After dismantling one of the nation’s top offenses in Washington and holding them to just six points, the Ohio State Buckeyes defense looks like an all-timer as they aim to repeat as national champions. Standing in their way is a tough Minnesota team that has looked the part at times but hasn’t quite put it all together this season.
Ohio State vs. Minnesota Game Details
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 4, 2025
- Game time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Ohio Stadium | Columbus, Ohio
- Predicted Weather at Kick: 65 degrees, Partly Cloudy, light Winds
- How To Watch: NBC
Ohio State vs. Minnesota Head-to-Head Record
Ohio State should consider getting legal custody over Minnesota, given how dominant and one-sided this matchup has been. Since 1921, the Buckeyes are 47-7 against the Golden Gophers and currently own a five-game win streak from 2014 to 2023. If you ignore the vacated 52-10 win in 2010, the on-field win streak extends to 13 straight.
The last time Minnesota won was in October 2000, when they went into the Shoe and won 29-17. That was just one of four seasons this century in which the Buckeyes did not win more than 80% of their games.
Ohio State vs. Minnesota PFSN Grades
PFSN College OFFi
- Ohio State (88.7, B+)
- Minnesota (77.1, C+)
PFSN College DEFi
- Ohio State (95.0, A)
- Minnesota (81.9, B-)
PFSN College OLi
- Ohio State (91.9, A-)
- Minnesota (74.1, C)
PFSN College QBi
- Julian Sayin, Ohio State (82.7, B-)
- Drake Lindsey, Minnesota (81.2, B-)
PFSN College RBi
- CJ Donaldson, Ohio State (73.3, C)
- No Qualifying Players
PFSN College WRi
- Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (84.0, B)
- Le’Meke Brockington, Minnesota (76.6, C)
PFSN College TEi
- Will Kacmarek, Ohio State (82.5, B-)
- Jameson Geers, Minnesota (76.1, C)
PFSN College EDGEi
- Caden Curry, Ohio State (92.6, A-)
- Anthony Smith, Minnesota (83.3, B)
PFSN College DTi
- Kayden McDonald, Ohio State (82.4, B-)
- Deven Eastern, Minnesota (73.5, C)
PFSN College LBi
- Arvell Reese, Ohio State (82.1, B-)
- Maverick Baranowski, Minnesota (71.9, C-)
PFSN College CBi
- Jermaine Mathews Jr., Ohio State (82.4, B)
- John Nestor, Minnesota (92.2, A-)
PFSN College SAFi
- Caleb Downs, Ohio State (85.4, B)
- Kerry Brown, Minnesota (77.2, C+)
Ohio State vs. Minnesota Prediction
According to TruMedia, Ohio State has allowed just 22 points this season. Since 2019, their 5.5 points allowed per game is the best mark of any FBS team. Even when adjusted for games played, they remain tied for first in lowest points allowed per game. At this point, they shouldn’t just be considered a great defense — they are an all-time level defense.
Looking back, there was no way to have predicted this before the season started. After losing seven defensive starters to the draft, including an absurd four defensive linemen, the Buckeyes have seen breakouts from Caden Curry and Kayden McDonald, who rank sixth and 27th at their respective positions in our impact scoring.
Even more impressive, Arvell Reese has exploded this season, with some scouts claiming he could be drafted before the nation’s best defender and teammate, Caleb Downs. Hiring Matt Patricia has done wonders for this defense, arguably surpassing what Jim Knowles achieved with a more experienced unit.
Minnesota’s offense ranks 28th in rushing success rate but just 92nd in rushing EPA (expected points added), suggesting the ability to churn out consistent rushes without producing many explosive plays. This aligns with their ranking of 99th in percentage of 10+ yard runs.
This is a brutal matchup against an Ohio State defense that ranks 18th in explosive play rate allowed and 15th in explosive run rate allowed. Minnesota also plays the 10th most man coverage in the nation, which is unfortunate for a team facing Ohio State receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate on the outside.
One caveat for those who rely on statistics and metrics: Ohio State technically ranks 122nd in EPA against man coverage. That is solely because they have faced it less than all but six FBS teams due to how dangerous their receivers can be.
Prediction: Ohio State 35, Minnesota 7
