Super Bowl 60 is now in the rearview mirror, bringing an end to an entertaining 2025-26 NFL season.
With the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots now in offseason mode like the other 30 teams in the league, every team has a record of 0-0. There will be plenty of change between now and the start of the 2026-27 NFL season, but what better time to look towards the future than the full beginning of the offseason?
All probabilities are based on 10,000 simulations of PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, which uses several metrics to determine each team’s chances in the new year. This is how the simulator predicts each team’s win-loss record, playoff probability, division probability, and their chances of making the Super Bowl.
Arizona Cardinals
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.9-10.1
- Playoff Probability: 12.9%
- Divisional Probability: 3.0%
- Super Bowl Probability: 0.8%
Mike LaFleur is now the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals, and he’ll be responsible for turning a team around that struggled significantly in one-score games. There’s talent on both sides of the ball, but the front office still has plenty of work to do to enhance this roster.
The biggest question surrounding Arizona is its quarterback situation. Kyler Murray seems to be on the way out, and Jacoby Brissett only projects as a stopgap option. Can they stumble their way into a QB solution? They should be better in 2026, but if they can’t figure that out, making the playoffs in a tough NFC West seems unlikely.
Atlanta Falcons
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.1-8.9
- Playoff Probability: 37.1%
- Divisional Probability: 29.4%
- Super Bowl Probability: 2.6%
The Atlanta Falcons have finished 8-9 in each of their last two seasons. Even though they’ve replaced Raheem Morris with Kevin Stefanski as their new head coach, PFSN’s model projects more of the same out of them in 2026.
There’s still work to be done building out the Falcons’ roster, and many questions remain about Michael Penix Jr. as the franchise quarterback in Atlanta. That said, they face an easy divisional schedule in the weak NFC South, and they theoretically made a coaching upgrade in Stefanski this offseason. A divisional crown is very possible.
Baltimore Ravens
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.2-7.8
- Playoff Probability: 59.7%
- Divisional Probability: 38.4%
- Super Bowl Probability: 8.2%
2025 was a pretty rough year for the Baltimore Ravens, as they missed the playoffs and played without Lamar Jackson for four games out of the year. New head coach Jesse Minter replaces John Harbaugh in the role, inheriting a very talented roster that just couldn’t get over the hump in their quarterback’s absence.
The Steelers are always competitive, and the Bengals should be better if Joe Burrow stays healthy in 2026. However, one could argue that Baltimore has the most talented roster on paper. There’s enough star power on both sides of the ball to make the playoffs; going further than that could depend on their defense bouncing back next year.
Buffalo Bills
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 10.2-6.8
- Playoff Probability: 78.6%
- Divisional Probability: 56.9%
- Super Bowl Probability: 19.8%
With Joe Brady promoted from offensive coordinator to Joe Brady, the Buffalo Bills have enough continuity that they shouldn’t be at risk of missing the playoffs. They haven’t missed the postseason since Josh Allen’s first year in the NFL in 2018, so whether or not they’ll make an appearance likely won’t be much of a debate this offseason.
Rather, the Bills’ questions revolve around whether they can finally make it to the Super Bowl. They let go of a respected and tenured head coach, Sean McDermott, because of the team’s inability to win the AFC, let alone finish as the top team in the NFL. Will Brady be the one to finally clear that hurdle? Only time will tell.
Carolina Panthers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.6-9.4
- Playoff Probability: 28.4%
- Divisional Probability: 22.4%
- Super Bowl Probability: 1.9%
Perhaps surprisingly, the Carolina Panthers won the NFC South in a divisional battle that came down to the very last week. Granted, they did so with an 8-9 record in the worst division in the NFL, but it’s a far cry from the 2-15 record they had in 2023. Dave Canales has his team moving in the right direction.
Can the Panthers continue their upward trajectory, though? A lot of it will depend on Bryce Young’s continued growth. He’s certainly improved since his rookie year in the NFL, but has he grown enough to warrant a big-money extension? He’ll be able to prove that in 2026 if he sends Carolina to the playoffs again with a better record and better numbers.
Chicago Bears
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.7-7.3
- Playoff Probability: 60.6%
- Divisional Probability: 30.1%
- Super Bowl Probability: 11.0%
The Chicago Bears were one of just two teams in the NFL to go from worst to first in 2025, coming out of nowhere to claim the NFC North crown with an 11-6 record. Ben Johnson did a tremendous job leading the team in his first year as head coach, and most of their core returns in 2026.
