The Baltimore Ravens will host the Pittsburgh Steelers in a pivotal AFC North matchup in Week 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 PM ET and the result of the game will have massive implications in the AFC North Race and NFL playoffs.
We’re previewing the game with trends, insights, stats, and Pro Football Network’s proprietary metrics. Let’s dive in!
Steelers-Ravens QB Preview
Here at Pro Football Network, we have created our own Quarterback+ (QB+) metric, which weighs statistics we value highly and then uses them to evaluate a quarterback across the current season.
Our metric uses numbers that are fully available through 2019, so that’s where the historical context comes from. All data referenced is relative to either the current season or in comparison to stats dating back to 2000 for most or 2019 for pressure-related data.
We’re molding stats that include success rates when pressured, third-down conversion rate, and pocket production. The added wrinkle in this PFN Insight is quantifying “clutch.”
Defining “clutch” performance is an imperfect science. In this case, we’ve used timeliness-based stats to account for score and situation.
For all other QB grades, head over to our 2024 NFL QB Rankings.
Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Season QB+: Grade: B (9th overall)
We saw a slight concern with Russell Wilson as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ starting quarterback this week. A C- performance is far from a disaster, but this week was a chance for Wilson and his team to make a statement. The Eagles did not dominate the game, and if Wilson played well, the game is likely a lot closer than it was at the end.
Wilson had a -0.22 EPA/DB and struggled from a clean pocket, ranking 27th on the week at -0.11 EPA/DB. Converting just 30% of third downs while finishing with a 4.9 nYPA and a 3.9 YAC/Cp is not going to be enough against another high-end team.
It is somewhat of a shame because Wilson has been solid overall since taking over as the starter. He has a 7.6 nYPA but has relied heavily on a 5.9 YAC/Cp number, which ranks sixth. Wilson has avoided mistakes with a 4.3 TD/INT rate, but he’s not necessarily making the most difficult throws.
His overall numbers are good, but they have been inflated by some soft matchups. Serious questions remain about whether Wilson can elevate this team in big games against other playoff teams. We should find out in the next two weeks against the Ravens and Chiefs.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Season QB+ Grade: A+ (1st overall)
What a bounce-back that was from Lamar Jackson in Week 15, with incredible numbers from a clean pocket (1.09 EPA per dropback; EPA/DB) and on third down (80% conversion rate). He finished the week with 11.2 nYPA and an overall EPA/DB of 0.83. However, we should caveat all of that with the fact we would have expected a good performance in a matchup with the New York Giants.
The MVP debate regarding Jackson is going to be intriguing. His QB+ number is one of the best we have seen since 2000 and is better even than his incredible 2019 MVP season. He leads the league in EPA/DB (0.33), nYPA (8.5), pressured EPA/DB (0.04), and TD/INT rate (11.3). That is an impressive list, and that is before we start on statistics that he ranks inside the top five.
Despite some struggles in recent weeks, Jackson still ranks second in the league across the last four weeks, narrowly behind Josh Allen. The five losses for the Baltimore Ravens will count against Jackson, but the fact those are also his worst five games of the season demonstrates just how important he is to this team.
Steelers-Ravens Defense Rankings
PFN’s defense rankings combine statistics such as yards per play, points per drive, sack percentage, turnover percentage, success rate against the run and pass, third-down conversion rate, red-zone efficiency, pressure percentage when not blitzing, and various expected points added (EPA) measures against both the run and pass. These are then weighted accordingly to produce our rankings for each season.
For all other defense rankings, head over to our 2024 NFL Defense Rankings.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Season DEF+ Grade: B- (6th overall)
The defense didn’t get much help from its offense, which had the fewest plays (41) of any team this season in the Week 15 loss in Philadelphia.
Still, this was a subpar performance by the Steelers’ standards. Pittsburgh recorded a 72.6 (C—) grade, its fourth-lowest in a game this season. The Steelers’ defense contributed to the offense’s inability to get on the field, allowing its second-highest third-down conversion rate (58.8%) in a game all season.
On paper, the flailing Eagles pass offense looked like a juicy matchup for the Steelers’ defense entering Sunday. Instead, Pittsburgh posted its second-worst EPA per dropback (-0.32) and pass success rate (44.7%) this year. That’s despite the pass rush getting after Jalen Hurts and posting their second-best pressure rate without blitzing (48.1%) all season.
The Steelers are still a top-five unit by EPA per dropback, so it feels more likely that this was an aberration (particularly given that T.J. Watt’s ankle injury was not as bad as it initially appeared). Pittsburgh will have a chance to clinch the AFC North this week against the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, who posted his worst EPA per play (-0.24) of the season against the Steelers back in Week 11.
After a couple of lean years by their standards in 2021 and 2022 (ranked 15th and 16th, respectively), this will be Pittsburgh’s second straight year ranking inside the top 10 barring a massive collapse down the stretch.
