Buy Low, Sell High: Fantasy trade targets for Week 5

Heading towards Week 5 of the fantasy football season, which potential trade targets offer value as either buy low or sell high options?

We are now over a quarter of the way through the 2020 fantasy football season and you should have a good idea where your team sits in terms of contending for a championship in 2020. Perhaps you are the 4-0 team already dreaming of the playoffs, or maybe you are sitting at 0-4 and looking to change things drastically. Either way, you should never be settled with your team. Whether you are looking to buy low or sell high, entering Week 5 of the 2020 fantasy season is an ideal time to be eyeing up potential trade targets to give your roster that added talent and depth it needs.

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Who are some fantasy football buy-low Week 5 trade targets?

QB: Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams

I am really not sure what happened this week with Goff and the Rams. After two weeks on the road where everything clicked, things just did not this week. That is now two home performances that have not gone well for Goff. However, he has two good road performances “under his belt”. My focus is on the two 20+ performances against mediocre defenses in the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles, and how he can have more of those.

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Goff has a couple of tough matchups coming against the Washington Football Team, San Francisco 49ers, and Chicago Bears. However, after that, he has games against the Miami Dolphins. the Seattle Seahawks twice, the Arizona Cardinals twice, and the New York Jets. There should be some opportunities for big games for Goff down the stretch this season.

RB: Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins

After a good Week 3 performance, Week 4 was always going to be a tough matchup for Gaskin. While the Seahawks are not particularly great against the run, the game script was always likely to get away from him with such a good offense on the field for Seattle. Gaskin came away with a somewhat disappointing 13 touches for 62 yards and no touchdown, which might leave fantasy owners frustrated entering Week 5.

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That frustration is what makes Gaskin a great buy low in Week 5 because opportunities are not a problem. In Week 4 he led the backfield with 10 of the 15 carries and four of the eight targets for the position. Additionally, Gaskins’ Fantasy Points Differential of -27% tells us he could be due for regression soon. Based on touches, Gaskins has an expected fantasy points total of 66.16, which he is currently 17 points below.

One concern for Gaskin is that he has seen just one carry inside the five-yard line, with Jordan Howard taking the goal-line work. However, inside the 20 he is seeing over 40% of the team’s opportunities, including over 30% inside the 10. Those numbers suggest his wait to find the endzone in 2020 could end in the next couple of weeks.

WR: Isaiah Ford, Miami Dolphins

If I am looking for upside among my receiving core then Ford has as much of it as anyone right now. With just 30.1 fantasy points in PPR leagues so far this season, he is likely not high on people’s radars. He is so low that you may even be able to pick him up off the waiver wire.

However, in terms of opportunity, there are not many more intriguing players right now. In four weeks, Ford has seen 26 targets already, giving him an expected fantasy points total of 44.7 and a Fantasy Point Differential of -33%. So far it has not quite clicked for Ford outside of Week 2, but with 10 targets in Week 4, he seems primed to break out in the coming weeks.

TE: Evan Engram, New York Giants

I am not ready to give up on Engram, and seemingly neither are the Giants. Engram has seen at least five targets in every game this season, including 10 in Week 4. He has yet to turn those targets into a big day, but we all know the potential is there. With soft matchups coming against the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, now is the time to buy low on a tight end who’s expected fantasy points of 52.5 and Fantasy Points Differential of -43% suggest he is set for positive regression over the next month or so.

Which potential trade targets should we be looking to sell high on?

QB: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady and Justin Herbert dueled it out in Tampa Bay on Sunday, in what was arguably the game of the weekend. Brady ended the game with five touchdowns and 369 yards for a fantasy point return over 30. However, that return does not tell the full story of how Brady’s 2020 season has gone so far.

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Week 4 did not start particularly well for Brady. Late in the second quarter, he had a completion percentage hovering in the 50% region and had thrown his second pick-six of the season, his fourth in his last six games. Brady turned it on and there were some pretty balls coming out of his hand, but there were also some underthrows that receivers had to make big adjustments on in order to make the play. Brady does not look quite right and if the Buccaneers do not need him to open it up, which they may not do all that often, I expect some poor returns from Brady.

RB: Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings

I very well may have been wrong to have so much concern about Cook coming into the season, because right now he is playing superbly. However, those numbers are potentially just too good to be true. Through four weeks he is averaging over 18 carries per game and has scored six touchdowns already.

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We know the injury concerns for Dalvin Cook, who has yet to play a full season, and averaging over 18 carries per game only adds to that risk. However, we also need to have efficiency concerns, because right now, among qualified backs, he has the third-highest Fantasy Points Differential (FPD). Through these four weeks, Cook is outscoring his expected fantasy points by a grand total of 33.35 fantasy points, giving him an FPD of 56%.

In the past decade, only seven bacs have finished a season with an FPD over 50%. Therefore, while Cook is a hot name heading into Week 5, it is time to look to sell high on the Vikings star running back.

WR: Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I promise I do not have a vendetta against the Buccaneers, I just simply do not like injury-prone or relying on aging players whose best days are behind them. Mike Evans ticks both of those boxes. Evans was already limited entering Week 1 this season and then went into the locker room in Week 4. It feels like we are a matter of weeks away from losing Evans for a prolonged stretch.

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Week 4 was a great week as an Evans owner. as he reeled in seven of his eight targets for 122 yards and a touchdown. However, with Evans having scored five touchdowns in four games, his Fantasy Points Differential is through the roof at 56%. In the last decade, just 20 receivers have had an FPD over 50% and currently, we have 14 in 2020. That suggests at least 10 of those are going to drop off efficiency-wise, and it is hard not to imagine Evans being one given his struggles with injuries already this season.

TE: Mo Allie-Cox, Indianapolis Colts

I am kicking myself for not selling my shares of Cox last week because I was concerned when Trey Burton returned it would be mean a decrease in opportunities. Having been targeted nine times in the previous two weeks, Cox saw just two targets in Week 4, while Burton saw five. The one beacon of hope we have is that Cox found the end zone in Week 4, meaning that his 8.3 fantasy points return might just be enough to convince someone in your league he is worth buying.

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Be sure to follow us on Twitter @PFN365 to stay up to date with all things around the NFL and the 2020 fantasy football season. Also, continue to visit Pro Football Network for NFL news and in-depth analysis while also visiting our fantasy football section for more coverage and up-to-date rankings.

Ben Rolfe is a Senior Managing Editor at Pro Football Network and is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). You can find him on Twitter @BenRolfePFN


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