On the field, DK Metcalf is one of the most imposing physical threats on the perimeter. He’s been one of the highest valued receivers in dynasty fantasy football due to his unique blend of size and speed. Yet, 2022 will be a challenging year for the 24-year-old receiver entering a contract year. Given the offseason changes to the Seattle Seahawks roster, how has Metcalf’s value changed, and what should managers do if he is on their fantasy roster?
DK Metcalf’s dynasty profile for 2022
We are in the post-Russell Wilson era in Seattle. That is a worrying statement for any season-long or dynasty manager investing in this roster. There is a legitimate case that both Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are among the two biggest fantasy “losers” of the offseason.
The way things stand right now, Drew Lock is projected to be the starting QB in Seattle (unless there’s a surprise, and it’s still-unsigned Geno Smith). I hope a change of scenery does Lock some good, allowing him to become the gunslinger we saw coming out of Missouri.
The issue is the word hope. I hope this happens. I hope Lock can play well. When Wilson was under center, hope wasn’t the word being used. Wilson is an MVP-caliber QB who has finished as a QB1 (top-12) every year except for his injury-shortened 2021 season. He is consistent and raises the floor and ceiling of those around him.
Lock is an unproven QB looking for one last shot to be a starter. In 24 games (21 starts), Lock has thrown for 4,740 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions with a 59.3% completion rate. In 2020, when Lock was Denver’s starting QB (12 games), Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy combined for five top-24 fantasy weeks. That’s it. Lock will need to take a gigantic step forward for someone like Metcalf to maintain his value.
Metcalf is still a top tier dynasty asset
While Metcalf’s situation may seem doomed, we have to focus on the multi-year aspect of dynasty. Metcalf has shown us he is a top-tier receiver through three years in the NFL. He is a 24-year-old, mold-breaking athlete with a 1,300-yard campaign and two double-digit TD seasons.
Metcalf, along with Lockett, was the beneficiary of a vertical offense. In 2021, he was seventh in the NFL in air yards (1,636), while Lockett was 11th at 1,175. The issue for Metcalf has been his boom-or-bust nature on those same targets, as he converted just 59% of those air yards into actual receiving yards. Due to his deeper average depth of target (13.6 career aDOT), his targets have less margin for error.
It’s one of the reasons why Metcalf has been able to finish as the WR7 and WR12 in his last two seasons (15.7 PPR/game) while finishing as a WR2 or better just 42% of the time. When he hits, he hits big. However, the floor is alarmingly low for a player of his caliber.
Bet on talent, not just situation
As noted, we have to take a multi-year approach to things in dynasty. As for Metcalf, 2022 might be his last season in Seattle, as there have been widely reported trade conversations. He was not a first-round pick, meaning the Seahawks don’t have a fifth-year option to exercise. Metcalf is slated to hit free agency next year, along with A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, Marquise Brown, and Diontae Johnson. The way things look, several of these players could be switching teams.
That’s also why I bet on talent and not just situation. As we know, situations change. While the landing spot is massive, if you aren’t talented, it doesn’t matter. Metcalf is one of the most overtly athletic receivers in the NFL and is still getting better. Whether he’s with Seattle or on a new team, I’m putting my money on talent. Even with the questions surrounding 2022, Metcalf is still a low-end WR1 for dynasty. If you can acquire him at top-24 value, even better.
Fantasy projection for Metcalf
During the post-Wilson-trade press conference, Pete Carroll and John Schneider cited a five-game stretch during Lock’s rookie season (2019) when he went 4-1. For reference, this was from Weeks 13 through 17 against the Chargers, Texans, Chiefs, Lions, and Raiders. Lock completed 64.1% of his passes in that stretch, averaged 204 yards per game, had 7 TDs to 3 INTs, and earned an 89.7 QBR.
However, it’s the quality of the opponent that matters. The Chargers were 26th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA, the Texans were 23rd, the Chiefs were 24th, the Lions were 29th, and the Raiders were 17th. Lock was not trying to push the ball during that stretch, as he averaged 6.5 intended air yards per throw. For Metcalf to succeed, he needs the 2020 version of Lock, when he averaged 8.8 yards (No. 1 among starting QBs) and had 65 attempts of 20 yards or more.
We saw a glimpse of the post-Wilson era last season
If it is Smith under center in Seattle, we already have a small sample size of his work with Metcalf. In his three starts last season, Smith completed 70.5% of his passes while averaging 190.3 yards per game with a 4:0 TD-to-INT ratio.
In those three games, Metcalf was still good for fantasy. He was the WR8 in PPR while averaging 17.2 PPR/game thanks to 14-of-18 receiving with 197 yards and 3 touchdowns. He received 25% of the team targets, 34% of the WR targets, and all of Smith’s passing touchdowns to receivers.
This is a 1000% too small of a sample size to project out, and Smith is still a free agent. But it could be a small glimpse into the post-Wilson era. Metcalf’s value is directly tied with big plays. Some splash plays occur as he runs under a deep ball, while he naturally creates others with his skill set. Those latter receptions are the ones that are “QB proof.”
Metcalf has a wide range of outcomes for 2022. He could be a top-five receiver or a high-end WR3, similar to Courtland Sutton in 2020. Sutton finished as the WR25 in fantasy points per game and was Denver’s only viable receiver on a weekly basis. Regardless of who is under center in 2022, Metcalf won’t be as stable as he was last year. But at the right ADP, the upside is still worth chasing.