With the 2023 NFL regular season in the books, it’s officially time to start with the fantasy football mock draft content for 2024! It goes without saying that a million things will change between now and your late-summer draft, but fantasy football greatness requires constant thought and evaluation.
We will get to the dynasty content as we progress through the NFL playoffs and into the offseason — for now, the focus is a 12-team, full-PPR redraft setting. Where could players like Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Nick Chubb go?
Fantasy Football Mock Draft
1.01 – Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
During his 27 games with the San Francisco 49ers, Christian McCaffrey is averaging 10.7 PPR points each week as a pass catcher alone. That’s basically the production that Brandin Cooks gave us in 2023.
That’s a viable starter without any rushing production at all. Add in nearly 10 points per game on handoffs, and we’re talking about a 1 of 1.
Backfields are going to committees left and right in this era of football, but the 49ers are aware that any snap with CMC off the field is a negative EV move.
McCaffrey will turn 28 years old this summer, but until I see him removed from the center of the fantasy universe, I’m not comfortable projecting it. In his first full season with Kyle Shanahan, the dynamic RB set career highs in yards per carry and touchdown receptions.
McCaffrey’s a cheat code; it’s that simple.
1.02 – Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Every young receiver record that Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua didn’t break this season is Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson’s. He’s the closest thing to unstoppable that we have in today’s game.
Injuries derailed Jefferson’s 2023 season, that much we know. But remember through four weeks this year when Jefferson was trending toward his best season?
That pace was 140 catches for 2,308 yards and 13 touchdowns! Assuming that QB Kirk Cousins is under center in 2024, it’s Jefferson who would be my bet to reach 2,000 yards.
He’s still a top-five selection.
1.03 – Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
With over 110 catches in back-to-back-to-back seasons, Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill is excelling at blending volume with his game-breaking skills, and there’s no reason to think that changes in 2024.
Hill wasn’t shy about his optimism surrounding this offense — calling for 2,000 yards is aggressive, even by NFL WR standards — entering the season, and he has doubled down in his faith in Tua Tagovailoa whenever given the opportunity.
Hill is on a peak Antonio Brown type of run, one that saw the former Pittsburgh Steelers WR regularly top the fantasy draft boards. It’s also a run that saw Brown record his career high in touchdowns in his ninth season.
Yes, 2024 will be Hill’s Year 9.
1.04 – CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
With every season, Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb’s statistical profile improves. And with every passing season, he looks just as good as his numbers suggest that he is.
Lamb set career highs in catch rates and touchdowns in 2023 while setting franchise records in receptions and yards. What else is there to say?
MORE: NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Strategy — One-and-Done Formats
His path to being the WR1 overall is reasonably clear. While Jefferson and Hill have another WR in town that is capable of eating up targets at an increasing rate, Lamb doesn’t.
Brandin Cooks had a nice season, but he’s on the back nine of his career, and there isn’t a promising young WR on this roster that has shown us proof of concept.
1.05 – Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown — aka, The Sun God — has 90+ catches in each of his first three seasons. That’s something that neither Jefferson nor Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase did. Hill didn’t have a single 90-catch season through his first three years in the league, and former Lions WR Calvin Johnson had two 90-catch seasons in his career.
Of course, reception count isn’t everything, but it’s a good place to start. St. Brown’s TD rate jumped by more than 40% this year from his first two in the NFL, giving him the type of skill set that has the potential to lead the position in fantasy points.
In 2022, St. Brown only scored at home, where we consistently got strong play from QB Jared Goff. This season, however, the vast majority of his scores came on the road despite Goff again being a different home/road QB.
That may sound like a goofy thread to pull, but it hints at St. Brown’s ability to succeed in less-than-optimal conditions.
He’s as much of a threat to lead all receivers in fantasy points in 2024 as anyone.
1.06 – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
In a season with up-and-down play from Tee Higgins, combined with a Joe Burrow injury, Chase gave us his highest catch rate of his career and more than doubled his career number of double-digit reception games.
Chase is as capable as any receiver in the game of providing year-end numbers that pace the position, but he does carry a little more volatility week-over-week than the four WRs I have ranked ahead of him.
We’re splitting hairs at the top of the board. If you want to chase the Chase-ceiling season, you’ll be getting a nice scheduling bump as a result of Cincinnati’s divisional finish this season. If “Joe Cool” is at full strength, I’m happy to match Chase’s weekly ceiling against that of anyone.
