The College Football Playoff made changes this offseason. Just not the ones fans, coaches, or conferences were pushing for.
Despite strong pressure from the SEC to expand to 16 teams and even more ambitious ideas from the Big Ten about jumping all the way to a 24-team format, the playoff will remain at 12 teams for at least one more year. No agreement was reached on expansion, leaving the overall structure intact while adjusting the rules in ways that could have massive consequences.
2026 CFP Rule Changes
The Big Ten, in particular, wants to see how the selection committee evaluates teams this fall after the ACC and SEC move to nine-game conference schedules beginning next season. With more conference games comes an expectation of more two- and three-loss teams in the mix with the extra competition added to the schedule, and league officials want to see how the committee handles that reality before committing to a larger field.
Ironically, expansion was the change most fans expected and wanted to get done. Instead, the CFP opted for smaller changes that may prove far more controversial.
The first major adjustment is that automatic bids now go to each Power 4 conference champion, the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC, regardless of national ranking. A conference champion no longer needs to meet a ranking threshold to qualify.
The second change involves Notre Dame. Under the new rules, the Irish are guaranteed a playoff spot if they finish inside the top 12 of the final CFP rankings. They can no longer be pushed out simply because they do not play in a conference championship game.
The final, and most impactful, change is that with four automatic bids locked in for the Power 4, the Group of 6 conferences are still limited to just one guaranteed spot. That keeps the total number of automatic bids at five and tightens an already narrow path for non-power programs.
Last Season Showed the Cracks in the System
This past season highlighted the exact problem the committee is trying to address, and arguably made it worse.
Two Group of 5 teams, Tulane and James Madison, made the playoff field over ACC champion Duke. Duke finished the season with five losses, but three of those were out of conference, which kept them eligible for the ACC title. They went on to win the conference, yet were still left out of the playoffs.
Under the new rules, that outcome would not have been possible.
If these changes had been in place last season, ACC champion Duke would have qualified automatically, and Notre Dame would have been safely in as a top-12 team. That would have pushed Miami, the No. 10 seed that went on to reach the national championship game, out of the field entirely. James Madison also would have been excluded.
And that’s where the controversy deepens. James Madison arguably deserved a spot over Duke. While Duke fielded a strong offense that averaged 34.6 points per game (16th nationally), the defense was a major liability, ranking 100th in PFSN’s CFB Defensive Impact Grades. JMU, by contrast, was far more balanced, averaging 37.1 points per game while pairing it with a top-10 defense.
Whether that outcome is right or wrong is beside the point; that is simply what would have happened.
Miami’s Absence Would’ve Changed Everything
The seedings alone would have sparked outrage.
Duke likely would have slid into the 12 seed, setting up a matchup with Oregon. Notre Dame probably lands at No. 10, facing Texas A&M in the first round. Those matchups alone would have sent the college football world into chaos.
Duke making the playoffs with five losses would have been viewed by many as proof of the ACC’s overall weakness. Miami fans, and plenty of neutral observers, would have been furious watching Notre Dame get an automatic spot over a Miami team that beat them head-to-head.
Not seeing that ferocious Miami defense, which was ranked within the top 5 according to PFSN CFB Defensive Impact Grade, go to work and lead the Hurricanes all the way to the CFP championship would’ve been unfortunate. The Notre Dame, although also worthy, bias conversation would have dominated every discussion show in the country.
At the same time, there is a valid counterargument. Miami may have been included only because the committee felt the need to ensure ACC representation. Without that pressure, Duke’s low ranking as a conference champion would have made inclusion under the old system impossible.
That contradiction is exactly what these changes expose.
The Expansion and Changes Everyone Wanted
This is why so many believed expanding to 16 teams was the cleanest solution. Automatic bids for the four Power 4 champions and one Group of 5 champion, with the rest of the field filled by at-large teams, would have provided flexibility without forcing in teams and causing mass hysteria of who should’ve been in compared to who was actually in.
Group of 5 supporters won’t like this, and it absolutely feels like a direct shot, because it is. And the situation is about to get even tougher. With the Pac-12 set to return in 2026, the sport is effectively moving from a Group of 5 to a Group of 6, all fighting for just one guaranteed playoff spot.
That bottleneck is only going to get tighter.
Remove Miami from last year’s playoff field, and the entire postseason changes.
Miami doesn’t make the national title game, which opens the door for countless alternate paths. Notre Dame could have made another deep run similar to the year before. Ohio State might have survived and advanced under different matchups. Ole Miss, under Pete Golding with limited head-coaching experience and no Lane Kiffin, could have found itself in the middle of a shocking playoff run.
That’s the real takeaway. These are not minor adjustments. They are changes that completely reshape paths, matchups, and championships. For now, we get at least one more season of a 12-team playoff, but volatility is ahead. More conference games mean more losses. More losses mean more debates. And more debates mean more outrage.
At this point, chaos feels inevitable, and somehow, every season manages to one-up the last.
So good luck to the CFP committee, and especially chairman Hunter Yurachek, when it comes time to sort out the 2026 field. Because if this year proved anything, it’s that even the smallest changes can flip college football completely upside down.
