As Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season concludes, the race for the playoffs is heating up. With 23 teams still mathematically alive, we break down where all 32 franchises stack up in our latest NFL Power Rankings.
To limit subjectivity from our power rankings, we have devised our PR+ metric, which combines our internal Offense+ and Defense+ metrics, our special teams ranking, and a level of correction for the teams’ strength of schedule and win-loss record (among other things). We also take injuries and other factors surrounding teams into account.
With the help of PFN’s Playoff Predictor, let’s examine where each team ranks through the first 15 weeks of the season.
1. Detroit Lions
Record: 12-2
- Offense+ Rank: 1
- Defense+ Rank: 5
- Special Teams+ Rank: 10
- SOS Rank: 13
Entering Week 15, the Lions were on a franchise-record 11-game winning streak and PFN’s model was in love with Detroit. The Lions were ranked the No. 1 offense and No. 2 defense, and they had the best odds of earning the NFC’s No. 1 seed (55.6%) and winning the Super Bowl (38.2%).
However, in Week 15, the Bills upset the Lions at Ford Field, 48-35. Jared Goff threw for 494 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions, Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 14 passes for 193 yards and a touchdown, while Jahmyr Gibbs added 114 total yards and two scores (one rushing and one receiving), but it wasn’t enough to pull out the win.
Detroit has already clinched a playoff spot, but this loss makes the battle for the NFC North and NFC’s No. 1 seed significantly more interesting. In fact, the outcome of this game might impact both No. 1 seed races.
Perhaps the biggest takeaway from this game is that Detroit’s banged-up defense lost even more key pieces. Head coach Dan Campbell told reporters that Carlton Davis and Alim McNeill suffered injuries that are likely season-ending. Similar news would come in about RB David Montgomery, too. Not all losses are equal, and this Bills loss is weighing heavily.
Following this loss, the Lions’ chance of winning the NFC North is now 56.7% (compared to 34.6% for the Vikings), and their odds of securing the No. 1 seed are 40.8% (compared to 31.9% for Philadelphia and 22.7% for Minnesota). Detroit still has an NFL-best 25.9% chance of winning the Super Bowl in our model.
2. Philadephia Eagles
Record: 12-2
- Offense+ Rank: 13
- Defense+ Rank: 2
- Special Teams+ Rank: 26
- SOS Rank: 29
With the Lions’ loss to the Bills, the Eagles now have the longest active winning streak in the NFL. On Sunday, Philadelphia defeated the Steelers, 27-13, to secure their 10th consecutive win. Throughout the week, there was drama surrounding the Eagles after veteran Brandon Graham seemingly confirmed tension between Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown.
However, Hurts and Brown didn’t seem to have any issues on Sunday, as Hurts completed 25 of 32 passes for 290 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions while rushing for 45 yards and a score. Meanwhile, Brown caught eight passes for 110 yards and a touchdown. DeVonta Smith also had a strong performance, catching 11 passes for 109 yards and a score of his own.
With the Lions’ loss to the Bills and the Eagles’ win over the Steelers, Philly now has a 31.9% chance of securing the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
3. Buffalo Bills
Record: 11-3
- Offense+ Rank: 3
- Defense+ Rank: 23
- Special Teams+ Rank: 19
- SOS Rank: 12
The Bills went on the road and handed the Lions their first loss since Week 2 of this season. Josh Allen bolstered his MVP case with a dominant performance, as he threw for 362 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions while rushing for 69 yards and two scores. James Cook was terrific as well, rushing 14 times for 105 yards and two scores of his own.
JOSH ALLEN LAUNCHES DEEP.
📺: #BUFvsDET on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/xz6WwJ1N7h— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
Buffalo has now won eight of their last nine games. While the Bills have already locked up the AFC East, they continue to chase the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
After this win, Buffalo now has a 20.0% chance of securing the AFC’s No. 1 seed (compared to 76.7% for Kansas City). If Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury sidelines him down the stretch, this race could get interesting.
4. Minnesota Vikings
Record: 12-2
- Offense+ Rank: 10
- Defense+ Rank: 3
- Special Teams+ Rank: 14
- SOS Rank: 23
While debuting their “Winter Warrior” alternate uniforms, the Vikings took it to the Bears, 30-12, improving to 12-2 on the season.