This offseason, additions to the defensive line and further development from Caleb Williams will be key to the Bears building off of their strong 2025. Should “Iceman” take another leap in Year 3, and the defense improve the way the offensive line did this past year, expect another divisional crown for Chicago.
Cincinnati Bengals
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.0-8.0
- Playoff Probability: 56.7%
- Divisional Probability: 35.7%
- Super Bowl Probability: 6.8%
Their 5-3 record with a healthy Joe Burrow indicates the Cincinnati Bengals are a playoff-caliber team when their quarterback is on the field. Without him, though, they only won one game the rest of the season. It’s not a hot take to say a team is better with its starting QB, but that discrepancy shows how flawed its roster is.
Improving the defense is a necessity for the Bengals this offseason. The impending free agency of Trey Hendrickson will have a big impact on how 2026 goes for them. Even excluding him, though, they need help elsewhere on the defensive line and the secondary. Despite those flaws, Cincinnati’s explosive offense will keep them in many games.
Cleveland Browns
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.4-9.6
- Playoff Probability: 25.2%
- Divisional Probability: 11.5%
- Super Bowl Probability: 1.6%
With two first-round picks in the 2026 NFL Draft and a young core in place, the Cleveland Browns feel like a good candidate to improve from their 5-12 record in 2025. Don’t expect them to be active in free agency with Deshaun Watson’s cap hit of over $80 million this year, but they’ll have draft capital to work around it.
As Cleveland’s young roster develops, new head coach Todd Monken should be able to keep them more competitive late in the season. How far they go depends on the development of Shedeur Sanders; his rookie year, which graded at 56.9 on PFSN’s QB Impact Metric, will not cut it. If he grows and the Browns draft well, they could flirt with a .500 record.
Dallas Cowboys
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.4-8.6
- Playoff Probability: 37.9%
- Divisional Probability: 22.8%
- Super Bowl Probability: 4.1%
The Dallas Cowboys’ offense ranked third in PFSN’s Offense Impact Metric in 2025, but their defense was a major issue that held them out of the playoffs. New defensive coordinator Christian Parker figures to be an upgrade over the low bar that was their coaching staff last season.
Whether or not the Cowboys keep George Pickens, they’ll have an explosive passing attack with Dak Prescott at the helm. They have two first-round picks in the 2026 NFL Draft, giving them a chance to load up on young defensive contributors. If they bring that side of the ball up to even a league-average unit, don’t be shocked if they win the NFC East.
Denver Broncos
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.2-7.8
- Playoff Probability: 60.9%
- Divisional Probability: 41.2%
- Super Bowl Probability: 9.2%
With the best defense in the NFL by PFSN’s Defense Impact Metric, the Denver Broncos are as difficult a team to play as anybody. The elevation in Denver makes it tough for visiting teams to play, regardless, but their stifling defense and well-coached offense give them one of the most well-rounded teams in the league.
The AFC West is one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, so guaranteeing another divisional crown is not easy. That said, the Broncos retain much of their core on both sides of the ball in 2026, and Sean Payton has been a top coach in the league for most of his head-coaching career. If Bo Nix continues to develop, their ceiling is a mile high.
Detroit Lions
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.9-7.1
- Playoff Probability: 61.9%
- Divisional Probability: 32.0%
- Super Bowl Probability: 9.7%
It was surprising to see the Detroit Lions fall from 15-2 in 2024 to 9-8 and out of the playoffs in 2025. The loss of both of their top coordinators and two key offensive linemen, Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler, played a big role in their regression, but not all hope is lost for them heading into a new season.
MORE: Try PFSN’s FREE Mock Draft Simulator
Jared Goff has a loaded group of weapons in Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, and David Montgomery. Detroit’s defense had two All-Pros last year in Aidan Hutchinson and the blossoming Jack Campbell. They’ll need better play-calling on offense and more draft picks used on defense, but a playoff return seems likely.
Green Bay Packers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.7-7.3
- Playoff Probability: 58.5%
- Divisional Probability: 29.3%
- Super Bowl Probability: 10.2%
Were it not for a four-game losing streak after Micah Parsons suffered a season-ending injury, there’s a chance the Green Bay Packers could’ve made it back to the top of the NFC North. Though one injury isn’t enough of a reason to fall apart late down the stretch, his presence off the edge will be welcomed once again in 2026.
The Packers have a talented, young roster with plenty of impact defenders, a very good quarterback in Jordan Love, and a powerful runner in Josh Jacobs. Their secondary needs work, but they feel like a safe bet to make the playoffs once again. The real question is whether they’ll be able to achieve the postseason success that’s alluded to them for a while.