1.07 – A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown set a career high in receptions last season, his first with the team. By the end of Week 14 of 2023, he had surpassed that number.
Brown averages over a touchdown every two games for his career, and I think there’s room for growth from what he did this year.
Brown’s yards per catch dipped by over 18% this season despite an aDOT (average depth of target) that was right in line with where it stood in 2022. If a few of those deep targets connect for bigger plays in 2024 than 2023, the path for a career year is certainly there for Brown.
1.08 – Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
I want to bet on the Indianapolis Colts, and RB Jonathan Taylor is the known commodity at the center of an offense that we expect to take off with QB Anthony Richardson under center in 2024.
All season long, it has been clear that Indy is the rare team that believes in having a true bell cow. And assuming that Taylor enters 2024 at full strength, he deserves to be ranked where he was pre-injury in 2022.
My guess is that you think Taylor is older than he is. He turns 25 in less than two weeks.
There aren’t many “sure things” when it comes to role when healthy, but JT is on that list. We have over 50 games of proof that he’s a game-breaking talent at this level.
1.09 – Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons rookie RB Bijan Robinson finished with over 1,300 yards in a season in which we were all crying about his inconsistent usage. Was 2023 his floor?
BIJAN ROBINSON GETS LOOSE 💨
The #Falcons offense is rolling today!#DirtyBirds | #NFL
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365)
From his vision, to his cuts, to his route-running ability, Robinson’s rookie season should be viewed as an encouraging one. The profile that we all wanted to bet on is there, and if the team unleashes him for another 4-6 touches per game, him finishing atop full-PPR leagues in total fantasy points is very much a possibility.
In the first round, you want players that aren’t going to lose you your league and have the potential to make you unbeatable for weeks at a time. Robinson is very much that.
1.10 – Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
My guess is that I’m going to be higher on New Orleans Saints WR Chris Olave than most, but consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to open a career — despite questionable QB play — is not nothing.
I think there are St. Brown levels of consistency potential here in terms of volume, and Olave’s ability to produce the big play is something we know is in his bag.
A tough five-game stretch in the first half of the season suppressed Olave’s final stat line a bit. Iron that out, and a true breakout in 2024 is very possible. In the second half of the season, the pride of Ohio State gave us six straight games with a touchdown or over 110 receiving yards — Olave’s ceiling is higher than you think.
1.11 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
Twice in his rookie campaign — a season in which Detroit Lions RB David Montgomery easily cleared 200 touches and set a career high in touchdowns — did Jahmyr Gibbs rattle off three straight games with over 80 scrimmage yards and a touchdown.
Through the fantasy season, he averaged north of 5.0 yards per carry, while catching over 74% of his targets. Gibbs’ usage grew as the season progressed, and the Lions won their first division title in 30 years with him playing a massive role in their success.
Additionally, there was fantasy meat left on the bone. Lots of it.
Gibbs had one double-digit carry game through September and finished the fantasy season without a 40-yard touch, something that is tough to believe if you watched a single game of his this year.
The sky is the limit for Gibbs, and there’s zero reason to hesitate in labeling him as a foundational piece in 2024.
1.12 – Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
In 12 games this season, Los Angeles Rams RB Kyren Williams produced top-10 numbers eight times and was twice as likely to finish an active week as a top-three RB as he was to finish outside of the top 20.
Williams will be just 24 years old heading into next season and plays for an offense that has a pair of elite-target earners who make loading the box essentially impossible (15th highest-light box rate — in a season that started without him being labeled as an elite threat, WR Puka Nacua being an unknown, and WR Cooper Kupp on the shelf).
MORE: Kyren Williams Dynasty Value
We saw Williams show a nice role in the passing game this season, something that is consistent with the profile he provided us coming out of Notre Dame.
If the percentage of his touches that are receptions can rise from 12.3% to the 16-18% range — rates that Saquon Barkley posted in 2022 and Travis Etienne Jr. did in 2023 — he could top this non-CMC tier at the position.
2.01 – Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
First-Round Pick: RB Kyren Williams
There wasn’t one thing that went the way of New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson in his sophomore season. And yet, he cleared 1,000 yards and saw his target rate increase from his impressive rookie campaign.
