Heading into Week 14, the SEC Championship Game scenarios still had four potential teams that could fill the two available spots at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with no one having clinched a berth in Atlanta.
As the final weekend of the regular season progresses, the probabilities have moved a little, and the scenarios updated following an Ole Miss win and Texas A&M loss.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine who is still in the mix and what their chances are of making it to the postseason.
Which Teams Are Still Competing to Play in the SEC Championship Game?
Entering the final week, four teams could still make the SEC Championship Game. Let’s take a look at how those teams who finished the year, and their respective SEC Conference Game chances:
- Georgia (11-1, 7-1): 100%
- Alabama (10-2, 7-1): 100%
- Ole Miss (11-1, 7-1): 0%
- Texas A&M (11-1, 7-1): 0%
With all games complete in the 2025 SEC regular season, the SEC Championship Game matchup is set. The Alabama Crimson Tide and Georgia Bulldogs will meet in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, renewing a long-running and always exciting rivalry matchup on the big stage. Alabama’s win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl put paid to any hopes Ole Miss had of landing a conference title.
Georgia’s SEC Championship Game Chances
Entering Week 14, the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter game the Georgia Bulldogs a 54.1% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game. They completed their conference campaign a week ago, finishing with a 7-1 record. Kirby Smart’s team took care of a final regular season win against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, but were powerless to events in the SEC.
Thankfully for the Bulldogs, exactly what they needed to happen to secure a return to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in successive weeks happened. With Texas A&M losing to the Texas Longhorns in a Friday night thriller, the Bulldogs will return to the SEC Championship Game against Alabama.
Alabama’s SEC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gave Alabama a 74.6% chance of playing in the SEC Championship Game entering their remaining conference game at Auburn. The PFSN College FPM gave them a 73.9% chance of winning that game, and while it was closer than expected, the Crimson Tide prevailed.
Alabama had the worst overall record of all four remaining SEC teams in the SEC Championship hunt entering Week 14. Still, they actually held their SEC Championship Game destiny in their own hands and carried it over the goal line to book their spot in the title game against Georgia.
Ole Miss’ SEC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gave Ole Miss a 25.6% chance of playing in the SEC Championship Game after beating the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the 2025 edition of the Egg Bowl. Despite the rumors swirling around head coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels were dominant, taking care of their end of the bargain as it pertained to the SEC Championship Game.
With a head-to-head loss against Georgia and the weakest conference schedule of the bunch, the Rebels had the most working against them on the climb to the SEC Championship Game. They got the Texas A&M loss required, but Alabama’s win in the Iron Bowl eliminated the team from contention.
Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Game Chances
Black Friday couldn’t have gone any worse for the Texas A&M Aggies. They entered Week 14 with a 62.0% chance of playing in the SEC Championship Game. However, the Ole Miss win in the Egg Bowl removed one of their potential pathways early on an exciting and transformational slate of holiday action.
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Nonetheless, Texas A&M still held their own destiny in their hands entering the Lone Star Showdown with bitter rivals Texas. A win, and they would be playing in Atlanta. However, Mike Elko’s men couldn’t live up to the expectations, and fell to the Longhorns in a game that left Steve Sarkisian fired up, and the Aggies with nothing to do in Week 15 but wait to find out their College Football Playoff fate.
SEC Two-Team Tiebreakers
If two teams are tied for first place in the standings, they will both participate in the Championship Game. However, the tiebreaking procedure outlined below will be used to determine which team is considered the home team and which is considered the road team. In the event of a tie for second place in the standings, the following process will be followed to decide who will play in the SEC Championship Game.
1) The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
2) Win percentage against common opponents within the conference.
3) Win percentage against common opponents based on the order of finish. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table. If a group of common opponents is tied, then the head-to-head tiebreaker will be applied for that tie, and if it cannot split them, the combined record against the tied teams will be used.
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4) The combined record of all conference opponents for each team. If, for any reason, one team has played fewer than nine conference games, the winning percentage will be used as opposed to the record.
5) Each team’s ranking by SportsSource Analytics’ capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among tied teams.
6) Random draw.
SEC Three (or More) Team Tiebreakers
If, after any step in the following procedure, one or two teams are either superior or inferior to the others, they are removed from the tiebreaking procedure, and the remaining teams either go to the two-team tiebreaker or return to the start of the three-team tiebreaking procedure.
1) If all teams played each other, then the records for those teams in those games would be compared.
2) If all the teams did not play each other, but one team either defeated or was defeated by ALL the other teams, they shall be removed from the tiebreaking procedure.
3) Winning percentage of all teams against common conference opponents among all the teams involved in the tie. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table. If a group of common opponents is tied, then the head-to-head tiebreaker will be applied for that tie, and if it cannot split them, the combined record against the tied teams will be used.
4) The combined record of all conference opponents for each team. If, for any reason, one team has played fewer than nine conference games, the winning percentage will be used as opposed to the record.
5) Each team’s ranking by SportsSource Analytics’ capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among tied teams.
6) Random draw.
If multiple teams are tied for top spot in the SEC standings, and two teams emerge as superior after any step, those two teams shall contest the SEC Championship Game. A two-team tiebreaker will be applied to determine the home and road designation.
How the SEC Tiebreakers Worked in Practice
The 2024 season provided us with an opportunity to see the two-team tiebreaker in action. Georgia and Tennessee were tied for second place in the SEC standings with a 6-2 record. As Georgia had beaten Tennessee on November 16, the Bulldogs advanced to the SEC Conference Championship Game to face Texas.