PFSN CFB Playoff Meter

PFSN College Football Playoff Meter (FPM) simulates the remaining CFB schedule 100,000 times to calculate the outcome of every FBS team in the 2025-26 season. The college FPM uses our proprietary metrics to give every team a points spread against the average opponent, which is then used to fuel our simulation engine.

Our FPM produces data points on each team's expected number of wins and losses, their chances of making the conference championship game, winning the conference, qualifying for the playoffs, and winning the National Championship.


Team
Conference
Record
Power Rank
Points Spread
Projected Wins
Projected Losses
Conference Championship Game%
Win Conference%
Make CFB Playoff%
At Large Bid%
Make NC%
National Champion%
Win Out%
6+ Wins%
Strength of Schedule
Offense Impact Score
Defense Impact Score
Big Ten12-0134.25(1)12(1)0(135)100(1)56.7(6)100(1)43.3(8)38.6(1)23.9(1)0(3)100(1)11.42(49)93.1(3)97.0(2)
Big Ten12-0232.5(2)12(1)0(135)100(1)43.3(13)100(1)56.7(6)35.4(2)17.8(2)0(3)100(1)10.50(58)93.7(1)97.8(1)
Big Ten11-1329(3)11(3)1(127)0(19)0(19)100(1)100.0(1)16.3(4)8.9(3)0(3)100(1)11.25(53)86.6(10)85.1(20)
Independent10-2428.75(4)10(11)2(118)--79.5(9)79.5(5)12.3(8)6.3(6)0(3)100(1)12.23(35)88.4(8)87.5(11)
SEC10-2528.5(5)10(11)2(118)100(1)55.8(8)70.89999999999999(10)15.1(10)13.4(6)6.25(7)0(3)100(1)13.52(19)85.6(13)89.0(7)
Big 1211-1628.25(6)11(3)1(127)100(1)63.2(3)100(1)36.8(9)14.7(5)7.5(5)0(3)100(1)9.60(63)83.0(28)95.8(4)
SEC11-1727.5(7)11(3)1(127)0(19)0(19)100(1)100.0(1)11.7(9)5.7(8)0(3)100(1)11.40(50)85.3(14)82.4(34)
SEC11-1727.5(7)11(3)1(127)100(1)44.2(10)100(1)55.8(7)23.2(3)8(4)0(3)100(1)12.48(32)84.5(20)83.7(25)
SEC11-1927.25(9)11(3)1(127)0(19)0(19)100(1)100.0(1)12.4(7)4.7(9)0(3)100(1)11.94(40)83.1(27)87.9(10)
SEC10-21026.75(10)10(11)2(118)0(19)0(19)100(1)100.0(1)9.1(10)3.8(10)0(3)100(1)14.10(13)77.0(60)96.4(3)
Big 1211-11123.5(11)11(3)1(127)100(1)36.8(16)36.8(14)0.0(13)6.1(11)2.6(11)0(3)100(1)12.94(26)83.6(25)87.3(13)
Big 1210-21223.25(12)10(11)2(118)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)12.04(39)88.9(7)85.6(18)
ACC10-21323(13)10(11)2(118)0(19)0(19)12.799999999999999(16)12.8(11)2(13)0.9(14)0(3)100(1)11.73(42)84.6(17)89.5(6)
SEC9-31422.75(14)9(21)3(105)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)1.13(12)0(3)100(1)13.58(17)80.0(37)86.1(17)
SEC10-21522.5(15)10(11)2(118)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)1.12(13)0(3)100(1)11.71(43)93.6(2)78.1(48)
SEC8-41621(16)8(33)4(82)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)11.44(48)87.0(9)73.3(81)
ACC10-21720.75(17)10(11)2(118)100(1)64(2)64(11)0.0(13)2.2(12)0.7(15)0(3)100(1)8.21(70)79.1(42)83.9(23)
Big Ten9-31819.25(18)9(21)3(105)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)13.02(25)91.1(4)76.8(57)
Big Ten9-31918.5(19)9(21)3(105)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)13.06(24)82.5(29)83.6(26)
Big Ten8-42018.25(20)8(33)4(82)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)11.63(45)90.6(5)82.5(32)
ACC8-42118(21)8(33)4(82)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)9.85(61)78.7(46)83.2(28)
Big 129-32217.75(22)9(21)3(105)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)10.92(56)79.6(38)84.5(21)