Wilson was being drafted as a low-end WR1 over the summer, and I’m more optimistic on him now than I was then, given that we have an extended sample of just how overwhelming his raw talent is with the level of QB play he’s battled.
If Wilson gets even average QB play, he’s a top-15 WR. If he gets more than that, he could provide you with Round 1 value.
2.02 – Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
First-Round Pick: RB Jahmyr Gibbs
In a season that featured the moving on from his friend Aaron Rodgers under center and numerous injuries that greatly impacted the potency of this offense, Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams did what he does — average target totals in the neighborhood of 10 times per game.
There’s no need to sell you on Adams’ skill set, he’s done that for a decade now. The fact that there is seemingly nothing that can stop him from seeing elite volume is why he can be considered a WR1 in 2024.
2.03 – Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
First-Round Pick: WR Chris Olave
If not for absolute duds in Weeks 2-3 as the Jets were in the process of changing their entire scheme from an Aaron Rodgers-based approach to, well … something different, Breece Hall would have posted over 1,500 scrimmage yards with double-digit touchdowns.
Let that sink in: for a bottom-five scoring offense, Hall was that close to posting an elite season.
What happens if this offense sees their points per game increase by 35-40% and gets to around the league average? What if they average one more red-zone trip per game and get to the league average in that regard?
We saw McCaffrey (his 1,000/1,000 season) and Adrian Peterson (career highs in touchdowns and receptions) take big fantasy steps forward in Year 3. Those are unique talents, and it’s within the range of outcomes that we have a 2024 league winner in New York.
2.04 – Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
First-Round Pick: Bijan Robinson
This is a tricky situation. It wouldn’t shock me if Stefon Diggs’ ADP tanked after word surfaced that the Buffalo Bills were limiting what they wanted him to do down the stretch this season.
That said, I’m more likely to bet on this profile than I am to fade it. Some players fall off an age cliff in short order, but we’re talking about a player who was pacing for 140.3 catches through Halloween.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
Diggs has reached triple figures in receptions in every season with the Bills and still looks like the lone elite target earner in this offense, one that figures to rate among the best in the league again in 2024.
Do I think he’d get drafted at this spot if you drafted tomorrow? I don’t. Could we get there with a strong summer? I think it’s at least possible, and that’s the approach I’m taking.
2.05 – Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts
First-Round Pick: RB Jonathan Taylor
You’ll notice that this team has opened their draft with a pair of Colts. This debate comes up every draft season — can you start two players on the same team who are, to a degree, inversely correlated?
Yes. Yes, you can. And you can do it with confidence if you buy Richardson to the level that I do.
If the Colts are going to be moving the ball up and down the field, everyone involved benefits. That’s easy to understand but, for some reason, difficult to execute.
I want to start talented players on strong offenses, two boxes that are checked in the case of both Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr.
Indianapolis’ clear WR1 has seen his catch count increase every season of his career. With Richardson adding a new wrinkle to this offense, it wouldn’t shock me at all if 2024 was Pittman’s best fantasy season to date.
Assuming that he’s a member of this team next season, I have Pittman penciled in for a minor dip in receptions but an increase in scoring equity — a tradeoff I’ll happily take.
2.06 – Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
First-Round Pick: WR A.J. Brown
In his second season, Travis Etienne Jr. saw his role in the passing game increase, music to the ears of fantasy managers far and wide.
Development isn’t a linear thing — it happens at different rates for everyone. For me, the important part is proof of concept.
With Etienne flashing elite potential on the ground last season and consistent work through the air this season, the pieces are in place for a potentially elite 2024.
2.07 – Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
First-Round Pick: WR Ja’Marr Chase
Kupp will turn 31 years old this summer, a tricky age when it comes to trying to project regression. Personally, I think we still have a year or two before having to really adjust our expectations, especially with the support he now has in the form of his teammate Nacua.
Kupp scored in four of his final five games this season with his fantasy fall-off more being the result of a dip in catch rate.
If QB Matthew Stafford is back and Kupp enters 2024 at full strength, I expect that to correct itself (62.1% this season, career catch rate prior: 72.9%), thus landing Kupp inside my top 20 overall, even after accounting for some health/age risk.
2.08 – De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
First-Round Pick: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
It’s impossible to not fall in love with what De’Von Achane can do with the ball in his hands, and I expect we see a more consistent role in 2024.
