Soppe’s Fantasy Football Sleepers: Brian Thomas Jr., Jaylen Wright Among AFC’s Hidden Assets

The definition of “fantasy football sleepers” has evolved with time. Years ago, they were players who the general public had never heard of, let alone considered as a legitimate fantasy asset.

The days of the truly hidden gem are gone due to the ease of access to information, but that doesn’t mean the market is perfect. Here is a player for every AFC team that is being selected in the second half of fantasy drafts, if at all, but has far more potential than they are given credit for.

Fantasy Football Sleepers | AFC East

Buffalo Bills: Ray Davis, RB

James Cook ranked 10th in touches at the RB position but 24th in red-zone touches, a ranking that is even more mind-blowing when you realize that the Bills ranked fifth in drives that landed inside the opponents’ 20-yard line.

Davis isn’t generating a ton of “goal-line vulture” talk because Buffalo’s best asset in such situations sets up under center. But what if the drafting of Ray Davis was in response to new offensive coordinator admitting that the in-close usage for Josh Allen was a bit too much?

In 2023, Allen essentially doubled his career average for rushing touchdowns in a season. If he trends closer to his traditional mark, could Davis pick up the difference?

I’m not calling it likely, but at his current ADP, I’m willing to gamble.

Miami Dolphins: Jaylen Wright, RB

Jaylen Wright’s speed is enticing, but fantasy managers have been skeptical about investing redraft dollars in him with not one but two productive running backs easily ahead of him on Miami’s depth chart.

But is that right? Doesn’t that just double his chances of getting on the field via an injury for one of the most explosive offenses in the league?

Last season proves that the Dolphins’ offense can sustain two viable backs at a time. Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane were both top-10 RBs in 2023, combining for over 35 fantasy points per game, yet both carry at least some injury risk.

• Mostert: Age-32 season, 57.9% of his career carries have come in the past two seasons.
• Achane: Missed a game with a shoulder sprain and a month with a knee sprain.

I don’t want to say Wright could be a 2024 injury to Achane away from being 2023 Achane, but it’s not impossible and well worth his current asking price.

New York Jets: Mike Williams, WR

During his last two seasons in Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers funneled over five targets per game to a tall WR2 (Romeo Doubs in 2022 and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in 2021) — a role that Williams finds himself in.

There is risk involved (health or otherwise), but over his past 12 games with over five targets earned, Mike Williams has produced 1.885 PPR fantasy points per target.

• 2023 DK Metcalf: 1.895 points per target
• 2023 A.J. Brown: 1.858 points per target

Obviously, Williams isn’t one of those guys, but the idea that he can be that efficient outside of the first 100 picks is encouraging. What if we used a receiver over 6’ tall operating as the clear-cut WR2 in a new offense as a data point?

• 2023 Jakobi Meyers: 1.884 points per target

If we get Meyers’ numbers (71-807-8 in 16 games) from Williams with a late-round selection, we’re profiting. And that’s without adjusting for the potential that Rodgers returns to even 80% of his pre-injury form.

New England Patriots: Ja’Lynn Polk, WR

The same way in not all calories are the same, not all targets are the same. That said, in 2024, even the ugly offenses have the potential to provide some support through the air, and if that’s going to be the case for the Pats, their second-round pick out of Washington could be the beneficiary.

MORE: PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings

Can Ja’Lynn Polk earn 21% of the targets? That doesn’t seem like a high bar to clear, given the lack of other options and his immediate role. Last season, 38 qualified receivers hit that threshold and 31 of them averaged over 12 PPR points per game (the number it took to be a top-36 performer at the position).

A breakout for Polk isn’t going to look anything like 2023 Puka Nacua, but he should be involved, which gives him Flex appeal in PPR leagues.

Fantasy Football Sleepers | AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals: Mike Gesicki, TE

At the very end of drafts, you’re betting on a profile more than anything.

Mike Gesicki is on this third team in as many years, but he might finally be put in a position to matter in deep fantasy leagues. He’s caught just 61 passes for 608 yards over the past two seasons — numbers that came in the first season of the Tyreek Hill era with the Miami Dolphins and another in an inept New England Patriots environment.

Gesicki has been used as a blocker on just 28.8% of his career offensive snaps, making him a receiver masked as a tight end. With a skill set like that, I’m happy to bet on an elite pocket passer in Joe Burrow.