Baltimore Ravens
Season DEF+ Grade:C (16th overall)
Losing Mike Macdonald looked like a disaster for this unit for much of the season. But while the Ravens’ defense isn’t at the same level as the 2023 unit, they’re up to 16th in Defense+ after ranking 10th last season.
Baltimore overpowered the XFL-level Giants offense, recording an 81.9 (B-) grade, their fourth-best output on the year and eighth-best among Week 15 defenses. It was only the Ravens’ fourth top-10 weekly finish of the season.
Baltimore’s pass defense posted its second-best success rate of the season (75.0%), trailing only the Week 4 matchup vs. Buffalo. Third down has been a struggle all year for the Ravens, who rank 23rd in third-down conversion rate (41.3%). That wasn’t a problem vs. the Giants, though, having allowed a season-low 16.7% third-down conversion rate.
Baltimore will obviously face much tougher challenges in the postseason. But with the quality of the offense, league average is good enough for the Ravens to have a chance to fulfill those Super Bowl expectations after all.
Steelers-Ravens Offense Rankings
PFN’s offense rankings combine statistics such as yards per play, points per drive, turnover percentage, success rate against the run and pass, third-down conversion rate, red-zone efficiency, pressure percentage when not blitzing, and various expected points added (EPA) measures against both the run and pass. These are then weighted accordingly to produce our rankings for each season.
For all other offense rankings, head over to our Week 16 Offense Rankings.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Season OFF+ Grade: D+ (22nd overall)
We are eight starts into the Russell Wilson era, and the hope is that the veteran improves the 29th-ranked red-zone offense, though we’ve yet to see that ranking change with this offense in his hands.
Everything else, however, was trending in the right direction prior to a George Pickens injury that has sapped this passing game of its upside.
Najee Harris is running as hard as he has at any point in his career, which gives the Pittsburgh Steelers offense the potential to move into the top half of the league by season’s end.
Pittsburgh does what Pittsburgh always does — not beat themselves under Mike Tomlin.
The Steelers added Mike Williams at the trade deadline to add upside to a unit that checks the basic boxes (13th in third-down rate and seventh in turnover percentage). He’s yet to make much of an impact, even with Pickens sidelined, but his profile is at least interesting in an offense that could be poised to peak at the right time.
The Steelers dropped 44 points on the Bengals in Week 13, and while the opponent certainly factored into that, the idea of Pittsburgh having that sort of ceiling can make them as dangerous as anyone in the final month of the regular season.
Baltimore Ravens
Season OFF+ Grade: A (1st overall)
Baltimore gave up its seat on the PFN offensive ranking throne in Week 13 but has regained it as we head into the final three weeks of the regular season.
The Ravens lead the league in EPA per play and red-zone efficiency — not a surprise when you consider that they have an MVP candidate flanked by an Offensive Player of the Year front-runner, a tandem that puts defenses in a position to decide between bad and worse near the goal line.
The Diontae Johnson situation continues to spiral (Week 15 suspension, and he’s not currently with the team), but with Rashod Bateman’s recent production, along with Mark Andrews becoming one of the NFL’s most efficient red-zone options over the past two months — this offense is humming.
Steelers-Ravens Week 16 Power Rankings
To limit subjectivity from our power rankings, we have devised our PR+ metric, which combines our internal Offense+ and Defense+ metrics, our special teams ranking, and a level of correction for the teams’ strength of schedule and win-loss record (among other things). We also take injuries and other factors surrounding teams into account.
For more on the other teams in the league, head over to our Week 16 NFL Power Rankings.
7. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are a very talented team, and nobody will want to face this squad in the postseason. When they are playing to their full potential, they can compete with any team in the league.
While Baltimore has dropped several winnable games this season, including losses to the Browns and Raiders, this wasn’t the case in Week 15. The Ravens destroyed the Giants 35-14 as Lamar Jackson did whatever he wanted, completing 21 of 25 passes for 290 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions while adding 65 rushing yards.
With the Ravens’ win and the Steelers’ loss to the Eagles, Baltimore now has a 44.1% chance to win the division (compared to 55.4% for Pittsburgh).
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week, we mentioned that the Steelers’ remaining schedule is brutal, with games against the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals (who gave them a tough matchup in Week 13). Pittsburgh had benefitted from playing the fifth-easiest schedule in the NFL entering this week, so we’ll learn a lot about this squad over the final few weeks of the campaign.
Well, that tough stretch kicked off with a loss to the Eagles, 27-13. Pittsburgh’s talented defense couldn’t slow down Jalen Hurts (who completed 25 of 32 passes for 290 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions while rushing for 45 yards and a score), A.J. Brown (who caught eight passes for 110 yards and a touchdown), or DeVonta Smith (who caught 11 passes for 109 yards and a score). The Steelers will try to bounce back in Week 16 on the road against the Ravens in a matchup that could determine the AFC North.
With the Steelers’ loss to the Eagles and the Ravens’ win over the Giants, Pittsburgh now has a 55.4% chance to win the division (compared to 44.1% for Baltimore).