The preseason is underway for the 2026-27 NFL season. For the rookies around the league, this means that their dream of playing in the NFL is right around the corner. The next few weeks will serve as a ramp-up period before they each make their regular season debut for their respective teams.
A lot of eyes will be on the first-round picks to come out of the 2026 NFL Draft. Naturally, with those 32 players being selected on the first day of the draft, they’ll have the highest expectations to produce in most cases.
But what kind of numbers should we expect from these rookies? It’s tough to predict, especially factoring in the unfortunate possibility of injuries. Using historical comparisons and projected roles going into the season, though, here are PFN’s projected stat lines for every first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Arizona Cardinals: Jeremiyah Love, RB
As of this writing, Jeremiyah Love has found his reputation limited by comments from Arizona Cardinals offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Despite being the No. 3 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, it appears Love has been up and down in summer workouts compared to the likes of James Conner and Tyler Allgeier.
Love obviously has the highest ceiling of the bunch, and I believe the Cardinals will accelerate his workload as the season progresses. However, with a lackluster offense around him and a crowded backfield in Arizona, I think he falls just short of 1,000 rushing yards. He’ll see plenty of targets in the passing game, though, as his team will likely be playing from behind often.
Projection: 12 starts, 956 rushing yards, 7 rushing touchdowns, 63 receptions, 483 receiving yards, 2 receiving touchdowns
Baltimore Ravens: Vega Ioane, G
Fair warning that it’s difficult to put a general statistics projection out for offensive linemen, simply because basic stats don’t cover everything they bring to the table. That’s what the PFN OL Impact Score is for! But in the case of Vega Ioane, he figures to be someone who starts for the Baltimore Ravens right out of the gate.
Paving the way for Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, Ioane’s run blocking should be well highlighted as a rookie. Though many offensive line rookies have their ups and downs, I believe Ioane’s pro-ready skill set he displayed at Penn State should make his transition to the NFL pretty painless.
Projection: 17 starts, 2 sacks allowed
Carolina Panthers: Monroe Freeling, T
Taylor Moton is expected to miss the start of the season due to blood clot issues, and Ikem Ekwonu is currently on the PUP list. This should present opportunities for Monroe Freeling to start for the Carolina Panthers as a rookie, though that might not be sustained once the starters come back from injury.
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Freeling is a tremendous athlete who’s more advanced technically than you’d expect for someone who only started one year at Georgia. However, given his inexperience, the Panthers will likely play it safe with his rookie year. I could see him display some intriguing flashes of mobility in pass protection in 2026, but most of his rookie year could come in spurts of playing time once Moton and Ekwonu return.
Projection: 5 starts, 1 sack allowed
Chicago Bears: Dillon Thieneman, S
Dillon Thieneman should have the chance to put up big numbers as a rookie, being a projected Day 1 starter. The Chicago Bears’ defensive backs coach Al Harris has a history of getting the most out of his defensive backs from a turnover perspective, and I think Thieneman’s quick mental trigger in coverage and high-level athleticism are a great fit for the system.
Every first-year player has his rookie mistakes, and Thieneman could get beat deep from time to time. But he should be in position to make several big plays, both in coverage and as a run defender, because of those aforementioned traits and his defensive versatility.
Projection: 16 starts, 3 interceptions, 8 pass deflections, 1 forced fumble, 73 tackles, 2 tackles for loss
Cleveland Browns: Spencer Fano, T
After spending the last two years at Utah as a right tackle, Spencer Fano will be kicking out to left tackle for the Cleveland Browns, a position he hasn’t played full-time since 2023. That in itself could provide a slight learning curve for him as a rookie, especially since most players switch from the right side to the left side, rather than the other way around.
Fano’s mobility should serve him well at the NFL level, as should the timing and placement of his strikes. The footwork switching sides could take a little while to get back into the habit of, though, and he could struggle early on against power. That said, expect a solid rookie year from him as the Browns’ blindside protector, showing flashes of what’s to come.
Projection: 15 starts, 5 sacks allowed
Cleveland Browns: KC Concepcion, WR
The Browns’ other first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, KC Concepcion should have the chance to battle for their WR1 role right out of the gate. Granted, he’ll be fighting for touches with Harold Fannin Jr., draft classmate Denzel Boston, and Jerry Jeudy, but Concepcion’s big-play ability arguably gives him the highest ceiling of the bunch.