Houston Texans
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.4-7.6
- Playoff Probability: 63.4%
- Divisional Probability: 36.2%
- Super Bowl Probability: 11.4%
The 12-5 Houston Texans soared on the backs of their dominant defense in 2025, using an elite edge-rushing duo in Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter with their tremendous secondary to stifle opposing offenses in submission. They’ll look to do more of the same in the new season.
Heading into Year 4 of C.J. Stroud’s career, he has yet to reach the heights of his rookie campaign. One could argue the Texans have a better offensive roster now than in 2023, but their offense has been rather pedestrian by NFL standards. If they can figure out how to unlock their explosiveness again, they could be a dark-horse Super Bowl contender.
Indianapolis Colts
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.3-8.7
- Playoff Probability: 41.5%
- Divisional Probability: 17.7%
- Super Bowl Probability: 4.2%
After starting the year as hot as any team in the NFL, the Indianapolis Colts faced as steep a collapse as you’ll see in professional football. Daniel Jones cooled off for a couple of games, but once he went down for the season, Indianapolis just kept on losing. Not even the surprise return of Philip Rivers from retirement could get them into the postseason.
The Colts are a team with their starting QB on an expiring contract and no first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Shane Steichen has proven, as their head coach, that he can finish the season with a competitive record, but he’s 25-26 in his three seasons with the team. Sooner or later, the bar needs to be raised beyond mediocrity.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.5-7.5
- Playoff Probability: 66.1%
- Divisional Probability: 39.4%
- Super Bowl Probability: 12.3%
Going from a 4-13 record to a 13-4 season the following year is no easy feat, but that’s what Liam Coen accomplished in his first season as head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Though the team had made the playoffs in 2022 and 2023 under Doug Pederson, they didn’t come close to the heights they reached in this past regular season under Coen.
Trevor Lawrence looked like an MVP-caliber quarterback in the second half of the season. The Jaguars had a top-ten defense by PFSN’s Defense Impact Metric, and their offense got better with improvements from the likes of Travis Etienne and Parker Washington. Going 13-4 again is tough, but the postseason feels likely for Jacksonville next year.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.6-8.4
- Playoff Probability: 48.6%
- Divisional Probability: 26.2%
- Super Bowl Probability: 6.4%
With Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh leaving their respective longtime gigs, Andy Reid is now the longest-tenured head coach at his job in the NFL. The Kansas City Chiefs have been a juggernaut for much of their time together, but they fell to 6-11 in a disappointing 2025 campaign.
The defending AFC champions, going into this past year, the Chiefs failed to pull away in several one-score games against playoff-caliber teams. Patrick Mahomes’ return from injury should mean they improve on their 2025 record, but their roster is starting to show cracks, suggesting an NFL dynasty in danger of losing its grasp atop the league.
Las Vegas Raiders
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.7-10.3
- Playoff Probability: 16.3%
- Divisional Probability: 7.2%
- Super Bowl Probability: 0.9%
The additions of Pete Carroll as head coach and Geno Smith as quarterback didn’t pay off for the Las Vegas Raiders nearly as much as they had hoped. Their offense fell flat, and with a 3-14 regular-season record, they now have the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Luckily for them, they now have Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak coming in as their head coach. Their roster still has a long way to go, but Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza should be an upgrade at QB with the top overall pick. Expect slight growth from the Raiders in 2026, but don’t get your hopes up for a playoff spot in a loaded division.
Los Angeles Chargers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.2-8.8
- Playoff Probability: 41.9%
- Divisional Probability: 23.3%
- Super Bowl Probability: 4.3%
Will Mike McDaniel be the one to unlock the Los Angeles Chargers’ offense? Missing both Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt for much of the season didn’t help, but their porous offensive line hurt their offensive performance in 2025. Still, the Chargers have gone 11-6 in each of Jim Harbaugh’s two seasons as their head coach.
Los Angeles also lost defensive coordinator Jesse Minter to the Ravens as their head coach, marking a big question mark on that side of the ball, too. They’ll still be competitive, as any Harbaugh-coached team will be, but they have some work in the trenches this offseason to avoid regression.
Los Angeles Rams
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.9-7.1
- Playoff Probability: 64.5%
- Divisional Probability: 31.8%
- Super Bowl Probability: 13.2%
Matthew Stafford won the closest MVP race the NFL has seen since 2003, and the Los Angeles Rams’ star quarterback will be returning in 2026. The win practically ensures he’ll make it to the Hall of Fame someday, but he’ll be focused on winning another Super Bowl after coming just one game short of another appearance this past season.
