Soppe’s Week 2 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try – @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready – this piece, is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys

• Spread: Cowboys -6.5
• Total: 45.5
• Saints implied points: 19.5
• Cowboys implied points: 26

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr: Carr put together one of the best first quarters of his career last week (5-for-8 for 85 yards and a pair of touchdowns) and finished with the third-highest performance grade, per our QB Rankings metric. Not only was the raw production there, but how about six of those eight passes being thrown to different players?

It’s pretty difficult to overstate how impressive he was last week. It’s also pretty difficult to justify chasing those points this week. Last season, the ‘Boys led the league in pressure rate (47.5%) and there’s no reason to think that changes this year.

Carr’s ranking splits, 2023:

• Points per pressure pass: 23rd (behind Kenny Pickett)
• Points per non-pressured pass: sixth (ahead of Patrick Mahomes)

I don’t think what we saw last week was an aberration, but I also don’t think we see anywhere near that level of comfort this weekend; that leaves Carr easily outside of my top 15 at the position.

Dak Prescott: How quickly we forget. It’s easy to recall that Prescott threw for over 4,500 yards last season with 36 touchdowns, but do you remember your feeling after Week 1? The Cowboys dismantled the Giants and you likely lost your matchup if you were counting on Prescott in a meaningful way (143 pas yards with zero touchdowns).

If that’s the threshold, I could make the case that Prescott is ahead of pace. His Cowboys again came out of the gates fast in Week 1, and he was asked to do very little (179 passing yards and one touchdown). The Saints figure to pose a great threat, but I think America’s QB is up for the challenge.

In Week 1, the Saints were the sixth-best defense at creating pressure without blitzing, an area that caused them issues a season ago. If we assume that they’ve improved and can sustain that growth — I’m still not worried. I assumed that mobile QBs would thrive most when sped up without an extra defender coming at them, and I was largely right, but two names proved to be outliers.

Current starting QBs’ efficiency when pressured but not blitzed in 2023:

1. Lamar Jackson
2. Matthew Stafford
3. Jordan Love
4. Kyler Murray
5. Prescott
6. Jalen Hurts

Stafford and Prescott are the interesting names here. My general train of thought is that their processing speed is at such a level that the extra defender hanging back doesn’t impact them as much as it does other pocket-locked QBs.

Ideally, Jake Ferguson is healthy; if he is cleared, Prescott will push inside my top 10 for this game. As it is right now, he’s a fringe QB1 that should be viewed as a viable option in most formats.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara: We will get into this with the Buccaneers as well – how much of Week 1 was a result of the opponent and how much was a sign of a breakout?

Kamara was allotted room to run, and that’s great, I’m just not sold on this offensive line providing that for him on any sort of consistent basis. In Week 1 against the Panthers, he posted a +6.7% risk/reward ranking, simply the difference in the percentage of carries that picked up 10+ yards and the percentage of carries that failed to gain yardage. To put into perspective how good that is for this profile:

Kamara’s risk/reward by season:

• 2021: -10.4% (career low at the time)
• 2022: -8.5%
• 2023: -11.1% (career low)

That, of course, doesn’t mean that Kamara is going to give back all of his gains this week, but when it comes to evaluating his long-term value, I’d approach with caution. He cashed in a one-yard touchdown last week, a nice value boost but a touch he doesn’t always get.

Kamara doubled up the first-half snap count of Jamaal Williams last week and profiles as a pretty safe bet to be featured in this offense that I believe in. He checks in as a safe RB2 in PPR formats this week – he’s viable, I’d just be careful in assuming we are trending toward a bounce-back rushing season.

Ezekiel Elliott: This backfield isn’t going to be fun to monitor on a week-to-week basis, but I do think Elliott did enough in the season opener to earn the benefit of the doubt until otherwise noted.

The snap share is always going to be tight between him and Rico Dowdle, though the fact that he matched Dowdle in routes (10) was encouraging and him falling forward for a gain on 100% of his carries against the Browns was a big plus.

You’re not rostering and Flexing Elliott under the impression that he’s a big-play threat or a good bet to post top-10 number, but the ability to move the chains is valuable in an offense that reaches the red zone over 40% of the time. He’s in the conversation with the good-role, bad-team running backs that make up the back end of my Flex ranks (Zamir White, Devin Singletary, etc.).

Rico Dowdle: He had the longest carry by a Dallas running back last week, reinforcing the idea that he is the option in this backfield with the most spike-play potential. That said, outside of that attempt, Dowdle picked up just 2.3 yards per carry and gave the Cowboys no reason to take Elliott off the field.

It’s going to be a test of patience. There might come a time when you are forced with the decision of cutting Dowdle for a flash-in-the-pan option – I’d resist the urge. You can’t play him right now (hovering around RB40 in my ranks), and that might not change in the short term. He is, however, a part of a high-floor offense that lacks reliable options outside of CeeDee Lamb.

Dowdle isn’t an impact asset at the moment. He offers the type of role upside I like to stash. Both things can be true and, in this case, are.

Wide Receivers

Chris Olave: These dud performances happen, that much we know. Olave had four single-digit fantasy point totals last season and you knew what you were getting involved in when you invested this summer.

That said, you usually don’t want an airball from him in a big Carr game. The standard box score isn’t what scared me from Week 1, it was the lack of interest in getting him involved. Olave’s 3.3 expected PPR points were a career low, an odd result for the ace receiver in an offense that put 47 points on the board.

For now, there’s nothing to do. Olave fell a handful of spots in my rankings but not nearly enough to land him outside of starting fantasy lineups. With Dallas likely to make Carr feel the heat in this matchup, my hunch is that we see more first-read throws, making a spike in involvement a good bet.

Rashid Shaheed: Déjà vu.

Shaheed scored north of 16 PPR fantasy points on Sunday, something that we saw happen to kick off last season as well. He, however, then went without a touchdown for a month and went two months until he had a five-catch game.

I’ve been early to the Shaheed part for the better part of two years now, and while I’m not jumping off, I’m not getting in front of my skis like I did last season after the fast start. I loved seeing him score from 59 yards out on New Orleans’ fifth play of this season, and he did excel in the hidden-yardage department by forcing a 31-yard DPI.

He’s a talented field stretcher capable of breaking any slate, but until we see more consistency on the target-earning side of things, I can’t get him inside my top 30 at the position. This week, I have him ranked just behind Brian Thomas Jr. (vs. Cleveland) and ahead of popular waiver wire add Demarcus Robinson (at Arizona).

He’s almost never going to finish as WR37, where I have him ranked. He’s either cracking the top 25 or falling outside of the top 50 – your job is to evaluate your matchup and determine how much risk you can swallow at your WR3/Flex spot, an equation that will be different every week.

CeeDee Lamb: Even in a blowout where this passing game was asked to do very little, Lamb saw 10+ targets for the eighth straight game (playoffs included). He’s on the shortlist for best players at the position in the game and on the even shorter list when it comes to projectable volume. If you told me the Saints were going to double-team him for the entire game, I’d still rank him as a top-15 play.

Spoiler alert: I don’t think that is the plan. He’s my WR3 this week, and that’s about as low as I’ll go on him as long as he is healthy.

Brandin Cooks: After the worst year of his career on a yards-per-route-run basis, Cooks found paydirt in Week 1, not an ideal start for my full fade of the veteran.

I’m not taking the “L” just yet. Cooks was left essentially unguarded on his 21-yard touchdown as the Browns brought the house, a play that counts in the box score but is not something you can bank on.

If the Saints can make Prescott uncomfortable, like I believe they can, Cooks is going to struggle to pay off you Flexing him. I’m not sold the soon-to-be 31-year-old can uncover fast enough in such a matchup – he’s outside of my top 50 at the position, falling behind Adonai Mitchell and Greg Dortch, to name a few.

Tight Ends

Taysom Hill: The random number generator saw an end-zone target in the first quarter and finished Week 1 with five carries to go along with a pair of targets.

That’s about what I think we can expect from him, and that’s only going to be of use when he finds the end zone. I prefer him to the low-usage options at the position (Dalton Schultz and Pat Freiermuth for example), but he still doesn’t crack my top 12 given the depth at the position (Isaiah Likely was the big add of the week after his huge debut, and I’d play him ahead of Hill).

Jake Ferguson: Reporting out of Dallas is that Ferguson is “week-to-week” with a knee injury that he suffered against the Browns, making him unlikely to play this week for a team that is as focused on the long-term as anything.

I don’t like holding a pair of tight ends on my roster, but I think the upside as the secondary option in Dallas is reason enough to make an exception while Ferguson works his way back to health.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

• Spread: Lions -7
• Total: 51.5
• Buccaneers implied points:22.3
• Lions implied points: 29.3

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield: Last week was a work of art. Sure, it was the Commanders, but Mayfield showcased a wide array of skills and was easily the top-graded QB in our internal metric.

Can he sustain it?

My answer is no, not long-term. He lit Washington up for a perfect passer rating on deep passes, and while that is impressive, it does need to be contextualized: the Commanders were the worst deep-ball defense last season with seven more long TD passes than anyone and the highest passer rating on such passes. Not every matchup is going to be that friendly.

That said, don’t mistake my “regression is inevitable” take with “regression is happening now.” Tampa Bay’s next four games all come against secondaries that were worse than the league average against the deep pass a year ago (Detroit, specifically, was the 11th worst in terms of yards per attempt and the 10th worst in passer rating).

Even if you’re skeptical, Mayfield proved capable of producing when counted out last season. He averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game in 2023 when listed as an underdog, a significant bump from the 13.4 PPG he averaged as a favorite.

Mayfield slides just inside my top 15 at the position, but he’s not my favorite QB in this contest.

Jared Goff: My “Goff for MVP” bet isn’t off to a great statistical start, but I’m fine with labeling him as a top-10 option this week. The Bucs ranked 28th last season in defending the slot (passer rating) and deep passes (touchdown rate), giving Detroit’s signal caller a few paths to posting a big number with Jameson Williams seemingly breaking out.

The fact that the Bucs are stout against the run only helps further build Goff’s case – Jahmyr Gibbs figures to out-snap Montgomery in this spot, and that creates even more potential for those “cheap” targets to result in splash plays.

If given the choice, I’d play Goff over Jayden Daniels, even with the rookie in a golden spot against the Giants.

Running Backs

Rachaad White: Football guy and fantasy guy are never going to see eye to eye on White. Against the inept Commanders last week, he carried 15 times for a whopping 31 yards, and you could argue that he was fortunate to get there (15 yards came on a single carry).

White, however, did what White does and finished the week safely as an RB2. For the afternoon, 81.3% of his PPR fantasy points came through the air, an unsustainable way to produce for most, but we are dealing with a unique exception.

I’m obviously late to the party here, but what White does is different. It’s also sustainable.

We grow as humans, and that’s the first time I’ve written that. White doesn’t fit into a neat box, and that’s OK. We like our featured backs to be versatile and our secondary backs to be pass-catching specialists (remember all of those years from Theo Riddick?).

White is a lineup lock. Every single week.

Defenses are worried about Mayfield taking the top off and will live with the dump-offs to White, plays that pile up the fantasy points. If he ever develops efficiency on the ground, White will move into my second tier at the position. But even without it, he’s a top-15 option who should be trusted in what might be the highest-scoring game of the week.

Jahmyr Gibbs: Is it crazy that I felt underwhelmed by Gibbs last week? He finished with 74 yards, a touchdown, and six targets – and yet, I didn’t leave the game thinking that he lived up to expectations.

That speaks to the bar he has already set. None of his 15 touches gained 15 yards, and David Montgomery had the walk-off touchdown to steal the headlines. If what we got last week was something of a floor, Gibbs might have a path to crack the top tier at the position this season.

The Commanders ran for three scores and gave their running backs 33.3% of the targets against the Bucs last weekend – if the Lions have a similar approach, Gibbs could post his first 20-point effort of the season and prove worthy of the draft capital you spent on him this summer.

David Montgomery: The veteran held a 17-11 carry edge over Gibbs in the overtime win over the Rams, and the Lions made it clear that they trust their backfield in a significant way. To close out Los Angeles, Detroit gave seven straight touches to their running backs (Montgomery put a bow on the victory with back-to-back-to-back carries where the Rams knew exactly what was coming).

I’m going to have both Detroit running backs ranked as starting options for most, if not all, weeks, with the difference being the result of the matchup. This is a great Gibbs spot, and that results in Montgomery falling to the back end of my RB2 rankings, but the scoring equity is enough to justify playing him.