All told, Concepcion’s speed should see him manufactured touches early on in Cleveland’s season. As he gets more comfortable in the offense, he could have the chance to really shine. Fannin is stiff competition for that top receiving yards spot on the Browns’ roster given his great rookie year, but Concepcion should be a strong contender in his own rookie year, too.
Projection: 14 starts, 58 receptions, 776 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns
Dallas Cowboys: Caleb Downs, S
Caleb Downs joins the Dallas Cowboys as one of the most pro-ready safety prospects in recent memory, and one could argue he was the best player in the 2026 NFL Draft, excluding positional value. He joins a Cowboys defense in desperate need of some rejuvenation, ranking dead last in PFN Defense Impact Scoring last year.
Though Downs never had “out of this world” ball production in college, he was always a playmaker who could limit big plays while coming downhill and making big plays of his own. His interception totals should be solid in 2026, but look to his completion percentage and passer rating allowed as better indicators of a strong rookie year.
Projection: 16 starts, 2 interceptions, 10 pass deflections, 1 forced fumble, 83 tackles, 1 tackle for loss
Dallas Cowboys: Malachi Lawrence, EDGE
With the second of their two first-round picks in the 2026 NFL Draft, the Cowboys boosted their trenches by adding Malachi Lawrence to their edge rushing group. He’ll join the likes of Rashan Gary, Donovan Ezeiruaku, and James Houston IV to put together a deeper group than what Dallas had rushing off the edge for much of last season.
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Lawrence is a freak athlete but comes into the NFL a little bit raw as a pass-rushing technician. This could place him into a rotational role as a rookie, while Gary and Ezeiruaku handle a lion’s share of the reps off the edge. There could be a learning curve as he sorts out his counter arsenal, but some splash plays seem likely along the way.
Projection: 3 starts, 3.5 sacks, 26 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 1 forced fumble
Detroit Lions: Blake Miller, T
With Penei Sewell making the switch over to left tackle this year, the Detroit Lions brought in Blake Miller as their first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. An experienced starter at Clemson with a strong testing profile at the NFL Scouting Combine, he should be a Day 1 starter along the Lions’ offensive line post-Taylor Decker.
Miller will have his work cut out for him, going up against the likes of Micah Parsons, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Montez Sweat in the NFC North. That could provide some rough spots over the course of his rookie season, as is the case with most rookie offensive tackles. That said, his nastiness should thrive in the run game, paving the way for Jahmyr Gibbs in the trenches.
Projection: 16 starts, 6 sacks allowed
Houston Texans: Keylan Rutledge, C
A guard during his time at Georgia Tech, Keylan Rutledge will be making the shift over to center for the Houston Texans this year. It’s a position he didn’t take any snaps at during his collegiate career, though he did show promise snapping in the pre-draft circuit.
Rutledge’s explosiveness and rugged demeanor could make him an impact performer in the run game as a rookie, though a learning curve playing at a new position at a higher level is to be expected. All told, though, he should be able to put together a solid year.
Projection: 14 starts, 3 sacks allowed
Kansas City Chiefs: Mansoor Delane, CB
The Kansas City Chiefs traded up to secure Mansoor Delane, and the consensus top cornerback in the 2026 NFL Draft should be an immediate starter in their secondary. That will provide plenty of chances for him to make big plays, but it could also see him tested often by the WR1s across the NFL as a rookie.
Though it’s tough to do, the likes of Devon Witherspoon and Sauce Gardner have made it to the Pro Bowl as rookies. Delane projects at a similar level as a prospect as those players, so it’s possible he thrives right out of the gate. There could be some rough patches along the way, but his quick processing and hip fluidity displayed against SEC competition should translate well to the NFL.
Projection: 16 starts, 2 interceptions, 11 pass deflections, 58 tackles
Kansas City Chiefs: Peter Woods, DT
The Chiefs used the draft pick they acquired for trading Trent McDuffie on Peter Woods, the gifted Clemson defensive tackle who admittedly had better tape in 2024 than he did in 2025. That could provide some questions about how he’ll fare making the jump to the NFL, but he’ll also be rushing alongside the likes of Chris Jones and George Karlaftis in Kansas City.
Woods is a twitchy 3-technique defender who can also two-gap pretty well against the run with his low pad level and sturdy anchor. His counter game might struggle in the NFL in the early going, but he should be a solid contributor for the Chiefs’ defensive line in the early going.