MORE: De’Von Achane Dynasty Value
It’s not that I think Raheem Mostert is going away, but if this is more of a 50-50 split, Achane turning in a 2022 Tony Pollard season with around 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns is very much in play.
2.09 – Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
First-Round Pick: WR CeeDee Lamb
Injury concerns. Offensive ineptitude. A lack of a supporting cast.
Despite all of those things, New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley cleared 1,100 total yards and scored at least eight times for the fourth time in his five healthy seasons.
In a perfect world, I want my RB1 to have a realistic chance to lead the position in total fantasy points for the season (and by “lead the position,” I mean “finish second to McCaffrey”), upside that I think Barkley still has access to with 2023 serving as something of a floor.
2.10 – Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
First-Round Pick: WR Tyreek Hill
There is no shortage of players in this league who post a big number in terms of reception count or yards per catch. But when a single player does both, he deserves our attention in a major way.
I understand that the number of playmakers in San Francisco can be a pain, but Brandon Aiyuk was able to catch a handful of passes in the majority of his games this season, an impressive feat in this system.
Aiyuk was nothing short of elite this season on a yards-per-route run basis and was able to post strong scoring metrics despite rarely being used in the red zone.
What if the next part of his development includes a spike in looks near the end zone?
2.11 – Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
First-Round Pick: WR Justin Jefferson
The record-breaking Ram took our breath away with 25 catches over his first two games and was highly productive for his entire first season outside of a slow month around a Stafford injury.
Kupp was inactive to start the season, and there was a little learning curve when he returned. Nevertheless, things got ironed out with time, and Nacua proved that his ability to get open was here to stay.
As long as Stafford (aka “The WR Whisperer”) is back under center, there should be zero hesitation in assuming that both Rams WRs can produce strong numbers on a very consistent basis.
2.12 – Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
First-Round Pick: RB Christian McCaffrey
I don’t want to say that Houston Texans WR Nico Collins averaged more fantasy points per target in his third season than Julio Jones did in his second, but I won’t say that that’s not true.
Jones and Collins have similar physical profiles. Both came from a school that lost in the College Football Playoff this season, and both were developing early in their career alongside a QB labeled as the future of the franchise.
No, I don’t think Collins is the next Jones. But I do feel good about his spot atop the hierarchy of an offense that we all feel good about moving forward.
Those prime Atlanta teams had Roddy White as a Robin to Jones’ Batman, a role I expect Tank Dell to fill. This offense is big enough to support two very productive receivers. I have Collins labeled as the superior target earner for 2024.
3.01 – DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
Roster: Christian McCaffrey and Nico Collins
It’s not that Chicago Bears WR DJ Moore can’t produce if Justin Fields isn’t his quarterback, but his ranking is certainly different should Chicago move on from their QB in favor of starting over with a rookie at the top of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Moore had a stretch this season where, in six of eight games with a healthy Fields, he cleared 18 full-PPR points. I don’t want to say that is a Rodgers/Adams sort of stat, but it’s not far off.
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I’m going to project Fields to be back — but that’s obviously a very fluid situation. My backup selection here would be 49ers WR Deebo Samuel if Fields is out of town.
I prefer Aiyuk to Samuel thanks to the edge in efficiency under Brock Purdy, but there’s no denying that the versatility of Deebo (not to mention the fact that tackling him seems like the most unpleasant thing you could possibly sign up for) creates a unique fantasy profile.
3.02 – Alvin Kamara, WR, New Orleans Saints
Roster: Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua
We know that Saints RB Alvin Kamara is going to flirt with 20 touches per game and that over one-third of touches are going to come in the passing game.
The league-winner profile that Kamara held through his first four seasons is no longer a reasonable expectation. Still, his skill profile hasn’t fallen off the cliff like that of Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler.
At the moment, I’m assuming that he continues to be featured in an offense with nice upside, which is something that has my interest as a strong RB2.
3.03 – Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Roster: Tyreek Hill and Brandon Aiyuk
My preseason hyping up of Pollard as a first-round pick proved to be misguided, and there’s going to be some serious scar tissue for those who rostered him this season.
I get it. I’m right there with you.
Either you believe that Pollard ran into bad touchdown luck or he’s a bad player, and that is why he struggled to convert his countless chances in close. I trust that the opportunities are going to continue to be there in Dallas’ offense. And while RB Rico Dowdle has had his moments, he’s a lesser version of Pollard, who is only a year younger.
