Quarterback breakouts are the new hot topic of college football. From scouts to analysts to fans in stadiums and armchairs across the globe, everyone wants to know who will be the quarterback prospect to emerge from seemingly nowhere to ascend in the 2022Â NFL Draft class.
Even at this early stage in the 2022 NFL Draft cycle, it’s apparent that Spencer Rattler and Sam Howell are the early front-runners for QB1. A myriad of passers, including Malik Willis, are hot on their heels. But who will emerge from nowhere as a breakout prospect this college football season? Who will be the next Zach Wilson, Joe Burrow, or Kyler Murray?
Breakout quarterbacks prospects in the 2021 college football season
130 Day 1 starting quarterbacks are in FBS football alone (humble brag — we have them conveniently sorted in a college football QB power rankings). That’s not to mention the litany of exceptional passers extending across the FCS landscape and beyond. Some of those have already begun to rise to the front of the 2022 NFL Draft class. As a result, describing them as breakout prospects is equivalent to a breach of trade descriptions.
For that reason, you won’t find Carson Strong, Phil Jurkovec, Matt Corral, JT Daniels, Dillon Gabriel, or Jayden Daniels on this list. Although Kaleb Eleby is barely a household name, he’s already been highly touted as a potential 2022 NFL Draft prospect in scouting circles. Dustin Crum is another small-school standout that is attracting attention.
Instead, we’ve highlighted some players who have received little to no NFL Draft buzz. However, they could — and should — be in the conversation with an impressive campaign this college football season.
Connor Bazelak, Missouri
As one Missouri quarterback falls from his starting position in the NFL, another is set to break out as a quarterback prospect in the 2022 NFL Draft. Connor Bazelak wasn’t the immediate successor to Drew Lock for the Tigers, but having impressed coming off the bench against Georgia in 2019, he secured the starting job for the 2020 season.
Although Missouri’s 5-5 record and 78th-ranked scoring offense may not attest to it, Bazelak had a solid first season as the full-time starter. In 10 games, he threw for 2,366 yards completing an impressive 67.3% of his passes while averaging 7.3 yards per attempt.
The completion percentage is a significant factor in analyzing Bazelak as a potential quarterback breakout this fall. In his listed 2019 action, he completed over 70% of his throws. The Missouri quarterback is one of the most accurate passers in college football this fall. Furthermore, those numbers don’t tell the whole story of the ineptitude of his receivers last season.
Accuracy and anticipation are essential when assessing quarterback prospects, and Bazelak is exceptional in both regards. He’s also shown that he can move the ball to all areas of the field when required. The Missouri QB has prototypical NFL size at 6’3″ and 212 pounds. If the offense allows him to find the end zone more than the 7 touchdowns he tallied last season, a breakout is imminent for the redshirt sophomore.
Layne Hatcher, Arkansas State
While Sun Belt scouts focus on Louisiana’s Levi Lewis and Coastal Carolina’s Grayson McCall, strong-armed Arkansas State quarterback Layne Hatcher has genuine breakout potential in this 2022 NFL Draft class. Trapped in a two-quarterback system last season, he should be the Red Wolves’ de facto QB1 this fall. Get ready.
An insanely talented high school passer, Hatcher put up record-setting numbers at Pulaski Academy. His 15,483 passing yards and 185 touchdowns are Arkansas high school records, and he compiled the gaudy stat line while completing 68% of his passes.
Hatcher’s high school success earned him an offer from Alabama, but after redshirting his freshman season with the Crimson Tide, he transferred to Arkansas State. In two seasons with the Red Wolves, he threw for over 5,000 yards despite the rotational role last fall. Meanwhile, he has an impressive 46:12 touchdown-to-interception ratio that includes just 2 interceptions in 2020.
At 5’11”, Hatcher falls a long way short of the requisite NFL height. However, he’s strongly built at 211 pounds and has alluring attributes as a passer. He excels on play-action passes but has the arm strength and accuracy that scouts look for in NFL quarterbacks.