Gone from Cincinnati’s offense is a short-yardage specialist in Tyler Boyd, and he’s been replaced by a splash playmaker in rookie Jermaine Burton (18.0 yards per catch during his collegiate career). That opens up a role that might not come with significant upside but should offer a nice floor for those patch-working together the position late in drafts.

Baltimore Ravens: Isaiah Likely, TE

If I’m waiting to address the tight end position, my first option has to come with top-10 upside. In taking over for Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely scored five times in five games to close the 2023 regular season, making a 25+ yard catch in each of those contests.

The athletic profile is elite for this position at the professional level. The upside is no longer a secret if given the TE1 role, but counting on Andrews missing significant time like he did last season isn’t wise (seven missed games in 2023 after missing five games through his first five seasons).

However, I don’t think Likely needs an injury to matter.

One of Isaiah Likely's most iconic plays from 2023 was this 15-yard TD catch vs the Texans in the Divisional round. The catch capped a 12-play, 93-yard drive early in the 4th Q, and showed the trust that Lamar Jackson has in the talented "backup" TE.
#Ravens #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/2wSibV7Hx6

— All 22 Films (@All_22_NFL_Cuts) May 6, 2024

For his career, Likely has earned a target on 18.7% of his routes run with Andrews on the field compared to 17.8% without him. That’s a small sample, but it is some proof of concept and Todd Monken is the type of offensive coordinator who I’m comfortable betting on when it comes to creativity.

Zay Flowers is the clear-cut WR1 on Baltimore’s offense and should build on a rookie season that saw him flash at points. After him, this receiver room is awfully thin. Rashod Bateman is the owner of the second-highest drop rate among qualified receivers since he entered the league while ranking in the 30th percentile in yards per route over that stretch.

MORE: Try PFN’s “Who Should I Draft?” Tool

If not Bateman, Nelson Agholor is next on Baltimore’s depth chart, but his résumé isn’t much more impressive. Last season, 73 receivers had at least as many catches as Agholor, and all of them earned a target on a higher percentage of their routes (13%, NFL WR average: 21.3%).

Monken can be an offensive artist. He can create something beautiful, but he needs the proper tools to make it work.

I think, next to Flowers and Andrews, Likely’s versatility gives this da Vinci the best chance at constructing a 2024 Mona Lisa and thus carries enough fantasy upside to stash as your draft concludes.

Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson, QB

Is it possible that Deshaun Watson simply was never right last season?

It’s seemingly been forever since he mattered on a consistent basis for us, but Watson is still under 30 years of age, carries rushing upside, and has a clear-cut WR1 to lean on.

Next to Amari Cooper is Jerry Jeudy in his attempt to revive his career and David Njoku coming off of a career year (albeit largely without Watson throwing him the ball). An athletic QB with at least three viable pass catchers and an uncertain running game until Nick Chubb returns — that’s the exact profile we dream of.

Watson comes with plenty of downside, but with an ADP well outside of the top 15 at the position, your expectations are measured. His name no longer drives his ADP to a point where all of the upside is sucked out — a healthy Watson could return top 100 players.

At the very least, Cleveland’s opening schedule should allow Watson to get you through the first half of the season.

• Week 1 vs. Cowboys
• Week 2 at Jaguars
• Week 3 vs. Giants
• Week 4 at Raiders
• Week 5 at Commanders
• Week 6 at Eagles
• Week 7 vs. Bengals

If you’re streaming the position, Watson should be able to get you through the start of the season while you keep an eye on other options. Remember — early-season wins are just as valuable as late-season ones.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Roman Wilson, WR

No one is going to pick up the exact role that has been vacated by Johnson. That said, the Steelers made changes under center this offseason and elected to spend a third-round pick on a complement.

Wilson averaged over 15 yards per catch during each of his final three seasons at Michigan, and he scored on 19.4% of his catches. Whether that means running fly routes for Russell Wilson’s pretty deep ball or getting extra time to separate as Justin Fields runs around, I think he’s a decent fit alongside George Pickens.

More importantly for this call than Wilson’s potential is my lack of confidence in those pushing him for looks. Van Jefferson is on his third roster in two seasons, and no other WR on Pittsburgh’s roster has any proof of concept when it comes to earning targets at the professional level.

This projects to be an underwhelming offense and, thus, isn’t one I’d look to for a sleeper. If I’m going in that direction, I want a player who we’ve yet to see fail at the NFL level.