That, of course, is assuming that Pollard is back in Dallas (UFA this summer). If things change, the analysis changes. But if he has a star on his helmet in 2024, I’ll still bank on his career average of 5.3 yards per touch in a feature role and take my chances.
You don’t have to.
3.04 – Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Roster: CeeDee Lamb and Saquon Barkley
I’m not a parent, but I’m told that kids grow up fast. They go from not knowing how to walk to running all over the place in the blink of an eye. That’s what Kansas City Chiefs WR Rashee Rice’s rookie season felt like.
Things were a little clunky early in the season, and head coach Andy Reid was cautious about unleashing him the same way a new parent would hesitate to un-childproof their house.
Is Rice ready? Am I putting him in a position to fail? Yes — to both.
Rice developed with time and went from crawling to sprinting over the course of a few short months. By the time we got to December, he was a target-earning animal who was garnering elite usage in the red zone and gelling with Patrick Mahomes in a fantasy-friendly way.
Congratulations if you have Rice in dynasty. If you want him in redraft, you’re going to have to pay a premium — an even higher one if you’re playing in a league with me.
3.05 – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
Roster: Amon-Ra St. Brown and De’Von Achane
The per-catch production for the man with the best end-zone dance in the NFL (it’s true, just ask my Dad — he knows everything, and that’s his stance, so I take it as fact) dipped in a significant way this season, but I’m not running for the hills.
In fact, I’m happy with how 2023 played out. Jaylen Waddle’s dip in production could regress his ADP a touch, but I view his 17.7% decline in aDOT as a path to make him a consistent fantasy option. I value consistency over single-week ceiling.
The more shallow route tree resulted in a spike in catch rate and optimizes his role next to Hill. Waddle is an explosive talent, and this Dolphins offense showed signs this season of adjusting their play-calling to his strengths.
If Miami’s goal of getting the ball in Waddle’s hands in space is again a priority, I’d look for statistical growth to occur in 2024.
3.06 – James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
Roster: Ja’Marr Chase and Cooper Kupp
Running backs averaging north of 5.0 ypc or boasting nice volume in the passing game with a catch rate over 75% are hard to find.
One who checks both of those boxes through two career seasons? Gold.
I said a month ago in a fantasy football rest-of-season strategy article that, in Year 3, James Cook could flirt with what his brother Dalvin did in his third season, and I stand by it.
James’ role as a receiver seems safe given the late-season role that he has filled and, as a part of a powerful offense that has resulted in him ranking top 10 in light box rate (54.9%) this season, there are various paths to returning value on this draft slate — not to mention the ceiling case where he returns top-15 overall value.
3.07 – Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Roster: A.J. Brown and Travis Etienne Jr.
Did Father Time take a bite out of Travis Kelce’s stat line this season? Maybe a little. (Though complaining about a season with over six catches per game from the TE position feels crazy.)
Still, Kelce didn’t break down physically. In fact, he was the only tight end in our preseason big three at the position that didn’t suffer a significant injury.
MORE: Fantasy Football Updated TE Dynasty Rankings
It’s possible that Kelce isn’t the league winner he was from 2020-22, and that the development of Rice in the WR room eats into his bottom line more in 2024 than this season. But at a position where a reliable floor is essentially impossible to find, Kelce remains a unicorn.
The narrative surrounding the 34-year-old is likely to tank Kelce’s ADP from where it stood just five months ago. I’m comfortable with pouncing in the third round.
3.08 – Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Roster: Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr.
In an era that encourages video-game numbers, nobody produces weekly quite like Jalen Hurts. He’s rushed for 10+ scores in three straight seasons, and while his consistency as a passer is still a work in progress, consecutive seasons with a completion percentage north of 66% is more than enough.
Until the rules are changed and/or Hurts’ strong supporting cast is dismantled, he’s going to be sitting atop my QB rankings. Could his style of play result in an injury? Sure, but scared money doesn’t make money, and no player in this game is “safe” from injury.
3.09 – Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Roster: Bijan Robinson and Stefon Diggs
I understand that drafting a player who will be 32 years old this April that has missed 11 games over the past two seasons may not be the profile you’re targeting. And, for the most part, that’s sharp on your part.
That said, the only rule to follow is that there is an exception to every rule.
Keenan Allen caught 97+ passes for the sixth time in seven seasons this year despite only appearing in 13 games and posted a scoring rate (4.7% of targets this season, career rate prior: 4.5%) above his career norm.
