Fantasy Football Rest-of-Season Strategy: Key Statistics on Tua Tagovailoa, Tony Pollard, Tee Higgins, and Others

Tua Tagovailoa, Tony Pollard, and Tee Higgins are featured players in a fantasy football outpouring of data and opinions heading into the playoffs!

Fantasy football is a funny game, isn’t it? We put in a ton of work leading up to the draft, and just a few months later, the entire landscape is different as we prepare to battle for a trophy.

The ability to adapt is what separates the good from the great in most aspects of life, and our game is no different. The NFL season is 93 days old today, so I wanted to share 93 updated thoughts (every team is included) with you about the fantasy season as you prepare for the most important time of the season.

Some are facts, some are goofy trends, and some are opinions about the future. If you’re like me, you are itching for an edge this time of year, and I hope that at least one nugget in this column helps make you a more informed decision-maker as we come down the home stretch!

For my thoughts on this week, make sure to check out the Week 14 Cheat Sheet or get at me @KyleSoppePFN on X. With that, here is what is on my mind as we head into another action-packed Sunday!

Fantasy Rest-of-Season Predictions and Stats To Know

1. With plus matchups in Weeks 16-17 (CHI/PHI), Kyler Murray will outscore Tua Tagovailoa when it matters most.

2. James Conner‘s least productive two-week stretch of the season has yet to occur.

3. Trey McBride is a top-six tight end for the remainder of the season … and for the entirety of 2024.

4. Bijan Robinson managers will forget the early season nonsense as he leads them through the playoffs.

5. Drake London will have a monster game late in the season, just enough to fuel optimism for 2024.

6. Kyle Pitts will be undervalued in draft rooms this summer.

7. The idea that you were mad about Lamar Jackson‘s production will seem silly by the season’s end.

8. Gus Edwards was a big reason your team made the playoffs, and he’ll be a reason you get bounced.

9. Odell Beckham will be Baltimore’s top fantasy WR down the stretch, and Zay Flowers will be a bargain in August.

10. Teams that come up short in the fantasy playoffs will regret not adding Isaiah Likely when they had the chance.

11. Josh Allen has a chance to be fantasy’s top-scoring player with Buffalo in desperation mode.

12. James Cook‘s third season won’t be too different from his brother Dalvin’s third season: ~1,600 yards and 13 TDs.

13. Gabe Davis will have a spike game deep into the fantasy playoffs — and it won’t help anyone.

14. Dalton Kincaid‘s name will be a common one on 2023 fantasy champions.

15. Chuba Hubbard‘s volume will tempt you to make a mistake and trust him in an important spot.

16. Your ability to distance yourself from early-season Adam Thielen will allow you to make good lineup decisions late.

17. Justin Fields will be a fantasy league-winner … in 12 months for a different organization.

18. Per the Week 14 Cheat Sheet, DJ Moore‘s 17-game pace in his past four full games of Justin Fields is 145 catches, 2,427 yards, and 21 TDs.

19. Cole Kmet has two games with over 55 yards this season, five finishes as TE24 or worse — he’s TE6 on a per-game basis

20. It’s been 362 days since Joe Mixon has had a 25-yard rush.

21. Ja’Marr Chase has yet to post consecutive top-25 finishes at the position this season.

22. Tee Higgins had an 8.1% target share last week. For his career, when playing 65% of the snaps and seeing no more than eight targets, he averages just 8.6 half-PPR PPG. Chris Godwin is averaging 8.7 PPG this season.

23. Jerome Ford is averaging just 10.4% fewer points per touch this season than Nick Chubb did in 2022.

24. After a two-year run where he scored once every 13.9 targets, Amari Cooper has scored twice on 91 targets this season.

25. There are better tight ends on your waiver wire than David Njoku (4.4 yards per target over his past three games).

26. Dak Prescott has averaged 345 passing yards and three passing TDs in his past three home games. The next four top options in the MVP market have a total of two games hitting those thresholds this season.

27. Tony Pollard will reward you when it matters most: 15+ yard carry, 10+ yard catch, and a rush TD in three straight games.

28. Brandin Cooks is unstable — 2.6 fantasy points per target over the past two months (2021 Cooper Kupp: 1.9).

29. Jake Ferguson has a shot to lead the TE position in fantasy points over the final month of the season.

30. Russell Wilson isn’t your answer at QB: 9.9 PPG as a runner in his past two games (2.3 PPG prior), under 200 pass yards without multiple passing TDs in four of his past seven games.

