PFSN College Football Playoff Meter (FPM) simulates the remaining CFB schedule 100,000 times to calculate the outcome of every FBS team in the 2025-26 season. The college FPM uses our proprietary metrics to give every team a points spread against the average opponent, which is then used to fuel our simulation engine.
Our FPM produces data points on each team's expected number of wins and losses, their chances of making the conference championship game, winning the conference, qualifying for the playoffs, and winning the National Championship.
Team↕ | Conference↕ | Record↕ | Power
Rank↑ | Points
Spread↕ | Projected
Wins↕ | Projected
Losses↕ | Conference
Championship
Game%↕ | Win
Conference%↕ | Make CFB
Playoff%↕ | At Large
Bid%↕ | Make
NC%↕ | National
Champion%↕ | Win
Out%↕ | 6+ Wins%↕ | Strength of
Schedule↕ | Offense
Impact
Score↕ | Defense
Impact
Score↕ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Ten | 12-0 | 1 | 34.25(1) | 12(1) | 0(135) | 100(1) | 56.7(6) | 100(1) | 43.3(8) | 38.6(1) | 23.9(1) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 11.42(49) | 93.1(3) | 97.0(2) | ||
| Big Ten | 12-0 | 2 | 32.5(2) | 12(1) | 0(135) | 100(1) | 43.3(13) | 100(1) | 56.7(6) | 35.4(2) | 17.8(2) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 10.50(58) | 93.7(1) | 97.8(1) | ||
| Big Ten | 11-1 | 3 | 29(3) | 11(3) | 1(127) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 100(1) | 100.0(1) | 16.3(4) | 8.9(3) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 11.25(53) | 86.6(10) | 85.1(20) | ||
| Independent | 10-2 | 4 | 28.75(4) | 10(11) | 2(118) | - | - | 79.5(9) | 79.5(5) | 12.3(8) | 6.3(6) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 12.23(35) | 88.4(8) | 87.5(11) | ||
| SEC | 10-2 | 5 | 28.5(5) | 10(11) | 2(118) | 100(1) | 55.8(8) | 70.89999999999999(10) | 15.1(10) | 13.4(6) | 6.25(7) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 13.52(19) | 85.6(13) | 89.0(7) | ||
| Big 12 | 11-1 | 6 | 28.25(6) | 11(3) | 1(127) | 100(1) | 63.2(3) | 100(1) | 36.8(9) | 14.7(5) | 7.5(5) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 9.60(63) | 83.0(28) | 95.8(4) | ||
| SEC | 11-1 | 7 | 27.5(7) | 11(3) | 1(127) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 100(1) | 100.0(1) | 11.7(9) | 5.7(8) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 11.40(50) | 85.3(14) | 82.4(34) | ||
| SEC | 11-1 | 7 | 27.5(7) | 11(3) | 1(127) | 100(1) | 44.2(10) | 100(1) | 55.8(7) | 23.2(3) | 8(4) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 12.48(32) | 84.5(20) | 83.7(25) | ||
| SEC | 11-1 | 9 | 27.25(9) | 11(3) | 1(127) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 100(1) | 100.0(1) | 12.4(7) | 4.7(9) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 11.94(40) | 83.1(27) | 87.9(10) | ||
| SEC | 10-2 | 10 | 26.75(10) | 10(11) | 2(118) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 100(1) | 100.0(1) | 9.1(10) | 3.8(10) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 14.10(13) | 77.0(60) | 96.4(3) | ||
| Big 12 | 11-1 | 11 | 23.5(11) | 11(3) | 1(127) | 100(1) | 36.8(16) | 36.8(14) | 0.0(13) | 6.1(11) | 2.6(11) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 12.94(26) | 83.6(25) | 87.3(13) | ||
| Big 12 | 10-2 | 12 | 23.25(12) | 10(11) | 2(118) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 12.04(39) | 88.9(7) | 85.6(18) | ||
| ACC | 10-2 | 13 | 23(13) | 10(11) | 2(118) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 12.799999999999999(16) | 12.8(11) | 2(13) | 0.9(14) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 11.73(42) | 84.6(17) | 89.5(6) | ||
| SEC | 9-3 | 14 | 22.75(14) | 9(21) | 3(105) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 1.13(12) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 13.58(17) | 80.0(37) | 86.1(17) | ||
| SEC | 10-2 | 15 | 22.5(15) | 10(11) | 2(118) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 1.12(13) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 11.71(43) | 93.6(2) | 78.1(48) | ||
| SEC | 8-4 | 16 | 21(16) | 8(33) | 4(82) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 11.44(48) | 87.0(9) | 73.3(81) | ||
| ACC | 10-2 | 17 | 20.75(17) | 10(11) | 2(118) | 100(1) | 64(2) | 64(11) | 0.0(13) | 2.2(12) | 0.7(15) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 8.21(70) | 79.1(42) | 83.9(23) | ||
| Big Ten | 9-3 | 18 | 19.25(18) | 9(21) | 3(105) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 13.02(25) | 91.1(4) | 76.8(57) | ||
| Big Ten | 9-3 | 19 | 18.5(19) | 9(21) | 3(105) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 13.06(24) | 82.5(29) | 83.6(26) | ||