Worry not — the Cardinals next will result in the gap between these two narrowing and me expressing more confidence in Montgomery as a strong play.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: It’s been a decade now, and we have very little proof that anyone not named Marshon Lattmore can slow down Evans. He scored twice in the blowout of the Commanders last week, including a dime from Mayfield into seemingly perfect coverage, as he continues to be an unstoppable force around the end zone.

The Lions are on the short list of teams I think have a chance to come out of the NFC this winter, but it’s not because of their defense. They were the fourth-worst red-zone unit a season ago, allowing a touchdown 66% of the time, and as we know, 66% of the time it works every time when throwing to Evans in those situations.

This game has two of my top six receivers in it for the week. Get your snacking situation set up before kickoff; you’re not going to want to miss any plays from this one.

Chris Godwin: Everyone in this Bucs offense ate last week thanks to Mayfield’s performance (check out our weekly NFL QB rankings – I think there’s a decent chance the performance he put on tape might prove to be the best we see all season!), but was that more of a statement about Washington’s defense?

Whenever a big game like that happens, I prefer to look at the usage numbers as opposed to the box score. Godwin was used in the slot 53.2% of the time, up from 33.3% last season, a great sign for his status as a weekly Flex option given the value of those looks.

Of course, with that role comes some compromising. His aDOT stood at 10.3 in 2023 but was just 4.4 in Week 1. That’s not a deal breaker for me, but it does limit his per-target upside against defenses that aren’t allergic to tackling.

The next month looks pretty good to me for Godwin (DET-DEN-PHI-ATL), and that’ll more than likely keep him inside my top 30 at the position over that stretch. But after that?

The month following that (Weeks 5-10) is brutal and is something I’ll be looking to avoid. Play Godwin now and take his consistent production to the bank, but don’t get too tied to it – moving him as September comes to a close is my current plan of attack.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: Was I thrilled when Sunday Night Football ended last week and St. Brown’s target count was higher than the yardage gained on his longest reception? Of course not, but making any sort of actionable lineup changes as a result of a slow Week 1 is fantasy malpractice.

You drafted St. Brown as your bona fide WR1 and he should remain labeled as such. In fact, I wanted to bury this game write-up further down this article in hopes that people would get fatigued from reading and not lock St. Brown into their DFS lineups this week.

That’s my move. I love Jameson Williams as much as anyone (keep reading), but he’s only 65% the cost of St. Brown on DraftKings and promises to hold heavy ownership. If I can get Detroit’s WR1 as something of a contrarian play in a great spot where I think the Lions can score 30+ points, I’m not going to overthink it.

Jameson Williams: We said it all offseason and it’s always nice when things work out. Williams owns a rare skill set, and he saw his snap shares spike as last season came to a close. Ending with positive trends is never a bad thing, but it should be viewed as especially predictive when it comes to a team with Super Bowl aspirations.

Detroit is nothing short of a perfect spot for a player like this, and that is why I’m not hesitating to rank him as a top-30 option this week (and moving forward). Williams isn’t the only game-breaking receiver in the league, but he might be the only one who plays on a fast track, with a pocket-locked quarterback, in an offense that has elite target earners in the short-and-intermediate areas.

His 32.1% target share from Week 1 may be his high-water mark for the season, and that’s OK. No one is going to argue with plenty of opportunities, but he doesn’t need them in order to pay off (the way a Chris Godwin does, for example). He simply needs to be on the field (85.2% snap share on Sunday night, a career-best by 13 full percentage points) and threatening defenses.

Amari Cooper might be a better all-around receiver. Stefon Diggs could probably claim the same, and I think Brian Thomas Jr. has a better shot to lead his team in targets at any point during his career than Williams. Don’t care. This is a production-based business, and this perfect spot against a defense that excels at stopping the run isn’t slowing down my optimism – give me Williams over all of those options this week.

Tight Ends

Cade Otton: It’s a new season, but it’s the same old Otton.

Cardio Cade led the Bucs in routes during their impressive Week 1 rate and finished with a – checks notes – 6.7% target share.

According to recent estimates, that means that if you put 200 men in a room in the USA and picked one, you’d have roughly the same chance as picking a “John” as you would of stumbling upon an Otton target if you picked a random Mayfield sampling of 100 passes.

Snaps are valuable until they aren’t. Don’t get sucked in just because you see big ole #88 on your TV screen.

Sam LaPorta: You spent big on 2023’s breakout performer and are now in your head, wondering if you got sucked into chasing production.

It’s a long season, and I still think you’ll be rewarded for sticking your neck out for LaPorta. He hauled in four of five targets on Sunday night and totaled 45 yards, a suitable game for most at the position, but well under what you had in mind for a player many (your humble narrator included), ranked atop the TE ranks this summer.

The Rams locked him up during the postseason as well (three targets, 14 yards), giving me hope that his slower day was simply matchup-driven.

I left Week 1 more encouraged than when I entered when it comes to Detroit’s offense. If Williams is going to demand a high level of attention over the top, LaPorta could put up Evan Engram-like numbers from last season while carrying Travis Kelce’s scoring equity.

LaPorta is elite. Don’t talk yourself out of your preseason priors after 60 minutes of action.

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers

• Spread: Colts -3
• Total: 40.5
• Colts implied points: 21.8
• Packers implied points: 18.8

Quarterbacks

Anthony Richardson: Well, that was fun! Highlight packages from Indy’s Week 1 loss were essentially the Texans and then every time Richardson made a positive play. From fadeaway 60-yard dimes to physical runs, we got the full experience in 60 short minutes.

The red-zone interception was bad, but I’ve said it a million times – I don’t care. Interceptions mean next to nothing when it comes to a player like this. Sure, you lose two points, but he’s putting the other team in a position to score and thus ratchet up his aggression even further, and that is where the fantasy production comes from: in bunches.

QBs with 17+ fantasy points and under 12 completions since 2023:

• Richardson: Week 2, 2023 at Texans
• Richardson: Week 4, 2023 vs. Rams
• Richardson: Week 1, 2024 vs. Texans

There’s your entire list. What he brings to the table on a per-play basis is matched by no one in the sport; and while some plays will be maddening, you should feel more than comfortable in trusting that, over the course of four quarters, this man is going to give your fantasy team a chance to win.

Jordan Love: Love extended his streak to seven straight games – including the playoffs – with multiple TD passes on Friday night in Brazil against the Eagles, but an MCL injury suffered at the very end of the loss will likely hold him out through September.

Malik Willis has made three starts (all in 2022 for the Titans), and in those games, he posted a 39.0 passer rating while averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt. He has yet to throw a touchdown and has tossed three interceptions. For reference, Bryce Young was the lowest-graded QB in 2023, with a 73.7 passer rating and 5.5 yards per attempt.

There is athleticism in Willis’ profile (1,822 rushing yards and 27 TDs in his final two collegiate seasons at Liberty), but there’s no reason to dig this deep at the position with all 32 teams in action.

Love should remain rostered in all formats. All reports have him returning before Green Bay’s bye (Week 10), and your goal is to win down the stretch. The Packers play the Lions-Seahawks-Saints-Vikings to close the fantasy season.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor: No running back was on the field for a higher percentage of his team’s offensive snaps in Week 1 than Taylor (95.3%), and that’s really all we can ask for.

Yes, there are going to be some weird weeks where the variance of Richardson bites you, but you’ve got an elite back with versatility in an offense that I think will rank in the top quarter of the league in scoring.

That sounds a lot like the profile of Saquon Barkley, the running back who, you know, hung 33.2 PPR points (RB1 by 6.5 points) on these Packers last week.

Taylor is my RB5 for this week – and I might be too low.

Josh Jacobs: The Colts were a bottom-10 rush defense in terms of success rate last season and allowed 22 touchdowns on the ground, the fourth-most in the NFL.

The matchup is strong, but I can’t rank Jacobs much higher than a run-of-the-mill RB2 that I’m not all that interested in for DFS purposes.

Halfway through the second quarter of the season opener, Jacobs’ rushing yardage share (5.4%) was trending near the percentage of the cap his contract accounts for (2%). He was able to produce a viable final line with 104 yards on 18 touches, but it was about as underwhelming as a triple-digit day can be.

Against the Eagles, 100% of Jacobs’ rushing yards before contact came on two of his 16 attempts, and 41.8% of his yards after contact also came on those two outlier rushes. Those carries, obviously, still count, but with the majority of his touches netting very little, I’m skeptical as to the quality of his touches in an offense now that demands very little respect through the air.

On the plus side, Jacobs out-snapped Emanuel Wilson 42-15 last week. He is the featured back, but that title isn’t as appealing today as it was entering the season. Is this situation much different than the one Jacobs left behind in Vegas?

MarShawn Lloyd: The hamstring injury that limited Lloyd for much of August resulted in him being inactive for the season opener. He deserves to be rostered for the time being, though that might not be the case as we close in on bye weeks, which start Week 5.

Maybe the value of this backfield will return when their starting QB does, but until then, I’m operating under the assumption that the lead role holds only marginal value and that those lower on the depth chart aren’t worth the least bit of consideration.

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman Jr.: The value (or level of concern) you have surrounding Michael Pittman Jr. very much hinges on how much of Week 1 you think is sustainable by the Colts’ passing game.

On one hand, Pittman was targeted on five of Richardson’s first nine passes in the season opener and remains the lone consistent target earner on this offense.

On the other hand – YOLO.

Richardson’s 16.4 aDOT was tied for the most by a player with over 16 attempts in a game since Lamar Jackson cut it loose in Detroit during a Week 3 win in 2021.

For his career, 71.2% of Pittman’s targets have come fewer than 10 yards downfield, making this offensive strategy potentially limiting when it comes to his production.

It’s plenty fair to assume that aDOT regresses sooner than later, but is this the week? Green Bay has allowed the fifth-highest deep passer rating since the beginning of last season, and given that Richardson turned these bombs into points last week, logic would have him doing more of the same in this spot.

Combine that with the Colts being road favorites, and we could run into some game script concerns.

At the end of the day, I think Pittman will be efficient enough with his looks to return top-20 value, but I do have him slotted behind a pair of bounce-back options that carry more upside against NFC East foes in Malik Nabers (at Washington) and Drake London (at Philadelphia).

Josh Downs: After suffering a high ankle sprain early in August, Downs sat out last week against the Texans. The undersized (5’9”, 171 pounds) third-round pick was more of a short-yardage weapon last season (7.4 aDOT), a role he figures to hold again this season.

As a rookie, Downs caught 68 balls and was on the fringe of PPR Flex radars. I’d expect similar returns this season. There will be a time and place for a player like this in your lineup, but it’s not at less than full strength and when no teams are on bye.

While Downs is out and/or limited, Pittman’s floor/ceiling combination is that much more appealing, especially against a Packers defense that allowed 16 completions on passes thrown less than 10 yards downfield in their 2024 opener.

Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell: As mentioned in the Pittman profile, this Packers secondary can be had down the field. Jalen Hurts may have only completed two of seven passes when challenging them deep in Brazil last week – and don’t get me started on the field conditions – but those two completions happened to net 85 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Pierce hauled in a 58-yard bomb after running past double coverage, taking full advantage of the unicorn that Richardson is. Of course, the other side of that coin is the Mitchell Week 1 experience wasn’t as friendly – he was missed on a wide-open 29-yard touchdown and had a path at a 50-yard gain if Richardson didn’t miss him.

I think that is what we are looking at on a week-to-week basis. Over 15 points were left on the field by Mitchell, and Pierce ran hot.

Both of these receivers will carry interesting upside into every matchup, but you’re not going to be able to outrun the low floor.

For me, that puts them firmly on the DFS radar, especially in this advantageous matchup, but off of annual radars unless you’re in true desperation mode. And if that’s the case in Week 2, a bigger conversation needs to be had.

Jayden Reed: Reed is averaging 19.1 PPR points per game over his past nine contests, a mark that would have been WR6 last season between Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua. He also reached 15 PPR points in eight of those contests.

This kid is the real deal and is deserving of the WR1 label for the Packers. He’s a WR2 for fantasy purposes despite a WR3 ADP this summer.

As bullish as I am on the skill set (he looked a lot like Green Bay’s version of Rashee Rice or Zay Flowers in Week 1), the fact of the matter is that we don’t know what this offense is going to look like with Willis under center.

My gut reaction is to assume that the structure of this offense still slants in favor of Reed over his teammates in terms of target hierarchy, but I’m far less confident entering this week than I was entering the season. I’m also less confident, obviously, in the value of those looks.