Projection: 12 starts, 42 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 6 tackles for loss
Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB
Though the Las Vegas Raiders used the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft on Fernando Mendoza, it appears as though Kirk Cousins will be their Week 1 starter at quarterback. That might be the case to begin the year, but coming off a career-low 73.1 PFN QB Impact Score, Cousins could be replaced if he gets off to a slow start.
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Assuming Mendoza takes over a few weeks into the season, expect him to elevate the Raiders’ offense beyond what it was in 2025. Their unit is hardly a finished product, and a shaky offensive line could provide some rushed decisions for him in the pocket. All told, though, his accuracy, decision-making, and physical and mental toughness he showed at Indiana should translate well to the NFL.
Projection: 13 starts, 2,821 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 189 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns
Los Angeles Chargers: Akheem Mesidor, EDGE
Akheem Mesidor is a sixth-year senior heading into the NFL, so he’s had more time to hone his craft at the collegiate level and develop as a technician. That should be good news for the Los Angeles Chargers in the short term, even if they don’t necessarily need him to be an impact performer right out of the gate.
Currently, Tuli Tuipulotu and Khalil Mack are designated to start at the Chargers’ two edge rusher spots. That will leave Mesidor in a rotational role, but it’s one he could thrive in without a heavy workload to tire him out. He could start a few games here and there if the starters get hurt, but expect most of his 2026 to come as a high-performing backup.
Projection: 4 starts, 5.5 sacks, 32 tackles, 5 tackles for loss
Los Angeles Rams: Ty Simpson, QB
In an ideal world for the Los Angeles Rams, Ty Simpson wouldn’t have to play much at all in his rookie season. They have Matthew Stafford coming off an MVP season, and with their offseason acquisitions of Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie, they’re pushing in all their chips to secure another Super Bowl win before Stafford retires.
I have Simpson starting for the Rams in Week 18, assuming they’ll have a playoff spot and seeding locked up by then and choose to sit their starters. Given Stafford’s age, there’s always a chance he gets hurt and thrusts the rookie into the lineup, but it should be a quiet Year 1 in the NFL for Simpson.
Projection: 1 start, 218 passing yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 15 rushing yards
Miami Dolphins: Kadyn Proctor, G
I actually think Kadyn Proctor is better off at guard than he would be staying at tackle in the NFL. His play strength, short-area quickness, and aggressiveness should thrive along the interior over time, and his long speed and strike timing in pass protection can be better masked inside.
The Miami Dolphins figure to be a No. 1 pick contender for the 2027 NFL Draft, so Proctor could have plenty of reps in pass protection as they play from behind. He could have some issues being a raw technician playing a new position, though working alongside standout center Aaron Brewer should help.
Projection: 15 starts, 4 sacks allowed
Miami Dolphins: Chris Johnson, CB
Chris Johnson faces the challenge of being the only Group of 5 prospect on this list, meaning he has the hardest competition learning curve ahead of him of the bunch. That said, he demonstrated sharp coverage instincts and a scrappy demeanor at San Diego State, which could help ease his transition to the NFL a little bit.
The Dolphins don’t have the deepest secondary in the world, so Johnson will have to be trusted on an island right out of the gate. He could have some lapses against superior route-running technicians in the pros, which could see the ball thrown his way often, but that could also result in plenty of chances to break up passes.
Projection: 16 starts, 2 interceptions, 12 pass deflections, 1 forced fumble, 88 tackles
Minnesota Vikings: Caleb Banks, DT
Having suffered two major foot injuries within the calendar year, it might be fair to temper expectations for Caleb Banks right out of the gate. The Minnesota Vikings likely have the long run in mind by picking him in the 2026 NFL Draft, hoping to maximize his impressive combination of size, length, and athleticism into a strong career.
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Banks will have his fair share of reps early as a rookie, but his pad level issues could give him problems against the run. Look more for flashes than substance out of him in Year 1 as he looks to build momentum with what would ideally be a full healthy offseason in 2027.
Projection: 10 starts, 2.5 sacks, 28 tackles, 5 tackles for loss
New England Patriots: Caleb Lomu, T
Going into 2026, Caleb Lomu projects as the New England Patriots’ swing tackle behind Will Campbell at left tackle and Morgan Moses at right tackle. Obviously, using a first-round pick indicates they view him as a future starter along their offensive line.