This offense is led by a QB we trust, features a declining RB, along with secondary receivers with question marks, and has a questionable defense at best — what am I missing?
There is certainly risk in a pick like this, but the floor/ceiling combination is more than enough to have my interest.
3.10 – Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Roster: Chris Olave and Breece Hall
Embrace the dip. Bengals WR Tee Higgins spent much of this season either banged up or without his franchise QB under center, circumstances that regressed his fantasy production in a significant way and could have your league-mates forgetting about the upside that resides in this soon-to-be 25-year-old.
The injury bug isn’t something that I’m reading too far into. Burrow had missed one game in two seasons entering 2023, and Higgins averaged fewer than two missed games for his career prior to this season.
Given the circumstances, Higgins giving us four high-end fantasy performances this season should be viewed as something of a success. I’m no less confident in Higgins heading into 2024 than I was heading into 2023, something that I don’t expect to be a common thought in your draft room this summer.
If he’s in Cincinnati, Higgins is a fine WR2 option with weekly upside. If he ends up hitting the open market in free agency, he could be drafted much higher than this spot.
3.11 – DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Roster: Jahmyr Gibbs and Davante Adams
Eagles WR DeVonta Smith has posted similar stat lines in consecutive seasons, which is fine, but there’s growth to be had.
Smith had three straight games earlier this season in which he was held to under 50 yards and was held to no more than five targets essentially every other week.
Does he develop into a target earner in this Eagles offense? I’m not sure either way, but if 75-1,100-7 is something of a production floor, I’m willing to spend a pick in the 40s to find out!
3.12 – DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Roster: Kyren Williams and Garrett Wilson
Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf is young Mike Evans. He has essentially the same physical profile and the same fantasy production through five career seasons as Tampa Bay’s star.
I don’t think this comparison is a stretch, and if you’re buying it, you’re buying Metcalf in 2024.
And 2025.
And 2026.
In seasons 6-8, Evans averaged 15.2 yards per catch and 13.2 touchdowns per 17 games. If you marry that with the 75-80 catches that Metcalf averages per 17 games for his career, it’s very possible that Metcalf’s star is just beginning to shine.
4.01 – Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Roster: Kyren Williams, Garrett Wilson, and DK Metcalf
Football purists out there interception shame Bills QB Josh Allen, but you know what fantasy managers shouldn’t worry about? Interceptions.
Who cares? The two points you lose with a turnover are nothing compared to the positive impact of the aggression that leads a player like Allen to the occasional giveaway.
MORE: Fantasy Football Updated QB Dynasty Rankings
Allen had more rushing touchdowns this season than the past two combined, as Buffalo is embracing his inner fullback while improving his career completion percentage.
I have zero concerns about Allen’s fantasy stock moving forward. If you’re investing in the position early, Allen is as good an option as any.
4.02 – Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Roster: Jahmyr Gibbs, Davante Adams, and DeVonta Smith
For a second straight season, Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco’s angry running style picked up over 4.5 ypc. That portion of his skill set is stable — it’s something that we saw during his time at Rutgers and has translated to the pros in a significant way.
It’s Pacheco’s development in the passing game that has me thinking the sky is the limit. His catch count more than tripled in his sophomore season, and given the potency of this offense that averages nearly four red-zone trips during the Mahomes era, this versatility fuels immense upside.
What Pacheco did this season was nothing short of special, and it’s just the beginning.
If you can’t tell, I’m in on the Chiefs in a significant way next season — keep reading for more on that!
4.03 – Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Roster: Chris Olave, Breece Hall, and Tee Higgins
Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III has cleared 1,000 scrimmage yards with a catch rate north of 77% in both of his first two seasons. While he took a step back in the ypc department this season, running mate Zach Charbonnet never really threatened his role as Seattle’s lead man.
I don’t think that changes in 2024. If Walker can blend his production on the ground from Year 1 with the per-catch numbers in Year 2, this spot on the draft board will prove to be a significant bargain.
There’s some risk of Charbonnet picking up a greater role, which needs to be baked into your season ranking. But that could mean a discount on draft day.
4.04 – Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
Roster: Bijan Robinson, Stefon Diggs, and Keenan Allen
The devastating September knee injury for Nick Chubb robbed us of the joy that comes with watching the Browns’ RB run the football. However, he wasn’t sporting a brace on the sidelines of the team’s games in mid-December, and I’m hopeful that we get him at full strength in September.