31. Javonte Williams has averaged over 4.0 YPC twice this season and plays two top-six YPC defenses in Weeks 16-17.

32. Courtland Sutton hasn’t finished a week as a top-40 receiver when not scoring a TD this season. His remaining opponents have all seen a below-league-average percentage of TDs allowed to be scored through the air.

MORE: Fantasy News Tracker

33. We will get “good” Jared Goff when it matters most, but not enough fantasy managers will trust him in their postseason.

34. If 2023 David Montgomery is 2022 Jamaal Williams, be careful; Williams ran for 81 yards and zero TDs from Weeks 14-16 last season before a fantasy championship performance in Week 17 if you had the gull to play him (157 yards and a TD).

35. Sam LaPorta has 47 more receiving yards in 12 games than his alma mater’s top two receiving options totaled in their 12 games.

36. Green Bay finishes the fantasy season with three of four on the road — Jordan Love‘s yards per completion is 9.6% better on the road, and his TD rate jumps by 74% this season.

37. Christian Watson‘s career (born in May, second-round pick): 1,124 total yards and 14 TDs. Jordy Nelson’s first viable season (born in May, second-round pick): 1,263 total yards and 15 TDs.

38. Deebo Samuel averaged a touchdown once every 9.7 touches and 13.0 yards per touch in 2021. This season, Jayden Reed is at 7.8 and 12.6 respectively.

39. C.J. Stroud might be a trap — remove the TB game, and he has a 4% TD rate over the past two months. He’s without Tank Dell and gets the Browns and Jets in two of his next three games.

40. Something has to give — either Nico Collins is a superstar or is overachieving. He ranks third in yards per route run but 117th in route win rate.

41. Noah Brown is risky — under 2.5 targets per game for his career. Tank Dell “excelled” in this spot and still had under 60 receiving yards in the majority of his games.

42. If you extend Zack Moss‘ numbers for games in which he had 10+ carries for an entire season, he’d rush for 1,315 yards and 10 scores.

43. Michael Pittman is great, but the high targets are a requirement for him to matter. He has 55 more targets than Brandon Aiyuk — and 48 fewer receiving yards.

44. Trevor Lawrence has finished as a top-six QB in all three games since Zay Jones returned — he gets the pass funnel Bucs in Week 16 and the Panthers in Week 17.

45. Travis Etienne‘s strong season will come to an underwhelming finish, eliminating the teams that he elevated to the playoffs in the first place.

46. Calvin Ridley‘s splits with Zay Jones on the field are strong, and prior to injury, Christian Kirk saw 21.8% of the targets in those contests.

47. Evan Engram has one touchdown this season. The other 25 players with over 85 targets this season have an average of 5.5.

48. At his current pace, it would take Patrick Mahomes 21 games to reach his passing yardage total from last season and 23 to reach his passing touchdown total.

49. Prior to lighting the fantasy world on fire late last season, Jerick McKinnon had 47 touches. Isiah Pacheco is sitting out this week — Clyde Edwards-Helaire and his 47 touches step into the feature role.

50. By the time your fantasy finals are played, Rashee Rice will be a lineup lock that you’re not considering benching.

51. Fatigue warning on Josh Jacobs: 3.2 YPC with no runs over 12 yards over the final three weeks of his breakout 2022, and his YPC is 28.6% lower this season than last as it is.

52. Rostering Davante Adams will end up rewarding you despite the rocky midseason: 33+ yard catch in three straight (zero such games prior).

53. Jakobi Meyers, in a mess of a season under center in Vegas, is one score away from doubling his career scrimmage touchdown mark. I love Jakobi Meyers.

54. Since the beginning of November, Austin Ekeler is averaging 11.1 half-PPR PPG — exactly what Cordarelle Patterson finished last season averaging.

55. Joshua Kelley might get more work? The Chargers play nothing but bottom-10 YPC defenses for the rest of this season.

56. Josh Palmer‘s last four healthy games: 7.3 targets and 84.0 receiving yards.

57. In the five wins in which he has played, Kyren Williams is averaging 131 yards and 1.6 touchdowns. After this week, the Rams close the fantasy season with WAS, NO, and NYG.

58. Through 12 career games, Puka Nacua has 131.4 fantasy points in standard-scoring leagues (non-PPR). Julio Jones had 132.4 in his first 12 career games.

59. Cooper Kupp had 266 yards in his first two games back and has 166 in the six games since, BUT he does get two bottom-11 defenses in YPA during the final three weeks of the fantasy season.

60. Tua Tagovailoa has fewer finishes inside fantasy’s top 10 at the position than current Vikings QB Josh Dobbs and the same number as the man he replaced in Kirk Cousins.