The Colts allowed 25+ fantasy points to a WR1 five times last season, a sign that they struggle to stop top options. I hate to say it, but for the time being, I’m treating Reed in a similar fashion as Diontae Johnson – a player whose raw talent ranks higher than his projection. He is currently outside of my starting tier at the position.

Like Love, don’t make any rash decisions here. You want to hold onto a player like this. If you don’t roster Reed, you might be able to lowball a trade offer to improve your overall depth.

Amon-Ra St. Brown’s breakout at the end of his rookie season (Weeks 13-18):

• 26.6% points over expectation, 2.07 FP/target, 65% slot

Reed down the stretch of his rookie season (Weeks 11-18):

• 33.7% points over expectation, 1.99 FP/target, 66% slot

Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks: Doubs was the first Packer with multiple catches in the Week 1 loss, and he led the receiver room in routes with 33. Watson had 27, and Wicks had 16. Watson saw three end-zone targets against the Eagles, while Wicks was consistently used in two-receiver sets.

Packers WRs by personnel

11
Romeo Doubs 41
Jayden Reed 40
Christian Watson 32
Dontayvion Wicks 17
Bo Melton 5

Out of 45 plays

12
Romeo Doubs 10
Dontayvion Wicks 9
Christian Watson 4
Bo Melton 1
Jayden Reed 0

Out of 12 plays

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 7, 2024

The point is that we didn’t learn nearly enough to incorporate any of these options into the starting lineup conversation. That would have been my take if Love was under center, and, of course, with him sidelined, I only feel stronger about that label.

Keep an eye on target share and formations this weekend. Maybe this offense will be retooled in such a way that one of these talented options is in an advantageous spot with Willis taking snaps.

Maybe.

Even if you believe this occurs, you’re taking this week off to evaluate.

Tight Ends

Luke Musgrave: It was Tucker Kraft who assumed the TE1 role in this offense last week (55-15 snap edge over Musgrave, 30-8 in routes run), and that is enough for me say that neither of these two is worth rostering at the moment, let alone starting.

In an offense that features four receivers that will earn looks on a consistent basis, the upside simply isn’t there to gamble on a tight end committee. Jonnu Smith and Mike Gesicki are among the available tight ends who have a strong role in an offense with more upside.

You’re now streaming the position and stuck in the world of evaluating these matchups on a weekly basis.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

• Spread: Jets -3.5
• Total: 40.5
• Jets implied points: 22
• Titans implied points: 18.5

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers: I thought Rodgers looked rusty in his return to the field outside of one drive, but not to such a level that I’m writing him off as a viable option with time.

With time.

We aren’t there yet. When pressured, the future Hall of Famer recorded negative-1.3 fantasy points. I think that will come back with time, but I need to see it before betting on it. The Titans don’t generate much pressure at all (third-lowest rate last season), so maybe this is the week in which vintage Rodgers makes an appearance.

The quarterback position is deep enough that I’d rather be a week late than a week early. If you’ve got an itch to scratch when it comes to playing Rodgers, throw a DFS lineup out there with him and Wilson. Tennessee allowed the sixth-most yards per drive in 2023, and I could certainly see this being a decent volume spot for Gang Green if Will Levis can’t sustain drives.

With the Patriots on deck next Thursday, there’s no real edge in adding Rodgers now in an effort to beat the rush. I’ll have GPP exposure and call it a week.

Will Levis: Nick Holz took over this offense after spending time with the Jaguars, the thought being that he’d unlock a version of this offense that otherwise wasn’t going to be explored.

That wasn’t evident in Week 1 (the opening script saw nothing but RB/TE touches through six plays), as Levis averaged under 4.0 yards per pass with more interceptions than touchdowns against the Bears. It was a poor Levis decision that resulted in the go-ahead pick-six with under eight minutes left, proof that the second-year QB is still a ways away from mattering.

This organization has invested in trying to make this pass game work and, with enough effort, they are likely to hit for a big return at some point. That time, however, is not this week — not in a tough matchup without a fully healthy DeAndre Hopkins. Levis isn’t a fantasy option anywhere this week.

Running Backs

Breece Hall: There is a learning curve to be expected in terms of getting comfortable in the cadence of a Rodgers offense. He carried 10 times in the first half against the 49ers on Monday night and didn’t pick up more than five yards on any of them.

The beauty in an elite back like this is that he doesn’t have a single point of failure. Hall posted a 28.6% target share when Rodgers was under center, and that is what has me investing with even more confidence moving forward than entering the season. The former Packer thrives when comfortable, and it’s clear that he, not surprisingly, has identified Hall and Garrett Wilson as his go-to options.

Rodgers didn’t shy away from Hall after the lost fumble, a great sign when it comes to trying to project the usage in New York moving forward. I entered this season with the thought that Hall could reach 2,000 scrimmage yards; while he is now behind that pace, I’m not backing off of that prediction.

Tony Pollard: This preseason, you fell into one of two buckets, and it almost entirely depends on how much Pollard exposure you had last season.

1. Pollard was limping his way through the season
2. Pollard is destined to be a part-time back

One week into his Titans career, those who gambled on Pollard are happy. Last week, he touched the ball 19 times for 94 yards and a score against a good Bears defense. He was given the first crack to lead this backfield (he had seven of eight carries in the first quarter and Treylon Burks had the other) and rewarded the coaching staff with an early score.

For the game, he was on the field for 62.3% of offensive snaps, a rate that moved up to 76.9% when just evaluating first downs. It seems clear that the Titans like Tyjae Spears in a complementary role. This gives Pollard RB2 potential if he can continue to be efficient. He falls just outside of that range in this tough matchup, but he’s the running back in this backfield that carries meaningful upside.

Tyjae Spears: Am I getting Jaylen Warren vibes from Spears? We want him to be given more work, but the Titans are actively clipping his wings for our purposes. He had just eight touches last week and was pigeon-holed – he played 92.9% of third-down snaps (Pollard: 14.3%), but that was essentially his entire role.

He remains very rosterable because the skill is evident and he’s only an injury away from 16-18 touches. There is hope in Spears’ profile — hope that is going to be sitting on your bench until we have a reason to think that Tennessee wants to unleash him.

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson: We spent all summer wondering if Wilson can be Davante Adams to Rodgers, and I left the Week 1 loss more confident in that being plausible. He had four grabs for 46 yards on New York’s first scoring drive of the season – his role as the alpha is as safe as any in the league, and that’s something I want to bet on as his quarterback works back into form.

You paid up for the potential and, much like Hall, I think you’re going to be happy with that decision when all is said and done. The Titans’ pass defense isn’t one that scares me, and it couldn’t stop Keenan Allen from earning 37.9% of the targets last week. Wilson was fine last week (11 targets earned), and I’m expecting even more this weekend.

Mike Williams: We came out of the preseason assuming that the Jets would ease Williams back from his ACL tear the way they did Hall last season, but what we saw on Monday night was a bit extreme.

Williams ran six routes; given Allen Lazard’s success, I’m worried about my Williams shares. From a process standpoint, nothing has changed on my end. I still believe this offense will have the capacity to support a second pass catcher, but my confidence in who that player is is in shambles.

Rookie Malachi Corely didn’t run a route in his NFL debut while Xavier Gipson was the third option (after Wilson and the aforementioned Lazard). For right now, there isn’t a WR2 in Gotham that needs to be rostered – but there will be. Check back next week for updated usage stats, as I’m going to look to get ahead of my competition in adding whoever is angling toward that role, and I’ll help you do the same!

DeAndre Hopkins: The knee injury Hopkins suffered this summer was originally projected to result in missed time, but that got walked back as the regular season approached. He was active for Week 1, but you may not have been aware of it until he appeared in the box score late in the game.

The veteran ran just nine routes and, like Williams for the Jets, seems destined to be worked in slowly. Unlike Williams, however, I’m not confident in the quality of targets he’ll be earning when at full strength.

Hopkins is worthy of a roster spot because we know that this offense wants to open up and that, outside of Calvin Ridley, there isn’t much in the way of target competition. Hopkins’ profile doesn’t come preloaded with the upside that you assume when you read his name; be careful in assuming that he is a Flex option, even after we see his snaps extended.

Calvin Ridley: Week 1 was the Levis-iest Levis game that a Levis receiver ever did have for Ridley.

There’s the Puka Nacua path, before getting hurt, from Week 1 that can net 8-9 fantasy points (catch all four targets with 17 total air yards). And then there’s how a Levis target gets there.

• 7 targets
• 160 air yards
• 8.0 PPR points

There were only four instances last season in which a player reached 160 air yards on no more than seven looks, and it’s not exactly a list of options that fantasy managers go out of their way to play: Courtland Sutton, Christian Watson, Alec Pierce, and Jalin Hyatt.

With Hopkins at less than full strength, the target count could remain tempting, but you need to be aware that there is an incredibly wide range of outcomes, especially against a strong defense in what projects as a low-possession game.

Hopkins is only going to get healthier, and I think there’s a better chance that Ridley sees his target count dip in a significant way than his aDOT declines and gives him the ability to be a reliable option.

He’s not a top-35 receiver for me. I’d rather take a deep threat in an offense I trust more (Rashid Shaheed) or even a fill-in option like Demarcus Robinson.

Tyler Boyd: The veteran receiver ran a route on 89.5% of Levis’ dropbacks, and if the second-year quarterback develops, there’s a world in which Boyd can own the short-yardage role in a PPR-viable sort of way.

At the moment, however, that role is seemingly avoided like the plague, and there is no room for 3.6 yards per target on any roster. If this situation changes, we can adapt to it – there’s no reason to hold and hope.

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin: Is there a world in which Rodgers rounds into form and Conklin is a threat to score? Sure. But I’m willing to be a week (or two or three) late in assuming that as a punt DFS play.

Conklin is a physical option who has shown the ability to sit down in space – it’s a boring skill set, but if Rodgers has this offense humming, there may be scoring equity to chase with time.

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings

• Spread: 49ers -6
• Total: 45
• 49ers implied points: 25.5
• Vikings implied points: 19.5

Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy: With Christian McCaffrey banged up, Purdy is going to take on a greater role, and that lands him as my QB12 this week. We saw his aDOT rise last week (9.7 after posting an 8.2-yard mark last season), and Kyle Shanahan was in the lab scheming up quick-hitting routes down the field.

Purdy’s quick release rate:

• 2023: 64% of throws
• Week 1: 75.9% of throws

The Vikings were a vulnerable defense last season, and I’m not pivoting off of that train of thought just because they handled the Giants last week. I’ll trust Shanahan in a good spot with Brandon Aiyuk working his way into playing shape – Purdy isn’t likely to post a huge total this week, but he’s as good a bet for 15-20 points as anyone in this tier of the rankings; that’s good enough.

Sam Darnold: We have an extended sample size of Darnold being a below-average quarterback. If you want to throw that out because he opened 12-for-12 for 145 yards and a touchdown against one of the worst teams in the league, go ahead.

I’m not there yet. We can have a different discussion in this space next week if he torches the 49ers. In two-QB leagues, I have Daniel Jones ranked higher thanks to his rushing ability and the near inevitability that the Commanders cough up at least one chunk play.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey: Adam Schefter suggested that CMC could miss a second consecutive game, giving us something that we didn’t have last week – time to adjust. Jordan Mason was among the top pickups last week, and while he doesn’t walk into McCaffrey’s ranking, he is a starter.

If you roster McCaffrey, you need to not only track his official status for this week but also all of the talk about his recovery. What made him the clear 1.01 in drafts this summer was his role/talent combination. The skill set will return whenever CMC is deemed to be healthy, but if Mason repeats his Week 1 performance, it’s fair to adjust touch expectations.

Stay tuned. We will be tracking all of the information and projections as reports come rolling in.

Jordan Mason: McCaffrey was a late scratch on Monday (to us at least, Mason implied that he knew he’d be featured entering the weekend), and Mason rewarded savvy fantasy managers with an RB5 finish.

The raw counting numbers are one thing, but if you’ve been reading my content, you know that I hardly look at the final results. I prefer to evaluate how the player got to his numbers; in Mason’s case, I’m buying. His production against the Jets was 21.7% over expectation, and he ranked third among running backs (over 15 carries) in our custom elusive rating.

Nothing Mason did last week looks out of place on the surface. He did say in the postgame that he wasn’t sure how McCaffrey handles this role for four straight months, opening the door to speculation about whether he will again assume elite usage this week.