In one of the coolest moments of Week 15, Justin Jefferson used his touchdown celebration to honor Vikings legend Randy Moss, who recently announced that he is battling cancer.
That one is for you, @RandyMoss 💜💛#LetsMossCancer pic.twitter.com/uG31Zqkx8G
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 17, 2024
Prior to the game, Moss’ former teammates, Cris Carter and Jake Reed, carried his Vikings jersey out to midfield during the pregame coin toss as well.
With the Lions’ loss to the Bills and the Vikings’ win over the Bears, Minnesota might have a chance to win the NFC North (34.6% odds) and the NFC’s No. 1 seed (22.7% chance).
Entering the season, sportsbooks had the Vikings’ over/under set at 6.5 wins — they will double that projection with a win over the Seahawks next Sunday.
5. Green Bay Packers
Record: 10-4
- Offense+ Rank: 7
- Defense+ Rank: 16
- Special Teams+ Rank: 25
- SOS Rank: 2
The Packers have had the NFL’s second-hardest schedule to this point, yet they are still 10-4. It’s worth noting that their only losses have come against other teams ranked inside the top five: against the Eagles in Week 1, the Vikings in Week 4, and the Lions in Weeks 9 and 14. Also, two of those losses came with Jordan Love hobbled by injuries.
In Week 15, the Packers defeated the Seahawks 30-13 on Sunday Night Football. After that win, PFN’s model gives them an 8.8% chance of winning the division. However, the Packers have an 97.4% chance of making the playoffs, and they will likely be a tough out in the postseason.
6. Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 13-1
- Offense+ Rank: 11
- Defense+ Rank: 11
- Special Teams+ Rank: 18
- SOS Rank: 30
The Chiefs defeated the Browns on Sunday, but the big takeaway from this game was the ankle injury that quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered in this contest. After the game, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid confirmed that Mahomes’ ankle isn’t broken, just sore.
However, the team is currently considering Mahomes day-to-day, so it remains to be seen if he’ll be available to play next Saturday when the Chiefs take on the Texans.
MORE: Simulate the Rest of the NFL Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor
Carson Wentz will start under center as long as Mahomes is sidelined, and this injury could have an impact on the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Fortunately for the Chiefs, they have already clinched their division and currently have a 76.7% chance of landing the top seed.
Despite having the NFL’s best record, PFN’s model isn’t particularly high on the Chiefs due to their weak schedule to this point and mediocre Offense+, Defense+, and Special Teams+ rankings.
7. Baltimore Ravens
Record: 9-5
- Offense+ Rank: 2
- Defense+ Rank: 15
- Special Teams+ Rank: 29
- SOS Rank: 15
The Ravens are a very talented team, and nobody will want to face this squad in the postseason. When they are playing to their full potential, they can compete with any team in the league.
While Baltimore has dropped several winnable games this season, including losses to the Browns and Raiders, this wasn’t the case in Week 15. The Ravens destroyed the Giants 35-14 as Lamar Jackson did whatever he wanted, completing 21 of 25 passes for 290 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions while adding 65 rushing yards.
With the Ravens’ win and the Steelers’ loss to the Eagles, Baltimore now has a 44.1% chance to win the division (compared to 55.4% for Pittsburgh).
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 8-6
- Offense+ Rank: 4
- Defense+ Rank: 22
- Special Teams+ Rank: 6
- SOS Rank: 10
One month ago, the Buccaneers were 4-6 and in the midst of a four-game losing streak. Well, they haven’t lost since. With Sunday’s 40-17 road win over the Chargers, Tampa Bay improved to 8-6 and is in the driver’s seat in the NFC South.
Against the Chargers’ terrific defense, Baker Mayfield completed 22 of 27 passes for 288 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception, while Mike Evans caught nine passes for 159 yards and two scores, and Bucky Irving rushed 15 times for 117 yards. Los Angeles entered this week as the NFL’s best run defense, but the Bucs dominated on the ground, rushing for 222 yards (and totaling 505 yards).
BAKER TO EVANS AGAIN!
📺: #TBvsLAC on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/Mr4qX65HvY— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
Tampa Bay has a really solid resume, with impressive wins over the Lions, Eagles, Chargers, and Commanders, plus they nearly defeated the Chiefs in overtime.