If that’s the case, is there any real reason to think Chubb is not good for 1,300 scrimmage yards and 10 scores?
His ADP might be dragged down by the assumed risk. If that’s the case — PFN readers will be taking advantage.
4.05 – Josh Jacobs, RB, TBD
Roster: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., and Jalen Hurts
I think it’s pretty clear that Raiders RB Josh Jacobs isn’t as good as his 2022 numbers suggested (2,053 scrimmage yards), but there’s no way he’s as bad as what we saw this season (3.5 ypc).
Jacobs’ ranking is largely dependent on where he lands, but in five seasons, he has a pair of 50-catch campaigns, a pair of double-digit TD seasons, and showcased the ability to stay reasonably healthy (prior to the stretch run of this season, he had missed just two games over the course of nearly four years).
My guess would be that Jacobs signs a short-term deal with a strong team that views itself as a balanced offense away from making a serious run. If that proves accurate, this is roughly the area I expect him to be drafted.
4.06 – Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Roster: A.J. Brown, Travis Etienne Jr., and Travis Kelce
Go ahead and run away from Mahomes after he set career lows in yards per pass attempt and touchdown-to-interception rate. But if you’re going to do that, send me a league invite.
Mahomes set a career high in rushing yards this season (somehow with zero scores) and was right on track with his career norm in completion. He started the season without a healthy Kelce, and the WR situation was ugly until Rice’s role was expanded.
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Long story short, you might have a buying window on an elite talent with an elite offensive mind on the sidelines and a pair of pass catchers that rank as top-50 players in my early rankings. I’m more in on buying Mahomes at what I perceive his price to be this season than I have ever been.
4.07 – Mike Evans, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Roster: Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, and James Cook
Lesson learned. We were all down on Mike Evans over the summer, and we were all wrong. Dead wrong.
At this point, he is to be labeled as a QB-proof receiver thanks to the unique physical tools at his disposal.
Evans has found paydirt at least 13 times in three of four seasons and has cleared 1,000 receiving yards in all 10 of his NFL campaigns. The week-to-week consistency drops him out of the WR1 conversation in my books, but he’s a solid WR2 to put on your roster as you embrace the upside instead of fearing the downside.
4.08 – Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
Roster: Amon-Ra St. Brown, De’Von Achane, and Jaylen Waddle
In rookie receivers, I look for a few boxes to be checked when attempting to forecast his future:
- Does he have a QB trending up?
- Does he have access to significant work?
- Has his team displayed confidence in him?
Check, check, and check. Jayden Reed started to earn targets in volume down the stretch this season, and the Packers often looked to get him cheap touches in space (handoffs, screens, etc.).
Christian Watson is a playmaker, but he doesn’t profile as an alpha target earner to me. Reed’s versatility and role make him a fantasy starter in 2024 — could he break out even further if Watson is healthier next year to demand defensive attention?
4.09 – Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Roster: CeeDee Lamb, Saquon Barkley, and Rashee Rice
Why do we embrace versatility in fantasy? Well, Rachaad White’s 2023 season is why.
Despite continued struggles in terms of efficiency on the ground, he ran into more touchdown luck, and his 3-5 catches per week buoyed his weekly numbers.
White has impressed as a pass-catching option in both of his seasons, while also staying available at a high level. I’m not trying to sell you on White as an above-average player — I’m trying to sell you on him as a high-floor RB2 that profiles as a low-risk investment in 2024. That’s rare at this position.
4.10 – Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Roster: Tyreek Hill, Brandon Aiyuk, and Tony Pollard
With the talk about Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews returning for a deep playoff run, I’m not sweating his ankle injury one bit when it comes to projecting forward.
Andrews scored more times in 10 games this year than in 15 last year, and I expect this Baltimore offense to look even better in 2024, which will be Year 2 of the Todd Monken era.
With T.J. Hockenson an injury concern, combined with Kelce’s slow finish, Andrews’ ADP could be higher than I’m giving him credit for should he prove his health this postseason.
4.11 – Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
Roster: Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, and Alvin Kamara
I understand why a running back entering his age-32 season would scare you, but if you ran away from him due to the age thing this past summer, you missed out.