That notion along with the matchup (the Vikings allowed under a foot per carry before contact to running backs last week, third best) dragged Mason down to the average RB2 tier in my rankings, but he remains a fine bet. When it comes to evaluating some of the Week 1 RB breakouts in Rhamondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard, I’d rather start Mason due to the stability of his offensive environment.

Aaron Jones: Jones and Mason rank in the same tier for me this week. In his Vikings debut, Jones played the majority of snaps and rewarded his new team by producing 54.3% over expectation (2023: 12.7% below expectation).

We saw Jones thrive in Week 1 last season too, so let’s not get out of control. He drew a plus-matchup, and with Darnold opening his season as efficiently as anyone, the stage was set. I think his best days are behind him and am not willing to admit that we were wrong in our offseason evaluation of this offense.

As skeptical as I am, Jones’ touch count projects favorably enough to make him a low-end RB2 in this difficult spot.

Ty Chandler: He may have only played 39.2% of the snaps last week, but with 11 touches (three targets), Chandler did enough to solidify himself as a stash. Stand-alone value with a healthy Jones isn’t too likely (though it’s not impossible) – he’s more of a cheap bet against Jones staying on the field for this entire season.

The lead role in this offense isn’t something I am chasing in a significant way. In other words, I’ll punt on Chandler should an immediate option (à la Mason last week) open up. That said, I’m not cutting ties with him just to add another lottery ticket: I’ll stick tight with my bet against Jones and let the chips fall where they may.

Wide Receivers

Brandon Aiyuk: After his summer hold-in, Aiyuk looked less than sharp on Monday night and failed to haul in a pass in the back of the end zone. Before the contract situation this summer, I had him labeled as San Francisco’s clear-cut WR1 and a top-10 option at the position.

Am I standing by that? You better well believe it, but that’s a ranking for the season as a whole. For this week, with the health of CMC being what it is and Deebo Samuel Sr. positioned perfectly to assume elite usage, Aiyuk falls not only behind his teammate but on the fringe of my top 15.

If you want to buy on Aiyuk, the next seven days might be the best window you get this season.

Deebo Samuel Sr.: My concerns around Samuel this preseason focused on the consistency (or lack thereof) in his role. Aiyuk has better receiving numbers across the board from Purdy, making Samuel a liability when this roster is at full strength.

That, however, clearly isn’t the case. Given the state of this offense, there’s no excuse to not label Samuel as a game-breaker. Even with Mason running wild last week, he got eight carries (the first time in 11 months he was handed the ball 5+ times), and that more than negates any worries I have about his efficiency as a receiver.

You’re playing every 49er starter you have this week, but if forced to pick, Samuel is my favorite and the one who has my eye on the DFS streets.

Justin Jefferson: The 44-yard dime from Darnold was great to see, and while the floor/ceiling combination isn’t going to be what it was under Kirk Cousins, it’s possible that I didn’t give his talent enough credit when ranking him outside of the top tier at the position this summer.

Jefferson saw his yards per route dip by 22% in Week 1 from his rate in 2023, but that was to be expected. If Darnold can put this team in a scoring position consistently, his top receiver will likely return Round 1 value. I need to see it against a better defense than the Giants, but I was encouraged by what I saw last week.

Jordan Addison: An ankle injury ended Addison’s Week 1 early, and while he’s a talented prospect, I have no interest in him this season. As a rookie, 45% of his PPR fantasy points came on touchdown receptions, a number that I’m regressing in a major way in a less advantageous offensive setup.

There likely isn’t a better receiver on your waiver wire, but Addison, even if deemed healthy, doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near your lineup.

Tight Ends

George Kittle: This is just your friendly neighborhood fantasy analyst reminding you that if you drafted Kittle this summer it was with the understanding that you’d play him every week. You signed up to take the absolutely elite with the mind-numbingly average.

Over his past 17 games, Kittle has failed to clear the eight points he scored last week eight times and soared over 15 points seven times. You know what you signed up for; you can’t complain when it plays out exactly how we projected.

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots

• Spread: Seahawks -3.5
• Total: 38
• Seahawks implied points: 20.8
• Patriots implied points: 17.3

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith: Smith provided one of the more unique plays of the weekend, bailing fantasy managers out in the process.

The 30/30 club for Geno Smith

QBs since 2000 with a 30+ yard TD run at 30+ years of age:

Today: Geno Smith
2020, W16: Ryan Tannehill
2012, W11: Byron Leftwich
2007, W16: Donovan McNabb

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) September 8, 2024

Smith has proven the ability to be efficient, so if more responsibilities are put on his plate by way of a Kenneth Walker III injury, my projection will come in hotter for him than normal. That optimism, however, fades away this week due to the matchup.

New England looked like a top-five defense last week, and given the structure of their offense, they are going to enter every week with the intent to shorten games.

There may be weeks to target Smith in deep formats or a DFS contest, but this is not one of those weeks.

Jacoby Brissett: I had little confidence in Brissett leading a viable offense in the first place, and he did nothing in Week 1 to change my opinion. He finished Week 1 ranked 25th in passer rating, and with low aggression numbers across the board, I’m not sure a perfect day from him would yield big-time fantasy numbers.

This summer, we wanted him to hone in on one receiver to pay off sleeper calls – he can’t even do that right (his first five completions went to five different players last weekend in the upset win over the Bengals).

If you can purge your roster of all Patriots, I would.

Running Backs

Kenneth Walker III: Walker got his hands on the ball 22 times during the win over the Broncos last week and showcased his ability to make plays with the ball in his hands (109 yards and a touchdown, with another score that was taken off the board due to a DK Metcalf hold).

Walker is a poor man’s Saquon Barkley. That may feel aggressive, but I really do believe that is the sort of upside that is in this profile. Assuming he is “good” as he self-reported after leaving Week 1 early with an abdomen injury, the usage we saw him handle last week demands he be locked into your lineups.

Zach Charbonnet: He flashed on a few of his touches last week, but I think talk of him holding stand-alone value when Walker is active needs to be dismissed. Charbonnet failed to gain yardage on four of his carries in the season opener, the same number as Walker despite having 12 fewer attempts.

His second-round pedigree makes him one of the top five handcuffs in our game, and as long as you acknowledge that as his role on your team, he’s a fine stash.

Rhamondre Stevenson: Everything played in Stevenson’s favor last week. His Patriots were competitive throughout, ensuring a positive game script against a below-average defense, and he was at full strength (79.7% snap share). With the stars aligning, he racked up 126 yards and a touchdown – a production level that potentially came on your bench.

There’s a chance he takes advantage of the bellcow role again this week against a Seahawks defense that allowed the fourth most points per drive a season ago (2.2). If he produces top-20 numbers this week, he’ll be the most obvious sell-high candidate in the sport.

“Sell high” gets misunderstood sometimes. Most think the manager with the player is in a position of power and can dictate terms. In theory, that’s great, but it rarely works in practice. In my experience with these sell-high opportunities, one manager aims too high, the other too low, and the deal falls apart.

Should Stevenson put numbers on the board Sunday, I’m moving him to the highest bidder, even if that ends up being at a price below what his two-week stats suggest is reasonable. After this week, the Pats, a team I had projected for under five wins this season, get the Jets and 49ers. After that, they get a pair of offenses (Dolphins and Texans) that I don’t think they have a prayer at keeping up with, bringing in a low floor for Stevenson.

Go ahead and start Stevenson as a low-end RB2/Flex option this week. As he is putting points on the board, start crafting your trade offers – you’ll want to have some in your pocket ahead of time as you try to flip this asset before New England kicks off Week 3 on Thursday night.

Wide Receivers

DK Metcalf: Seattle’s WR1 fell short of expectations, and the red flags are certainly there. I don’t doubt that the physical ability is still very much there, but is he in a position to turn those gifts into fantasy points?

Their game with the Broncos was a one-score game for roughly 80% of the minutes, and the Seahawks told us what they thought of their passing game – they finished with eight more rushes than passes. Plain and simple, that doesn’t happen in 2024 if you’re confident in your quarterback.

Metcalf saw only four passes thrown his way and recorded the fourth-lowest expected PPR point total of his career. We’ve seen his targets per route trend down since Smith took over this offense, and they get less comfortable with him in the slot every season, something that leads to fewer layup targets and a greater reliance on splash plays.

That’s a dangerous game to play. I have him in the Amari Cooper range of my rankings this week (low-end WR2), and I think that is where he is likely to live as the WR1 in a passing offense I don’t trust.

Against a stingy Patriots defense, I don’t think this is an explosive bounce-back spot. Due to his size and athleticism, a big game, at some point, is borderline inevitable, and when we get that, I’m selling Metcalf to the highest bidder.

Jaxon Smith-Nijgba: Catching two passes for 19 yards isn’t exactly the start to a Year 2 breakout that we were hoping for, but Smith-Njigba did run 25% more routes than Tyler Lockett.

Now, the veteran out-produced him in a major way, but if this is going to be a conservative offense, I still think JSN can grow into a PPR Flex player.

aDOT since 2023:

• Metcalf: 12.9 yards
• Lockett: 10.9 yards
• Smith-Njigba: 6.1 yards

Metcalf and Lockett will lead this receiver room in 20+ point games, but I expect Smith-Njigba to be competitive in the number of usable weeks by way of a consistently efficient role.

Exciting? Probably not. The type of player that you can use as glue in November as you battle byes and injuries? I still think so.

Tyler Lockett: I was fully out on Lockett this offseason, and while I’m not yet bending the knee, the efficiency concerns were off base last week.

The veteran hauled in six of seven targets and was the focal point of this limited passing game, but can we really count on that usage being sustained?

Against Denver, Lockett was targeted once every 3.3 routes, a jump from 7.0 a season ago. If that sticks, I’m going to be dead wrong and Lockett will be the best fantasy receiver on his team.

I remain skeptical. I’m going to need more than a four-quarter sample to sell me on Lockett as a lineup-worthy player.

DeMario Douglas and Ja’Lynn Polk: I understand why these two were highlighted as late-round PPR sleepers by some, but can we stop it with that?

On Sunday, the Pats threw the ball 24 times for 121 yards. K.J. Osborn led this team in targets with six while Austin Hooper’s 31 receiving yards paced New England. These two receivers aren’t the type to rack up splash plays and this offense has no desire to operate with tempo.

Dynasty discussions are a different discussion for Polk. But in redraft, you can feel fine about chasing upside elsewhere.

Tight Ends

Noah Fant: Betting on the tight end in Seattle is a little too thin for me until Smith really shows well for himself, but being targeted on 20% of his Week 1 routes is a start. Fant hasn’t scored since Christmas Eve of 2022, making volume a requirement for him to work his way into DFS consideration.

I don’t think there’s much here without a receiver injury, but I’m at least keeping an eye on him. If the targets per route remain palatable, I could see Fant being a midseason streamer if a larger role opens up by way of injury.

Hunter Henry: As mentioned, I’m not rostering any Patriot pass catcher right now, and, to be honest, I don’t see that changing any time soon. Having said that, Henry did post an 8.7 aDOT last week and his athletic profile is still there.

There is nothing actionable to do at the moment, but with that sort of usage, the Patriots are acknowledging that there is some field-stretching potential, and that’ll make Henry a player to reevaluate when/if Drake Maye takes over this offense.

New York Giants at Washington Commanders

• Spread: Commanders -1.5
• Total: 44
• Giants implied points: 21.3
• Commanders implied points: 22.8

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones: From a narrative standpoint, this is a fun one, but from a “how does it impact my matchup” point of view, I really hope this doesn’t matter for you in any capacity.

Last week, Mr. Dimes averaged 0.10 fantasy points per opportunity (pass or rush attempt) against the Vikings. Only once was a QB worse than that on 40+ opportunities last season, and it was Dorian Thompson-Robinson against the Ravens. That is where things stand with Jones these days – but if ever there was a defense that could make sure a player look viable for 60 minutes, it’s the Commanders.

But use up all of your excitement for this matchup – the Giants get these Commanders again and the Panthers in early November. We will get an answer to what wins out in a bad vs. bad matchup, and all data points are valuable.

Jayden Daniels: In a perfect world, we see Daniels attack down the field with his arm a bit more in his second start (Week 1: 5.2 aDOT), but the rushing floor seems to be there, and that’s how he works his way into my top 12 again this week.

This kid is a born competitor, and while I’m not going to use that narrative, I do think he benefits this week from what should be a competitive game, something neither of these teams will get to say very often.

It’s not perfect, but we are looking at a rare athlete with recklessness in his profile. That’s a concern for Commanders fans, but that’s the blueprint for success in any given week for fantasy managers.