The red-hot Bucs have the NFL’s fourth-easiest schedule down the stretch, with remaining games against the Cowboys (road), Panthers, and Saints. After this win over the Chargers, the Bucs now have an 83.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 79.3% chance of winning the NFC South. It’s very possible that Tampa Bay could win the division and enter the postseason on a seven-game winning streak.
9. Denver Broncos
Record: 9-5
- Offense+ Rank: 20
- Defense+ Rank: 1
- Special Teams+ Rank: 8
- SOS Rank: 28
With their 31-13 victory over the Colts in Week 15, the Broncos have now won four straight games. Bo Nix threw three touchdowns, connecting with Courtland Sutton, Adam Trautman, and Nate Adkins while Denver’s defense picked off Anthony Richardson twice and recovered three fumbles.
Nix, the No. 12 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, has been one of the pleasant surprises of this season, exceeding all expectations for how he would fare as a rookie. If he plays well down the stretch, he could challenge Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels for the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
With this win, Denver is now 9-5 and has an 84.0% chance of making the playoffs.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 10-4
- Offense+ Rank: 22
- Defense+ Rank: 6
- Special Teams+ Rank: 1
- SOS Rank: 27
Last week, we mentioned that the Steelers’ remaining schedule is brutal, with games against the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals (who gave them a tough matchup in Week 13). Pittsburgh had benefitted from playing the fifth-easiest schedule in the NFL entering this week, so we’ll learn a lot about this squad over the final few weeks of the campaign.
Well, that tough stretch kicked off with a loss to the Eagles, 27-13. Pittsburgh’s talented defense couldn’t slow down Jalen Hurts (who completed 25 of 32 passes for 290 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions while rushing for 45 yards and a score), A.J. Brown (who caught eight passes for 110 yards and a touchdown), or DeVonta Smith (who caught 11 passes for 109 yards and a score). The Steelers will try to bounce back in Week 16 on the road against the Ravens in a matchup that could determine the AFC North.
With the Steelers’ loss to the Eagles and the Ravens’ win over the Giants, Pittsburgh now has a 55.4% chance to win the division (compared to 44.1% for Baltimore).
11. Washington Commanders
Record: 9-5
- Offense+ Rank: 5
- Defense+ Rank: 20
- Special Teams+ Rank: 12
- SOS Rank: 32
After dropping three straight games from Week 10-12, the Commanders have bounced back with back-to-back wins. In Week 15, Washington defeated the Saints 20-19 in a game that was too close for comfort, coming down to a final two-point conversion attempt.
Jayden Daniels completed 25 of 31 passes for 226 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions while adding 66 rushing yards, and Terry McLaurin had seven catches for 73 yards and two touchdowns.
The Commanders now have a 65.4% chance of making the playoffs, but it is still fair to question their credentials. They have zero wins against teams with a winning record, as they are 0-4 when facing teams who are .500 or better this season. Next week’s matchup against the Eagles is a great litmus test for Washington.
12. Los Angeles Rams
Record: 8-6
- Offense+ Rank: 9
- Defense+ Rank: 25
- Special Teams+ Rank: 28
- SOS Rank: 3
In Week 14, the Rams got an impressive win over the Bills, which looks even better now that Buffalo took down Detroit one week later. Los Angeles followed up that victory with a huge Thursday Night Football win over their division-rival 49ers.
It was an ugly 12-6 victory, but the Rams got it done and now have a 56.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 45.5% chance of winning the NFC West. With the Seahawks losing to the Packers this week, the Rams now sit atop the division. Los Angeles and Seattle will face off in Week 18 in a matchup that could determine the division title.
Los Angeles has come a long way since dropping four of their first five games.
13. Arizona Cardinals
Record: 7-7
- Offense+ Rank: 6
- Defense+ Rank: 27
- Special Teams+ Rank: 20
- SOS Rank: 1
After defeating the Patriots 30-17 in Week 15, the Cardinals improved to 7-7 and kept their postseason hopes alive. Arizona’s schedule hasn’t done them any favors, as they have played the hardest slate of any team in the NFL to this point, including games against the Lions, Vikings, Packers, Bills, Commanders, and Chargers, plus their division foes (the Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks).
Arizona currently has a 22.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 17.8% chance of winning the division. While their schedule has been brutal, they got a nice break this week and will once again have a very winnable game next week against the Panthers before finishing their season with back-to-back divisional games against the Rams and 49ers.