Jarrett Guarantano, Washington State
Being a part of the Tennessee offense in recent years has been bad for NFL Draft business. Wide receiver Josh Palmer was a relatively unknown quantity before the Senior Bowl. However, since then, he’s looked like one of the best rookie receivers out there through two weeks of NFL preseason. Running back Eric Gray should parlay his transfer to Oklahoma into being one of the best at his position this fall.
Then there’s Jarrett Guarantano. The former four-star high school quarterback has endured a rollercoaster of a career for the Vols. After redshirting in 2018, he has tallied 6,174 passing yards at 7.6 yards per attempt, completing 61.1% of his passes. During his Vols career, he compiled a 38:17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. It’s worth noting he threw just 3 interceptions in the only year where he started every game.
Having graduated from Tennessee, Guarantano transferred to Washington State and a system suited to his skill set. Although the Cougars no longer run Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense, Nick Rolovich’s “run and shoot” system will still allow Guarantano to air it out with his big arm. Furthermore, the former dual-threat high school QB can contribute in the ground game too.
While Washington State has the highly-rated but ultimately troubled Jayden de Laura as the incumbent, Guarantano has an excellent chance to be the starter this fall. With ample protection from Abraham Lucas, he has potential as a breakout quarterback.
Hank Bachmeier, Boise State
Despite Kellen Moore’s collegiate success, Boise State hasn’t had a quarterback drafted to the NFL since Jim McMillan in 1975. Moreover, the program has only sent two passers to the NFL via its annual selection event. However, while the eyes of NFL scouts are on the Mountain West for Nevada QB Carson Strong, they’d be wise to direct them towards Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho.
Hank Bachmeier playing for Boise State signifies a significant coup for the Broncos. A four-star recruit who received Pac-12 and SEC attention in the 2019 recruiting class, he was a record-setter at Murrieta Valley High School. Yet, he chose to come to Boise, where he believed they could build a national championship contender.
Given the Power Five-heavy nature of the College Football Playoffs, the national title aspirations are lofty, but Bachmeier was impressive as a freshman in 2019. He also flashed through injury in the disrupted college football season. Through 13 games, he has completed 62% of his passes while amassing 3,029 passing yards at 8.1 yards per attempt.
What makes Bachmeier a breakout quarterback contender this fall? He’s tough, intelligent, and can make throws with good vision and decent arm strength. Additionally, he’s adept at extending plays outside of the pocket. His health, and the departure of head coach Bryan Harsin, could impact his season. However, when he’s on the field, there are few more instrumental quarterbacks in college football.
Let’s not ignore the FCS
The NFL doesn’t care where you come from as long as you can play ball. Here is an underdog to keep your eye on.
Eric Barriere, Eastern Washington
Trey Lance, Carson Wentz, and Joe Flacco. What do they have in common? They’re all first-round NFL Draft quarterbacks that came from the FCS level. In addition to them, NFL rosters are littered with passers who played outside of the FBS level. While there may not be a first-round pick amongst the ranks this fall, Eastern Washington’s Eric Barriere has the potential to be a breakout quarterback prospect.
Statistically, Barriere is up there with anyone on this list and, frankly, any NFL Draft quarterback prospect out there. He’s one of the more experienced passers as a redshirt senior, putting up 8,739 yards at 8.2 yards per attempt with a 75:21 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
In addition to his strong arm, impressive decision-making, and pocket awareness, Barriere boasts another quarterback quality that is becoming the norm in the NFL. The Eastern Washington wonder is a true dual-threat quarterback. During his time with the Eagles, he has amassed 1,363 yards on 287 carries with 18 rushing touchdowns.
While it’s important to point out that I’m not suggesting Barriere makes the leap into the first-round or that he’s the second coming of Lance or Wentz, a breakout for the quarterback prospect would represent a potential Day 3 selection next April as the top FCS passer in the class.
