Fantasy football managers only have a couple of weeks left to make the playoffs in their leagues. You will be surprised at the number of fantasy managers that will leave things to chance this time of year, other than making additions through the waiver wire. However, there are a number of things fantasy managers can do to help themselves, and their rosters, make their playoffs.
In this fantasy playoffs guide, we’ll look at some of the extra actions fantasy managers can take from a strategy perspective that will help steal a win or two during the most important time of the season. You might not have the best roster, but if you outwork your opponents, you can give yourself every opportunity to make the playoffs.
When Do the Fantasy Playoffs Start?
The fantasy playoffs traditionally kick off in Week 15 and will run through the next three weeks, with championships being decided in Week 17. Many leagues decide to do different formats though for their fantasy playoffs, so make sure to check your league settings so that you’re aware of your specific setup.
How To Prepare for the Fantasy Playoffs
There are pivotal moves that you can make to ensure your roster is best set up for success come the stretch run of the season. Let’s run through them.
Assess Your Upcoming Schedule
While this may not hold significant meaning in the initial weeks of the season, it becomes crucial once you’ve completed 10 weeks or more and amassed meaningful statistics. By then, you should have a clearer understanding of which teams in your league are formidable and which ones are not.
My preferred approach, starting from Week 9 onward, involves creating a four-box grid for each team. Within these boxes, I identify and document the following key points:
- Strengths
- Weaknesses
- Players’ bye weeks
- Opportunities to gain an advantage
This is one example from one of my leagues, where the highlighted team is a strong contender for the No. 1 seed in the playoffs:
Strengths
- QB (Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield)
- Tight end (Evan Engram, Luke Musgrave, George Kittle, Jonnu Smith)
- Defense (Buffalo Bills)
Weaknesses
- WR (Adam Thielen, Curtis Samuel, Quentin Johnston, DJ Chark, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed)
- RB (Latavius Murray, Miles Sanders, Ezekiel Elliott, Rhamondre Stevenson)
Byes
- Murray (13)
- Samuel (14)
- Daniel Carlson (13)
- Bills DST (13)
Where can I gain an advantage?
- Stop them from gaining a viable RB as a streaming option (keep picking up the best RB streamer).
- Make sure a major RB streamer doesn’t come available for them to pick up.
- Make sure that if a significant WR comes up on waivers, I get there first.
I can determine the strategies leading to their victories and identify the vulnerabilities that could potentially contribute to their losses. Currently, in the league standings, they boast a 9-2 record and are on pace to secure the top seed.
Armed with this insight, I can pinpoint areas to exploit when facing this team, potentially disrupting their playoff performance. By mapping out teams this way for the rest of the regular season, fantasy managers can devise effective strategies for securing victories and influencing their own trajectory.
However, fewer than 5% of players undertake this strategic approach. For those seeking an edge in competitive leagues, this initial step is pivotal for reshaping a fantasy manager’s season — especially if they’re hovering around .500.
Examine the NFL Schedule From Weeks 12 to 17, With a Particular Focus on Weeks 14 to 17
Towards the season’s conclusion, there’s considerable discussion about the Strength of Schedule (SoS) and its significance. What does this metric entail?
Understanding the strength of the schedule is crucial because, during the fantasy football playoffs (Weeks 14-16/17), having players with favorable schedules can provide a substantial advantage and a prime opportunity to secure high-scoring weeks.
Unlike the draft, where team strengths are uncertain, assessing SoS becomes relevant now that there’s enough data to analyze defensive strengths and weaknesses by position for fantasy purposes.
Last season, James Conner emerged as a buy-low candidate due to an advantageous schedule. Playing against teams with weak run defenses in Weeks 12-17, he scored 90.5 fantasy points, ranking as the RB5 overall during that period. In contrast, Weeks 1-11 saw him score 86.7 fantasy points, placing him as the RB31 (he missed three games due to injury).
The schedule played a pivotal role in his performance. Acquiring Conner before Week 12 likely contributed to winning a championship or securing a championship berth. Strength of schedule evaluates and ranks teams based on their propensity to cede points to each position.
MORE: Fantasy Football Rankings 2023 — Playoff Strength of Schedule
While it’s not the sole determinant, this metric informs decisions about waiver claims or trades. Exceptional players can perform well against any opponent, just as lesser players may struggle regardless of their matchups. As illustrated by Conner, a player’s strength of schedule can elevate them to fantasy stardom for specific weeks.
This metric becomes a crucial factor as a tiebreaker when deciding between players of similar skill sets in lineup decisions. For instance, in a PPR League, a start/sit decision between Demario Douglas and Wan’Dale Robinson might hinge on the former facing the ninth-worst defense against wide receivers while the latter contends with the second-best defense in the same category.