14. Seattle Seahawks
Record: 8-6
- Offense+ Rank: 16
- Defense+ Rank: 9
- Special Teams+ Rank: 22
- SOS Rank: 9
The Seahawks’ four-game winning streak was snapped by the Packers on Monday Night Football, as Green Bay defeated Seattle 30-13. But perhaps the bigger loss is that of quarterback Geno Smith, who suffered a knee injury in the third quarter of this game.
While trying to throw the ball away under duress, Smith took a shot from Packers linebacker Edgerrin Cooper. He initially tried to hobble off before remaining down and getting examined. He did not return, with Sam Howell taking over under center.
MORE: Early NFL Picks and Predictions for Week 16
After this loss, Seattle has a 43.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 33.3% chance of winning the NFC West. If Smith is sidelined for any of the Seahawks’ remaining games, their odds will take a hit even further.
Next week, Seattle will face the Vikings in another tough matchup against an NFC North contender. Then, the Seahawks will face the Rams in Week 18, which could decide the division depending on what happens over the next two weeks.
15. Houston Texans
Record: 9-5
- Offense+ Rank: 26
- Defense+ Rank: 4
- Special Teams+ Rank: 13
- SOS Rank: 24
In Week 15, the Texans defeated the Dolphins, 20-12, improving to 9-5. C.J. Stroud completed 18 of 26 passes for 131 yards and two touchdowns (both to Nico Collins). However, it was Houston’s defense that did a lot of the heavy lifting, picking off Tua Tagovailoa three times and forcing two fumbles (one recovered).
Nico Collins scores his second TD of the day!
📺: #MIAvsHOU on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/GWZHVWLoQt— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
With this win and the Colts’ loss to the Broncos, Houston clinched the AFC South for the eighth time in franchise history. Houston’s 9-5 record feels like a product of a fairly easy schedule to this point, but things get a lot tougher over the next two weeks as they’ll face the Chiefs and Ravens. This is a great opportunity for the Texans to prove themselves and gain some confidence entering the playoffs.
16. San Francisco 49ers
Record: 6-8
- Offense+ Rank: 14
- Defense+ Rank: 14
- Special Teams+ Rank: 32
- SOS Rank: 8
The 49ers lost this week’s crucial Thursday Night Football game against the Rams, 12-6. Brock Purdy struggled mightly on Thursday, completing 14 of 31 passes for just 142 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception.
This is a team that has lost numerous key players to injuries throughout this season. From Christian McCaffrey to Brandon Aiyuk to Jordan Mason to Javon Hargrave to Nick Bosa to Trent Williams, the 49ers’ have had star-studded injury reports for much of the year.
After Thursday’s loss against the Rams, the 49ers have just a 6.3% chance of making the playoffs and a 3.4% chance of winning the division.
17. Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 8-6
- Offense+ Rank: 23
- Defense+ Rank: 8
- Special Teams+ Rank: 5
- SOS Rank: 21
Last week, we wrote that it is hard to know what to make of this Chargers team. Prior to last week, they had played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, and they were just 1-4 against teams above .500 (with their lone win coming against Denver in Week 6).
We pointed out that we’d learn a lot about this team over the next few weeks, as they would face the Chiefs and Buccaneers. Well, after losing a close game to Kansas City last week, they were blown out 40-17 by Tampa Bay in Week 15.
Baker Mayfield completed 22 of 27 passes for 288 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception, Mike Evans caught nine passes for 159 yards and two scores, while Bucky Irving rushed 15 times for 117 yards. While the Chargers entered this week as the NFL’s best run defense, the Bucs dominated on the ground, rushing for 222 yards (and totaling 505 yards).
Next week, Los Angeles will try to bounce back against the Broncos on Thursday Night Football in a game that could be huge for playoff seeding. Fortunately for the Chargers, their final two contests are against New England and Las Vegas, which should allow them to get to 10 wins and make the postseason (67.6% odds).
18. Miami Dolphins
Record: 6-8
- Offense+ Rank: 15
- Defense+ Rank: 12
- Special Teams+ Rank: 31
- SOS Rank: 31
After winning four of their last five games, the Dolphins dropped their Week 15 contest to the Texans, which will make it significantly harder for them to sneak into the playoffs.
