The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Kansas City Chiefs players heading into their matchup with the Washington Commanders to help you craft a winning lineup.
Patrick Mahomes, QB
He came, he saw, he conquered.
Patrick Mahomes didn’t take a snap in the fourth quarter, but he didn’t need to. He’s thrown at least three touchdown passes in three of his past four games and has reached 28 rushing yards in five of seven contests this season.
After years of a conservative script, Andy Reid is back in the business of wanting #15 to put up monster numbers, and so it shall be done.
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Rashee Rice looked like Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy was making plays, and Travis Kelce picked apart zone coverage schemes.
Oh, did I not mention that the running game showed signs of life? That Tyquan Thornton continues to stretch the field with vertical routes or that Hollywood Brown found the end zone?
I’m not sure what you’re supposed to take away here. No matter what you do, Mahomes is a surefire starter in all formats and is a real threat to lead the position in scoring for the remainder of the season.
Brashard Smith, RB
It’s not like we’ve seen this Reid system elevate a Round 7 running back before, right?
Brashard Smith looks like he has some juice, though I would caution against reading too much into the Week 7 boxscore, as he was featured in the fourth quarter with Patrick Mahomes wearing a baseball cap.
Before last week, Smith had more catches (nine) than carries (eight). He was hardly used during his time at Miami, and when he was, it was in a third-down type of role (69 catches against 18 rushes). That said, he was a bellcow during his final collegiate season, running 235 times and catching 39 passes last season with SMU.
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I’m less worried about what he can do at this level; I’m sold on the film, but the opportunity count. Isiah Pacheco is certainly running hard enough to make us think he is now fully healthy, and Kareem Hunt is a veteran who is trusted at a high level.
If he’s on your waiver wire, I’d make the add. I prefer him to a player like Ollie Gordon: someone who might be closer to the top of his depth chart but projects to be limited by his surroundings, even if given the lead role.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
The Chiefs wasted little time in systematically destroying the Raiders, so it really was just a matter of who Reid wanted to feed.
He elected to get Rice rolling in his season debut.
That’s not to say that the Pacheco stat line was an issue. He scored and touched the ball 16 times, something that I think is about the ceiling of expectations in any given week. But it was Rice with the touchdowns, and that stood in the way of Pacheco having a big day.
The snap share continues to trend in the right direction, though Brashard Smith, a player who garnered some Pacheco comparisons, continues to impress on the opportunities he’s given.
It appears clear that Pacheco is the lead backfield, but it is unclear how much usage this team wants to give to a single RB. All three of the primary runners got their hands on the ball on the first drive, and if Kansas City truly is that indifferent as to who is getting those opportunities, the weekly floor is terrifying.
I’ve been impressed with Pacheco’s health and will continue to rank him as an RB2, though the risk needs to be acknowledged as you build out your lineups.
Kareem Hunt, RB
Kareem Hunt seems to be trending in the wrong direction for this offense, and that could make him a fantasy roster casualty with time.
We aren’t there yet, but that’s more a product of me wanting to hold onto any shares of this explosive unit than anything. Hunt has seen his carry count decrease in every game this month and hasn’t earned multiple targets in this pass-centric scheme since Week 1.
Pacheco certainly looks healthy, and that is where Kansas City is leaning. Rookie Braxton Smith has also looked good in his limited action. While I’m not reading into the garbage-time production of last week, it’s easy to see a path where Reid tests the limitations of the seventh-round pick in an effort to gain a complete understanding of what he has for the playoffs.
He knows what he has in Hunt. He has a veteran who may not make the spectacular play, but he’ll do what is expected of him. That holds value in real life, but not much in the fantasy space.
Hunt sits easily outside of my top 30 at the position this week, living in the space of the handcuff RBs like Kenneth Gainwell and Isaiah Pacheco.
Marquise Brown, WR
Hollywood Brown scored last week, but under a yard per route is discouraging, and it’s tough to find consistent looks for him in this offense with Rice stepping right back into the alpha earner role.
