Entering Week 5 of the fantasy football season is when managers have to decide if they’re gonna vie for the title or not. Based on your record, you might be forced to shoot for the moon this week and opt to play riskier options over higher floor players. One of those higher floor players, at least thus far in the season is Tom Brady, who has finished with at least 20 fantasy points in three out of four weeks.
However, can he break 20 points again in Week 5 on a short week? Let’s look a little deeper at Tom Brady’s fantasy outlook in this week’s matchup against the Chicago Bears.
Tom Brady’s fantasy performance so far in 2020
Before the season started, everyone was looking at Brady going to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a great thing for fantasy. He was joining stud wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on a very high powered offense led by head coach Bruce Arians. The writing was on the wall, Tom was about to ball!
Unfortunately, due to the shortened off-season schedule and lack of preseason games, Brady’s surrounding cast has had a rough time staying on the field. Evans missed Week 1 with a hamstring injury, and Godwin missed Weeks 3 and 4 with a concussion and hamstring injury, respectively. This has forced Brady to get more creative and score points in a wider variety of ways so far this year.
As I mentioned earlier, Brady has scored over 20 fantasy points in three of four weeks thus far, helping him to become the QB7 overall in fantasy. While his teammates may be watching from the sidelines, it sure doesn’t seem to be stopping Tom Terrific from getting things done. The team is 3-1 and marching forward, and Brady doesn’t seem to have missed a step.
The Buccaneers injuries are piling up
On top of the injuries to Evans and Godwin that have impacted their season thus far, Week 4 dealt another blow to the future outlook of the team when tight end O.J. Howard tore his Achilles and was placed on season-ending IR. Brady still has his old friend Rob Gronkowski, but Gronk has looked like a shell of his former self so far this year.
Last week I took a deeper look at the Buccaneers depth chart, including the running backs, in terms of fantasy outlook. They have a fair amount of depth, but the injuries are piling up just as high lately. Looking at Brady’s OVM (Offensive Value Metric) of 26.44 for the year so far, he’s been able to succeed on the field regardless of who he’s throwing to, but at some point, defenses will figure him out and father time will catch up to him.
Related | NFL Week 4 Fantasy Injury Report
Can Brady weather these storms and continue to put together solid weeks? Only time will tell, but so far this season he’s the one thing on the team that’s actually showed up ready to play each week, and that’s not saying much. If he’s going to continue to thrive in fantasy, he’s at least going to need people to throw touchdowns to, right?
Tom Brady’s fantasy outlook for Week 5 against the Bears
On the topic of injuries, the reports we already have for the game on Thursday aren’t great. Godwin will miss his third straight game and fellow WR Justin Watson has been ruled out as well. Both Evans and Scotty Miller are listed as questionable, and while they played last week, both were clearly limited by their injuries. But if anyone can get these guys ready on a short week, it’s the future Hall-of-Famer, right?
As old as Brady is, he’s the one thing on the team that’s actually showed up ready to play each week. Unfortunately, showing up and playing doesn’t always translate to fantasy success. PFN’s Ben Rolfe has listed Brady as a sell-high candidate thanks in part to his performance last week. “Brady does not look quite right and if the Buccaneers do not need him to open it up, which they may not do all that often, I expect some poor returns from Brady.”
PFN’s Phillip Caldwell went a step further and recommends sitting Tom Brady in fantasy this week thanks to the Bears being 26th in DPACS and 31st in average points allowed to quarterbacks. Brady’s got the deck stacked against him, and while it might be fun to watch him light it up in your lineup, I would have to agree that Brady’s best days may already be behind him. Brady’s fantasy outlook looks pretty bleak this week, so unless you have no choice, it might be best to leave him on your bench this time around.
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Andrew Hall is a writer for PFN covering the NFL and Fantasy Football. You can follow him on Twitter: @AndrewHallFF.