Zay Flowers Fantasy Projections: Should You Draft Flowers in Fantasy This Year?

    Zay Flowers is a talented rookie WR joining a run-friendly offense. What are his fantasy projections in 2023, and should you draft him at his ADP?

    As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Baltimore Ravens WR Zay Flowers’ fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.

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    Zay Flowers’ 2023 Fantasy Projection

    There are NFL impacts, and there are fantasy impacts. Sometimes they align, and sometimes they don’t.

    A year after longtime No. 4/5 NFL WR Demarcus Robinson was forced into Baltimore’s No. 1 WR role, the Ravens focused on rebuilding their wideout corps this offseason. Drafting Flowers in the first round was essential — not only because he was one of the most talented receivers coming out of college, but because they could not afford not to.

    Flowers should have an immediate NFL impact. Baltimore selected him to contribute right away. The recently signed Odell Beckham Jr. hasn’t played for more than 18 months. Rashod Bateman has already missed 16 games in his first two seasons. The underutilized Devin Duvernay is playing out the final year of his once-promising contract after getting drafted in the third round.

    And, of course, there’s Mark Andrews. The offensive rock. For a franchise that’s faced perhaps the league’s worst injury luck across the past two years, the 27-year-old Andrews will eat up targets and red-zone touches.

    This is where NFL impacts and fantasy impacts diverge. Because as great as Flowers is, this offense realistically can feed two receivers per game from a fantasy perspective. Andrews should be fairly locked in. Bateman, Flowers, and Beckham will push for 800+ yards each. But the odds of all three wideouts hitting over 800? Slim.

    This remains a run-friendly team. Between Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, and Gus Edwards, the Ravens can run at will on most defenses.

    For his career, Jackson has averaged about 27 throws for 200 yards per game. His passing numbers actually peaked four years ago. And that season, no wideout had more than 600 receiving yards.

    If we take a leap of faith, we might envision Jackson throwing more than ever before while Flowers emerges as the alpha receiver in a crowded corps. It could happen.

    However, the more likely scenario finds Flowers easing into a low-to-mid-volume role, culminating in a roughly 55-750-2 receiving line. Great for a rookie in a run-friendly offense that needs more punch through the air. But not great for fantasy managers hoping to strike gold.

    Should You Draft Zay Flowers This Year?

    Underdog Fantasy currently lists Flowers with an ADP of WR41. Our PFN Consensus Rankings have him around the same spot. For context, last year’s WR40 (Christian Watson) had a 41-611-7 receiving line. While perhaps a little low on catches and a bit too ambitious on touchdowns, that’s a solid projection for Flowers.

    It should be noted that Baltimore hasn’t had a top-20 fantasy WR since 2014. The last time one of their WRs cracked the top 14 was in 2007. And the top 12? I have no idea, but based on my research so far, it was more than 20 years ago.

    As highlighted above, this is not a pass-friendly offense. There’s virtually no monster ceiling for Flowers, even if Beckham or Bateman misses significant time. So while Flowers has a decent shot at outperforming his ADP, this is not the same as investing in the Bills’ similarly priced Gabe Davis.

    If you want a solid floor and top 34-38 ceiling, then Flowers is an intriguing pick at his current ADP. But if you want more boom/bust pop, then look elsewhere.

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