| Big Ten | 8-4 | 20 | 18.25(20) | 8(33) | 4(82) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 11.63(45) | 90.6(5) | 82.5(32) | ||
| ACC | 8-4 | 21 | 18(21) | 8(33) | 4(82) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 9.85(61) | 78.7(46) | 83.2(28) | ||
| Big 12 | 9-3 | 22 | 17.75(22) | 9(21) | 3(105) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 10.92(56) | 79.6(38) | 84.5(21) | ||
| Sun Belt | 11-1 | 22 | 17.75(22) | 11(3) | 1(127) | 100(1) | 78.3(1) | 28.2(15) | 0.0(13) | 1(15) | 0.2(17) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 3.10(108) | 77.5(55) | 88.4(9) | ||
| ACC | 8-4 | 22 | 17.75(22) | 8(33) | 4(82) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 11.38(51) | 78.0(51) | 86.2(16) | ||
| Big 12 | 7-5 | 25 | 17.5(25) | 7(56) | 5(68) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 11.10(54) | 84.1(22) | 73.3(82) | ||
| SEC | 8-4 | 25 | 17.5(25) | 8(33) | 4(82) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 12.65(30) | 81.9(33) | 87.4(12) | ||
| American | 10-2 | 27 | 17.25(27) | 10(11) | 2(118) | 100(1) | 61.2(4) | 61.2(12) | 0.0(13) | 1.1(14) | 0.3(16) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 5.88(76) | 76.8(63) | 73.9(77) | ||
| ACC | 7-5 | 28 | 17(28) | 7(56) | 5(68) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 9.83(62) | 77.5(56) | 82.8(30) | ||
| ACC | 9-3 | 28 | 17(28) | 9(21) | 3(105) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 10.38(60) | 84.5(21) | 74.2(75) | ||
| Big Ten | 8-4 | 28 | 17(28) | 8(33) | 4(82) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 12.08(37) | 79.5(39) | 86.7(15) | ||
| Big 12 | 8-4 | 31 | 16.75(31) | 8(33) | 4(82) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 13.31(22) | 75.8(68) | 81.1(36) | ||
| Big Ten | 8-4 | 31 | 16.75(31) | 8(33) | 4(82) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 13.81(15) | 85.6(12) | 75.1(69) | ||
| ACC | 8-4 | 31 | 16.75(31) | 8(33) | 4(82) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 11.06(55) | 75.9(67) | 82.6(31) | ||
| Big 12 | 9-3 | 34 | 16.5(34) | 9(21) | 3(105) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 9.56(64) | 77.4(57) | 81.8(35) | ||
| Big 12 | 8-4 | 35 | 16(35) | 8(33) | 4(82) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 12.92(28) | 82.5(30) | 78.5(44) | ||
| ACC | 7-5 | 36 | 15.25(36) | 7(56) | 5(68) | 100(1) | 36(17) | 7.8(17) | 7.8(12) | 0.2(17) | 0.1(18) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 11.46(46) | 85.2(15) | 70.5(97) | ||
| Big 12 | 8-4 | 37 | 15(37) | 8(33) | 4(82) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 11.77(41) | 79.2(41) | 79.3(41) | ||
| American | 11-1 | 38 | 13.5(38) | 11(3) | 1(127) | 100(1) | 38.8(15) | 38.8(13) | 0.0(13) | 0.3(16) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 2.65(116) | 84.6(19) | 73.0(83) | ||
| Big 12 | 6-6 | 39 | 13.25(39) | 6(71) | 6(55) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 11.71(43) | 77.0(61) | 77.5(50) | ||
| SEC | 7-5 | 39 | 13.25(39) | 7(56) | 5(68) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 15.52(6) | 75.1(73) | 86.9(14) | ||
| ACC | 8-4 | 41 | 12.5(41) | 8(33) | 4(82) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 8.90(68) | 72.3(88) | 85.2(19) | ||
| Big Ten | 6-6 | 42 | 12.25(42) | 6(71) | 6(55) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 12.94(26) | 84.9(16) | 79.9(38) | ||
| SEC | 5-7 | 43 | 11.75(43) | 5(83) | 7(40) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 0(83) | 14.83(10) | 80.3(35) | 83.8(24) | ||
| ACC | 7-5 | 43 | 11.75(43) | 7(56) | 5(68) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 13.42(20) | 83.8(24) | 74.2(74) | ||
| Big 12 | 5-7 | 45 | 11.5(45) | 5(83) | 7(40) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 0(83) | 13.15(23) | 78.7(45) | 71.7(92) | ||
| Big Ten | 7-5 | 45 | 11.5(45) | 7(56) | 5(68) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 11.38(51) | 73.0(84) | 76.6(59) | ||
| American | 9-3 | 45 | 11.5(45) | 9(21) | 3(105) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 100(1) | 5.19(81) | 82.4(31) | 77.4(51) | ||
| American | 9-2 | 48 | 11.25(48) | 9.67(20) | 2.33(117) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 67.1(1) | 100(1) | 5.09(86) | 84.6(18) | 68.0(114) | ||
| SEC | 5-7 | 49 | 11(49) | 5(83) | 7(40) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 0(83) | 15.10(7) | 82.3(32) | 77.1(55) | ||
| SEC | 4-8 | 49 | 11(49) | 4(98) | 8(21) | 0(19) | 0(19) | 0(18) | 0.0(13) | 0(18) | 0(19) | 0(3) | 0(83) | 16.48(2) | 77.9(54) | 84.5(22) |
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Last updated: 12/5/2025, 3:52 AM