Despite losing some key players ahead of the 2025 college football season, there was a sense of optimism around Mobile over the South Alabama Jaguars. The program finished strongly last fall, and the second year under Major Applewhite promised much. However, it’s delivered little, leaving the Jaguars far short of where many thought they might be in the 2025 campaign.
Can South Alabama win the Sun Belt Conference in 2025? The better question might be whether they can win more than one game, as they get set to face the Georgia State Panthers in Week 9.
What are the Chances of South Alabama Winning the Sun Belt?
According to the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter (FPM), the chances of South Alabama winning the Sun Belt are, well, minuscule. Get those Lloyd Christmas GIFs at the ready because Applewhite’s team has just a 0.03% chance of reaching the Sun Belt Championship Game, and only a 0.02% chance of actually winning the conference at the end of the 2025 college campaign.
Entering Week 9 with a 1-6 record, with the only win coming over FCS outfit Morgan State on opening weekend, the 2025 season has been bleak for the Jaguars.
The defense, once such a strong suit for South Alabama, is the 112th-ranked unit in the country, earning just a 69.2 PFSN College Defense Impact score. Without Gio Lopez at the helm, the offense ranks just 87th, thanks to a 73.3 PFSN College Offense Impact score. The offensive line play has been below average, compounding issues for QB Bishop Davenport.
In addition to winning the Sun Belt being a long shot for the Jaguars, they’re teetering on the brink of being ineligible for Bowl Season. South Alabama has been to a bowl game for the past three seasons (compiling a 2-1 record), but currently has just a 5.1% chance of hitting the requisite six wins for playing postseason football.
Remaining South Alabama Football Schedule
- at Georgia State Panthers
- vs. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
- at Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
- vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
- at Texas State Bobcats
So, how does South Alabama get to the magic six wins required for bowl eligibility? Well, with great difficulty. The Week 9 clash with Georgia State is a must-win, and the Jaguars are favored with a 54.5% win probability. Home advantage against a Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns team going through its own issues could be a major factor in moving Applewhite’s team to 3-6.
However, road trips to Louisiana-Monroe and Texas State are far from a slam dunk for the Jaguars. South Alabama also has the Southern Miss Golden Eagles on their slate, a game that would historically be earmarked as an easy win. However, under Charles Huff, Southern Miss is a program on the rise, and looms as the most difficult game on the Jaguars’ remaining schedule.
