College football fans have had plenty of complaints about the AP Poll rankings this season, but the good news is that the first College Football Playoff ranking drops on Tuesday.
It should provide fans with a clear view of the committee’s thinking as the regular season nears its end. Here’s a prediction of what the first College Football Playoff ranking could look like.
As a quick reminder, 12 teams make the College Football Playoff. The champions of the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, and ACC all receive automatic bids, along with the highest-ranked Group of Six champion. That leaves seven at-large spots for the rest of the field.
25) James Madison Dukes
James Madison has one of the most compelling cases for making the CFP among any Group of Six teams this season. The Dukes are 7-1, with their only loss coming to Louisville, a team you’ll see later in this prediction.
They still face somewhat of an uphill battle to make the CFP, with PFSN’s CFB Playoff Meter (FPM) giving them a 27.74% chance to do so, but they undoubtedly deserve recognition from the committee.
24) Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee has had a rough season, sitting at 6-3 through nine games. Their losses have all come against strong teams, including Alabama, Oklahoma, and Georgia, which is why they’ll likely remain in the Top 25.
After the Volunteers’ Week 10 loss to the Sooners, their playoff hopes have grown grim, with PFSN’s FPM giving them just a 0.48% chance to make it.
23) Washington Huskies
Washington has quietly put together a strong season in the Big Ten. Through eight games, the Huskies are 6-2, with losses to Michigan and Ohio State.
While they don’t have any massive wins, they’re coming off a dominant Week 9 performance against Illinois, which is why it makes sense for the committee to include them in the Top 25. PFSN’s FPM gives Washington a 14.29% chance to make the CFP.
22) Memphis Tigers
8-1 Memphis will likely be the highest-ranked Group of Six team in the first CFP ranking, which would put them in the playoff if it happened today, as the best Group of Six program automatically receives a bid.
The Tigers have recorded impressive wins over USF and Arkansas, with their only loss coming to UAB. They will likely need to win out to make the CFP, and PFSN’s FPM gives them a 14.97% chance to do so.
21) Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines have had a strange 2025. They’ve recorded some impressive victories, including the one over Washington, but have also lost key games against USC and Oklahoma.
Michigan deserves to be ranked in the Top 25, but not much higher than this. The Wolverines still hold a 41.57% chance to make the CFP according to PFSN’s FPM, so their season isn’t over yet, despite their likely low spot in the first CFP ranking.
20) USC Trojans
USC has also had an up-and-down 2025 season. The Trojans sit at 6-2 and have wins over competitive Big Ten programs, including Nebraska and Michigan. However, they suffered a bad loss to Illinois and were dominated by Notre Dame.
They’ll undoubtedly make the first CFP Top 25, and PFSN’s FPM gives them a 36.71% chance to make the playoff.
19) Miami Hurricanes
Miami started the 2025 season on a hot streak, winning its first five games, including impressive victories over Notre Dame, Florida, USF, and Florida State. However, the Hurricanes have lost two of their last three, including a Week 10 defeat to SMU.
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Given the quality of their wins, Miami should be ranked somewhere in the 15-20 range, but their two losses make it hard to place them higher. As a two-loss ACC team, their playoff hopes are bleak, with only a 0.89% chance of making it, according to PFSN’s FPM.
18) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Before their Week 10 loss to NC State, Georgia Tech likely would have been a top-ten team in the first CFP ranking. The loss to an unranked opponent will likely drop them out of the top 15. The good news for the Yellow Jackets is that they are still in a strong position to make the CFP with an 8-1 record, with PFSN’s FPM giving them a 30.21% chance.
17) Missouri Tigers
Missouri is right in the middle of the SEC pack. They sit at 6-2 through eight games, with losses to Vanderbilt and Alabama. The Tigers haven’t beaten anyone impressive enough to boost their ranking much higher, but they should fall somewhere in this range.
Missouri has a 5.17% chance of making the CFP, according to PFSN’s FPM, and will need to win at least three of its last four games to have any hope of doing so.
16) Utah Utes
Utah has had a strong season in a competitive Big 12. They sit at 7-2 with impressive wins over Arizona State and Cincinnati, but they have struggled against the upper tier of the conference, losing to Texas Tech and BYU.
Given their dominant performance against Cincinnati in Week 10, they should be ranked somewhere in the top 20. However, they aren’t a top-tier program and have slim odds of making the CFP, with PFSN’s FPM giving them a 3.45% chance.
15) Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt has had an impressive season by any standard, sitting at 7-2 through nine games. Their two losses came against Texas and Alabama, but they also have decisive wins over Missouri and LSU.
With their loss to Texas in Week 10, the committee will likely not rank them in the top 12, but they still have a shot at making the CFP, with PFSN’s FPM giving them a 22.9% chance.
14) Louisville Cardinals
Louisville has put together an impressive resume this season, boasting a 7-1 record through eight games. They have beaten every team they’ve played fairly handily, including Miami, with their only loss coming to Virginia.
The Cardinals have a chance to get revenge on the Cavaliers in the ACC championship game, which would solidify their CFP spot. Louisville currently holds a 25.61% chance of making it, according to PFSN’s FPM.
13) Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma will likely be just on the outside of the playoff, looking in, in the first CFP rankings. The Sooners are a two-loss team, with defeats to Ole Miss and Texas, but they also have substantial victories over Michigan and Tennessee.
It will be interesting to see exactly where they rank, but it’s hard to imagine them any higher than this. Oklahoma will need to win out to make the CFP, and PFSN’s FPM gives them a 16.2% chance of doing so.
12) Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia has been the biggest surprise of the 2025 season. They sit at 8-1 through eight games, with their only loss coming against NC State. The Cavaliers have impressive wins over Louisville and Florida State, and they are currently in a prime position to win the ACC.
It’s hard to imagine the committee ranking Georgia Tech, Miami, or Louisville above Virginia, so they should be the highest-ranked ACC team. If that holds, they would make the playoffs. Virginia will need to finish the season strong to retain its spot, and it has a 27.26% chance of making the CFP, according to PFSN’s FPM.
11) Texas Longhorns
At one point this season, it looked like Texas might be unranked by the time the first CFP ranking rolled around, but the Longhorns completely turned their season around. Texas is 7-2, with losses to Ohio State and Florida.
While the loss to the Gators isn’t great for their resume, wins over Vanderbilt and Oklahoma help. The Longhorns would be just outside the CFP if these were the final rankings, but they’re hopes aren’t dead. PFSN’s FPM gives them a 24.65% chance to make it.
10) Texas Tech Red Raiders
If these were the final College Football Playoff rankings, Texas Tech would be the last team to make the CFP, joining Virginia (ACC champion) and Memphis (Group of Six champion), who would have already secured their spots, along with every other team listed in the rest of the rankings.
The Red Raiders sit at 8-1 this season, with their lone loss to Arizona State. Their offense has been solid, ranking 28th in the country according to PFSN’s CFB OFFi metric, while their defense has been one of the nation’s best, ranking third in PFSN’s CFB DEFi metric.
It’s hard to imagine a world where the committee ranks Texas Tech outside the top ten, given their performance this season. The Red Raiders currently have a 40.73% chance of making the CFP, according to PFSN’s FPM.
9) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
In no way, shape, or form do I believe Notre Dame should be ranked this high; however, the committee has consistently shown an inherent bias toward the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame has two losses this season to Miami and Texas A&M by a combined four points, but they’re still a two-loss team nonetheless.
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Their offense grades out well, ranking 23rd in the country according to PFSN’s CFB OFFi metric, and their defense sits close behind at 24th in PFSN’s CFB DEFi metric. It’ll be interesting to see where the committee places the Fighting Irish, but it’s hard to imagine them falling outside the top 10.
Notre Dame remains in a solid position to make the CFP, with PFSN’s PFM currently giving them a 40.97% chance.
8) Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss has had as good a season as they could have hoped for in 2025. They sit at 8-1 through nine games, with their lone loss coming at the hands of Georgia. The committee will undoubtedly put the Rebels in the top ten, though it may place them a spot higher or lower.
Ole Miss’s offense has been strong this season, ranking 14th in the country in PFSN’s CFB OFFi metric, while the Rebels’ defense has also performed well, ranking 31st in the nation according to PFSN’s CFB DEFi metric.
With a relatively easy schedule remaining, Ole Miss should be able to finish the year around this ranking, and they have a 92.82% chance to make the CFP according to PFSN’s FPM
7) Oregon Ducks
Oregon is seeking its second consecutive CFP appearance and is on the right path, sitting at 7-1 so far this season. The Ducks haven’t beaten anyone great, with their best win coming against Penn State, but their only loss came at the hands of Indiana.
