In terms of fantasy football value, RB red-zone attempts, specifically those around the goal line, are absolutely crucial. In this article, we will examine the red-zone carries and attempts in and around the goal line and put them into the wider context of the season so far.
These goal-line attempts and carries help us to evaluate the fantasy value of the various options. Using these opportunities, we can look at the floor and ceiling potential of various RBs. This allows us to identify potential starting options for season-long leagues and players who might be of value in Underdog Fantasy Best Ball and DFS contests for Week 11 and beyond.
RB Red-Zone Attempts From Last Week
In this article, we will focus on carries in and around the goal line. Specifically, we will examine how the carries inside the 5-yard line broke down this week, referred to as “goal-line carries” throughout these articles. The reason for this is that these carries produce the biggest average return in terms of fantasy points per rushing attempt. For the full breakdown of the math involved, check out the section at the bottom of the article.
In Week 10, there were 41 goal-line carries, resulting in 18 touchdowns and 42 yards gained. Nine of those rushing attempts were handled by quarterbacks; Justin Fields (2), Kirk Cousins (2), Matt Ryan (1), Jimmy Garoppolo (1), Kenny Pickett (1), Jalen Hurts (1), and Patrick Mahomes (1). There was also one goal-line attempt handled by a WR, George Pickens (Pittsburgh), leaving 32 in the hands of RBs this week.
Let’s examine the bigger picture around when it comes to the RBs that had two or more rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line in Week 10.
- Four carries: Christian McCaffrey, SF
- Three carries: Devin Singletary, BUF
- Two carries:
- Antonio Gibson, WAS
- Brian Robinson, WAS
- Saquon Barkley, NYG
- Leonard Fournette, TB
- Jamaal Williams, DET
- Josh Jacobs, LV
- Elijah Mitchell, SF
The San Francisco 49ers had seven goal-line carries in Week 10. Coming into the week, they had just 16, so they saw nearly a 50% increase this week alone. The split was intriguing, with McCaffrey having four of the carries, Mitchell two, and Garoppolo one. McCaffrey’s goal-line carries were spread throughout the game, while Mitchell’s came inside the final two minutes.
What makes that intriguing is that the 49ers had just a three-point lead and were attempting to put the game away at that stage. Therefore, it was interesting to see that Mitchell is the back that went into the game at that stage rather than McCaffrey. Prior to that, McCaffrey had all of the goal-line usage and the majority of the short-yardage duty elsewhere on the field.
This 49ers’ backfield is especially interesting after what we saw in Week 10. The way the goal-line carries played out still makes McCaffrey the main option, but Mitchell appears to have more value than it first seemed like he might, even if his goal-line carries appear limited for the most part.
With Josh Allen dealing with his elbow injury, we saw a lot more of Singletary around the goal line this week than we had previously. Entering the game, the goal-line split was seven carries for Allen and three for Singletary. However, Singletary doubled his goal-line carries for the season in this game and found the end zone twice.
Whether that continues as Allen’s elbow gets healthier really holds a lot of weight on Singletary’s fantasy value. With Singletary averaging just 10.2 rushing attempts per game and having only seen more than five targets once this season, he needs goal-line carries if he is to have significant fantasy value on a consistent basis.
The goal-line picture in Washington is really tricky to decipher. This week, we saw an even split between Robinson and Gibson. The last such carries for the Commanders were handled by Robinson and Heinicke, but Gibson is clearly still part of the picture. While both continue to see work around the goal line, it will hurt both the floor and ceiling of the other.
Barkley and Jacobs are merely a footnote here. Both are the main back for their team and continue to dominate the goal-line work. Both remain solid week-to-week starters.
Given we saw a balancing of the roles that Fournette and Rachaad White have in this offense, the goal-line work is important to note. Both of the first two goal-line carries went to Fournette, with which he found the end zone on the second such attempt. While White saw a goal-line attempt in the fourth quarter, it came after Fournette was hurt. For as long as Fournette continues to have the goal line work, he would retain fantasy value.
Despite Williams having two goal-line carries this week, his grip on the role may actually have loosened a little. While he had the first carry, it was D’Andre Swift who came in and took the second carry, this one from the 1-yard line.
However, it was Williams who had the third carry, finding the end zone for the game-winning touchdown late in the fourth quarter. If Swift does start mixing in more, it will limit Williams’ upside as a weekly fantasy option. However, right now, Williams is still the primary goal-line back for the Lions, meaning he has weekly starting value for fantasy managers.
RB Goal-Line Passing Usage in Week 10 and the 2022 NFL Season
Week 10 saw just one target for an RB inside the 5-yard line, Jonathan Taylor. Extending that out to get a larger sample size and examining the RB target inside the 10-yard line, then we still only see three RBs with targets in that region. Let’s take a look at the backs that saw those targets and what they mean in the wider context of their fantasy value.
Jonathan Taylor, IND: It might be a surprise that this was the first time Taylor has seen a target inside both the 10- and 5-yard line this season. However, it should not be, given Taylor had just one such target last season. It will be intriguing to see whether Taylor’s first target inside the 10-yard line coming in Jeff Saturday’s first game is a sign of more such targets to come.
Austin Ekeler, LAC: This was Ekeler’s eighth target inside the 10-yard line this season. With Mike Williams and Keenan Allen remaining out of the picture, Ekeler’s goal-line receiving role has been key for the Chargers. His work in and around the goal line means there is no question over his fantasy value, despite a down week in Week 10.
Elijah Mitchell, SF: Mitchell’s target from the seven-yard line further adds to a confusing picture in San Francisco. Mitchell had been brought into the drive after McCaffrey had driven them inside the red zone. McCaffrey had seen the only such target the week before.
While RB goal-line receiving attempts have minimal impact on fantasy value, it does provide upside for Mitchell as a fantasy asset. Additionally, it caps the ceiling for McCaffrey, with Mitchell clearly set to mix in significantly.
What Is the Significance of Red-Zone and Goal-Line Carries for Fantasy?
Utilizing data going back to 2013 (including 2022), we can see where RBs find the most value in terms of fantasy points (fpts) per rushing attempt. The average value of a single rushing attempt anywhere on the field in that time span is 0.6 fpts.
However, as you would expect, we see a clear increase in value the closer we get to the goal line. Rushes between the 10- and 6-yard lines average 1.00 fpts per rush on average.
Meanwhile, from the 5-yard line inwards, we see a huge jump in value to 2.55 fpts per rushing attempt. That value continues to rise as we move closer to the goal, with rushes from the 1-yard line averaging 3.4 fpts per rush attempt.
However, the most significant jump in value comes when we move from the 10 to six region to the 5-yard line (+1.55 fpts per rush). Therefore, for this article, we will focus on rushes beginning from the opponents’ 5-yard line or closer.