Running Backs

Devin Singletary: If a tree falls in a forest, but no one is around to hear it, did it make a sound?

If a running back for the Giants plays 70.6% of the snaps and handles 10 of 14 running back carries but didn’t impact fantasy lineups, did he make an impact?

These are the types of questions that keep me up at night. The lead role is Singletary’s, though five different Giants had a carry, and maybe that’s all you need when facing a Commanders defense that coughed up a league-high 2.56 points per drive a season ago.

I can’t get there with confidence. Singletary checks in as my RB30, and that’s about as high as I can justify putting him. I don’t trust him, but more importantly, I don’t trust this offense. If he were to go nuts and make my ranking look foolish, I’d be working the phone lines in an effort to move him for anyone with a role.

In that hypothetical, assuming health, I’d consider a package for any Chargers, Titans, or Bengals running back in exchange for Singletary. Play him if you can’t stand benching “at Washington,” but understand that the path to success for New York’s lead back this season isn’t a clear one.

Brian Robinson Jr.: This backfield isn’t a committee. The overall snap shares were similar, but break it down further and there is only one answer as to which running back in Washington you want sniffing your lineup.

Snap share between the 30s:

• Robinson: 50%
• Ekeler: 50%

Snap share inside the 30:

• Robinson: 77.8%
• Ekeler: 33.3%

Robinson has made nice skill set strides up to this point in his career and is a legitimate threat as both a between-the-tackles runner and a receiver in space. He gave fantasy managers 15.2% more production given his area of touches than the average back last season, and that rate was 24.2% in the Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers.

I think it’s fairly safe to assign Robinson a 15-20 opportunity projection with decent scoring equity weekly – that’s going to land him in your fantasy lineups consistently.

Austin Ekeler: The veteran played 50% of the snaps last week, and while he only carried the rock twice, he turned his four targets into 52 yards.

Ekeler is rosterable not because I think he has much of a chance to truly challenge Robinson for work but because this is an offense led by a sporadic rookie that could lean on a veteran presence by his side in the short passing game.

I think we will see plenty of 6-10 touch games from Ekeler this season but without much in the way of valuable opportunities, thus keeping him from holding stand-alone value.

Wide Receivers

Malik Nabers: During the preseason it was clear that the Giants were well aware of Nabers’ potential, and they wasted no time in carrying that game plan over to the regular season as the rookie was targeted with four of Jones’ first eight targets.

He, however, only saw three targets the rest of the way as Wan’Dale Robinson commanded a 31.6% target share for some reason. No, I don’t think that’s the least bit sticky, but it’s annoying. Robinson and Darius Slayton picked up 37.6% of New York’s receiving yards in the loss to the Vikings, a disturbing outcome for those all aboard the Nabers hype train.

Like fellow rookie Marvin Harrison Jr., better days are ahead. The Giants aren’t going anywhere this season, giving them every reason to see what their star pupil can do. Expecting consistency from Nabers is a leap I’m not ready to make, but he should be viewed as a pretty easy player to start in the friendliest of matchups.

Terry McLaurin: I’m not sounding the alarm just yet, but I certainly didn’t expect a four-target, 17-yard day from McLaurin against a gettable Buccaneers secondary in Week 1.

I understand that there will be peaks and valleys with a rookie quarterback taking over, but the lack of opportunities is what scares me. In Chicago, Caleb Williams struggled, but at least he struggled while targeting his top options. My hope is that we see a better effort from Daniels the passer in his second start, this one coming in an even friendlier matchup (Sam Darnold opened last week with 12 straight completions and a score against these G-men).

McLaurin remains inside my top 30 receivers for this week, ranking alongside Williams’ top two targets in Chicago.

Tight Ends

This isn’t a game I’m overextending to get exposure to, and that very much carries over to the tight end position. Neither the quality nor quantity of throws are a given for either team, so why would I get cute and try to uncover a TE sleeper?

Risk analysis. Fantasy football isn’t a game of eliminating risk altogether but rather one that rewards those who take responsible shots when the time calls. There’s no need to do that in this spot.

Los Angeles Chargers at Carolina Panthers

• Spread: Chargers -6.5
• Total: 38.5
• Chargers implied points: 22.5
• Panthers implied points: 16

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert: The Chargers beat the Raiders into submission during Jim Harbaugh’s debut for the franchise, and while that is great for the fanbase, it’s not the path for Herbert to matter in standard fantasy leagues.

In a fine matchup, Herbert threw just one touchdown pass and averaged 5.5 yards per pass. That’s not going to cut it.

Since the beginning of last season, the Panthers have had a bottom-10 rush defense, and that has me projecting a similar script to what we saw from the Bolts last week.

I was impressed with Ladd McConkey’s first game, but if this is going to be a low-volume passing attack that lacks big play potential, Herbert’s ceiling doesn’t rank among the top 20 at the position.

The performance Herbert put on film last week ranked 25th by our custom PFN metrics. He’s just not going to be put in a position to produce much fruit for us.

Bryce Young: Young was the only quarterback to receive a failing grade in our internal QB Insights grading system last season, and a 13-for-30 2024 debut with no scores and two interceptions didn’t exactly back us off of that claim.

The late rushing touchdown in garbage time put a few fantasy points on the board, but Young was worth next to nothing, even in two-QB leagues, and his stat line actually overestimated how effective he was.

This team tried to insulate Young with options, but the supporting cast might never have been the problem.

Running Backs

J.K. Dobbins: Was there a more impressive player in Week 1 than Dobbins? He became the third Chargers back this millennium to have multiple carries of 45+ yards in a single game (LaDainian Tomlinson and Michael Turner) and was running so hard that he earned a 59.3% snap share in a backfield that was believed to be Gus Edwards’ to open the season.

Harbaugh may not be a fantasy-friendly head coach, but he did tell us heading into last week that he’d ride the hot hand in the running game and he stayed true to that.

Of course, there are two sides to that coin. What happens when the big plays don’t happen?

Dobbins has played 25 games in his 4+ seasons as a pro, and that creates reasonable doubt when it comes to evaluating his long-term value.

But that’s not what this article is about. The touch count is never going to be elite, but the “hot hand” approach suggests that we should get another 12-15 touch afternoon in a good spot this week, and that lands Dobbins as a RB2 for me that I’m comfortable plugging in.

Selling Dobbins is an easy suggestion, but is anyone buying given his résumé? Enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts. Wins this time of year mean just as much as those in November when it comes to qualifying for the postseason.

Gus Edwards: We knew Edwards’ role was going to be thin and straightforward – pray for scoring chances.

Personally, that’s not a profile I’m comfortable chasing. If I am going to go that direction, it’s going to be in the form of an Ezekiel Elliott type who plays for an elite offense and has some versatility in his profile. That’s not what Edwards brings to the table, and with Dobbins producing at the level he did in Week 1, what is the touch upside here?

Despite all of the success Dobbins experienced last Sunday, Edwards still did have the edge in red-zone touches. He’s not a player you give a second thought to in September – he’s a desperation play late in the season.

Edwards remains a roster-worthy player in most formats, even with very little in the way of short-term expectations.

Chuba Hubbard: A full-time, featured role in this offense might not be fantasy viable, making any sniff of a committee damning at the highest of levels.

Week 1 snap share:

• Hubbard: 54.5%
• Miles Sanders: 36.4%
• Mike Boone: 9.1%

Together, that trio had 15 touches, and due to this offense’s inability to move the ball, their total fantasy point expectancy last week was just 9.9 PPR points.

If Dave Canales is going to sprinkle pixie dust on this offense — are we sure he has that power? Tampa Bay looked just fine last week in his absence – maybe Jonathon Brooks can provide this backfield with value down the stretch.

Until we get proof of that, there’s no reason to toy with any skill position player in this offense. And if you wanted to cut ties with Hubbard based on your specific waiver wire, I’m not standing in your way.

Wide Receivers

Joshua Palmer: Davante Adams can work in Vegas because of an elite target share while three Texans carry lineup value due to the quality of targets we project them to see. There are different ways to cash points at the fantasy window, but mixing the negatives of those mentioned situations isn’t going to cut it.

Routes + targets in Week 1:

• Palmer: 31
• Ladd McConkey: 29
• Quentin Johnston: 28
• Hayden Hurst: 25

I like Palmer’s 6’1” frame, and with just his 25th birthday approaching, his best football is pretty clearly ahead of him.

I don’t doubt that Palmer he will have some productive days at the office (he’s a talented player in an offense with a franchise QB), but you’re overconfident in your ability to forecast if you think you can nail the right week to invest.

I expect the Chargers to be playing with a lead this weekend, and that’s not the game script that has me interested in any capacity in these receivers.

Ladd McConkey: This second-round pick has something to him. He’s got juice, and the touchdown was impressive, but asking McConkey to get you double-digit points on a consistent basis in this environment is asking too much.

McConkey is my pick to lead this receiver room in a total of usable weeks (targeted on 31.8% of his routes and a 5.3 aDOT, lowest among Chargers receivers), though I have concerns about what his realistic ceiling looks like. That makes plugging him into starting lineups very difficult right now.

Diontae Johnson: Johnson is East Coast McConkey. That’s not meant to be disrespectful to the veteran — I view his skill set as superior, but he’s facing an uphill battle when it comes to the quarterback situation.

Johnson ran two fewer routes but earned two more targets than Adam Thielen in his Carolina debut. That has me firm in my belief that he’s the WR1 in the Panthers’ offense. Of course, the value of that title is very much a question.

Six times. In just six games last season a Panthers receiver reached 10 PPR fantasy points. There isn’t nearly enough juice to squeeze from this offense in any capacity at the moment. I’m open to the idea of this unit improving with time and maybe, maybe, landing Johnson on PPR Flex radars with time.

But not right now. There are 31 other offenses you can invest in, and I’d recommend you take that approach. Just one-third of Johnson’s snaps came in the slot last season, a further complicating factor in his floor case (Thielen: 69% slot) as those are where even the bad offenses can be efficient.

Canales’ résumé requires us to keep Johnson rostered from a process standpoint, but I’d be lying if I said that I’m doing so with much confidence.

Tight Ends

I’m not in a hurry to bet on either of these offenses in any capacity, so there’s no reason to chase targets here. Teams like the Packers (when Love is healthy), the Dolphins, or the Eagles are worth getting creative with bending numbers or speculating on small samples.

Neither of these teams lives on that street. Or in that zip code. Or in that country.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

• Spread: Jaguars -3
• Total: 41.5
• Browns implied points: 19.3
• Jaguars implied points: 22.3

Quarterbacks

Deshaun Watson: In our internal QB grading system, six signal-callers earned a ‘D’ or worse in Week 1 – four were first- or second-year players, one was Daniel Jones, and the other was Watson.

Watson averaged under 3.8 yards per pass against a Cowboys defense that was without Daron Bland in a game where Cleveland was playing from behind for 13 of 14 drives. I didn’t enter last week thinking that he’d be consistent from drive to drive, but I did think we’d get some glimpses of potential through the air. There were essentially none.

David Njoku left the game banged up (it didn’t stop him from leading the team in receiving yards) and Amari Cooper had nearly as many empty targets as he had yards. Watson showed some of the mobility that made him a fantasy asset back in the day (five carries for 39 yards), though his upside in that department isn’t nearly enough to overcome his limitations as a passer.

The Jags’ defense was impressive, and I’m much more interested in playing their defense against Watson in any format than I would be the inverse.

Trevor Lawrence: His touchdown to Brian Thomas Jr. was art. From anticipation to timing to trusting a new weapon – after that pass, I was ready to hop back on the Lawrence bandwagon and drive him to the top 15 at the position.

And then halftime happened. Lawrence was the seventh-highest-scoring fantasy QB in second halves last season. He completed three passes over the final 30 minutes of Week 1.

What?

Was the idea to salt away the game? To keep the Dolphins’ offense off the field by way of ball control? I suppose it’s possible, but if you’re sold on your quarterback being a game-changer, is that a strategy you deploy?

My answer would be no.

Lawrence did spread the ball around (five players saw three to four targets), and that was encouraging as it points to his willingness to truly make reads and take what the defense is giving him. Lawrence is also proving to be an aggressive passer when unleashed, another positive for his weekly upside.

Lawrence’s aDOT:

• Weeks 1-10, 2023: 8.2 yards
• Since: 9.7 yards

I’m much more interested in his receivers when it comes to cracking my lineup than I am in Lawrence himself. This is a tough matchup, and that is why he is barely inside my top 20 at the position.