Lomu’s rookie year impact might be limited if one of the two incumbent starting tackles doesn’t get hurt, and injuries are tough to predict. That said, I anticipate he’ll have a few games over the course of the year to put some tape together heading into Year 2.
Projection: 5 starts, 1 sack allowed
New Orleans Saints: Jordyn Tyson, WR
The New Orleans Saints didn’t have a true impact WR2 alongside Chris Olave once they traded Rashid Shaheed to Seattle midway through the season. They now have that in Jordyn Tyson, the No. 8 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft who should be a focal point of the offense right away.
With Tyler Shough throwing the ball coming off an encouraging rookie year, Tyson has the potential to put up big numbers as a rookie, even if he might not be the bona fide WR1 on the Saints. He has an injury history, but if he can manage to stay healthy, it’s not impossible to imagine him surpassing the 1,000-yard mark.
Projection: 14 starts, 66 receptions, 903 receiving yards, 6 receiving touchdowns
New York Giants: Arvell Reese, LB
With his elite physical attributes and defensive versatility, Arvell Reese has the potential to be an impact performer for the New York Giants right out of the gate. He might not blitz off the edge as often as he did at Ohio State, given how strong they are in terms of edge rushers, but he’ll have plenty of chances to rush the passer as a rookie.
Reese might miss out on tackle attempts to the veteran Tremaine Edmunds alongside him, but he’s a freak athlete who should be deployed in a variety of different alignments in New York. He could be an NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year contender if he stays healthy and gets utilized similar to how he was in college.
Projection: 15 starts, 89 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 1 forced fumble, 4.5 sacks, 1 interception, 5 pass deflections
New York Giants: Francis Mauigoa, G
Again, it’s difficult in basic statistics to project how an offensive lineman could do in the NFL. But Francis Mauigoa kicks inside for the Giants at guard, and I think it’s a great fit for his strengths and weaknesses.
Though Mauigoa lacks ideal arm length, those questions will be a lot less pertinent playing along the interior now. Likewise, his refined hand usage and anchor strength should see him perform well against interior defensive linemen at the point of attack.
Projection: 16 starts, 2 sacks allowed
New York Jets: David Bailey, EDGE
As the No. 2 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, expectations will be high for David Bailey coming out of the gate in his first year with the New York Jets. He should have plenty of opportunities to meet those expectations, as he projects as a starting edge rusher alongside free agent signing Joseph Ossai heading into the season.
Being a little smaller for his position, Bailey could take a little while before he comes into his own as a run defender. That said, his explosiveness off the snap and deep pass-rushing arsenal should make him an impactful performer getting after the quarterback pretty quickly into his career.
Projection: 15 starts, 7.5 sacks, 42 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, 2 pass deflections
New York Jets: Kenyon Sadiq, TE
Kenyon Sadiq will have to battle with Mason Taylor for playing time at the tight end position, but with the two having vastly different skill sets, there’s reason to be optimistic the Jets find a way for both to contribute in different ways heading into 2026.
As an elite athlete with impressive twitch coming out of his breaks as a route runner, Sadiq could be more ready for a high volume in the passing game than the average rookie tight end entering the NFL. He could lose red-zone snaps out to the more muscular Taylor, but he should be a key factor in the Jets’ passing game, regardless.
Projection: 13 starts, 55 receptions, 682 receiving yards, 5 receiving touchdowns
New York Jets: Omar Cooper Jr., WR
Garrett Wilson is firmly entrenched as New York’s WR1, but the WR2 role will be up for grabs between Omar Cooper Jr., the third of their three first-round picks in the 2026 NFL Draft, and Adonai Mitchell, whom they acquired from the Colts in a midseason trade last season.
Mitchell might begin the year as the second option at wide receiver behind Wilson, but Cooper’s dynamic abilities after the catch and tremendous ball skills are too enticing to not include into the Jets’ game plan. He might not be the most productive rookie wide receiver, but he’ll have the chance to make some big plays in 2026.
Projection: 9 starts, 46 receptions, 512 receiving yards, 2 receiving touchdowns
Philadelphia Eagles: Makai Lemon, WR
With A.J. Brown officially off the team, the Philadelphia Eagles are expecting Makai Lemon to step into the role as their WR2, now that DeVonta Smith has been promoted into that WR1 spot that had previously eluded him with Brown in the room.