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The calendar says Mostert turns 32 in April, but he’s aging slowly thanks to low usage over the first four seasons of his career. Mostert’s not a dynasty target of mine, but I have no problem in projecting him favorably for 2024 in what we expect to be an elite offense.
4.12 – Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
Roster: Christian McCaffrey, Nico Collins, and DJ Moore
It wasn’t a banner season from Green Bay RB Aaron Jones after suffering a Week 1 hamstring injury against the Bears and never really returning to full strength. The good news is his finishing kick to the season, plus Green Bay’s promising future.
This offense, namely QB Jordan Love, took monstrous developmental steps throughout the season. And with AJ Dillon yet to show much in the way of an NFL skill set, Jones should be featured in his age-29 season.
Next In Queue (By Position)
RB Javonte Williams: I’m not going to try to spin the 2023 stat line as a success, but let’s not forget that his 2022 season ended with a shredded knee (torn ACL and LCL).
We’ve seen various players return to form two years after injuries like that and, in the fourth round, betting on a fully healthy Williams who is positioned for a bell-cow role is a calculated risk I’m willing to take.
RB Austin Ekeler:Â Figuring out where to rank Ekeler is an exercise in the unknown. Why has it looked like he has had a piano on his back this season? Where will he play next year? What role will he assume and/or can he handle?
Right now, we have more questions than answers. And with skill decline suggested by every metric you look at, I’m holding him outside of my top 50 overall until I have some sort of clarity.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson: In Weeks 1-17 last season, New England Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson had 64 catches, 1,339 scrimmage yards, and six touchdowns on his résumé.
This season, if you use Stevenson’s numbers in Weeks 1-12 and Ezekiel Elliott’s in Weeks 13-17 — 63 catches, 1,200 scrimmage yards, and eight touchdowns.
RB David Montgomery: The former Bears RB easily set a career high in scores with the Lions. And while the upside is capped by limitations in the passing game and Gibbs’ ascension, this Detroit offense has proven in consecutive seasons that they can have two RBs return strong value.
RB Tyjae Spears: I expect Spears to be featured in this offense. Given the versatility that he showed as a rookie, I have zero concerns about his ability to produce in that role.
In fact, I’d argue that his proven excellence as a pass catcher this season elevates his floor in a way that many second-year backs don’t have.
WR Zay Flowers: The stat line from his rookie season was strong, and his game film is even stronger. Flowers has the ability to win on a variety of routes, and I expect this offense to be built more around his skill set in 2024 now that the team has a full season of tape to use as a guide.
WR Tank Dell: We are hopeful that the fibula injury doesn’t linger. If it doesn’t, the former third-round pick should continue to develop with C.J. Stroud.
The big-play ability is no secret (15.1 yards per catch), and the volume (43 targets in his final four games) was nothing short of impressive for an undersized receiver looking to get a feel for the professional game.
WR Chris Godwin: The scoring trends are pointing in the wrong direction, but thanks to a late-season rally in volume, Godwin’s status as a strong target earner is safe … for now.
QB Lamar Jackson: While chasing the AFC’s top overall seed, Jackson completed 73.2% of his passes with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions against the 49ers and Dolphins.
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In his first year under Monken, Jackson cleared 750 rushing yards for a fifth straight season and set a career high in completion percentage. The presumptive league MVP has room to grow statistically. Look for him to be better as a fantasy option next year in a significant way.
QB Anthony Richardson: The shoulder sprain cost us what could have been a truly special rookie season — 11.5 yards per completion with four rushing scores in four games. The injury risk is always going to be there, given Richardson’s style of play, but so will finishing any week as the game’s top scorer.
QB Dak Prescott: In each of his past three healthy seasons (13+ games played), Prescott has cleared 4,200 passing yards with at least 30 passing touchdowns. The rushing production can be shaky, but a career-best TD-INT rate this season gives Dak stable value as a pocket passer.
TE George Kittle: He produced his third 1,000-yard season, and while the production can be sporadic, Kittle’s ability to make the big play (13.6 ypc for his career) gives him slate-breaking potential every week he plays.
TE Trey McBride: Throughout the fantasy season, McBride blended efficiency (78% catch rate) with elite volume (119 catch pace if you project his numbers from Weeks 8-17 for an entire season).
TE Sam LaPorta: The record holder for receptions by a rookie tight end was consistent from the jump and profiles as the second option in this passing game for years to come.
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