Lawrence doesn’t need to be rostered in traditional one-QB leagues right now with a tough schedule through the back half of October, but I’m leaving a light on for him with the GB-PHI-MIN-DET run in Weeks 8-11, a stretch where 10 teams go on bye and you’ll likely need some depth.

Running Backs

Jerome Ford: Are we sure Ford is even an average NFL running back? Or is he Rachaad White with less stability under center?

In 2023, no qualified running back gained yardage at a lower rate than Ford, and his 69-yard, 18-touch performance against the Cowboys last week wasn’t exactly inspiring. In keeping with the White comparison, he’s doing enough to justify starting him – he played 72.9% of the snaps and is versatile enough to bail you out with six short-yardage receptions.

The touch count seems to be safe as long as Nick Chubb is on the shelf, and that lands him in the Flex discussion. But with rushing efficiency a long shot and limited scoring equity, I think there’s a better shot he finishes outside of the top 35 running backs this weekend than inside the top 20.

Travis Etienne Jr.: It’s going to take more than one game from Tank Bigsby to truly make me nervous about my Etienne shares, but Week 1 certainly wasn’t ideal.

Bigbsy started a few drives in the backfield, and when Etienne was on the field (68% snaps), his production wasn’t inspiring. Not only did he lose a fumble on the one-yard line (three lost fumbles last season), but he was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 attempt in the fourth quarter.

I entered this season with the hope that Etienne would flirt with being an RB1. After one week, he’s closer to the back end than the front end of my RB2 rankings. The dip in expectations is real, and Bigbsy is now a rosterable asset, but I do still think this is Etienne’s role. He carries a decent amount of upside in a game where Jacksonville is favored.

Wide Receivers

Amari Cooper: I think Cooper is a good player, but after seeing Watson struggle to the degree he did last weekend, what is the ceiling for any of his targets?

Against the Cowboys, Cooper turned nine targets into 16 yards. That’s embarrassing, and this Jaguars defense is better than you think. For me, Cooper projects similarly role-wise to Terry McLaurin, but the Commanders WR1 gets access to a better matchup and a quarterback with more chain-moving upside.

Cooper is currently my WR30, and I don’t even feel good about it.

Jerry Jeudy: The touchdown was good to see in his Cleveland debut, but if I’m not sold on Cooper being a locked-in starter, how can I express any optimism in a distant WR2? The projected absence of David Njoku, in theory, opens up targets; if you, like Vegas, think the Jaguars win this game, maybe you can squint and justify throwing him into a DFS lineup as a contrarian play.

I won’t be doing that. Neither will most of the field. It’s not a high-percentage play, but sometimes those are the paths to victory, especially from an underdog.

Christian Kirk: From a less proven receiver, I’d worry about him posting a 25% catch rate while the rest of his teammates caught 73.3% of their looks, but Kirk is an established weapon to whom I still assign a high production floor, even after an underwhelming Week 1.

This, however, isn’t a get-right spot, and I’d rather chase the touchdown upside of his rookie teammate. The Browns forced a punt on the majority of opponent drives last season, the first defense to do that since the 2015 Texans, making them a brutal matchup for a receiver that needs volume.

Kirk is barely inside my top 40 at the position this week.

Brian Thomas Jr.: The rookie did what seemingly no Jaguar could do last season: walk the tightrope in the end zone. His first half was a thing of beauty, but like the rest of this offense, nothing was happening after halftime.

Ups and downs are to be expected, but I want to have him on my roster in the event that it all comes together with time. In his first NFL game, he perfectly executed a red-zone timing route and, on another play, forced Jalen Ramsey to tackle him to prevent a score (40-yard DPI). This kid is special, and I think he can work his way onto the Flex order in most formats sooner rather than later.

Gabe Davis: It’s officially fantasy football season when you’re getting excited about a Davis highlight. The former Bill was the recipient of Lawrence’s first pass of this season, and my Twitter feed filled up with “it’s going to be different this year” posts.

Tell me you haven’t rostered Davis before without telling me you haven’t rostered Davis before.

He went on to earn just two more looks for the rest of the afternoon – welcome to the full experience. He’s, at best, the fourth option in a passing game that has struggled to stay aggressive for four quarters during the Lawrence era. I don’t mind stashing Davis on your bench as a potential Hail Mary play in times of need, but at this point, there’s little he could do that would convince me to consider him a viable Flex play.

Tight Ends

David Njoku: Njoku is battling an ankle injury, and it doesn’t sound great. There isn’t a direct replacement to consider in Cleveland, so you’re looking at the Taysom Hills and Jonnu Smiths of the world to fill the void. If those options aren’t available, Mike Gesicki had a touchdown in his hands last week and is viewed essentially as a receiver – you could do worse than him in a game that has the potential to shootout.

Evan Engram: Coming off of the second-highest catch total season by a tight end in the history of the sport, Engram was targeted on 22.2% of his routes in the season opener against the Dolphins, not that much different than his 23.4% rate a season ago.

I’m happy to make that trade-off when you consider that his aDOT on Sunday was 50% higher than where it stood last season. Engram isn’t much of a threat to lead the position in scoring this season, but you could challenge the top tier in terms of the number of usable weeks – you’re locking him in every single week and feeling fine about it.

Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens

• Spread: Ravens -9.5
• Total: 41.5
• Raiders implied points: 16
• Ravens implied points: 25.5

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew II: I liked what I saw from the Mighty Mustache in defeat last week. He’s never going to make the game-breaking play, but four different players had a 20+ yard reception, and he completed 75.8% of his passes against the Chargers.

He’s nowhere near fantasy radars against a defense that made Patrick Mahomes look human at times last week and has extra time to prepare for this game, but I’m cautiously optimistic that he can support two fantasy pass catchers this season. That’s more than I would have said a week ago.

Lamar Jackson: The reigning MVP remains the focal point of this Todd Monken offense, and that gives him the upside to lead the position in scoring in any given week.

In the loss to the Chiefs last week, Jackson accumulated 57 opportunities (41 pass attempts and 16 rushes), the second-highest mark of his career. He was constantly on the move, and while we can argue if that’s what is best for the Ravens long-term, Jackson posting the 14th 100-yard rushing game of his career is music to the ears of fantasy managers.

There are multiple ways to read his usage as a passer.

On Thursday night, 63.4% of Jackson’s passes traveled less than 5 yards past the line of scrimmage, the second-highest rate of his career.

An optimist will suggest that those are high-percentage throws that provide a stable passing floor to complement the ceiling that comes from his athleticism. A pessimist will use a game like this as a crutch to say that despite his versatility, Jackson’s profile lacks upside. Jackson has never been a big rushing touchdown option, and if the chunk plays through the air aren’t going to happen, his “elite” status could be in question.

I fall more on the optimistic side – for now. Or, at the very least, for this week against a Raiders defense that was second-worst in terms of opponent YAC per reception in 2023. The bug I do want to put in your ear is that what happened in Week 1 was NOT part of the Baltimore script.

If it was, we would have seen quick-hitting passes in volume. That wasn’t the case. Jackson’s quick pass rate was just 51.2%, well below his career average of 58.5%.

If this offensive line is going to be a problem, there is more risk than meets the eye in this profile, but I’m not jumping to conclusions after one game against a very good defense.

Running Backs

Zamir White: Hand up if you had “Alexander Mattison 31-yard touchdown catch that includes hurdling a defender” on your Week 1 bingo card.

Yea, me neither. We were under no illusion that White was going to be this highly efficient runner, but we did think his volume would be safe. Now, I’m not so sure.

White opened the season with carries of zero, zero, and negative-one yard, inspiring nightmares about what we saw from a better runner in Josh Jacobs last season, the year following a 2,000-yard campaign.

I’m worried. Jacobs finished Week 1 53.7% below expectations in terms of fantasy point total, a number White nearly matched on Sunday (negative-48.7%). Factor in that he lost a fumble on his lone explosive run and that Mattison might be more of a threat than we assumed and the bottom is at serious risk of falling out.

White, Devin Singletary, and Jerome Ford are clumped at the back end of my Flex tier for this week; while I’m confident they all get their 15+ touches, I’m not sold any of them reach 15 fantasy points.

Derrick Henry: I thought we were done with this?

“Henry scored, but he was unable to find running room on a consistent basis and was part of 50/50 snap share.”

Was that a sentence I pulled from this article last year while he was in Tennessee, or was it something said about his Baltimore debut? The fact that you don’t know is a problem.

Henry found paydirt on the first drive of the season, but he was hardly heard from the rest of the way and finished going under all of his props. He didn’t even have a 10-yard rush.

Justice Hill held a 38-36 snap edge over Henry and a 28-15 edge in routes. Hill was essentially an older version of Tyjae Spears.

Now, don’t panic. Please don’t panic. Henry was able to produce as a Titan last season in this very role, and that was in an offense with far less potential than Baltimore’s.

I actually thought the Ravens were a little creative in trying to get Henry in space on shallow routes (negative-10 air yards on his two targets). His 15 routes run match the most he ran in a game last season. And if Jackson’s low aDOT game proves sticky, I still think it’s possible that we squeeze a little more value out of The King as a pass catcher than in years past.

As a heavy favorite, this is a beautiful bounce-back spot for Henry. I didn’t love the production we got in Week 1, but I’m still a ways away from pivoting off of optimistic preseason priors.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams: I maintain my belief that Minshew under center is the best-case scenario for Adams, and catching five of six targets in the season opener (10.3 aDOT) was a fine start.

Adams is considered an elite receiver by NFL standards, but in fantasy circles, he’s more of a strong WR1. The target share is safe, but as feared, the quality of those looks is going to fluctuate weekly. Adams’ floor is fine due to his volume, but a lack of a true ceiling is what keeps him out of my top 10 on a weekly basis.

Jakobi Meyers: I’m as much of a Meyers stan as anyone, and even I have to admit that playing him is thin. Adams is always going to command a high target count, and with Brock Bowers proving to very much be ready for the bright lights, Meyers is the third option in an offense that won’t always give us one viable fantasy starter through the air.

Meyers made a 33-yard grab last week in Los Angeles and narrowly missed a touchdown – if Adams or Bowers were to go down, he’d move onto my Flex radar, but until that is the case, he can sit patiently on the bench.

Zay Flowers: We’ve seemingly come around on Rashee Rice in the PPR WR1 conversation, and Flowers is similar to Rice. Yes, the per-target value isn’t the same from Jackson as Mahomes, but the Chiefs have talked about wanting to stretch the field while the Ravens spent most of Thursday night trying to set records for short pass count.

In the first half of the first game of the season, Flowers earned one-third of the Ravens’ targets, a rate that would have been considerably higher if not for not one, not two, not three, but four opportunities wiped away via penalty.

The burst, the YAC upside, and the offensive stability, Flowers checks every box you could ask for when it comes to a receiver without an elite physical profile, and he’s already moved into my “I’m starting him every week” tier at the position.

Even if you want to move forward with caution due to the limitations of this passing game, this isn’t the week to do it, as Vegas owned the lowest opponent average depth of target a season ago.

I don’t think Flowers will produce one of the 15 best games by a receiver this season, but I’d be surprised if he didn’t pay off your lineup loyalty in the vast majority of games this season – and for the foreseeable future.

Tight Ends

Brock Bowers: I loved what I saw from the rookie in his debut. The Raiders showed us this preseason that he’d be used as a weapon in a variety of ways – that proved true as he led the team in catches and receiving yards last weekend.

Bowers was on the field for 67.8% of snaps last week and nearly doubled up Michael Mayer in the routes department. This isn’t a committee situation; this is Bowers’ show, and that has him pushing for a top-10 ranking.

He has a chance to be the most valuable tight end in this game, and he should be started over veterans like Dallas Goedert and Pat Freiermuth with confidence, at the very least.

Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely: As good as the opener was on Thursday night, fantasy managers can’t help but be sidetracked by this tight end situation that is trending toward a battle.

Likely posted a 9-111-1 stat line against the Chiefs and missed another touchdown on the final play by less than an inch. The snaps (53-52 in favor of Andrews) and routes (38-35 Andrews) were illuminating, as they point to Todd Monken essentially admitting that two of his three most dangerous pass catchers are tight ends.

That’s the good for managers sweating Andrews’ (2-14-0 line at Kansas City) situation. He’s on the field and running routes in a potent offense. Great.

Not so great is his ability to get open.

Receptions per route run:

• 2021: 17.3%
• 2022: 16.7%
• 2023: 16.3%
• Week 1: 5.3%

No, I don’t think the rate he posted last week is going to stick, but it’s very possible that Andrews is turning into a version of George Kittle without the spike-game upside due to his threat for opportunities playing the same position.