Sun Belt11-12217.75(22)11(3)1(127)100(1)78.3(1)28.2(15)0.0(13)1(15)0.2(17)0(3)100(1)3.10(108)77.5(55)88.4(9)
ACC8-42217.75(22)8(33)4(82)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)11.38(51)78.0(51)86.2(16)
Big 127-52517.5(25)7(56)5(68)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)11.10(54)84.1(22)73.3(82)
SEC8-42517.5(25)8(33)4(82)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)12.65(30)81.9(33)87.4(12)
American10-22717.25(27)10(11)2(118)100(1)61.2(4)61.2(12)0.0(13)1.1(14)0.3(16)0(3)100(1)5.88(76)76.8(63)73.9(77)
ACC7-52817(28)7(56)5(68)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)9.83(62)77.5(56)82.8(30)
ACC9-32817(28)9(21)3(105)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)10.38(60)84.5(21)74.2(75)
Big Ten8-42817(28)8(33)4(82)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)12.08(37)79.5(39)86.7(15)
Big 128-43116.75(31)8(33)4(82)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)13.31(22)75.8(68)81.1(36)
Big Ten8-43116.75(31)8(33)4(82)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)13.81(15)85.6(12)75.1(69)
ACC8-43116.75(31)8(33)4(82)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)11.06(55)75.9(67)82.6(31)
Big 129-33416.5(34)9(21)3(105)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)9.56(64)77.4(57)81.8(35)
Big 128-43516(35)8(33)4(82)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)12.92(28)82.5(30)78.5(44)
ACC7-53615.25(36)7(56)5(68)100(1)36(17)7.8(17)7.8(12)0.2(17)0.1(18)0(3)100(1)11.46(46)85.2(15)70.5(97)
Big 128-43715(37)8(33)4(82)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)11.77(41)79.2(41)79.3(41)
American11-13813.5(38)11(3)1(127)100(1)38.8(15)38.8(13)0.0(13)0.3(16)0(19)0(3)100(1)2.65(116)84.6(19)73.0(83)
Big 126-63913.25(39)6(71)6(55)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)11.71(43)77.0(61)77.5(50)
SEC7-53913.25(39)7(56)5(68)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)15.52(6)75.1(73)86.9(14)
ACC8-44112.5(41)8(33)4(82)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)8.90(68)72.3(88)85.2(19)
Big Ten6-64212.25(42)6(71)6(55)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)12.94(26)84.9(16)79.9(38)
SEC5-74311.75(43)5(83)7(40)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)0(83)14.83(10)80.3(35)83.8(24)
ACC7-54311.75(43)7(56)5(68)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)13.42(20)83.8(24)74.2(74)
Big 125-74511.5(45)5(83)7(40)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)0(83)13.15(23)78.7(45)71.7(92)
Big Ten7-54511.5(45)7(56)5(68)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)11.38(51)73.0(84)76.6(59)
American9-34511.5(45)9(21)3(105)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)100(1)5.19(81)82.4(31)77.4(51)
American9-24811.25(48)9.67(20)2.33(117)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)67.1(1)100(1)5.09(86)84.6(18)68.0(114)
SEC5-74911(49)5(83)7(40)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)0(83)15.10(7)82.3(32)77.1(55)
SEC4-84911(49)4(98)8(21)0(19)0(19)0(18)0.0(13)0(18)0(19)0(3)0(83)16.48(2)77.9(54)84.5(22)

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Last updated: 12/5/2025, 3:52 AM