Travis Kelce Dynasty Profile: Fantasy Outlook, Value, Projections, and Rankings

Travis Kelce is getting up there in age. What does his future look like, and what is his value in dynasty fantasy football leagues going forward?

As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of Travis Kelce.

Travis Kelce’s Dynasty Outlook and Value

Rob Gronkowski is probably the greatest tight end of all time, but Kelce is the greatest fantasy tight end of all time. I’ve played fantasy through the eras of all-time greats like Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham, and Gronk. We have never seen sustained dominance at Kelce’s level.

After two years as a low-end TE1, Kelce fully arrived in 2016. Since then, he’s finished as a top-two tight end in every single season. That’s seven straight. Since 2017, he’s averaged at least 15.6 ppg, and when Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter, he took Kelce to another level.

Kelce’s worst season with Mahomes is better than his best season pre-Mahomes. With the now-two-time Super Bowl champion QB throwing the rock, Kelce has posted WR1 numbers in every season.

In 2022, the four-time All-Pro was arguably the most valuable asset in all of fantasy. He only averaged 18.6 ppg (I say “only” in the context of all fantasy scorers — obviously, that’s super elite for tight ends), but the real dominance came from him being 5.2 ppg ahead of the TE2, George Kittle.

Only six tight ends even got within 8.2 ppg of Kelce. It was the largest gap between the TE1 and TE2 in fantasy history.

MORE: Dynasty Rankings 2023 — Top Fantasy Options at Tight End

Kelce is clearly the overall TE1 in 2023. But in dynasty, there’s more than just the upcoming season.

Kelce will turn 34 years old this year. He’s signed through 2025, so his contract is not a concern, but the question is how much longer we can reasonably expect Kelce to be this dominant.

If you’re a contender, obviously, you don’t move Kelce. In fact, you look to acquire him. Currently, there is no greatest advantage in fantasy than having Kelce as your TE1.

But if you’re rebuilding, I worry about the idea of holding, knowing that he will be in his age-35 season when your team is potentially ready to compete.

At the same time, you can’t trade away someone like Kelce unless you are getting a king’s ransom in return. There are plenty of talented, young tight ends in the league right now. But they’re all still speculative assets. Not a single one of them is a sure thing. And not one is even remotely close to Kelce’s one-man tier.

Travis Kelce’s Fantasy Ranking

I believe guys like Kelce are the trickiest dynasty assets. The elite, old player who has shown no signs of slowing down.

Some people will likely point to Kelce’s snap share as, perhaps, evidence of an upcoming regression. From 2017-2019, he was at around 95%. Since 2020, he’s been at 84%, 83%, and most recently, 80%. Of course, we’d like Kelce out there every snap, but the dip in snap share hasn’t impacted his production.

Kelce is still running over 32 routes per game, and last season, his targets-per-route-run rate was the second-highest of his career. It doesn’t matter that he’s on the field less if he’s being used in the passing game at the same rate.

I understand the age concerns, but Kelce remains the dynasty TE1 for me. While I completely understand him being TE3 (No. 36 overall)  in our dynasty Superflex rankings, I am completely willing to go down with the ship here.

If I’m holding the bag when Kelce inevitably declines, so be it. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if that time is over three years away, making Kelce someone still worth an investment in dynasty startup drafts.

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