The Rams have a loaded defensive line, an elite quarterback, great offensive weapons, and one of the best head coaches in the NFL. It would take a major collapse for them not to make the postseason in 2026. If they use their two first-round picks in the 2026 NFL Draft wisely, they could represent the NFC in Super Bowl 61.
Miami Dolphins
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.8-10.2
- Playoff Probability: 17.6%
- Divisional Probability: 6.0%
- Super Bowl Probability: 1.2%
Out goes Mike McDaniel, in comes Jeff Hafley as the new head coach of the Miami Dolphins. The resulting switch at the top of their coaching staff could mean a step back on offense, but given their struggles on defense in 2025, it could be a sacrifice they’re willing to make in 2026.
Miami seems to be moving on from Tua Tagovailoa this offseason, providing doubt around who will distribute the ball to some of their talented weapons in 2026. They have some intriguing pieces along their defensive line, but the secondary needs work. There seem to be too many questions around the Dolphins for them to turn it around immediately.
Minnesota Vikings
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.9-9.1
- Playoff Probability: 25.8%
- Divisional Probability: 8.7%
- Super Bowl Probability: 2.0%
The Minnesota Vikings have a great coaching staff, a strong group of weapons, some solid offensive linemen, and a dominant defensive line. So what’s holding them back from being one of the top teams in the NFL? Frankly, that comes down heavily to the quarterback position.
Year 1 of J.J. McCarthy’s stint as Minnesota’s starting quarterback didn’t go according to plan. It’s a particularly bad look when the quarterback they let leave in free agency last year, Sam Darnold, led his team to the Super Bowl the following year. The Vikings have a great foundation in place, but if their passing attack doesn’t work, it’ll all be for naught.
New England Patriots
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.2-7.8
- Playoff Probability: 60.6%
- Divisional Probability: 32.3%
- Super Bowl Probability: 9.8%
Responsible for the biggest turnaround in the NFL in 2025, the New England Patriots looked the part this year under head coach Mike Vrabel. Drake Maye, leading the charge at quarterback, gives their offense plenty of firepower, and their defense has a handful of strong contributors, especially up front.
Facing a first-place schedule in 2026, rather than the fourth-place schedule they had this year, plays a big role in PFSN’s model, projecting a decrease in wins for the Patriots. That said, the defending AFC champions are still favored to make a postseason appearance next season.
New Orleans Saints
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.6-9.4
- Playoff Probability: 27.6%
- Divisional Probability: 21.0%
- Super Bowl Probability: 1.5%
Don’t sleep on the New Orleans Saints as a sneaky team to win the NFC South and take advantage of a weak division to make the playoffs. They finished the year 6-11, but ended the year 5-3, including a 4-1 record in their final five games. Tyler Shough stepped into the starting lineup and showed encouraging flashes as their QB.
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The Saints aren’t out of salary cap hell just yet, but they’re getting there. Expect the 2026 NFL Draft to be their focus for improving on both sides of the ball. Once they have more money to spend in 2027, look out. For now, though, developing their current roster will be the name of the game for New Orleans next season.
New York Giants
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.4-9.6
- Playoff Probability: 19.9%
- Divisional Probability: 10.5%
- Super Bowl Probability: 1.3%
Hiring John Harbaugh as their head coach instantly raises the floor for the New York Giants’ 2026 season. He’s only had three losing seasons in 16 years as an NFL head coach, and he’s only had fewer than eight wins in one year. Granted, he had more talented rosters in Baltimore, but the cupboard isn’t bare in the Big Apple.
Jaxson Dart showed encouraging flashes for a Giants offense that will return Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo from injury in 2026. Their defensive line is loaded with talent, too. It will be interesting to see if they extend wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson, as well as if how they use the 2026 NFL Draft to shore up their offensive line and secondary.
New York Jets
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.5-10.5
- Playoff Probability: 14.2%
- Divisional Probability: 4.7%
- Super Bowl Probability: 0.7%
The New York Jets face arguably the steepest battle towards success in 2026 of any team in the NFL. They don’t have an answer at quarterback and face difficulty finding one this year, seeing as though they pick at No. 2 in the 2026 NFL Draft without a QB2 worth taking that high. Their roster is also riddled with holes on both sides of the ball.
Luckily, the Jets have an abundance of draft capital from trading Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams before the 2025 NFL trade deadline. That should help them make investments in their future on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately for them, they’ll need a lot more than a strong rookie class to make the playoffs in 2026.
Philadelphia Eagles
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.4-7.6
- Playoff Probability: 56.2%
- Divisional Probability: 39.2%
- Super Bowl Probability: 8.4%
Going into 2026, the Philadelphia Eagles are favored to win the NFC East for the third year in a row, making them the first team in that division to three-peat as champions in over 20 years. However, they look a lot more vulnerable than they did as the brand-new Super Bowl champions this time last year.
