The term “fantasy football sleeper” has evolved in this information era. My goal is not to highlight names you don’t know but rather to shine a light on the names you aren’t drafting high enough.
James Conner, Nico Collins, and Jayden Reed are on that list at the top of the board. When it comes to the later stages of fantasy drafts, finding a diamond in the rough can be difficult, but not impossible. Here are my five favorite options that require little investment and could pay off in a big way come January!
Fantasy Football Sleepers 2024
Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Kirk Cousins isn’t a sleeper based on name brand — everyone knows who he is. But that hasn’t stopped him from largely being ignored in 1QB formats.
This is due to the depth of the position and the lack of rushing potential. It’s a logical result, though I think he could prove to be a difference-maker for those who don’t invest heavily in the position.
Since 2020, there are five quarterbacks with at least 40 games of 15+ fantasy points. Here they are, along with the percentage of games over that stretch in which they’ve reached that threshold:
- Josh Allen: 89.4%
- Patrick Mahomes: 81.5%
- Jalen Hurts: 71%
- Kirk Cousins: 70.2%
- Justin Herbert: 69.4%
That’s not bad company. Herbert would be on this list for me if his roster weren’t gutted of pass-catching talent with a clear focus on the ground-and-pound attack at every turn.
The opposite is true for Cousins in Atlanta, a franchise that comes preloaded with elite playmakers and is looking to distance itself from the bland offense that led to underachievement during the Arthur Smith era.
If you wait until the double-digit rounds to take your starting quarterback, you’re asking that player to keep your matchup reasonably close, thus allowing your bevy of skill-position players to put you over the edge.
There isn’t a quarterback that fits that mold better than Cousins, and the ADP gap between him and other traditional pocket passers (Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, and Tua Tagovailoa) is a little more significant than I believe it should be.
Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
We in the fantasy community spend a lot of time and energy trying to predict what teams want to do, so it’s nice when a team makes numerous moves pointing in the same direction to eliminate the guesswork.
Will Levis = Stud pic.twitter.com/1n4qi7Ln83
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) November 3, 2023
This offseason, the Titans moved on from a one-dimensional running back with over 2,000 carries to a versatile one with under 1,000. They inked a former WR1 to a four-year deal and made him the 10th-highest-paid player at the position in terms of average annual value. Tennessee also reunited a veteran slot receiver with his former offensive coordinator to round out this passing game.
Whether you think Will Levis is destined to be a good real-life quarterback or not, Tennessee is going about the evaluation process smartly: load up the skill positions around him and give him a chance to succeed.
The Titans’ commitment to increased aggression in an offense led by a second-round QB checks a few boxes that have proven advantageous.
Since 2000, eight times has a quarterback not drafted in the first round thrown 250+ passes in each of his first two seasons and, as a collective, they saw their fantasy production increase by 11.9% in their second season (average: 15.8 PPG).
Teams that have committed to this profile have been rewarded with better play. The odds of that happening only increase if you believe that these offseason acquisitions are complemented by a shift in play-calling.
Over the past two seasons, 10 times has a team seen its pass rate over expectation ranking increase by 8+ spots, a level of growth that is certainly in play here (Tennessee ranked 28th last season). In those 10 instances, they received 11.1% more fantasy points per game from the QB position than they did the year prior (average: 17.9 ppg).
That 17.9 ppg number is on the optimistic side of outcomes and would have ranked as QB11 last season (between Herbert and Justin Fields), less than one point per game away from QB5 honors. If you split the difference between those two averages listed above, we’re talking about QB15, a valuable finish for a quarterback who is free at the end of your draft.
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Draft Levis as a backup if you aren’t comfortable with him as your starter. He has an early bye (Week 5) that won’t impact what you’re doing and could develop into a trade asset as the season progresses.
The Titans don’t have a single negative matchup after hosting the New England Patriots in Week 9, a home stretch that could make Levis a valuable commodity to the right fantasy team.
You’ll want to keep tabs on DeAndre Hopkins’ injury status, but the hope is that he’ll be clear come Week 1.