Utilize Season Averages To Project Scores Instead of Relying on App-Generated Projections
While fantasy managers often lean on these app projections due to their simplicity, they are frequently inaccurate, as they are, by nature, speculative. A quick and effective method to assess your standing is to calculate the projected averages for all your players based on their season performances.
For instance, if Mike Evans has accumulated 144 points over 10 games, his average points per game (PPG) is 14.4. Despite the app projecting him for 11-12 fantasy points, using your players’ actual PPG provides a clearer perspective on your team’s potential.
This approach isn’t foolproof, as there’s still room for variability. Nevertheless, it’s likely more precise than the app projections, as you’re relying on tangible metrics and actual numbers rather than hypothetical estimates.
When you and your opponent’s projected scores in a given matchup are close, but a review of each player’s season PPG indicates a potential loss of 10-12 points if the averages hold, consider taking calculated risks. Conversely, if your player averages predict a comfortable 10-12-point lead, you might adopt a more conservative strategy.
This method provides fantasy managers with a systematic and reasoned approach, and it’s straightforward to implement.
The formula is simply total points divided by the number of games played. This formula is particularly advantageous at this stage of the season, where the data sample is robust enough to minimize variance.
Strategize for Bye Weeks by Securing Replacements in Advance
We’ve all been there — setting our lineups and realizing we have three or four players on bye. By that point, the waiver wire has already been picked clean for the week, leaving you with the dilemma of accepting the loss or hastily picking up bench players to fill your starting lineup, often sacrificing valuable assets in the process. This situation is a yearly occurrence for many.
The key to avoiding this scenario? Preparation. Knowing your team’s bye weeks and proactively stashing players a week or two in advance is a crucial strategy. This not only helps fantasy managers sidestep the last-minute scramble described above but also prevents overspending of your free agent acquisition budget (FAAB), if applicable in your league.
MORE: NFL Bye Weeks Schedule 2023
A strong strategic move mentioned by Kyle Yates and others on the PFN Fantasy Podcast: pick up players on bye one week before your own players are on bye. Few managers will add a player just to bench them during a bye week unless the player offers significant upside.
This lack of competition allows you to prioritize these players lower in your claims or bid fewer FAAB dollars while ensuring you have reliable substitutes in place. Remaining aware of your team’s needs is vital. For instance, if your team requires wide receivers and running backs in Week 13 to cover byes, plan ahead by acquiring these players a week or two in advance.
Fantasy managers can also trade players who have not had their bye for players who have. If you can agree to a trade with another fantasy manager so they take a player off your hands who has not had his bye yet for someone who has already gotten their bye out of the way, you essentially can gain a week of additional production.
Successful fantasy football rosters require both planning and a bit of luck. Minimizing the number of players on bye weeks simplifies fantasy managers’ need to use the waiver wire. Stay ahead of the curve by securing your bye week covers in advance and identifying free agents with favorable matchups for the weeks you need them. Act sooner rather than later to gain a strategic advantage in your quest for a fantasy football playoff berth.
Streamline Your Roster by Shedding Underperforming Players
Fantasy managers often hold onto players, hoping they’ll eventually deliver on their draft position or potential. The truth is that average draft position (ADP) and draft capital lose relevance once the draft concludes. Players should be evaluated based on their actual performance rather than where they were drafted.
Trades based on a player’s draft round are misguided; the focus should be on current performance. The sentiment of “I won’t trade a second-round pick for an undrafted player” holds little merit. The key is to assess players based on their current contributions rather than past draft positions.
The tendency to cling to unproductive players stems from hope rather than a strategic plan. While it’s acceptable to keep high-upside players on the bench, it’s crucial to understand their potential contributions. Merely hoping for a turnaround without a logical plan may not pay off in the long run.
As the season progresses and key players return from bye weeks, fantasy rosters often carry unnecessary players. Carrying a backup tight end or quarterback after a certain point becomes redundant. The drop-off in performance beyond the top few players in these positions is minimal, making backups less valuable.
A fluid approach to bench spots, with fewer unnecessary backups, allows for strategic adjustments and maximizes opportunities to capitalize on taking upside shots. Or, fantasy managers could also consider using bench spots strategically against rivals by stashing players that may hinder their opponents’ success.
This tactic can serve as good insurance and potentially tip the scales in crucial matchups. Additionally, during bye weeks, exploit opportunities to prevent rivals from acquiring needed pieces.
Ultimately, adopting a flexible approach to roster management based on current performance and strategic gameplay enhances a fantasy manager’s chances of securing a playoff berth.
Acquire Backups for Your Running Backs
While it might seem counterintuitive to early-season advice, the importance of running backs in fantasy football cannot be overstated. Genuine league-winning running backs are scarce, making it crucial to prepare for the possibility of an elite back getting injured.
