The time has come. Here’s a final look at our predictions and picks for Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Super Bowl 57 Predictions and Picks
Just like during the NFL regular season, the postseason features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, especially for the Super Bowl, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.
What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.
With that in mind, here are our final assessments of how this Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl might play out.
Quarterback Matchup
One of the best pure passers in the game versus one of the best dual-threat QBs in the game. As an added bonus, Patrick Mahomes is an above-average rusher, while Jalen Hurts has continued improving as a pocket passer.
It could be argued that we haven’t witnessed two “great” 20-something quarterbacks facing off in the Super Bowl since Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger 12 years ago. That Packers-Steelers matchup featured five TD passes and a cool 567 passing yards on 79 throws.
I bring up that game also because that season, Pittsburgh had yielded the fewer points, while Green Bay had yielded the second fewest. The Packers’ defense was second in the league with 24 interceptions, while the Steelers were close behind with 21. Pittsburgh was first with 48 sacks, while Green Bay was right behind with 47.
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In a battle between two superb “young” quarterbacks and two elite defenses, the QBs found a way to persevere. Of course, Green Bay got the better of Roethlisberger in the end. But both offenses went through their quarterbacks.
I expect Mahomes or Hurts to win MVP in this one because I expect both offenses to run through them. Both guys are, at their best, nearly unstoppable forces. The Eagles have a sharp defensive edge, while Mahomes and his teammates have a sharp experience edge.
It should be quite a battle, and a rare one at that: two young, dominant QBs putting on a show.
Running Backs Matchup
Miles Sanders, arguably, will be the best running back on the field. The big question I have is how much work he’ll see. Sanders has earned more than 13 carries only four times in his last 11 contests, and he’s rarely used in the passing game. For four years, he’s been one of the NFL’s most efficient runners. But will the Eagles lean on him?
Kenneth Gainwell and perhaps Boston Scott loom. Gainwell is the more dynamic of the two. If the Chiefs’ slightly above-middling run defense can’t slow the Eagles’ running game (including Hurts), then they’ll be at a significant disadvantage. But if they can — forcing Hurts to commit to the pass more than usual — then I believe KC can live with those results, versus the alternative.
For the Chiefs, rookie Isiah Pacheco continues to electrify, and his career-high five receptions on six targets in the AFC Championship Game offers a window into this team’s game plan heading into the Super Bowl. The aged Jerick McKinnon has slowed in recent weeks. This might be a Pacheco-or-bust backfield. Regardless, anything KC can garner on the ground will be gravy, and facing a subpar Eagles defense, we might see plenty of gravy.
Receivers Matchup
The Eagles’ “big three” of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert are, I believe, better than any top three receivers the Chiefs will present. Because Kansas City, in a post-Tyreek-Hill world, has leaned more heavily on Travis Kelce while increasingly spreading the ball around to 6+ wideouts on any given week.
Philly’s challenge is that they’re top-heavy. If Brown, Smith, or Goedert gets hurt, the Eagles’ odds of winning would take a huge hit. The same cannot be said of any Chief not named Mahomes or Kelce. KC’s passing attack might be the deepest in Super Bowl history, and I believe that’s by design.
What do I mean? The Chiefs probably recognized earlier this season that the Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys were NFC frontrunners to reach the Super Bowl. All three are exceptional against the pass. To beat them, KC would need to keep them off balance.
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Look at what they did in a 44-23 thrashing of the Niners in Week 7. Yes, Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling led the way, and Mecole Hardman added four catches on four targets.
But more than that, the little-used Justin Watson earned three looks (including one called back on an offensive holding) while catching a four-yard TD pass. Jody Fortson had two targets across three plays in the second quarter. Noah Gray caught a critically important 10-yard pass that set up a 25-yard score on the next play.
In his last game against the Bengals, Mahomes connected with Skyy Moore and Marcus Kemp with less than seven minutes remaining in a tie game. Yes, they were dealing with injuries. But the bigger point is that Mahomes trusts — or has been forced to learn to trust — an usually wide swath of pass catchers.
X-Factor: Patrick Mahomes
This brings us to the final point. As shared last week, I believe Mahomes — rather than Hurts — is the X-factor in this game. Hurts can generate plenty of yards on the ground, and assuredly he can do some damage through the air.
But as strange as it might sound, Mahomes’ ceiling is higher, and his floor is lower against Philly’s elite defense. If he and his offensive line can contain the Eagles’ unusually elite pass rush, then I believe he’ll have everything he needs to move the ball downfield and post 30+ points.
Thirty-plus points should be enough to prevail. I’m predicting a 31-23 Chiefs victory. Regardless, it should be a heckuva good game.