This was a rough game, as Tua Tagovailoa completed 29 of 40 passes for 196 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions, De’Von Achane rushed for just 41 yards, and Tyreek Hill caught just two passes for 36 yards. Meanwhile, Jaylen Waddle didn’t catch a pass and left this game with a knee injury.
After Sunday’s loss, Miami now has just a 21.3% chance of making the postseason.
19. Atlanta Falcons
Record: 7-7
- Offense+ Rank: 12
- Defense+ Rank: 29
- Special Teams+ Rank: 29
- SOS Rank: 11
The Falcons ended their four-game losing streak with a 15-9 victory over the Raiders on Monday Night Football. Kirk Cousins threw his first touchdown pass since Nov. 3, but he still had a very mediocre game (completing 11 of 17 passes for 112 yards, one touchdown, and one interception). It’s clear that the Falcons don’t trust Cousins to make plays, and this performance against a weak Raiders defense isn’t going to silence the calls for No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr.
Atlanta was once in the driver’s seat in the NFC South, but now they have just a 24.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 19.5% chance of winning the division.
PFN’s metrics have been low on the Falcons for much of the season, predicting that the Buccaneers would ultimately come from behind to win the division thanks to their dominant offense and easy schedule down the stretch. If Tampa Bay wins out against the Cowboys, Panthers, and Saints, the division title belongs to them.
The Falcons are a great example of how quickly things can change in the NFL. Not too long ago, Atlanta was 6-3 and looking like a potential playoff contender. Now, many fans are calling for Raheem Morris to bench Cousins for Penix, and even if Atlanta finds a way to sneak into the postseason, this isn’t a team that is scaring anyone.
20. Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 6-8
- Offense+ Rank: 8
- Defense+ Rank: 30
- Special Teams+ Rank: 23
- SOS Rank: 22
The Bengals’ offense has looked great at times this season, but many of their big performances have come in losing efforts. That wasn’t the case in Week 15, when Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, and Co. defeated the Titans, 37-27.
Burrow completed 26 of 37 passes for 271 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. Meanwhile, Brown added 97 rushing yards, a rushing TD, and a receiving TD. Higgins had five catches for 88 yards, and Chase had nine receptions for 94 yards. The Bengals’ defense got in on the fun this week, picking off the Titans four times and recovering two fumbles.
Joe Burrow to Tee Higgins. Tough TD. 😤
📺: #CINvsTEN on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/8Y3KBsLvQC— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
At this point, PFN’s Playoff Predictor gives the Bengals just an 13.3% chance of making the postseason, but they’ll try to keep their slim postseason hopes alive next week with a win over the Browns.
21. Indianapolis Colts
Record: 6-8
- Offense+ Rank: 24
- Defense+ Rank: 24
- Special Teams+ Rank: 15
- SOS Rank: 5
Entering this week, the only way that the Texans could clinch the AFC South was with a win over the Dolphins and a Colts loss to the Broncos. Unfortunately for Indy, that’s exactly what happened on Sunday.
PFN’s model hasn’t been high on Indianapolis this season, as the metrics don’t support the Colts making the playoffs. However, Indy has the NFL’s easiest remaining schedule, with games against the Titans, Giants, and Jaguars in the final three weeks, which is the main reason their postseason hopes are still alive.
While the dream of winning the division is dead, Indianapolis still has a 27.7% chance of making the playoffs as a Wild Card team.
22. Chicago Bears
Record: 4-10
- Offense+ Rank: 25
- Defense+ Rank: 10
- Special Teams+ Rank: 16
- SOS Rank: 15
In Week 6, the Bears blew out the Jaguars in London and were entering their bye week with a 4-2 record. They had just won back-to-back games, and they were feeling good.
Unfortunately, Chicago hasn’t won a game since, and it cost head coach Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron their jobs. With their 30-12 loss to the Vikings in Week 15, the Bears are now eliminated from the postseason after dropping eight consecutive contests. This was a very difficult stretch, as it included games against the Lions, Vikings (twice), Packers, Commanders, 49ers, and Cardinals, but they also lost convincingly against the Patriots in Week 10.
MORE: Try PFN’s Free Mock Draft Simulator With Trades
Unfortunately for the Bears, their schedule doesn’t get any easier over the final few weeks of the season, as they have to face the Lions, Seahawks, and Packers (away) down the stretch. This is the downside of playing in the NFL’s toughest division.