I’m selling to the highest bidder and not thinking twice about it.
I said two weeks ago that I’d move him for the Packers D/ST, and you’ve lost out big time if you executed at the time of that suggestion.
I’d still do it.
Green Bay has a very reasonable schedule for the rest of the way, and that’s a starting spot, whereas you’d really need to be in a tough spot to plug in Brown, barring an injury around him.
Brown sits outside of my top 40 at the position this week, behind lesser talents like Troy Franklin and Mooney, who are in great matchups.
Rashee Rice, WR
The “everyone will eat” mantra is cute, and it makes sense if you’re a team with a bunch of equally skilled players. It’s a good way to boost morale and keep everyone engaged when scheming up plays.
It’s also not a sharp strategy when you have an alpha target earner, and Reid is a sharp offensive mind, so we should have never read into the idea of a democratic approach to the target distribution in Kansas City once it was made official that Rice was good to go.
- 100 catches
- 128 targets
- 8 touchdowns
That would be a career year for most: it’s the last 14 healthy games for Rice, a stretch that includes four playoff games in which the defenses stiffen.
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Forget the volume for a minute and focus on that 78.1% catch rate that trends closer to what we expect from a running back than a top-notch receiver.
The argument could be made that he’s like 90% of St. Brown, but couldn’t Patrick Mahomes playing at an MVP rate cover that 10% difference?
There were designed screens, there were flip plays, and there were back-shoulder timing plays. There was a bit of everything on Sunday, and I can’t help but think we are just getting started.
I think it would be more difficult to argue against Rice being a top-seven receiver this week than slotting him at the top overall spot.
Xavier Worthy, WR
As the Mahomes stock increases, Worthy’s fantasy production declines, and that’s a terrifying trend for those who thought they had a long-term difference maker.
During the first three quarters last season (Mahomes was yanked at the end of the quarter with the result no longer in doubt), Worthy led the team in routes run.
He turned that playing time into an 11.8% target share.
I don’t care how good Mahomes is; a lack of target earning at that level is a red flag that gets even more red when you dig in and realize that none of his targets came deep downfield.
We saw Worthy prove himself as more than just a burner last season, and that was great. WAS. With Rice (10 targets, 2.0 aDOT) a full go, the running backs earning volume, and Kelce continuing to move the chains, the deep targets are Worthy’s path to success.
Thornton is averaging 22.2 yards per catch and hauled in a 39-yard pass last week. Jameson Williams has been a spotty player in this exact role for the Lions this season, and I’m not sure this situation profiles as different in a meaningful way.
If you play Worthy, you’d better feel great about it: his odds of determining your result, in either direction, are as high as anyone in this tier of flex options. Washington is one of four defenses without a deep interception, so maybe there’s a thread to pull, but they also have the eighth-lowest opponent TD% on those passes.
Worthy sits just outside of my top 20 this week, and that’s saying something given the lack of available WRs.
Travis Kelce, TE
The Chiefs got whatever they wanted, whenever they wanted it, on Sunday against the Raiders.
That was good news for Kelce (seven-yard grab on Patrick Mahomes’ first pass of the game and a 44-yard reception on the second) initially, but it resulted in a one-sided game that saw the starters sit out the fourth quarter.
Noah Gray came off the bench on that first drive and had a 28-yard reception, further proof that the Chiefs were playing chess to the Raiders’ checkers.
My concern moving forward for Kelce is back to where it started in the preseason, now that Kansas City has all of its pieces and has won four of five after the 0-2 start.
Desire.
Kelce’s production has faded in the past when fantasy managers need it the most because Reid wants to save his 36-year-old TE for a deep playoff run. That remains my fear, and it’s why I’d consider moving off the future Hall of Famer after his next big game.
That opportunity might be just a week away as the Commanders are licking their wounds after allowing Jake Ferguson to kill them underneath (two touchdowns, 100% catch rate).