Jaylen Wright, RB, Miami Dolphins
Jaylen Wright’s speed is enticing, but fantasy managers have been skeptical about investing redraft dollars in him with not one, but two productive running backs easily ahead of him on the depth chart.
But is that right? Doesn’t that just double Wright’s chances of getting on the field via an injury for one of the most explosive offenses in the league?
Last season proves that Miami’s offense can sustain two viable backs. Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane were both top-10 running backs in 2023, combining for over 35 fantasy points per game. Yet, both players carry at least some injury risk.
- Mostert: Age-32 season, 57.9% of his career carries have come in the past two seasons.
- Achane: Missed a game with a shoulder sprain and a month with a knee sprain.
I don’t want to say Wright could be a 2024 injury to Achane away from being 2023 Achane, but it’s not impossible and well worth his current asking price.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, New York Giants
What if Devin Singletary is nothing more than ordinary? He has spent all five of his seasons in offenses with a franchise QB under center (four with Josh Allen and last year with C.J. Stroud) and considerable amounts of upside. It’s safe to say that the Giants do not check those boxes.
Despite the positive surrounding environment, Singletary averaged a career-low 0.19 PPR fantasy points per opportunity (targets + rush attempts), ranking him 31st of 35 qualifiers at the position.
The G-men spent a fifth-round pick on Tyrone Tracy Jr., a Boilermaker who showed some efficiency and versatility while in college. The rookie’s ADP is low because of the three-year contract that Singletary signed this offseason. That, theoretically, gives him the leg-up role-wise early in the season.
That said, you’re not drafting Tracy for the beginning of the season before injuries and byes take a bite out of your lineup. You’re hoping for a role that carries volume down the stretch.
This is a low-risk, high-reward investment, which is exactly how I like spending my picks in the double-digit rounds.
Mike Williams, WR, New York Jets
At his current ADP, Mike Williams can be cut loose if it becomes clear that he isn’t right, but his past usage is fantasy-friendly. Joining forces with Rodgers gives him the potential to post a big touchdown season.
Percentage of targets coming in the end zone since 2017 (min. 400 targets)
- DK Metcalf: 15.4%
- A.J. Green: 12.5%
- Mike Evans: 12.4%
- Mike Williams: 12.3%
That’s at least interesting, no? Rodgers threw 2.3 touchdown passes per game during his final three seasons in Green Bay. While this is likely a different version of him, the Jets, with relatively no stability at the QB position, recorded the second-highest red-zone throw rate a season ago (62.2%, league average: 48.8%).
The only thing longer than Williams’ consecutive season streak of missing at least one game (five seasons) is his streak of returning a fantasy profit based on expectations (six straight).
The health risk is there and being accounted for, but are we properly evaluating Williams’ upside in labeling him a 13th-round pick (same range as Rashid Shaheed, Brandin Cooks, and Jahan Dotson)?
It may be a small sample because Williams appeared in just three games last season, but I found it interesting that the Chargers experimented with using him as a big slot option. In 2023, he spent 28.1% of his snaps in the slot, a rate that more than doubled his percentage from the two seasons prior.
We know the slot can be an advantageous spot because of the completion rate on those throws. It’s at least possible that Williams is thrust into that position in New York.
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Garrett Wilson saw his slot usage dip from 33.5% as a rookie to 29.1% last season; not a huge drop, but a downward turn, nonetheless. And that was without a real secondary option alongside him.
Take it a step further and note that during those final three seasons in Lambeau, Rodgers led the league in both passer rating and TD rate when targeting the slot.
Could Williams not just be the receiver version of 2023 Gus Edwards? That is, a player who relies on touchdowns, but finds paydirt often enough to be worthy of lineup consideration every week.
Despite lacking versatility and efficiency, Edwards finished last season as at least an RB2 (top 24 at the position) seven times and an RB1 (top 12) on four occasions. Anything close to that would make Williams a steal outside of the 120 picks. Thus, he’s a flier I’m taking consistently across all formats (though I’ll admit, he’s more valuable as the value per reception declines).
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