This week did not disappoint, to say the least, but it’s time to move on to Week 10 and for me to make my initial NFL picks. As is weekly tradition, I give out my initial picks against the spread, favorite totals, and more after a first review of the opening NFL betting odds for the upcoming week. So without further ado, here are my early NFL Week 10 predictions.
NFL Week 10 Predictions and Picks
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears Odds
- Spread
Bears -3.5 - Moneyline
Panthers +152, Bears -180 - Total
40
Justin Fields could be making his return next week, which would be a huge boost for the Chicago Bears after Tyson Bagent’s turnovers cost them the game against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. As bad as the Bears defense is, the Carolina Panthers can’t move the ball on anyone and remain an easy under bet until further notice.
Pick: Under 40
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Odds
- Spread
Colts -1.5 - Moneyline
Colts -126, Patriots +108 - Total
43
After surrendering 114 points over three weeks, the schedule makers threw the Indianapolis Colts a bone by giving them two straight games against the Panthers and New England Patriots, two of the worst offenses in the NFL.
The Patriots just lost to a team that had a fire sale at the trade deadline; meanwhile, the Colts scored 27 points but averaged just 3.5 yards per play. It’s two straight unders to kick off the early NFL Week 10 predictions.
Pick: Under 43
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
- Spread
49ers -2.5 - Moneyline
49ers -152, Jaguars +128 - Total
44.5
Both teams are coming off bye weeks, and for the San Francisco 49ers, it was much needed after three straight losses with Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel out with injuries. I think a healthy 49ers team gets back on track against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that has mostly beaten up bad teams during their five-game winning streak.
Pick: 49ers -2.5
New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds
- Spread
Saints -2.5 - Moneyline
Saints -136, Vikings +116 - Total
41
Joshua Dobbs filled in admirably for Jaren Hall, especially when you consider he just joined the team earlier in the week. With an extra week to get comfortable with the playbook, combined with playing at home, I like the Vikings getting points here.
Derek Carr doesn’t have a good history of covering as a favorite, and that was on full display as the Saints blew several opportunities to cover the 7.5.
Pick: Vikings +2.5
Tennessee Titans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds
- Spread
Buccaneers -1.5 - Moneyline
Titans -102, Buccaneers -116 - Total
38.5
This total is suspiciously low when you consider the Buccaneers just gave up 39 points and nearly 500 yards of offense on Sunday. Will Levis might be a rookie, but he has shown the capability to move the ball downfield and has enough weapons on offense to get the job done. Given that neither team can defend the pass, this sets up as a rare over for me on a low total.
Pick: Over 38.5
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds
- Spread
Ravens -5.5 - Moneyline
Browns +210, Ravens -255 - Total
38.5
The Baltimore Ravens might very well be the best team in the NFL, and they would be undefeated if not for two flukey losses. This is a battle of the two best defenses in the NFL, but I think the Ravens will give Deshaun Watson more trouble than the Cleveland Browns will for Lamar Jackson.
The Browns had a dominant win over Arizona, but they weren’t tested against a rookie QB who looked extremely overwhelmed in his first career start.
Pick: Ravens -5.5
Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds
- Spread
Bengals -7.5 - Moneyline
Texans +310, Bengals -390 - Total
46.5
Few quarterbacks are playing better than both C.J. Stroud and Joe Burrow right now, so you would think this would be an over play, right?
MORE: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings
Think again. As well as the Bengals’ offense is playing, their defense has been sensational as well, as they’ve held the 49ers and Bills to under 20 points in consecutive weeks. The hype (and rightfully so) is at an all-time high for Stroud, but this Cincy defense is a problem.
Pick: Under 46.5
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds
- Spread
Steelers -3.5 - Moneyline
Packers +154, Steelers -184 - Total
37.5
The Steelers are 5-3 despite failing to out-gain their opponent in a single game this season. While they seem like an easy fade, especially as a favorite, I have no interest in backing a Green Bay Packers team that just snapped a four-game losing streak because they went up against Brett Rypien.
Neither of these teams can move the ball with consistency on offense, and the low point total certainly implies that. But it won’t scare me away from taking the under.
Pick: Under 37.5
Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds
- Spread
Falcons -1.5 - Moneyline
Falcons -118, Cardinals +100 - Total
43.5
Kyler Murray will be making his return on Sunday, and this is the shortest spread in a Cardinals game this season. Even though this Falcons team just lost to a quarterback who was still learning his teammates names, I’m a bit worried about Murray potentially being rusty in his first game back since tearing his ACL. The under is appealing as well, but I’ll buy low on the Falcons.
Pick: Falcons -1.5
Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds
- Spread
Lions -1.5 - Moneyline
Lions -120, Chargers +102 - Total
48.5
As of writing, the Chargers haven’t played yet this week, while the Lions are on a bye. So there’s no reactionary analysis here, at least.
MORE: Chargers vs. Jets Predictions and Picks
However, I think Detroit is the superior team, and Jared Goff will be playing in a stadium with which he has a lot of familiarity. The Chargers haven’t beaten a good team yet this season, and I don’t think their defense will have enough answers for the Lions’ offense.
Pick: Lions -1.5
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds
- Spread
Cowboys -15.5 - Moneyline
Giants +870, Cowboys -1500 - Total
39
This is a lot of points, but it’s most certainly warranted. The Cowboys lost in heartbreaking fashion to the Eagles on Sunday, in a game in which you could argue they outplayed them on both sides of the ball.
With Daniel Jones’ injury status unknown, and if it’s Tommy DeVito and not Tyrod Taylor at quarterback for the Giants, the points could be worth it here with Dallas. We’ve seen them beat up on bad teams this season, including the Giants in Week 1.
Pick: Cowboys -15.5
Washington Commanders vs. Seattle Seahawks Odds
- Spread
Seahawks -6.5 - Moneyline
Commanders +240, Seahawks -290 - Total
44.5
After playing their way into the NFC contender conversation, the Seahawks got embarrassed in Baltimore, losing 37-3. Yet, after playing two games in a row against the two best defenses in the NFL, Seattle gets a matchup against one of the worst units in the NFL.
I like this as a bounce-back spot for Seattle at home, and I like them giving under a touchdown.
Pick: Seahawks -6.5
New York Jets vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds
- Spread
Jets -1.5 - Moneyline
Jets -130, Raiders +110 - Total
37
The Jets haven’t played yet this week, but the spread has gone down a point from the look-ahead line after the Raiders beat DeVito and the Giants.
MORE: NFL Week 9 Winners and Losers
The players looked much more motivated under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, and Vegas’ roster is much better than their play under Josh McDaniels indicated, but this seems like a nice sell-high spot for Aidan O’Connell. The rookie QB was very impressive against the Giants on Sunday, but this Jets defense is an elite unit.
Pick: Jets -1.5
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
- Spread
Bills -7.5 - Moneyline
Broncos +315, Bills -400 - Total
46
This is a game the Bills really need after a brutal stretch coming up with games against the Jets, Eagles, and Chiefs. Even though they’re rightfully heavy favorites in this one, I can see Denver putting up a bit of a fight.
The Broncos’ defense is much improved from the beginning of the season (couldn’t get any worse), and their offense should be able to move the ball on a Bills defense that is 30th in EPA/play since they lost a number of key players to injury.
Pick: Broncos +7.5
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