61. De’Von Achane will have a dud game at the worst time and eliminate the fantasy teams that he carried in the middle of the season.

62. Jaylen Waddle averaged 38.9% fewer yards per target this season when playing outside of the division — he gets two of the top six per pass defenses in Weeks 16-17, neither of whom play in the AFC East.

63. In Week 14 last season, Justin Jefferson had 158 more receiving yards than any other Vikings WR. If he does that this week, he’ll be Minnesota’s leading WR by 43 for this season despite not having played a game in two months.

64. He’s a nice dynasty buy, but Jordan Addison shouldn’t be on your Flex radar for the remainder of the season.

65. New England running backs have a 28.2% target share since their Week 11 bye, and Ezekiel Elliott is their lead back right now.

66. Demario Douglas will outproduce some big names in PPR leagues over the final month, but not enough fantasy managers will play him.

67. It’s been 1,079 days and 657 carries since the last time Alvin Kamara had a carry of more than 30 yards.

68. Chris Olave has seven games north of 85 receiving yards on an offense that ranks no better than 18th in bad throw rate, yards per attempt, and passer rating.

69. Taysom Hill has more rushing touchdowns over the past two months than Bijan Robinson has this season.

70. Teams with Saquon Barkley that qualified for the playoffs won’t be hanging championship banners this season.

71. Breece Hall has yet to crack 56 rushing yards in a loss this season.

72. Garrett Wilson will have one big game late that inflates his ADP in 2024 to match where it was entering this season.

73. Tyler Conklin has six games with at least four catches this season — George Kittle has five.

74. Can’t stop, won’t stop Jalen Hurts … this season. If the “Brotherly Shove” gets outlawed, I won’t be drafting Hurts at ADP next season.

75. D’Andre Swift has a 20+ yard catch in four of Philadelphia’s past five wins — they’ll be heavily favored in every game after this week.

MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings

76. Is DeVonta Smith a league-winner? Weeks 16-17 against bottom 11 defenses in pressure rate and YPA, Smith had three straight 15+ point games to end last fantasy season and has a 29.7% target share over his past three games.

77. Najee Harris has a 20+ yard carry in six of 13 games this season after doing it in six of 34 games through two seasons.

78. Jaylen Warren hasn’t scored or had a 20-yard play in the three games since the Matt Canada firing.

79. Pat Freiermuth isn’t a top-12 fantasy tight end the rest of the way — he’s a blobber.

80. Brock Purdy has as many games this regular season as Patrick Mahomes has since the beginning of last season with 3+ TD passes and zero INTs (four).

81. Deebo Samuel has scored on 3.8% of his career targets. For reference, Tyler Boyd’s career rate is 4.2%. Deebo is on thin ice weekly if the rushing doesn’t pay off.

82. Be careful on George Kittle as a fantasy option as we get late into the season. Including the playoffs, he was held under 40 yards in four of five games to end last season and in five of six the year prior.

83. Since the bye, Geno Smith‘s average positional finish when playing the NFC East is QB3 and QB21 when playing someone else. He gets the Eagles next week.

84. Tyler Lockett has cleared 55 yards just four times this season and has come in under that number in six of his past eight regular-season games played after Christmas.

85. Rachaad White has six straight games with a TD or 100+ total yards — he’s pacing for 1,458 yards and continues to be a great draft-day value. Why would it stop now?

86. Darnell Mooney and Dontayvion Wicks are on the list of receivers with a 55+ yard game more recently than Chris Godwin. So is Michael Wilson, and he hasn’t played in nearly a month.

87. Since 2021, Mike Evans‘ three post-Thanksgiving Panther games: 23-458-6 (11 games vs. rest of NFL post-Thanksgiving: 45-573-4).

88. Derrick Henry scored multiple times in consecutive games in 2021 and then didn’t score in the next two games. He did it in 2022 and had a TD in his next four games. He has rushed for multiple scores in two straight entering Week 14…

89. Tyjae Spears will prove the importance of roster depth with a strong finish to his rookie season.

90. DeAndre Hopkins has one more big game in him this season — do you have the cojones to play him for it?

91. Sam Howell has been great this season, but he plays two of the top three defenses in terms of yards per pass allowed in Weeks 16-17.

92. Brian Robinson isn’t a lock to be ranked as a starter moving forward and savvy fantasy managers will consider other options.

93. The recent production of Curtis Samuel will cause some managers to make the mistake of Flexing him during the fantasy postseason.

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

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