am!
Jerry Jeudy hasn’t been a top-30 receiver in either of the first two weeks this season despite the Browns leading the world in pass attempts. I thought that in getting Flacco under center, we’d not only pick up some volume, but also some efficiency.
Hasn’t been the case.
Jeudy posted a 62.1% catch rate last season despite the Cleveland team cycling through various quarterbacks, and this season so far?
56.3%
We are being asked to determine if the volume is more stable or the efficiency more concerning, and to be honest with you, I lean towards the latter.
No team in the NFL is going to average 46.5 passes per game for four months, so banking on that is statistically silly. I’d love to pencil in some regression in the right direction in terms of catch rate, though I’m not sure I can.
His slot rate has been more than chopped in half from where it stood a year ago, and his aDOT is ticking up. Neither of those is great when considering projected efficiency, and given that we aren’t sure how this quarterback situation will play out over time, this feels like an awfully risky stock to buy.
I think I just talked myself into it. If you want to gamble on a player like Calvin Ridley in an offense with more upside at the QB position, I’m in. If you really want to get ahead of the curve, what about Jeudy and your RB2 for Matthew Golladay and a top 10-ish running back?
Hit up our Trade Analyzer with your best ideas, but from a strategic perspective, I’m in favor of both options.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
David Njoku, TE
David Njoku has cleared an 80% snap share and seen at least five passes thrown his way in both games this season, usage metrics that sound stronger than they are.
The playing time is great to see, don’t get me wrong, but 11 targets on 80 routes isn’t great, and with Harold Fant Jr. outproducing him in both games on fewer snaps, the arrow isn’t exactly pointing up.
That said, there is some roster safety here. Jeudy and Cedric Tillman are Cleveland’s two receivers, and then you have these two tight ends: that’s essentially the entire rotation of pass catchers.
The running backs will be involved, but in terms of depth on this team, there really isn’t much, which leads me to believe that these two-TE sets are here to stay.
If a quarterback change happens, all bets are off because I think the raw volume dips in a major way (90 passes thrown through two weeks). Until then, though, I think both Njoku and Fant are low-end viable options, especially in a spot like this where Cleveland projects to be playing from behind.
