Daniil Medvedev ended Jack Draper’s title defense campaign at the 2026 BNP Paribas Open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden on Thursday, March 12, in the quarterfinals. But he only made things even more difficult for himself, as he is now set to face World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals. Alcaraz has been unbeaten so far this year.
Former American pro and respected coach Rick Macci has shared his thoughts on this high-octane matchup, scheduled for Saturday, March 14.
Rick Macci’s Advice for Daniil Medvedev Against Carlos Alcaraz at Indian Wells
Medvedev defeated Draper 6-1, 7-5 in straight sets to end the Briton’s title defense at Indian Wells and secured a spot for himself in the final four of the year’s first ATP Masters 1000 event for the fourth straight year. He has shown incredible form this year, lifting the Brisbane International title and Dubai Tennis Championships, and is yet to drop a single set at Tennis Paradise.
However, he will now face the same opponent in the semifinals, two-time champion Alcaraz, who defeated him twice in consecutive championship matches in 2023 and 2024.
The World No. 1, who is enjoying arguably the best start of a season of his career, is unbeaten this year, boasting a 16-0 record. The Spaniard has dropped just one set in the entire tournament, against Frenchman Arthur Rinderknech in the Round of 32, and is the favorite to lift the title.
According to PFSN’s exclusive interactive simulator, the Russian has about an 18% chance of reaching the final. If Medvedev wins, he would complete the set of titles at all six hard-court ATP Masters 1000 events, having previously triumphed in Cincinnati (2019), Shanghai (2019), Paris (2020), Canada (2021), and Miami (2023). Analyzing the situation and Medvedev’s chances of prevailing against Alcaraz, Macci gave an honest verdict on X.
“Yes, if he plays aggressive dictates more and does Not return serve from L.A. His court position gives the Magician too many options to transition but the Russian Spider is a fighter and it could be a nail biter,” he wrote while answering the question, “Does Meddy have a shot against Carlos?”
Does Meddy have a shot against Carlos? Yes if he plays aggressive dictates more and does Not return serve from L.A. His court position gives the Magician too many options to transition but the Russian Spider is a fighter and it could be a nail biter.@carlosalcaraz
— Rick Macci (@RickMacci) March 14, 2026
According to Macci, all the Russian has to do is play aggressively throughout the match and not let the Spaniard take control. While the American coach advised Medvedev to play close to the net and dominate, he believes the match will be closely contested, with both players giving it their all.
The Russian has previously faced Alcaraz eight times, with the Spaniard holding a dominant 6-2 lead in the head-to-head record. If Alcaraz secures another win, it will mark his fifth consecutive victory over Medvedev and the third time he has defeated the Russian at the venue.
Alcaraz has the best momentum of his career, having recently completed his career Grand Slam at just 22 and already won two titles in the 2026 season. He has dominated in his matches at Tennis Paradise, defeating Grigor Dimitrov, Arthur Rinderknech, Casper Ruud, and Cameron Norrie en route to the semifinals, and is eager to secure a third title at Tennis Paradise.
It will be interesting to see whether Medvedev brings his A-game and makes it difficult for Alcaraz, perhaps even defeating him, or if Alcaraz is completely invincible and reaches another final and lifts another title.