Oregon should be ranked in the five to eight range in the first CFP ranking this season, and they’ve looked like a top-ten team all year. Their offense ranks 13th in the nation in PFSN’s CFB OFFi metric, while their defense ranks 14th in PFSN’s CFB DEFi metric.
Barring an unexpected loss, this should be the range in which Oregon finishes the season. They’re in a strong position to secure a playoff spot, with PFSN’s FPM giving them a 60.93% chance to make the CFP.
6) Georgia Bulldogs
Once again, Georgia looks like one of the best teams in the country, sitting at 7-1, and it’s hard to imagine they’ll be ranked any lower than No. 6 in the first CFP rankings. They have impressive wins over Ole Miss and Tennessee, with their only loss this season coming against Alabama.
While the Bulldogs’ resume is strong, they grade out worse than many would expect, with their offense ranking 25th in the country in PFSN’s CFB OFFi metric and their defense ranking 55th according to PFSN’s CFB DEFi metric.
Despite those relatively lackluster grades, the Bulldogs continue to find ways to win football games and should make the CFP. PFSN’s FPM gives them a 79.39% chance to do so.
5) BYU Cougars
While BYU may not have faced the same level of competition as Georgia, Ole Miss, or even Oregon, being undefeated at this stage of the season is impressive and challenging to achieve. The committee will likely give them credit for that by placing them in the top five.
BYU’s best win of the season came against Utah, but the Cougars have handled every team they’ve faced all year. Their offense has been strong, ranking No. 29 in the country in PFSN’s CFB OFFi metric, while their defense ranks No. 18 in PFSN’s CFB DEFi metric.
BYU currently holds the top spot in the Big 12, and if they can maintain that, they’ll likely finish the season as a top-five team in the CFP rankings. They have a 58.82% chance to make the CFP according to PFSN’s FPM, and there’s been nothing to suggest they aren’t the best team in their conference this season.
4) Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama started the year with a loss to Florida State, but has rattled off seven straight wins and looks like one of the best teams in the country. It’s hard to point to a better resume than the Crimson Tide’s, with wins over Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Missouri. However, the loss to the unranked Seminoles will likely keep them out of the top three.
Alabama has looked dominant this season, with the Crimson Tide’s offense ranking 8th in the nation according to PFSN’s CFB OFFi metric and their defense ranking No. 17 in PFSN’s CFB DEFi metric.
It’s hard to imagine Alabama finishing the season outside the top seven, and they are all but guaranteed to make the CFP, with PFSN’s FPM giving them a 91.05% chance.
3) Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M has been a surprise this season. While many expected the Aggies to be good, few thought they’d be 8-0 heading into the first CFP ranking. Texas A&M will likely fall somewhere in the top three in the first ranking, and I think three is a solid spot.
The Aggies’ offense has performed well this year, ranking 19th in the country according to PFSN’s CFB OFFi metric, while their defense has been even better, ranking No. 12 in PFSN’s CFB DEFi metric.
Texas A&M has put itself in a fantastic spot to make its first-ever CFP appearance, holding a 95.84% chance according to PFSN’s FPM.
2) Ohio State Buckeyes
This prediction will likely spark controversy, but it’s important to remember that the committee isn’t basing its rankings on previous AP or coaches’ polls and that this is an entirely fresh look at the 2025 season.
The Buckeyes have been great, with their offense ranking 4th in the country according to PFSN’s CFB OFFi metric and their defense ranking No. 2 in PFSN’s CFB DEFi metric. However, the fact of the matter is their resume just isn’t as strong as the team ahead of them.
There’s a chance that Ohio State will be ranked No. 1, but given how the committee has historically judged programs, I believe they’ll be behind Indiana in the first ranking. Regardless, the Buckeyes will undoubtedly make the CFP, with PFSN’s FPM giving them a 98.49% chance to do so.
1) Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana has been the best team in college football this season, boasting a 9-0 record after nine games. The Hoosiers have dominated every team they’ve played, with impressive wins over Oregon and Illinois, and they’ll undoubtedly be in the top two of the first CFP ranking.
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Indiana’s offense has been truly elite this season, ranking second in the country according to PFSN’s CFB OFFi metric. Its defense has been even better, ranking first in the nation in PFSN’s CFB DEFi metric.
The Hoosiers are well on their way to making the CFP and should be a top-five team no matter what at the end of the season. They hold a 99.35% chance of making the playoffs, according to PFSN’s FPM, the highest odds in the country.