The Carolina Panthers added Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette as they overhauled their wide receiver room this offseason. Adam Thielen returns to round out the trio, but how will the fantasy football opportunities shake out in a group that is significantly higher caliber than it was last season? Let’s look at the fantasy outlooks for Johnson, Thielen, and Legette in 2024.
Diontae Johnson’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 210.6 (127.4 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 83.2
- Receiving Yards: 953.8
- Receiving TDs: 4.7
Johnson’s production dipped a bit last year after catching a career-low 51 passes after missing some time due to a hamstring injury. It also didn’t bode well that there was a rotating door of quarterbacks under center. Then there is the “Matt Canada effect” that did pretty much everyone no favors from a fantasy perspective.
My goal is certainly not to create excuses for a player who had multiple instances of inexcusable lack of effort and his fair share of concentration drops. But Johnson’s decline in production certainly didn’t feel like it came from losing a step.
Johnson’s injuries and target share dropping from 27% to 23.5% likely had a bigger impact on his fantasy production last year than a significant drop in performance.
Despite the ineptitude of the Steelers’ offense for the majority of his career, Johnson has proven to be a very productive wide receiver with a healthy target volume. Before last season, Johnson saw 140+ targets and finished inside the top 30 at his position for three consecutive years.
Johnson’s ADP currently resides at No. 89 overall at the end of the eighth round (WR38 off the board). This puts him in the same range as Ladd McConkey, Hollywood Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins.
If you’re higher on McConkey at this point, I don’t exactly blame you. However, I want to focus on the fact that Johnson is currently priced as a WR4 on draft day. This presents an excellent value in full-PPR formats, assuming Johnson can steal a significant amount of Thielen’s volume in the passing game.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
Adam Thielen’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 141.5 (86.3 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 55.2
- Receiving Yards: 567.3
- Receiving TDs: 4.9
Thielen finished last season with 103 catches, a total that tied Davante Adams for the 10th most in the league (38 fewer targets than Adams). When it comes to projecting forward, however, that number sounds way better than it is.
- Eighteen more catches than any other Panther had targets
- Career-low 9.8 yards per catch
- Career-low (since becoming a regular) TD rate
That first bullet point would be spun as a positive if the Panthers were returning the same core as last season, but they aren’t. Now in the mix is Johnson, a version of Thielen but six years younger, and Legette, a first-round pick who piled up 1,255 receiving yards last season at South Carolina.
I have my questions about Thielen’s volume (even if you think the target count remains, a 75.2% catch rate isn’t likely to stick) and the tailing off of him in the scoring department is equally as concerning.
- Last two seasons: 10 TDs on 173 catches
- Previous 3 seasons: 30 TDs on 171 catches
Could Thielen be a sneaky DFS option in the right spot or even a Best Ball asset down the stretch (four weatherproof games to end the season)? I’m not ruling it out, but in standard redraft leagues, I’m not interested.
His 14% dip in yards per target from his rate with the Vikings a season ago is something that I fear will continue this season and limit the appeal of a player that you’re rostering with the hopes of consistency.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
Xavier Legette’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 133.4 (89.3 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 44.1
- Receiving Yards: 661.4
- Receiving TDs: 3.7
Legette’s ADP at No. 158 overall in the 13th round as the WR59 off the board feels quite reasonable for a rookie who had just one year of elite college production and joined one of the worst passing offenses in the league last season. For some additional context, Legette is drafted just behind Jerry Jeudy, Jakobi Meyers, and Mike Williams.
Legette has all of the physical tools to be an effective X-receiver in the league. His explosiveness, hip sink, and body control are all pretty rare for a receiver his size. The unknown level of play from Young under center and the volume both Johnson and Thielen will command feels like a bit of a mystery at this point.
In this range, it’s hard to call a prospect like Legette, who is walking into a weaker receiver room with plenty of potential targets up for grabs, a bad pick. But I do find myself gravitating towards rookies Ja’Lynn Polk, Jermaine Burton, and Malachi Corley in the same range.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
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