Coming off an injury-plagued campaign, what is the fantasy football prospect for Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor? Can the talented bell cow bounce back this season?
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Jonathan Taylor’s 2022 Season
How bad was Taylor last year? Actually, not bad at all. By most metrics, he was one of the best fantasy running backs when active.
What?! How can that be? Well, it’s all about perspective. As a near-universal No. 1 fantasy draft pick last summer, Taylor was supposed to anchor championship-caliber fantasy teams. In the 10 games where he played more than two snaps, he averaged 14.1 points, or 36% less than his per-game average the year before.
For context, Alvin Kamara also netted 14.1 per contest, while Dalvin Cook averaged 14.0. Taylor hit double-digit points seven times, but after collecting 19+ points on eight occasions in 2021, he accomplished this feat only twice in 2022. Most notably for managers, Taylor issued a disastrous 2.3 points on one touch in Week 15 — commonly the first round of the fantasy playoffs.
It wasn’t his fault. A sprained ankle knocked Taylor out in the first quarter, and he never returned that season. When that happens to a preseason elite RB, it’s hard to win a fantasy title.
Many managers have long memories. It still stings. But giving up on the 24-year-old Taylor is like abandoning a favorite hobby after skinning your knee. Simply put, get over it.
Despite a down season, Taylor averaged a solid 4.5 yards per carry while reeling in 28 catches. Among running backs with 50+ carries, he led the league with one broken tackle per 8.0 attempts. He also delivered an elite broken-tackle rate on receptions (one per 9.3 attempts).
Taylor achieved this despite operating in one of the league’s worst offenses. Why did the Colts have the league’s third-lowest percentage of rushing first downs? Because defenses consistently dared Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger, and Nick Foles to sustain drives through the air. Frequently, they failed, resulting in the fourth-worst third-down conversion rate.
Defenses understood this was largely a Taylor-or-bust offense. And while this team yielded the ninth-fewest points the year before, they gave up the fifth-most last season.
All too often, Indianapolis played catch-up. For example, 34% of Taylor’s carries last year occurred in the first quarter. The year before, his usage was highly balanced, with 27% of his carries taking place in the opening frame.
Essentially, if Taylor couldn’t make fantasy noise in those first 15 minutes, he was at risk of getting phased out — or at least phased down to the point of TD-or-bust fantasy value.
Jonathan Taylor’s 2023 Revival
Taylor remains a great young running back. His problem is that he played last year on a turnover-friendly team that rarely won games while regressing dramatically on both sides of the ball.
His fantasy outlook in 2023 hinges largely on the Colts’ ability to turn around their passing game and defense. In fairness to Indianapolis’ defense, it’s hard when your offense leads the league in interceptions and is second in sacks (and first in yards lost on sacks). Field position was a major issue, and there was only so much Indy’s previously “good” defense could do.
Indy loaded up this offseason on both sides of the ball, with notable additions that included boom-bust QB Anthony Richardson, WR Josh Downs, and DL Julius Brents. Free agent signing WR Isaiah McKenzie gives them needed depth at a position where they’ve had no depth for years.
This has the makings of an improved team. Will Indianapolis win the AFC South? Probably not. They might be fortunate to finish second ahead of the Titans, but they’ll be more competitive.
Richardson might hold the key. If he can develop into at least a capable passer, then this offense should be far more dynamic than it was a year ago.
Speaking of which, we should expect Taylor’s receptions to spike. As a fantastic dump-off option for Richardson, Taylor’s usage in the passing game should continue to climb. As a rookie, he averaged 2.6 targets per game. That climbed to 3.0 in 2021 and 3.6 in 2022. A 4.0 clip is entirely doable this season, putting him on track for another 300+ touch campaign.
At that point, it all comes down to touchdowns. In 2021, Taylor scored 20 times but just four times in 2022. You don’t need to be a brainiac to appreciate the difference. Yes, injuries capped his ceiling, but to be one of the best, Taylor needs more scoring opportunities.
While a return to 2021 form might be unrealistic, it should be noted that Taylor was on a 17-game pace last year for 1,553 total yards. Assuming that’s his baseline entering 2023, I would bank on at least 100+ total yards per contest and 9+ scores. In other words, Taylor should return to elite or near-elite form.