I’m not buying the Week 11 cracked fibula as a limiting factor, and Andrews turned 29 years old seconds after the Week 1 loss ended, putting him on the back nine of the age curve but not exactly in a spot to occupy fantasy hospice.

That said, it’s clear that Likely has juice that Andrews does not. Heck, there might not be six tight ends in the league today that have that sort of explosive potential.

Last season, 24 tight ends averaged 20+ routes run per game. That’s a low bar to clear, and for his career, Likely is averaging 11.6 PPR points per game when reaching that threshold, which would have been good for TE8 in 2023.

I mentioned the Kittle comparison earlier, and I think the 49ers’ trio could give us a blueprint as to what to expect. And by “blueprint,” I mean a frustrating spot to be in for fantasy managers who thought they were avoiding a headache by selecting Andrews in the fourth round, 120+ picks ahead of Likely.

Last season, a year in which Brock Purdy posted one of the 10 most efficient quarterback seasons of all-time, the Deebo Samuel Sr./Brandon Aiyuk/George Kittle trio all reached double figures in PPR points just three times, the first occurrence coming in Week 10.

If you stole Likely late in drafts or splurged in FAAB, you’ve got an asset, but I’m not sure that either TE is going to be as consistent as Andrews was in years past.

I wish I had better news, but this is going to be a weekly headache.

I’d caution against rage-benching Andrews this week. The Raiders had the lowest opponent aDOT last season, and that might be the role Andrews is destined to fill, as his aDOT was 48.5% lower than Likely’s in the season opener. Given the varied skill sets, it seems fair to project something similar moving forward.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

• Spread: Cardinals -1.5
• Total: 49
• Rams implied points: 23.8
• Cardinals implied points: 25.3

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford: Say what you will about him being glued to the pocket, but Stafford just piles up yards and does so consistently. He has thrown for 315+ yards in four straight games (including the playoffs) for just the second time in his career, a streak I could easily see extending against a Cardinals defense that couldn’t make Josh Allen uncomfortable last weekend (25th in pressure rate).

The upside may not be elite without rushing potential and Nacua sidelined, but I feel better about his production floor than Joe Burrow, Caleb Williams, or Trevor Lawrence this week and that lands him as my QB14.

Kyler Murray: I was encouraged by what I saw from Murray on the ground (five carries for 57 yards), and that is enough for me to sell myself on him ranking as a top-10 option this week.

I think what we saw from this offense last week in terms of the passing game was to be expected. They drafted an alpha receiver while trying to encourage further growth from a budding star at the tight end position and embrace Murray’s natural creativity. That’s a lot of moving pieces to manage, and expecting them to look like a well-oiled machine in Week 1 was never fair.

Murray’s aDOT was just 6.4 yards in the loss to Buffalo and, for just the fifth time in his career, he failed to complete a deep pass (six attempts is at least moderately encouraging). The Lions gashed these Rams with Jameson Williams’ speed; if Arizona opens up its play-calling a bit more, I could see a world in which Murray finishes the week as a top-five performer.

You drafted him knowing that there could be some bumpy moments – I’m not pivoting off of my priors and remain confident that Murray will be a weekly option.

Running Backs

Kyren Williams: Who cares if he is on special teams? Williams recorded 21 touches last week in Detroit, and while the efficiency was lacking (54 yards), that level of volume is all we need to lock him into RB1 status moving forward.

With Puka Nacua on the shelf, a 20-touch mean projection is reasonable. I make the Rams a slight road favorite in this spot, and because these are my ranks, I’m going to use my betting line. Williams averaged 25.6 PPR PPG when favored last season (15.2 when an underdog). There should be no brain power wasted in terms of how to treat Williams weekly: Lock him in and consider him for a pay-up in DFS builds.

James Conner: Conner run, Conner catch, Conner catch, Conner run, Conner run, Conner run, Conner run.

That was how the Cardinals opened their season. They are committed to Conner, with the veteran coming off of a career year; while I love the sentiment here, the production wasn’t what I had hoped to see.

In 2023, Conner gained at least five yards on 38.5% of his carries, an elite rate that spiked with his ability to hit holes fast. That rate was a surprise given the number of NFL reps he has taken, and my fear is that it’s time to pay the piper. Last week, just 6.3% of his attempts picked up a handful of yards, an unacceptable rate.

He will likely finish this season somewhere in the middle of those extremes, but expecting a repeat of his storybook 2023 isn’t wise. Conner is best viewed as a viable RB2 moving forward, with some potential upside if/when Arizona unlocks this passing game and backs defenses off the line of scrimmage.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp: I entered this season with Kupp labeled as a safe weekly starter. Given that he reminded us all that he is still capable of uncovering at every level last week, he deserves WR1 consideration with this offense slanted in his favor.

The usage rate from last week is unsustainable, but his target share figures to rank among the elite, and he is getting those looks from a pocket passer who excels at thinking a step ahead.

Kupp is ready to party like it’s 2021.

Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson: With Nacua sidelined for the next month, the WR2 role in Los Angeles is wide open. Will it matter?

If Kupp vacuums in targets at the absurd rate that he did on Sunday night, no. But I believe that the usage patterns we saw against Detroit were more the result of needing to adjust on the fly than a desire to recreate Kupp’s historic season.

Johnson made the splash play among the “other” receivers in the opener, but he was largely inefficient otherwise. That’s not to say Robinson was great, but we did see him score in four straight games last year as he demonstrated confidence in that WR2 role.

I prefer Robinson this week and, barring extreme splits, I think that’ll be the case for the entirety of Nacua’s absence. He is a top-40 play for me this week, and I think it’s a real conversation with him and a suddenly risky play in Jayden Reed, assuming that Jordan Love is sidelined.

Marvin Harrison Jr.: Ja’Marr Chase is the only top-10 pick WR over the past 20 years to reach 75 yards in his debut, so if you’re asking me if I’m worried about this uber-prospect finishing his first NFL game with four yards on three targets, the answer is a resounding no.

I don’t know about you, but I didn’t leave Los Angeles’ season opener with confidence that their defense was anything but ordinary. Their pressure rate dropped from 32.1% last season to 26.9% in their first game of this post-Aaron Donald world – I’ll take my chances on this Murray/Harrison connection looking better with a full game of live reps under their belt and a clean pocket from which to work.

I’m not pivoting. Harris was a top-15 receiver for me last week and occupies the same title this week. You drafted him as a pure talent bet, and I’m willing to double down, especially in a game that I think sees plenty of points put on the board.

#TrustTheProcess.

Michael Wilson: The second-year receiver scored on Arizona’s first drive of 2024 and saw a target in the waning moments of the Cardinals’ final drive. Outside of that, he ran 20 targetless routes, a disappearing act that was disappointing when you consider that the Bills made it a point to keep an eye on Harrison.

As mentioned, no QB in Week 1 had more time on average to throw than Murray, an alarming statistic when it comes to trying to evaluate Wilson’s ability to win on designed routes and/or uncover in scramble situations.

The Cards scored 28 points, and I think we see production like that consistently from this talented group. Buffalo excels at taking away the chunk pass play, and that is where fantasy managers need Wilson to win.

I like the 6’2” Wilson to emerge as the WR2 in this offense with time. That hasn’t changed. Keep him stashed on your roster.

You’re not playing Wilson yet, but there will be a time to do so as the season wears on.

Tight Ends

Trey McBride: Last week, McBride disappointed ordinary fantasy managers. But that’s not you, is it?

After an elite finish to 2023, the pride of Colorado State opened this season by earning 29% of the targets, seeing his slot usage increase by a tick, and his average depth of target move up by 35.5%. In the nerds community, that is a profile to embrace, not look down upon.

Fantasy is a simple game at its core, but predicting the future is a different beast. We can’t do it with 100% accuracy, but we can put ourselves on the right side of probabilities, and that is what we have here.

McBride has seen at least five targets in 13 straight games, the most by a tight end under the age of 25 since Jermaine Gresham (2010-12). He failed to reach his projections last week, but I left the opener more confident in my investment in him than seven days ago.

Lock him in and feel great about it!

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

• Spread: Steelers -2.5
• Total: 36.5
• Steelers implied points: 19.5
• Broncos implied points: 17

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields: With Russell Wilson (calf) banged up, Fields opened the season under center. And while his skill set still plays for our purposes, an offense built around George Pickens isn’t going to give him the same upside as the one he left behind in Chicago that featured DJ Moore.

Fields had nearly as many rush attempts (14) as completions (17) in the win last week against the Falcons, a stat line that he could well replicate in this spot against the blitz-happiest team from last week (Denver ranked fourth in blitz rate last season). Yes, that’s what we want, but we need him to be better at it before inserting him into lineups.

Against Atlanta, Pittsburgh had the ball for over 35.5 minutes and yet managed just two trips to the red zone. When all was said and done, all the Steelers had to show for the afternoon on the offensive side of things was six Chris Boswell field goals and a lot of question marks as to what could have been.

With Jaylen Warren at less than full strength and a lack of receiving talent behind Pickens, another vintage script seems likely in the game with the lowest total on the board.

The floor might be higher than others in this range, but Fields’ ceiling in a game like this isn’t enough to justify the risk of starting him. I have him ranked outside of my top 15 for Week 2, slotting behind Caleb Williams (at Houston) after a dud debut and Matthew Stafford (no Puka Nacua this week).

Bo Nix: When you hear “plays with his hair on fire,” Nix is the personification of the image that comes into your mind.

In the Broncos’ Week 1 loss, we had a bit of everything – a recklessness that pays off, poor decisions that the announcer knew was an interception before it left his hand, and everything in between.

I said Nix would be the 2024 version of 2023 Will Levis, and nothing from last week is making me pivot off of that take. He has enough tools to make plays at this level, but having all of the stars align for 60 consecutive minutes is asking a lot.

Nix will have two monster games this season, it’s just not going to happen against a Steelers defense that might be one of the five best in the sport.

Since I’m in the prediction business, I’ll say Nix has a big game in Week 7 at New Orleans (a random Thursday night explosion fits this profile) and Week 15 against the Colts as he tries to imitate Anthony Richardson after a week off.

Running Backs

Najee Harris: If you’ve played in the same league for a while, the odds are good that everyone has had their turn rostering Harris, plugging him in as an unsatisfying RB2, and moving on with their life. It’s a right of passage. And once every manager in your league has shared that experience, you’ve formed a bond.

Sadly, nothing is different this time around. With a compromised Warren, Harris wasn’t any different than you would have guessed – he just did it on a few more touches.

Harris accounted for 20 of 26 Pittsburgh running back carries and, if not for an outlier 20-yard “burst,” we are looking at a 19-carry, 50-yard day at the office along with two catches for nine yards.

If that’s not vintage Harris, I don’t know what is.

With Warren still at far less than full strength and the Steelers facing the Broncos and their blitzing, I’d expect something very similar this week.

Against the Falcons, Harris finished as RB35 in fantasy points and RB19 in expected points. Split the difference; move him up a few spots for the safety of his role and poor matchups for others – yep, an unappealing RB2 for the 47th consecutive week.

Jaylen Warren: Mike Tomlin admitted on Tuesday that he wasn’t close to labeling Warren as fully healthy, and considering that this is a rotation that is hard to trust in the best case, that rules him out of all Flex decisions.

Warren’s explosive play potential pairs better with Fields than Wilson, so that potential development leaves me with long-term hope that we can get Flex production as the season wears on.

Hold onto Warren with the understanding that you can gloss over him when piecing together your Week 2 lineup.

Javonte Williams: At the beginning of the preseason, Williams’ roster spot was being questioned. By the end of August, we were penciling him in for 18-20 touches.

Both were wrong.

Williams is still the best bet in Denver’s backfield, especially after the two primary threats to his work put the ball on the ground in Seattle. But a 52.2% snap share in an unappealing offense isn’t exactly a profile I’m going out of my way to play.

Jordan Mason and J.K. Dobbins were the primary breakouts at the position in Week 1, and while regression is a near certainty, I’d be happy to plug in both over Williams if given the opportunity.

Wide Receivers

George Pickens: There is a lot of talent bubbling beneath the surface for Pickens. The question is if the QB play can elevate him to a meaningful space for our purposes.

I’m not shedding light on anything new by saying that – it just is what it is.

Over the course of an entire NFL game in 2024 against a defense that ranked below average in opponent passer rating last season, Pickens was the only Steeler with a catch that gained more than 10 yards.