Lemon is a crafty route runner who can work his way open with a sharp understanding of leverage and tempo variance through his stems. He’ll have Smith and Dallas Goedert to battle for touches in the Eagles’ passing game, but he should still be quite productive as a rookie.
Projection: 15 starts, 62 receptions, 715 receiving yards, 5 receiving touchdowns
Pittsburgh Steelers: Max Iheanachor, T
It remains to be seen who will start at right tackle with Troy Fautanu projecting as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ starting left tackle in 2026. However, even if Max Iheanachor doesn’t win the job right away, the team’s decision to use a first-round pick on him in the 2026 NFL Draft is a strong indicator that he’s the intended long-term option.
Iheanachor didn’t play football until his first year of college, and that inexperience could show sometimes in his technical lapses at Arizona State. I anticipate a steeper learning curve for him making the jump to the NFL against more refined technicians off the edge, but even if his rookie year has some lumps, his upside will show out in flashes.
Projection: 11 starts, 6 sacks allowed
Seattle Seahawks: Jadarian Price, RB
With Zach Charbonnet coming off a torn ACL, Jadarian Price is the projected Week 1 starter at running back for the Seattle Seahawks. Price finds himself in another split backfield after doing so with Jeremiyah Love at Notre Dame, though this is one tandem where the former stands a better chance of getting a higher dose of carries.
Given Charbonnet’s experience with the Seahawks, it’s reasonable to think he’ll play a bigger role once he returns from injury than Price will as a rookie. However, it’s entirely possible Seattle views Price in that Kenneth Walker III role as the 1A to Charbonnet’s 1B, in which case a 1,000-yard season would be entirely possible.
Projection: 9 starts, 832 rushing yards, 7 rushing touchdowns, 24 receptions, 193 receiving yards, 2 receiving touchdowns
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE
Rueben Bain Jr. is a physical, intelligent, refined edge rusher who has the anchor strength to set the edge and the pass-rushing knowledge needed to string moves together to shed blocks. That skill set makes him a likely Day 1 contributor for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2026.
Though other edge defenders in this class may be quicker or have longer arms, Bain is the most polished of the bunch, in my eyes. His physicality should help him contribute in the run game early in his NFL career, and his polished hand usage could see him put up some solid sack numbers right away.
Projection: 16 starts, 6.5 sacks, 54 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 2 forced fumbles
Tennessee Titans: Carnell Tate, WR
There’s a possibility Wan’Dale Robinson grows into the WR1 role for the Tennessee Titans, but considering they used the No. 4 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft on Carnell Tate, it’s reasonable to think the latter stands a better chance. His size and expansive catch radius should make him a reliable target in tight windows for Cam Ward.
Robinson offers more flexibility in terms of what he offers after the catch, but Tate’s craftiness executing the vertical stem and coordination attacking the ball in the air make him a high-upside receiver in the NFL. Don’t be surprised if he becomes another instance of a rookie wide receiver breaking out for 1,000 yards right away.
Projection: 16 starts, 81 receptions, 1,058 receiving yards, 6 receiving touchdowns
Tennessee Titans: Keldric Faulk, EDGE
After selecting Tate, the Titans traded back up into Round 1 to add Keldric Faulk to their defensive line. The inside-outside versatile defender from Auburn has the size, length, raw power, and quickness to project as an impact performer in the NFL in due time.
It might take a while for Faulk to add to his hand activity, and his lack of flexibility can hurt his upside as a speed rusher off the edge. With Jermaine Johnson II, John Franklin-Myers, and Femi Oladejo in the mix, Faulk won’t be relied upon for instant production, but that might end up playing in his favor as he grows confidence and polishes his game in a rotational role in Tennessee.
Projection: 3 starts, 2.5 sacks, 32 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 3 pass deflections
Washington Commanders: Sonny Styles, LB
Though the Washington Commanders have Leo Chenal and Frankie Luvu at linebacker, Sonny Styles projects as a replacement for the latter, who’s coming off a down year. Styles is a physical freak with prototypical size, length, speed, and fluidity for the linebacker position in the modern NFL, making him a well-deserved top-ten pick this year.
With his experience at safety early on in his collegiate career, I could see Styles make some plays in coverage right out of the gate for the Commanders. His elite athleticism gives him the ability to cover a significant amount of ground, which could see him put up some big tackling numbers, too.
Projection: 16 starts, 122 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 3 interceptions, 7 pass deflections, 3.0 sacks