Fantasy Football Sleepers | AFC South

Houston Texans: Dalton Schultz, TE

Since 2021, Dalton Schultz has averaged more PPR fantasy points per target than T.J. Hockenson and Njoku — tight ends with a much higher profile in fantasy football. Schultz had six games during the regular season with a 20+ yard catch and had such a play in both playoff contests, proving that being tied to a C.J. Stroud-led offense can elevate his stock.

The concern, of course, is the target count, and I’m not here to tell you that it’s going to be pretty. The opportunity count is going to be low, and you’ll be relying on efficiency/touchdowns. That, however, is likely going to be the case on any tight end in a punt-TE build.

Schultz comes with contingent value that far exceeds the other tight ends in his range.

Talent, opportunity, and environment. In the late rounds, if you can get a player who checks two of those boxes, you take it. Schultz does, and he’s one injury away from being very interesting in an offense that is the betting favorite to lead the league in passing scores.

Indianapolis Colts: Josh Downs, WR

I believe in the Anthony Richardson wave lifting all boats, and there’s a decent chance that this offense’s best days in 2024 come at the perfect time for fantasy managers.

Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell are with Josh Downs in the competition for targets behind Michael Pittman Jr. Instead of trying to split hairs in terms of raw talent, I’m taking a role approach.

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Pierce and Mitchell are going to stretch the field, while Downs figures to assume more of a short-yardage role out of the slot. The splash plays will go elsewhere, but if you told me that a non-Pittman receiver on this team had 10 usable weeks in PPR formats, Downs would be my pick.

This is a roster construction situation. There’s a time and a place to speculate on the ceiling potential of Pierce/Mitchell, but if you’re looking for a weekly floor to offset some volatility among your starters, Downs is a fine buy assuming health.

Tennessee Titans: Will Levis, QB

We in the fantasy community spend a lot of time and energy trying to predict what it is that teams want to do. So it’s awfully nice when a team makes numerous moves pointing in the same direction to eliminate the guesswork we need to do.

Will Levis = Stud pic.twitter.com/1n4qi7Ln83

— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) November 3, 2023

This offseason, the Titans moved on from a one-dimensional running back with over 2,000 carries to a versatile one with under 1,000. They inked a former WR1 to a four-year deal and made him the 10th-highest-paid player at the position in terms of average annual dollars. Tennessee also reunited a veteran slot receiver with his former offensive coordinator to give this pass game balance.

Whether you think Will Levis is destined to be a good real-life quarterback or not, Tennessee is going about the evaluation process in a smart way — load up the skill positions around him and give him a chance to succeed.

The Titans’ commitment to increased aggression in an offense led by a second-round quarterback checks a few boxes that have proven advantageous.

Since 2000, eight times has a quarterback not drafted in the first round thrown 250+ passes in each of his first two seasons. As a collective, they saw their fantasy production increase by 11.9% in their second season (average: 15.8 ppg).

Teams that have committed to this profile have been rewarded with better play, and the odds of that happening only increase if you believe that these offseason acquisitions are complemented by a shift in play-calling.

Over the past two seasons, 10 times has a team seen its pass rate over expectation ranking increase by 8+ spots, a level of growth that is certainly in play here (Tennessee ranked 28th last season). In those 10 instances, they got 11.1% more fantasy points per game from the QB position than they did the year prior (average: 17.9 ppg).

That 17.9 number is on the optimistic side of outcomes and would have ranked as QB11 last season (between Justin Herbert and Justin Fields), less than one point away from QB5 honors. If you split the difference between those two averages listed above, we’re talking about QB15, a valuable finish for a quarterback who is free at the end of your draft.

Draft Levis as a backup if you aren’t comfortable with him as your starter. He has an early bye (Week 5) that won’t impact what you’re doing and could develop into a trade asset as the season progresses.

The Titans don’t have a single negative matchup after hosting the New England Patriots in Week 9, a finishing kick that could make him a highly valuable commodity to the right fantasy team.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Brian Thomas Jr., WR

The rookie is going as high as anyone on this list (late 10th round), but I wanted to mention Brian Thomas Jr. because he seems to be overlooked due to the top-end talent in the 2024 WR class.

From a talent standpoint, I understand him not being in the same conversation as Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze, but fantasy is a game played in the box scores. Thomas has a chance to be the WR1 for an offense with its long-term answer at quarterback. Nabers doesn’t check either of those boxes, and Odunze is fighting to be labeled the third option in a passing game centered around a rookie QB.