Drafting a handcuff at the beginning of the season may not make much sense, but as weeks progress, running backs endure substantial punishment and become more prone to injuries.
Having a player like Rico Dowdle on your bench means that if Tony Pollard goes down, you immediately have a strong RB2 option every week during Pollard’s hypothetical absence. Jerick McKinnon became a late-season hero for fantasy managers in 2022 when he filled in for the injured Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Think of holding running back handcuffs as having a lottery ticket. It requires a combination of skill, luck, and patience. However, if a star player goes down, and you hold the winning ticket for his replacement, you stand a good chance of performing well in the playoffs.
Recent examples like Damien Williams, C.J. Anderson, Raheem Mostert, Mike Davis, and McKinnon highlight the potential impact of these lottery-ticket players who likely weren’t on many rosters after the draft. So, why not grab a couple of lottery tickets for your bench?
Embrace Lineup Risks, Especially if You’re Hovering .500
Rather than relying solely on app projections, take calculated risks for higher upside. If a player like Darius Slayton has a better matchup, less competition for targets, and is likely to be more involved than the app-projected Tutu Atwell, why not start Slayton?
Fantasy managers shouldn’t play it safe with lineups when playoff berths are at stake. If the strategy has led to a .500 record, it’s time to change things up. Opt for players who could score big, even if they come with the risk of lower points.
Starting a consistent seven- to 11-point player in a statistical tie won’t give you the edge to break it; instead, take a chance on a player who might score three but could also deliver a game-changing 20 points.
Evaluate recent performance, looking at targets rather than just receptions in the last four games. If a player has consistently seen targets, even if the catches haven’t followed, it suggests the quarterback is looking their way. Fantasy managers should be willing to take calculated risks to gain a competitive edge.
Playing it safe prepares you for defeat. Losing by a small margin because you left a 22-point wide receiver on your bench is avoidable with a more strategic approach. Learn from decisions, move on, and don’t lose due to apathy or laziness.
Employ Strategic Mind Games by Sharing Calculated Messages in Group Chats
Discussing “news” about players returning from injury or mysteriously landing on the injury report can compel fantasy managers to scramble for additional cover on the waiver wire, potentially leading them to drop valuable players in the process. This tactic can also induce last-minute lineup changes, injecting an element of doubt into the minds of your opponents.
Striking the right balance is crucial. Overuse of this strategy diminishes its effectiveness, but neglecting it leaves you vulnerable to being outmaneuvered by others who are actively engaging in such mind games.
When executed properly, this approach not only throws your rivals off their game but also establishes fantasy managers as serious and well-informed participants in their league.
MORE: FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Being the fantasy manager consistently sharing breaking news and injury updates sends a powerful message. It conveys that you are dedicated to the game and likely to be a formidable opponent. This perception can lead rival managers to second-guess their decisions, putting them in a position where they may try too hard to gain an edge.
Moreover, by establishing credibility and accurately sharing information, you gain the freedom to occasionally spin a minor development into a larger narrative.
Fantasy managers may initially react, considering your track record. And even if you occasionally get something wrong, the overall impact will likely be minimal, especially if you’ve successfully employed this strategic approach throughout the season.
Interact With the Fantasy Football Community and Follow PFN Followers
The best way to make a decision, whether that’s trade, waiver claim, or start/sit, is to have as much information as possible. The best way to get that information is to join a community of like-minded fantasy folks. So if you’re enjoying the content here on PFN Fantasy, follow the authors, and follow those in the PFN X comments and YouTube comments.
Information is power. Make sure you harness it and use it to make the right decisions. Remember, making the right decision 60% of the time in fantasy football will probably yield a playoff berth and a winning record — unless your wrong decisions were catastrophic. And leveraging ideas from others is the best way to counter catastrophic decisions.
Stay Ahead of the Curve by Following Beat Reporters and the PFN News Tracker
Being the first to access information gives you a competitive edge over your league-mates. Top-tier fantasy managers prioritize tracking beat reporters who cover their players to obtain crucial updates before league-wide notifications on platforms like NFL.com or Sleeper disseminate that information.
If monitoring multiple sources seems overwhelming, the PFN News Tracker streamlines the process, doing the heavy lifting for you.
Don’t leave anything to chance; assume that your league is or will soon be aware of player updates if you’re using popular platforms. Even a thirty-minute advantage can mean snagging a replacement off the free agency pool before others even catch wind of the news. This timely information could be the decisive factor between winning and losing your league.
By engaging with content on PFN Fantasy, you’re already on the path to gaining an early advantage. Take the extra step and set up alerts to stay one step ahead of your competition.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!