The 2026 US Open is upon us, and the women’s draw promises an intense four-way battle between Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula, and Coco Gauff for the World No. 1 ranking. While Sabalenka currently sits atop the rankings, she faces a serious threat of surrendering the throne over the course of the fortnight.
Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula Emerge As World No. 1 Contenders Ahead of the US Open
Sabalenka will complete her 105th week as the World No. 1 on Monday, August 31, with 97 of those weeks coming consecutively. The Belarusian has been a dominant force on the WTA Tour over the past couple of years, taking over the top spot from Iga Świątek.
She enjoyed a strong start to the 2026 season, bolstering her lead against her rivals with title runs in Brisbane, Indian Wells, and Miami and a runner-up campaign at the Australian Open. However, her fortunes have taken a sharp turn since the clay season began.
Sabalenka has failed to reach a final since March, and her recent fourth-round exits in Toronto and Cincinnati have only added to her woes. Alongside the task of defending her US Open title, the World No. 1 now faces a daunting challenge to retain her place at the top.
Meanwhile, Elena Rybakina, the 2026 Australian Open champion, has enjoyed a consistent season, adding the WTA 500 title in Stuttgart to her second Grand Slam triumph. She also reached the Indian Wells final and made an impressive start to the North American hardcourt swing, reaching the final in Toronto before advancing to the quarterfinals in Cincinnati.
Rybakina enters the US Open atop the WTA live rankings with 7,901 points. Meanwhile, defending champion Sabalenka is set to drop 2,000 points from last year’s title run and heads into the New York Slam with 6,575 points.
While Rybakina’s fitness has emerged as a concern following her injury retirement in Cincinnati, the World No. 2 has assured fans that she has made a decent recovery ahead of her opening match. Even if she is unable to compete, however, she remains in a favorable position to finish the US Open as the World No. 1.
Sabalenka, meanwhile, has little room for error. The defending champion must successfully retain her US Open crown and hope Rybakina does not advance beyond the quarterfinals. A title run is therefore non-negotiable for Sabalenka, regardless of how her arch-rival fares.
The same applies to World No. 4 Coco Gauff and World No. 3 Jessica Pegula, who have inserted themselves into the World No. 1 conversation with strong performances during the North American hardcourt swing. Pegula’s runs to the finals in Washington, D.C., and Cincinnati have propelled her into the World No. 1 race, with the American entering the New York Slam with 6,485 points in the live rankings.
Meanwhile, Gauff heads into the tournament with 6,464 points in the live rankings after her title run in Cincinnati and semifinal appearance in Toronto. Like Sabalenka, both Americans face a demanding path to the top spot: they must win the US Open and hope Rybakina fails to reach the semifinals to claim the World No. 1 ranking.
If Rybakina reaches the semifinals, her ranking tally will rise to 8,681 points. By comparison, the maximum Sabalenka, Pegula, and Gauff can earn by winning the title is 8,575, 8,485, and 8,464 points, respectively.
MORE: US Open 2026 Draw Featuring Gauff, Sabalenka, Pegula, Rybakina
Should Rybakina, Pegula, or Gauff emerge as the World No. 1 after the US Open, they would become the 30th different woman in history to reach the summit of the rankings. The Grand Slam therefore promises plenty of drama, with the battle for the top spot potentially going down to the final stages as the top four seeds begin their highly anticipated campaigns.
Pegula will kick off her campaign against Elena-Gabriela Ruse on Sunday, August 30. Sabalenka begins her title defense against Camila Osorio on Monday, while Gauff faces Zeynep Sönmez on Tuesday. Rybakina will also begin her campaign on Tuesday, taking on Thea Frodin. The players’ draw paths and chances of making a deep run can be explored with PFSN’s US Open simulator.