Here’s one bright side for Bears fans: No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 6 and has an active streak of 266 consecutive pass attempts without an interception, which is the longest such streak by a rookie in NFL history. Chicago will try to end their skid next week at home against Detroit.
23. New Orleans Saints
Record: 5-9
- Offense+ Rank: 19
- Defense+ Rank: 17
- Special Teams+ Rank: 7
- SOS Rank: 25
Despite injuries to numerous key players such as Derek Carr, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Taysom Hill, the Saints nearly upset the Commanders in Week 15. The game came down to the final play, as New Orleans scored a late touchdown and opted to go for a two-point conversion and the win.
While the Saints weren’t able to win, it’s worth noting that this team has looked much better in the second half of the season. A few weeks ago, New Orleans had lost seven straight games and fired head coach Dennis Allen. Ever since, they are 3-2, and their two losses were hard-fought battles against the Commanders and Rams. The Saints are a long shot to make the playoffs (1.1% chance), but give them credit for continuing to fight.
24. New York Jets
Record: 4-10
- Offense+ Rank: 18
- Defense+ Rank: 13
- Special Teams+ Rank: 20
- SOS Rank: 19
From acquiring four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers, three-time All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams, and All-Pro pass rusher Haason Reddick to parting ways with head coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas midseason, the Jets have made aggressive moves in hopes of making the playoffs and turning around this franchise.
However, New York was eliminated from the playoffs last week, so the Jets aren’t playing for much at this point. Still, New York snapped their four-game losing streak in Week 15, defeating the Jaguars 32-25.
Considering the Jets entered the season with Super Bowl aspirations, this year has been a huge disappointment. Remember, this was a team that won seven games last year despite starting Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle at quarterback.
This will be an interesting offseason for the Jets, and it seems likely that Rodgers’ (and Adams’) days with the team are numbered.
25. Cleveland Browns
Record: 3-11
- Offense+ Rank: 32
- Defense+ Rank: 7
- Special Teams+ Rank: 10
- SOS Rank: 17
When Jameis Winston took over for Deshaun Watson earlier season, it provided a spark for the Browns offense. However, you never know which Winston will show up. In Week 15, Bad Jameis showed up in the Browns’ loss to the Chiefs, as he completed 16 of 25 passes for 146 yards, zero touchdowns, and three interceptions (while also taking five sacks and fumbling the ball once).
Winston now has three three-INT games this season. He didn't step in as starter until Week 8, but now has 12 interceptions, three off Kirk Cousins' NFL lead … https://t.co/TSvTFOGD7G
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) December 15, 2024
This is Winston’s third three-interception game of the season. Even though he didn’t become the Browns’ starter until Week 8, he now has 12 interceptions on the year — the second-most of any player in the league this season behind only Kirk Cousins.
With this loss, the Browns currently pick No. 7 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft and have a 4.6% chance of securing the No. 1 selection.
26. Dallas Cowboys
Record: 6-8
- Offense+ Rank: 21
- Defense+ Rank: 19
- Special Teams+ Rank: 3
- SOS Rank: 18
Much to the chagrin of fans who wanted Dallas to tank for a higher pick, the Cowboys have played well as of late, winning three of their last four games. After winning a pair of games against NFC East opponents (the Commanders and Giants), Dallas dominated the Panthers 30-14 in Week 15.
Cooper Rush had his best game of the season, throwing for 214 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions, while Rico Dowdle rushed for 149 yards, and CeeDee Lamb chipped in nine receptions for 116 yards and a score.
After winning three of their last four, the Cowboys are currently slotted to pick No. 14 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft.
27. Tennessee Titans
Record: 3-11
- Offense+ Rank: 30
- Defense+ Rank: 18
- Special Teams+ Rank: 27
- SOS Rank: 7
With Sunday’s loss against the Bengals, the Titans have now lost three straight games (and eight of their last 10). Will Levis was benched for Mason Rudolph in this contest after he threw three interceptions and lost a fumble. Levis attempted just 12 passes (for 89 yards) but still managed to throw three picks.
Rudolph fared better, completing 21 of 26 passes for 209 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. This begs the question: will the Titans look to find Levis’ replacement in the 2025 NFL Draft?
