The books are finally, officially closed on NFL Week 12, which for the first time, actually lasted nearly a full calendar week running from Thursday to Wednesday. Week 12’s top 10 running back rankings include one of the highest recorded 8+D (8+ defenders in the box) percentages in recent history, two teams with both running backs making the list, a second-string running back making the most of an injury, and a Patriots RB that continues to impress every week.[sv slug=”mocksim”]
The context for OVM rankings
For this ranking system, we are looking at which players carry the most overall value for their offenses based on their sole, individual production. Professional football is a team sport that requires gratuitous input from many different positions. But the names on this list are the players that are creating the most offense without the influence of his teammates — true individual production.
We collect this data using the Offensive Value Metric created by The (Bx) Movement. The Offensive Value Metric (OVM) was created to provide a numerical scale to measure the individual player’s overall value to his offensive unit. A player with a higher OVM grade isn’t necessarily a higher skilled player, but they do create more offensive production for their team than a player with a lower OVM. In other words, the best OVM RBs for Week 12 may not necessarily light up the box score.
OVM collects different levels of data from sources such as NFL’s Next Gen Stats and separates out the data points that are influenced solely by an individual player. That filtered data is run through a formula to create an OVM grade reflective of the amount of value the player brings to his offensive group.
To find out more on the Offensive Value Metrics, and view the complete database, follow the link here.
Top OVM RBs from Week 12
Let’s dive into the best OVM performances for running backs in Week 12!
1) Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos
OVM 27.27 | 6.10 EFF | 75.00 8+D |
-0.82 RYOE/ATT | 25.00 ROE%
That’s right! Melvin Gordon was the “best” (most offensively valuable) running back of NFL Week 12. With the exceptionally peculiar circumstance the Broncos found themselves in, having to play Sunday’s game without a quarterback, it was safe to say the run game would be leaned on heavily. The Saints had the box stacked against Gordon on 75% of his rushing attempts, one of the highest 8+D percentages recorded in the last several years. Even so, Gordon still managed to outperform his expected yardage on 25% of his attempts.
2) Adrian Peterson, Detroit Lions
22.81 OVM | 4.08 EFF | 53.33 8+D |
-1.25 RYOE/ATT | 26.70 ROE%
Adrian Peterson looked great on Thursday night’s matchup. Running against a heavily-stacked box on nearly 64% of his snaps, he still managed to pick up 55 total yards and two scoring touchdowns. He ran like a machine against Houston’s defense in short-yardage situations — both of his scoring touchdowns were at the goal line.
3) Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns
19.62 OVM | 3.05 EFF | 50.00 8+D |
6.2 RYOE/ATT | 50.00 ROE%
Don’t let the stat line fool you; Kareem Hunt played well last week against the Jaguars defense and was one of the top RBs for Week 12. As a common theme among the top OVM running backs, Hunt was another back running against a wall of defenders. But his performance is illuminated when you compare his actual numbers against his expected output. Hunt outperformed his expected offensive production on 50% of his rush attempts. He averaged over six yards of offense per attempt above what was expected of him.
4) Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals
19.07 OVM | 3.89 EFF | 45.45 8+D |
3.5 RYOE/ATT | -0.02 ROE%
Kenyan Drake had a solid afternoon against the Patriots defense. He averaged 3.5 yards of offense above his expected yardage, which helped contribute to an impressive Sunday stat line. Drake ended the day with a total of 78 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
5) Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
17.46 OVM | 3.35 EFF | 52.63 8+D |
1.49 RYOE/ATT | 47.40 ROE%
The Cleveland Browns have both of their backs on the top 10 most valuable RBs for Week 12. Nick Chubb was lights out against the Jaguars. He rushed for a massive 144 yards — the second-highest number of rushing yards all week. Chubb had a solid efficiency rating, played well against a heavy defense, and performed above his expected showing.
6) Damien Harris, New England Patriots
16.07 OVM | 5.84 EFF | 42.86 8+D |
3.40 RYOE/ATT | 35.70 ROE%
It wouldn’t be a top 10 OVM rankings without Damien Harris. Harris has been on this list every week so far. Harris’ running back efficiency rating of 5.84 was the fifth-highest for the week as he managed to scrape together 47 total yards across just 14 attempts.
7) Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers
15.06 OVM | 4.41 EFF | 33.33 8+D |
-0.94 RYOE/ATT | 33.30 ROE%
Mike Davis was able to step up when the Panthers needed him the most with Christian McCaffrey out. Davis had a respectable day with 55 rushing yards and a well-rounded efficiency rating against a steady Vikings defense.
8) Wayne Gallman, New York Giants
13.78 OVM | 3.33 EFF | 29.17 8+D |
0.32 RYOE/ATT | 54.20 ROE%
Wayne Gallman is making sure that he is taking full advantage of the lead back position with Saquon Barkley injured. His 94 yards were the seventh-highest rushing yardage for a back in Week 12, and he lands in the top 8 OVM RBs for Week 12. His ROE percentage (which shows how often he was overperforming in Sunday’s game) was the fourth-highest among all running backs.
9) Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions
13.75 OVM | 3.42 EFF | 27.27 8+D |
-0.43 RYOE/ATT | 45.50 ROE%
Kerryon Johnson is another running back who managed more than was expected of him in Week 12. His 45.50 ROE percentage was one of the best last week. He had a good efficiency rating and rushed for nearly 50 yards against the Texans’ defense. He also brought in all four of his targets for 52 receiving yards.
10) Peyton Barber, Washington Football Team
13.11 OVM | 2.85 EFF | 27.27 8+D |
0.97 RYOE/ATT | 36.40 ROE%
Peyton Barber played well last Thursday against the Cowboys defense — well enough to be considered one of the most valuable running backs from Week 12. His 11 rushing attempts were the most touches he’s had in a game since Week 1. He put together 57 yards of offense, which was well above what was expected of him.