The Raiders have NFL star power on their side, with Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. The Steelers are looking to get Najee Harris going, or perhaps they lean more into Jaylen Warren. For this Sunday Night Football matchup, how should we be approaching Steelers vs. Raiders player prop betting picks? We break those down for tonight and give you our favorite plays.
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Top Steelers vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets to Target
Our team of betting experts give out their favorite player prop bets for Steelers vs. Raiders on Sunday Night Football.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Kenny Pickett Player Props
- Passing Yards: 221.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +150/Under -195)
- Pass Completions: 20.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
- Pass Attempts: 31.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
I don’t think Kenny Pickett is an NFL-caliber starting quarterback. But he also doesn’t have an NFL-caliber play-caller doing him any favors.
The Raiders will present the weakest opposition so far, meaning this could be the week Pickett breaks out. That has me hesitant to take any of his unders. And I’m certainly not taking any overs. Pass on the Pickett props.
Najee Harris Player Props
- Rushing Yards: 50.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receiving Yards: 10.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
- Receptions: 1.5 (Over -150/Under +120)
- Longest Rush: 13.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +150
- First Touchdown Scorer: +850
Even with runs of 21 and 17 yards, Najee Harris went under his rushing yardage line on Monday night. I don’t think Harris is particularly good, but I also don’t think his struggles are entirely his fault.
The Steelers offensive line is not generating any yards before contact for their running backs. And it’s not as if Harris has had any cupcake matchups. This week is the closest he will get.
I still don’t trust Harris enough to make an official pick on his over, but I can offer a lean.
Lean: Longest rush over 13.5 yards (-120 at DraftKings)
Jaylen Warren Player Props
- Rushing Yards: 28.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
- Receiving Yards: 15.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Receptions: 2.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
- Longest Rush: 10.5 (Over -130/Under -105)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +205
- First Touchdown Scorer: +1100
Last week, Jaylen Warren vastly outproduced Harris, primarily in the passing game. Warren caught four passes for a career-high 66 yards. He is consistently playing around 40% of the snaps.
While Warren is clearly the better passing game option, he’s still run just 31 routes in two games. He does lead all running backs in targets with 12, though. Given the favorable matchup, I think we get a solid game out of Warren.
Lean: Over 47.5 rush + receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
George Pickens Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 51.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 4.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
- Longest Reception: 21.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +175
- First Touchdown Scorer: +1000
Operating without Diontae Johnson, George Pickens displayed alpha upside, catching four passes for 127 yards and a touchdown. However, his performance wasn’t nearly as good as it should’ve been.
Pickens saw 10 targets, which is great, yet only caught four of them. The low catch rate is a product of poor play design and uncatchable targets.
The Raiders present an easier matchup, but I’m not confident enough to make any pick here. Pass.
Pat Freiermuth Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 31.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Receptions: 3.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
- Longest Reception: 15.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +220
- First Touchdown Scorer: +1200
I know I want to fade Pat Freiermuth, who is a complete afterthought in the Steelers offense. I couldn’t decide how. So, I decided to split the bet.
This is a single-unit fade on Freiermuth in the form of two bets. So far, Freiermuth has exactly two catches for five yards on the season. His usage has been erratic, playing 50% of the snaps in Week 1 and 75% of the snaps in Week 2 (although a big hit to the chest may be to blame for Week 1).
In Week 1, Freiermuth saw four targets. In Week 2, despite playing more and running two more routes, he saw just one target.
Simply put, Kenny Pickett’s first read is almost never the Muth. So, my read is to fade him.
Picks: Under 32.5 receiving yards (-113 on Ceasars) and under 3.5 receptions (-131 on Caesars)
Jimmy Garoppolo Player Props
- Passing Yards: 239.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
- Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
- Pass Completions: 20.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
- Pass Attempts: 30.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
I am not quite sure why Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yardage line is so high. He’s thrown for 185 and 200 yards in each of his first two games. One was a narrow win. The other was a blowout loss. Regardless of the game script, Garoppolo isn’t airing it out.
Now, his line is set at 40 yards higher than his best game so far. It’s a bit confusing. The under just seems so obvious. Perhaps I’m falling into a trap, but I have to recommend it.
Pick: Under 240.5 passing yards (-115 on BetMGM)
Josh Jacobs Player Props
- Rushing Yards: 71.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
- Receiving Yards: 16.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 2.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Longest Rush: 14.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -115
- First Touchdown Scorer: +450
Last week, Josh Jacobs had a truly historic game. He had one of the worst rushing performances in the history of the NFL. You, the learned reader, sitting right there on your couch, had more rushing yards than Jacobs last week. He ran the ball nine times for negative two yards. Yes, you read that correctly.
Now, we’re supposed to believe he can run for over 70 yards? I have no idea what to make of Jacobs. The volume is there. The production hasn’t been. We’ve already got plenty of action on this game. Pass.
Davante Adams Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 76.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 5.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
- Longest Reception: 25.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +110
- First Touchdown Scorer: +600
Davante Adams — still good at football. He’s caught six passes in each of his first two games for 66 and 84 yards, respectively. Garoppolo isn’t throwing much, but when he is, he looks Adams’ way.
This week, Jakobi Meyers is back, which should serve to reduce Adams’ target share a little bit. The Steelers had a lot of trouble defending Amari Cooper last week, but Adams’ lines are set high enough that I am not looking to pounce. This is another pass.
Jakobi Meyers Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 53.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 4.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
- Longest Reception: 21.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +180
- First Touchdown Scorer: +900
Jakobi Meyers missed last week’s game with a concussion. He’s back now, and when we last saw him, he caught nine of 10 targets for 81 yards and two touchdowns.
Adams is still the clear WR1, though. With just a one-game sample size, I don’t really have a feel for Meyers’ role. Pass.