If the season ended today, Tennessee would have the No. 6 selection, and the Titans still have a 5.6% chance of landing the No. 1 pick. With such a high pick, it’s possible Tennessee could find a new quarterback of the future.
28. Las Vegas Raiders
Record: 2-12
- Offense+ Rank: 29
- Defense+ Rank: 26
- Special Teams+ Rank: 9
- SOS Rank: 4
Give the Raiders credit: Even without their top two quarterbacks (Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew), their superstar defensive end (Maxx Crosby), and their starting running back (Sincere McCormick) exiting midgame, they still took the Falcons down to the wire. For the Raiders, a hard-fought loss is probably the best-case scenario, as it improves their draft pick and gives them a better shot at securing the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
MORE: Current NFL Draft Order and Everything To Know About 2025 NFL Draft
If the season ended today, the Raiders would have the top selection. But factoring in each team’s record, metrics, and remaining schedule, PFN’s model currently gives the Giants the best odds (36.8%) to pick No. 1 overall in this year’s draft. Even though the Raiders currently hold the top pick, they have just the third-best odds (16.6%) to finish at No. 1.
29. Carolina Panthers
Record: 3-11
- Offense+ Rank: 28
- Defense+ Rank: 32
- Special Teams+ Rank: 24
- SOS Rank: 20
In recent weeks, Bryce Young made huge strides and earned at least one more season as Carolina’s starting quarterback. However, Young regressed today in the Panthers’ 30-14 loss against the Cowboys, completing 19 of 28 passes for 219 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions while losing two fumbles and taking six sacks. It was a rough showing for the former No. 1 overall pick, and the Panthers’ defense struggled mightily as well.
Carolina has now lost four straight games, and the Panthers currently hold the No. 5 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. They have a 12.7% chance of securing the No. 1 overall pick.
30. Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 3-11
- Offense+ Rank: 17
- Defense+ Rank: 31
- Special Teams+ Rank: 4
- SOS Rank: 6
The Jaguars are eliminated from the playoffs and very little has gone right for this team this season. However, give them credit: they are still fighting. After nearly defeating the Texans in Week 13, Jacksonville beat the Titans 10-6 in Week 14 and nearly defeated the Jets 32-25 this week.
While this was a hard-fought game, this loss might actually be for the best since Jacksonville is still in the mix for the No. 1 overall pick. After dropping to 3-11, the Jaguars currently hold the No. 4 overall pick and have a 3.7% chance to land the No. 1 selection in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Even with Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, and Gabe Davis, among others sidelined for the rest of the year, the Jaguars aren’t quitting on head coach Doug Pederson. It remains to be seen if this will allow him to keep his job.
31. New England Patriots
Record: 3-11
- Offense+ Rank: 27
- Defense+ Rank: 28
- Special Teams+ Rank: 2
- SOS Rank: 26
On Sunday, the Patriots dropped their fourth straight game as the Cardinals defeated New England 30-17. James Conner torched the Patriots for 110 yards and two touchdowns as their defensive struggles continued.
The offensive improvements continue to be promising, but the defense is still a problem. Fortunately, Drake Maye looks capable of masking some of those issues down the line. While this has been a tough season for New England, the fact that they have seemingly found their quarterback of the future makes it easier to stomach.
After dropping to 3-11, the Patriots have an 17.9% chance of landing the No. 1 pick.
32. New York Giants
Record: 2-12
- Offense+ Rank: 31
- Defense+ Rank: 21
- Special Teams+ Rank: 16
- SOS Rank: 14
This has been a season to forget for New York. The Giants lost their ninth consecutive game on Sunday, getting blown out 35-14 by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Jackson did whatever he wanted, completing 21 of 25 passes for 290 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions while adding 65 rushing yards.
Offensively, the Giants played their fourth quarterback of the season, with Tim Boyle stepping under center since Tommy DeVito suffered a concussion and Drew Lock had heel and elbow injuries. Boyle was fine, but this season can’t end soon enough for New York.
Fortunately for the Giants, PFN’s model currently gives New York the best odds (36.8%) to land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. New York still has contests against the Eagles, Colts, and Falcons (road).
It will be interesting to see if the Giants part ways with head coach Brian Daboll. While he’s had some tough outings, plenty of franchises would love to hire him if New York fires him.
