Thanksgiving night football has a new twist this year as the Baltimore Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals in a battle that will test playoff hopes and personal milestones alike. PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor shows just how much is riding on this game, and a win for both AFC North teams could have lasting repercussions on the remainder of the season.
Can Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow Deliver Another Head-to-Head Classic?
Baltimore currently sits at 60.5% to make the playoffs heading into Week 13, but a win would send that figure up to 67.3%. Cincinnati’s odds are slim, just 1.0% to start, but victory would give them a glimmer of hope, raising their playoff probability to 5.0%.
For the Ravens, the road from a 1-5 start to a Wild Card race can become more real with another win, putting them alongside the few teams since 2002 that turned their season around after such a rough beginning.
Recent history between Baltimore and Cincinnati suggests fans are in for fireworks. Last season, Lamar Jackson threw four touchdown passes in both matchups with Cincinnati, while Joe Burrow countered with five scores in their first meeting and four more the second time. In that first meeting last year, both QBs put up impressive QB Impact scores. Burrow led the league that week with an 87.9 score, while Jackson was third with 80.8.
Jackson bested Burrow the next time around with the league’s second-best score of 85.3. Burrow was ninth. PFSN’s Quarterback Impact (QBi) assigns a numerical score and a letter grade to an individual quarterback’s performance. We arrive at the grade by factoring in both passing and rushing efficiency and volume.
More stable components like clean pocket performance and EPA per rush on designed runs get weighted more than less stable ones like pressure performance and scrambling. We also add a “clutch” component that gives extra weight to how quarterbacks perform in high-leverage situations.
MORE:Â 2025 NFL QB Rankings: Brock Purdy Returns to the Rankings, Lamar Jackson Drops to No. 15
Last season’s duels marked the first time since 1970 that both quarterbacks posted at least eight touchdowns against each other over a single season, a testament to their talent and the up-tempo rivalry. Baltimore holds the regular-season upper hand in these head-to-heads and hasn’t lost in two previous Thanksgiving appearances (2011 and 2013), while Cincinnati’s only other holiday game came back in 2010.​
The Ravens are riding high, winning five straight after starting 1-5. Only three teams over the last two decades have pulled off playoff runs after similar starts, and Baltimore is positioned to become the fourth. Cincinnati, at 3-8, faces longer odds, but a win would push their playoff hopes up to 5.0% and their division chances to 4.5%.
If Baltimore wins, their division percentage jumps 6.2 percentage points to 64.4%. If Cincinnati prevails, Baltimore’s playoff odds tumble to 42.0%, a drop of 18.5 percentage points, while the Bengals jump to 5.0%, a gain of 4.0 percentage points.
Who else might impact this game? Well, Derrick Henry is coming off his 30th career multi-TD game, joining Hall of Famers LaDainian Tomlinson and Emmitt Smith in an exclusive category. Last week, he posted an 80.2 RB impact score and is now the 14th-best RB in the league.
Ja’Marr Chase’s historic 457 receiving yards and five touchdowns against Baltimore last year shattered records for most receiving yards by a player versus an opponent in a single season. This year, with the QB carousel caused by Burrow’s injury, Chase hasn’t put up the same kind of production. However, he still ranks sixth in WR Impact on the year.
Baltimore’s home-field history and momentum offer an advantage, but Cincinnati’s talent and last year’s scoring binge mean the Bengals can’t be counted out. Another explosive Jackson-Burrow showdown isn’t just possible, it’s likely. What will Burrow look like coming off a long absence? Can he salvage a fading season? He certainly thinks so.
“It’s a division rivalry,” Burrow said. “It’s intense out there, something I wanted to be out there for.
“Playing on Thanksgiving, something I’ve always wanted to do that I’ve pushed for in the past, and the NFL gave it to us (this season). Then the injury happened, and (I) thought I wasn’t going to be able to play, and as we got closer, (I) felt like it was a real possibility. So that’s exciting to me. It’s a national stage to go out there and prove yourself again after not playing for several weeks.”
Joe Burrow’s got ice in his veins. Nothing seems to rattle him, even taking hits. His ability to extend plays and stay poised under pressure is a game-changer. #JoeBurrow #NFL pic.twitter.com/odBRIXlziX
— Arvind Dhindsa (@arvind_dhindsa) November 27, 2025
Although PFSN’s Playoff Predictor favors the Ravens in this one, I think that Burrow will be able to light a fire under this Bengals offense, just enough to get them a huge Thanksgiving win.
Prediction: Bengals 31, Ravens 27