Their offense took a step back with Kellen Moore’s departure as offensive coordinator. Two of their star offensive linemen, Lane Johnson and Landon Dickerson, are mulling retirement. Longtime offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland is leaving the team, too. There’s a ton of talent on the Eagles’ roster, but the cracks are showing.
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.6-9.4
- Playoff Probability: 29.1%
- Divisional Probability: 14.4%
- Super Bowl Probability: 2.1%
Mike McCarthy was selected as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ successor to longtime head coach Mike Tomlin, though doubts remain around whether he’ll be an upgrade. Tomlin’s biggest issue was that he could lead his team to the playoffs but not succeed after that. After McCarthy’s Super Bowl run with the Packers in 2010, he’s been 7-11 in the postseason.
The Steelers have an older but talented defense, and they ran multiple tight end sets with the best of them. Whether it’s Aaron Rodgers or somebody else at quarterback, they’ll have to hope their offense becomes more explosive under McCarthy. They’ve lacked that level of juice on that side of the ball since Ben Roethlisberger left.
San Francisco 49ers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.9-7.1
- Playoff Probability: 63.8%
- Divisional Probability: 30.3%
- Super Bowl Probability: 11.7%
Despite all their injuries in 2025, the San Francisco 49ers still finished 12-5 and won in the Wild Card Round. Kyle Shanahan’s ability to lead a hobbled team to being one of the best in the NFL earned him the fourth-most Coach of the Year first-place votes this season.
If the likes of Nick Bosa, George Kittle, and Fred Warner stay healthy in 2026, there’s no telling how good the 49ers can be next year. They’re always a safe bet to stay competitive, and they’ve made the postseason five of the last seven years. Injuries and a tough divisional schedule are the only things standing in their way of doing it again next year.
Seattle Seahawks
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 10.1-6.9
- Playoff Probability: 67.3%
- Divisional Probability: 34.9%
- Super Bowl Probability: 14.5%
After Sam Darnold led them all the way to the Super Bowl this year, there’s no denying that the Seattle Seahawks are an NFL juggernaut now. Their defense was one of the best in the league in 2025, and their offense’s ability to run the ball up the middle and explode for big gains through the air makes them very tough to stop.
Seattle has a few starting defenders hitting free agency this offseason, though it has a lot of cap space to work with. To repeat as NFC champions, finding solid replacements for any defensive backs they may lose and continuing to improve the offensive line will be key for the Seahawks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.0-9.0
- Playoff Probability: 34.5%
- Divisional Probability: 27.2%
- Super Bowl Probability: 2.1%
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had finished first in the NFC South every year Todd Bowles was their head coach before 2025, but that streak ended this past season. Their collapse in the second half of the year saw them blow their 6-2 start and finish 8-9, out of the NFL postseason.
New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson will be tasked with helping Baker Mayfield rebound after a down year in 2025. The Buccaneers have plenty of weapons for him to throw to, and their defense has enough pieces. They’re not a flawless team, but getting Mayfield back into gear should be enough for them to win the division.
Tennessee Titans
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.0-10.0
- Playoff Probability: 19.3%
- Divisional Probability: 6.8%
- Super Bowl Probability: 1.1%
With new head coach Robert Saleh at the helm, the Tennessee Titans are aiming for greater stability after Brian Callahan’s disastrous tenure. They got encouraging play from rookie QB Cam Ward near the end of the season, which is a bright spot in what was otherwise a rough first season in the NFL for him.
The Titans need investments on both sides of the ball, particularly in skill-position upgrades on offense and just about everything on defense. They’ll have the No. 4 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft to use on a potential difference-maker. Improvement could be seen in Tennessee next year, but don’t expect this team to make the playoffs just yet.
Washington Commanders
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.7-9.3
- Playoff Probability: 43.3%
- Divisional Probability: 27.4%
- Super Bowl Probability: 5.0%
The Washington Commanders were the big turnaround team of 2024, going from 4-13 to 12-5 and making it all the way to the NFC Championship Game. They fell back down to Earth in 2025, though, as Jayden Daniels missed time due to injury, and the rest of the roster couldn’t keep up in his absence.
Though Daniels also regressed when he was actually healthy, there’s reason to believe the Commanders bounce back in 2025. They have a top-ten pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, and they have the fifth-most cap space in the NFL this offseason. They have a serious chance to build a strong foundation around their young quarterback and return to the playoffs.