I think it’s likely that Thomas outproduces Odunze despite being picked two rounds later, and I wouldn’t call you crazy if you said he kept pace with Nabers. The Jaguars ranked fifth in pass rate over expectation last season and saw Calvin Ridley take his talents to Tennessee this offseason. The table is set for a strong return on investment on the former LSU star.

Fantasy Football Sleepers | AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB

We know who the Chiefs are, and that means finding a sleeper on this roster is largely an exercise in futility. Wanting a piece of Kansas City’s offense is logical, but it’s also what drives the ADPs up for the six primary players.

I think Rashee Rice is a Round 2 pick if not suspended, so that makes him a nice pick at cost right now, but that could change at a moment’s notice. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is in the final year of his rookie deal and could be fighting for his NFL life if given the opportunity.

For his career, CEH averages one touchdown for every 27.9 touches. That’s a good enough rate to give him the leg-up over Deneric Prince for the RB2 role behind Isiah Pacheco.

I don’t see a universe in which KC’s offense goes to a two-back system where multiple options hold standalone value. However, handcuffing a workhorse in one of the best offenses in the game isn’t a bad way to spend your final selection.

Los Angeles Chargers: Kimani Vidal, RB

I live life trying to eliminate uncertainty. I check the weather before I go for a run, consult the menu before I go out, and refuse to play games of chance. Some call me boring. Many, actually.

This is where I let my hair down. When I’m drafting in the late stages, I’m all in on chaos. Give me a backfield that lacks role clarity and comes preloaded with a run-centric playbook, and I’ll take a flier on just about anyone.

Kimani Vidal is in that spot this season. The Bolts are without Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler this season. Gus Edwards cashed in on a career season with the explosive Ravens, and J.K. Dobbins is trying to come back from yet another serious injury.

To say the Chargers’ offense is searching for answers would be an understatement, so why can’t Vidal be the answer?

He totaled over 3,000 total yards during his final two collegiate seasons and has the frame (5’8”, 215 pounds) of an instant-impact RB.

To keep with the analogy, Vidal busting would be like catching a single raindrop during a run or an Italian restaurant not offering veal parm. It’s a setback, but the day is not ruined.

At cost, there’s no real risk in scooping Vidal and playing the waiting game. You’re not planning on playing any of your reserves in the early going, and there is certainly the potential for Vidal to develop with time into a part of your weekly Flex conversation by November.

Denver Broncos: Marvin Mims Jr., WR

Coming out of drafts, I want my bench to be loaded with talents I believe in or players attached to a coach I trust. Marvin Mims Jr. is certainly the latter, as we haven’t seen enough of him at the professional level to make strong statements. However, Sean Payton has the sort of résumé that demands respect.

The Broncos dealt Jeudy to the Browns in March, opening up a role for Mims to step into. That’s not to say he’ll be a supreme target earner, but if Mims generates even five looks per game (something that 50 receivers did last season), his speed could be interesting more often than not.

Mims averaged 17.1 yards per catch last season and 20.1 in his final season at Oklahoma. Denver will have to keep up with three teams that have their franchise quarterback on the roster during the fantasy playoffs, an environment that could make Mims an asset for undermanned teams looking to pull off a major upset on their way to fantasy glory.

Las Vegas Raiders: Jakobi Meyers, WR

Jakobi Meyers was hardly drafted at all last season but produced in a meaningful way (71-807-8 in 16 games) despite limitations under center. Yet, he’s available in the 12th round of most drafts, with a handful of kickers currently holding a higher ADP.

Make it make sense.

Most are operating under the assumption that Aidan O’Connell will lead the Raiders in pass attempts this season when all is said and done, so let’s drill down on that a bit.

O’Connell’s passes last season …

• Davante Adams: 19% under expectation with four scores on 108 targets
• Jakobi Meyers: 12.2% over expectation with four scores on 55 targets

You could argue regression if you’d like, but at this asking price, I’m happy to take the flier on Meyers simply fitting O’Connell’s eye. There is increased target competition thanks to the drafting of Brock Bowers, but is it not at least possible that the addition of a reliable target is a net positive for Meyers?

The Raiders were a bottom-10 offense in terms of staying on the field (third-down conversion rate and time of possession) and generating scoring chances (red-zone drives) last season. If a few fewer targets mean an increase in every target as a whole, I’m fine with that.

It’s not crazy at all to think there is more juice to squeeze here than out of Tyler Lockett, a take that seems spicy given the difference in ADP.