The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Chicago Bears players heading into their matchup with the New Orleans Saints to help you craft a winning lineup.
Caleb Williams, QB
Caleb Williams continues to impress me, and I think the skill set is in place for him to threaten the top 7 at the position for sustained periods of time down the stretch of this season and over the course of the next handful of years.
For his career, Williams has a 21:3 TD/INT ratio from the pocket and routinely showcases the type of plus-athleticism that it takes to post impressive fantasy numbers. He got the touchdown rush on Monday night against the Commanders on a beautiful design, and that’s the other piece of this: Ben Johnson.
The stage is set for a top-5 performance this week, as the Saints have shown a few times already this season that they can do anything to slow mobile QBs. Chicago has a brutal schedule from the middle of November on, so there may be a sell-high window after Sunday, but for dynasty managers, I think you have the real deal.
D’Andre Swift, RB
The 55-yard touchdown reception took D’Andre Swift’s day on Monday from good to great, the third time he has scored in four weeks and the second 40+ yard reception this season.
Yards Per Carry Before First Contact
- Week 3 vs. Dallas: -0.08
- Week 4 at Las Vegas: 0.71
- Week 6 at Washington: 4.71
It truly is amazing what happens when you give an above-average running back a chance to succeed.
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The Saints are a middle-of-the-pack run defense in terms of success rate, and that probably means that Monday’s level of success on the ground doesn’t stick (14 carries for 108 yards), but with 3+ targets in every game, I think the floor is high enough to start him weekly without much thought.
I have Swift ranked ahead of J.K. Dobbins (vs. NYG) and Kimani Vidal (vs. IND) if you’re looking to stack up the RB2s for Week 7.
DJ Moore, WR
DJ Moore was hospitalized after Monday night’s win for “precautionary medical attention,” and given the resources NFL teams have at their home base, the fact that they felt it necessary to get the star WR treatment so quickly is concerning.
Any loss for Moore would be Luther Burden’s gain in fantasy, and even if he’s labeled as fine for this week, he hasn’t earned more than six looks in a game this season. The Saints allow the sixth-most yards after the catch to the receiver position, a strong spot for Moore if he can give it a go.
He’ll be flirting with my top 30 at the position if every health box is checked (he hasn’t sat out a game since 2020), but with the bye behind them, Chicago may take the cautious approach here.
Luther Burden III, WR
Burden earned a target on 30.8% of his routes on Monday night coming out of the bye, a figure that by itself would suggest buying, but that’s kind of like a kid telling his parents that he only missed three questions on a test.
You’re missing an important detail.
You’re repeating the grade if that test only had six questions, and I’m repeating my skepticism on Burden because he only ran 13 routes (Rome Odunze, Moore, and Olamide Zaccheaus all ran 25+).
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The coaching staff doesn’t trust the rookie to do anything outside of running routes, and while that is what pays the fantasy bills, it hints at the team not loving the development process up to this point.
Burden ran a route on each of his snaps, while the three receivers ahead of him were all on the field for 50+ offensive snaps in the win over the Commanders. Before you can sell me on him being anything but roster depth, he needs to unseat a journeyman in Zaccheaus and earn the well-rounded trust of his coaches.
If we get this in a soft matchup, we can have a different discussion next week, but for now, there’s not enough in this profile to encourage me.
Rome Odunze, WR
If the touchdown doesn’t get called back for illegal formation, you’re not reading this section, as Odunze would have scored for a fifth consecutive game and paid you off for starting him with confidence.
Instead, he finishes with his worst game of the season by 10 PPR points, and you’re looking for a pick-me-up.
I don’t see any real reason to worry. The target share fell a bit because Chicago thought it was a good idea to feature Olamide Zaccheaus (team-high six targets), and that almost cost them the game with a late drop.
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The tight ends were essentially useless (11 yards on five targets), and DJ Moore finished with under 50 yards for a fourth consecutive game. You have the WR1 in a Ben Johnson offense, with a quarterback whose confidence is growing and a defense that struggles consistently.
Odunze is an unquestioned starter for the rest of the season across all formats and is a top-10 option for me this week in a great spot (New Orleans allows the 10th-most yards per deep pass and has seen the third-highest percentage of those chunk tries result in scores).
Cole Kmet, TE
Is the writing on the wall?
Cole Kmet was technically on your TV screen more on Monday night, but not in a fantasy-friendly way. He ran a route on 36.7% of his snaps, a rate that fell well short of Colston Loveland’s (60%) as the rookie returned from a hip injury.
We haven’t gotten consistent production from the TE position in Chicago yet this season. But the scales seem to be tipping in favor of Loveland, making Kmet unrosterable in almost all formats.
Colston Loveland, TE
Colston Loveland sat out Week 4 (hip), but walked right back into a split TE situation with Cole Kmet on Monday night, coming out of the bye.
In the win over the Commanders, he ran 15 routes to Kmet’s 11 despite being on the field for five fewer snaps. I think the Bears are showing their hand a bit (remember that the rookie saw three targets on six routes before the injury took him out in the last game we saw him) by wanting Loveland to be the guy.
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That makes him the only TE in town worth rostering, but let’s not forget that Williams has two receivers we like and versatility out of the backfield. The second-year signal caller is averaging a respectable 235.8 passing yards per game, but that’s going to make it tough to feed everyone in this offense weekly.
Loveland is a sharp add now for those with roster space to stream another option. I’m not sold on him as a top-12 option for October, but as we near Thanksgiving, it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s where I rank him weekly as Chicago fully unleashes him over Kmet.