Think about that. The Patriots-Bengals game may have been the most boring from an offensive point of view last weekend, and six players in that game had a catch gaining more than 10 yards.

In theory, you’d think that Pickens is a better fit for a Wilson-led offense. From a deep ball perspective, that makes sense, but I’d give a Fields-led unit more scoring equity, so I’m not sure who is under center makes a big difference for Pickens.

The Broncos didn’t give up a 20-yard completion to any of the Seahawks’ receivers last week. Both WR1s in this game project as high-upside players that will have big weeks this year, but I’m not comfortable plugging either in this week over talented young players like Jameson Williams, Xavier Worthy, or Brian Thomas Jr.

Courtland Sutton: I said it this preseason and I stand by it – this Nix season could look a lot like Will Levis’ as a rookie. That may sound damning, and for season-long managers, it is. Recklessness without experience is a problem, and we saw as much from Nix on Sunday in Seattle.

That said, when the stars align for a chaotic QB, the results can be special. Sutton (28.6% Week 1 target share) isn’t a top-36 receiver for me this week, a ranking I think will be the case more often than not. But I’m going to leave the light on as Nix develops and the matchups soften.

If Nix can show me a flicker of growth in this brutal matchup, I’ll be putting Sutton on DFS rosters next week in Tampa Bay.

I’ll set the over/under at 3.5 for the number of top-20 weeks from Sutton this season, and I think I’d bet on the “over.” Check back every week to see when I’m putting my chest into my ranking of him. But it’s not this week against a Steelers defense that held Drake London and Kyle Pitts to 41 yards on six targets last week.

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: What is the upside in this offense for a secondary pass catcher? How many times do you think a non-DJ Moore WR/TE had 13+ expected PPR points last season under Fields’ direction?

Twice.

That’s not going to cut it, and I’m not sure that a move to Wilson would greatly improve the potential of any of the pass catchers.

The idea of getting the No. 2 option in a passing game is appealing in theory, but when a 100% catch rate nets 6.7 PPR points, asking a question where “Steelers secondary pass catcher” is the answer means you’re asking the wrong question.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

• Spread: Chiefs -6
• Total: 47.5
• Bengals implied points: 20.8
• Chiefs implied points: 26.8

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow: OK, so the box score (21-of-29 for 164 yards, zero TDs, zero INT) wasn’t as bad as it looked.

By no means was it good, but Burrow should have had a touchdown pass on consecutive plays – Mike Geiscki couldn’t finish an end-zone target, and Tanner Hudson fumbled on what looked like a surefire touchdown. If that happens, this game is tied late in the first half, giving it the potential to be very different the rest of the way.

That, of course, does you no good now.

Can this passing game get on track? The Chiefs dialed back their blitz rate in a significant way last week (17.6%, down from 28.6% in 2023). We will learn with time if it was a Lamar Jackson matchup thing or an absence of L’Jarius Snead thing. But there’s a chance that Burrow will have time to operate if his offensive line can hold up against Kansas City’s front.

Burrow is part of a QB tier that extends from QB12-17 this week. Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott will be ranked ahead of him if their weapons return to action, and the argument isn’t hard to make for Baker Mayfield after a big week.

If Burrow is your only quarterback, you’re better off playing him than gambling on the wire, but you’ll likely need the rest of your roster to pick up the slack.

Patrick Mahomes: I thought Mahomes was ordinary by his lofty standards on Thursday night, but against an elite defense without a piece this team brought in to give this passing game more versatility, there’s no reason to tweak how you think about the best quarterback in the sport.

We are nearing 11 months since the last time Mahomes threw at least three touchdown passes in a game, a run that doesn’t seem possible. Could that streak come to an end against a Bengals secondary that allowed a league-high 8.1 yards per pass attempt last season? It’s certainly possible.

The one nit to pick with Mahomes is something we already knew was fragile – the rushing. We saw him pile up 141 yards on the ground during Kansas City’s run to a Super Bowl title, but that’s a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency skill that he doesn’t flash with consistency until the playoffs. He had fewer than 10 rushing yards in four of his past six regular season games, with zero rushing touchdowns since Christmas of 2022.

Mahomes’ path to a QB1 finish this season might be an uphill battle, but with Xavier Worthy showing spunk and this pass-catching core likely to mesh with time, he remains one of the highest-floor options at the position.

Running Backs

Zack Moss: I’m trying, Cincy. I’m an optimist at heart, and trying to find silver linings in what happened last week is difficult for me, so I can imagine what you’re going through as you try to dust yourself off and take on the two-time defending champs on extended rest.

Moss looked fine last week. He handled all three backfield carries in the first quarter and paid off consecutive rush attempts inside the 10-yard line with a score after Chase Brown helped the Bengals get there. For the afternoon as a whole, Moss played 64.6% of the snaps and produced 33.1% more points than expected given where his touches came on the field.

This is still a committee, but one that Moss is sitting on the right side of. Week 1 was a bumpy ride for this team (under 26 minutes of possession and 4.8 yards per pass), and that capped the fantasy appeal for all of the Bengals’ options. That said, if you invested in Moss this summer, you’re in a better position to profit now than you were seven days ago.

Moss is still not a locked-in Flex option for me (RB32) with the game script being a concern, but he’s not far off. And with a decent showing this week, he’ll threaten my top 24 at the position for Week 3.

Chase Brown: I’m not making broad statements after an upset loss by a team that had plenty of internal noise this offseason, but if Brown isn’t careful, he could fall off of the fantasy radar altogether.

It was a tiny sample against an elite defense, and for that reason, assuming you’re still buying some stock in this offense as a whole, Brown is a hold.

But a low-usage opener where his competition ran more routes, earned more targets, and picked up positive yards on every one of his carries isn’t exactly how those who scooped Brown up this summer envisioned the season starting in a game where Cincy was an eight-point favorite.

Isiah Pacheco: Box-score watchers aren’t going to love what they saw from Pacheco in Week 1. He didn’t have a carry gain more than five yards, and traditional Kansas City creativity cost him some carries in close after Worthy took a 21-yard carry to the house. But I’m actually higher on Pacheco today than I was this preseason – and I was already ahead of the industry average.

We will have to monitor how exactly Samaje Perine is used, but he didn’t pose a massive threat last week (eight snaps). Yes, he was recently signed, and that probably has something to do with it, but the fear is that he tanks Pacheco’s role in the passing game.

The thought process is sound, but after seeing Pacheco used as an actual threat out of the backfield (he was flexed on on more than a few occasions and posted a 1.3 aDOT, way up from his negative-2.3 average last season), I’m convinced that Andy Reid is confident in his versatility.

Even in a low-volume game where the Chiefs only had the ball for 26:17 (a number that they came in under just three times last season) against maybe the best defense in the sport, Pacheco produced a fine stat line (78 yards and a touchdown), and Pacheco exploited these Bengals a season ago (25 touches for 165 yards and a touchdown).

You’re starting Pacheco with all sorts of conviction, and I remain sold on him being a major win with where you got him this summer.

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase: A 100% catch rate while accounting for 37.8% of Cincinnati’s receiving yards in a game where they were more than a touchdown favorite.

If you traveled back in time and gave me that note before Week 1 kicked off, I would have taken out loans to bet on a big day from Chase and this offense. Good thing time travel isn’t a thing.

Chase’s 12.2 PPR fantasy points weren’t the end of the world, but it’s not exactly what we were expecting given the upside he’s shown and the volume we expected him to assume with Tee Higgins sidelined.

Is it possible that we are over-indexing what we saw from Chase early in his career and that those days are simply in the past?

I’m not going quite that far, but it should be noted that his lowest aDOT in a season from Burrow entering 2024 was 9.4 yards. On Sunday, 6.3 was the number.

Chase is an athletic marvel who can make a play from anywhere on the field. But there’s no denying that his upside is most attainable when he’s running vertically, something that Cincinnati’s offense has dialed back since his first year in the league.

You’re not benching Chase. Not in a potential spot where the game script could favor the pass. Not for a fringe option like any of the Chicago or Jacksonville receivers that live in this range and lack role clarity.

However, you are lowering expectations, and I’m OK with a full DFS fade (I presume he will be a popular bring-back stack for those building around multiple Chiefs). Since the beginning of last season, Kansas City has been a top-10 YAC prevention defense against WRs and a top-five unit when it comes to stopping deep passes.

Like it or not, Chase, in this matchup and due to his recent usage patterns, deserves to be ranked outside of the top 12 wide receiver and in the frustrating-alpha-earners tier that is home to Davante Adams and Chris Olave.

Tee Higgins: Adam Schefter said on Monday that he’d “be surprised” if Higgins suited up this weekend as he continues to battle a hamstring injury. These soft-tissue issues have a way of lingering and a messy contractual situation doesn’t exactly make a rush to return any more likely.

I’d count on a replacement option this week and hope for the best moving forward. The Bengals get the Commanders and Panthers over the next two weeks, a very soft landing spot if he can find his way back onto the field.

Rashee Rice: Can we put to bed the idea of Mahomes not having a WR1 at his disposal yet? Rice had three more catches in Week 1 than any of his teammates saw targets and is now up to seven straight regular-season games with at least five catches. He’s also had at least seven grabs in five of those contests.

Rice is a PPR asset that carries a floor that might rank among the 10 best at the position. The touchdowns aren’t going to be consistent due to the variety of options in this offense, especially if this unit opens up with time. But with 10-12 PPR points a near lock, Rice is the type of receiver that we often see on championship-winning fantasy teams.

Cincinnati allowed the second most yards per shot pass last season (only the Giants were worse), making this a potential DFS bonus spot for Rice to reach triple digits in the yardage column for a second consecutive week.

With only three afternoon games this week, Rice could prove to be the late hammer that you need to finish off a successful week in daily formats. His draft day price was cheap, and you should feel great about having a leg up on your competition by rostering this target magnet.

Hollywood Brown: The shoulder injury that he suffered on Aug. 10 came with a 4-6-week timetable. With the Chiefs, a team with their eyes on a three-peat, winning their first game, it stands to reason that they are going to operate with the utmost caution in September (and, realistically, for the majority of the regular season).

That’s not to say that Brown isn’t worth a roster spot, but I’m very much operating with a wait-and-see mindset. I don’t expect Brown to play this weekend, and I don’t anticipate him getting anywhere near my top 30 at the position until I see him not only on the field but having a full workload.

If the Brown manager in your league is skittish because of the injury and the burst Xaiver Worthy showed in his debut, there’s no harm in sending a low-ball trade offer. This offense is going to need a versatile option in the passing game, and Brown is still positioned to be that when at full strength.

Xavier Worthy: I’d argue that his fantasy production (68 yards and two touchdowns on three touches) outpaced the performance (11.1% target share despite a 76.7% route participation). But the speed certainly translates.

The 35-yard touchdown catch was a broken coverage, and while that type of thing is difficult to count on, Worthy’s profile is going to cause issues like that due to the leverage his speed creates.

The difficult part of Worthy’s situation is that sometimes he will benefit from the space he creates and other times it’ll be his teammates. Think of Steph Curry’s impact, where sometimes he breaks free, and other times his teammates are left wide open with all of the attention flocking to him.

I was encouraged by the rookie matching Rice’s route count with 23. All other Chief receivers totaled 30. Will that sustain as Brown works his way back into action?

That is a concern for another day. You can Flex Worthy, though you need to be aware that the floor is low until he proves capable of earning targets on a consistent basis.

Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki: Even with Higgins sidelined, Gesicki ranked fifth on Cincinnati in route count (16). While he did earn four looks in that limited action, that’s a role that doesn’t carry much in the way of upside.

We saw a glimpse of the athletic profile that made Gesicki a preseason sleeper (he had a 14-yard touchdown wiped off the board after review), and I stand by his potential when it comes to a DFS option that will have his moments. However, you’re overly optimistic if you’re counting on Gesicki in any capacity in a redraft setting.

Travis Kelce: That’s now four straight regular season games for Kelce with under 45 receiving yards, and he’s not the current leader at the position in fantasy points – on his own team.

I’m not sweating it, though. I wasn’t in a hurry to pay top dollar for Kelce this preseason, but that was more a case built on management down the stretch. If you drafted him, you’re playing him, even if you want to dock his ranking.

READ MORE: Soppe’s Fantasy Football TE Busts for 2024

Against the Ravens last week, Kelce ran a route on 86.7% of Mahomes’ dropbacks – more than double the rate of Noah Gray. A tight end committee was the storyline from Kansas City’s Week 1 win, but it had nothing to do with the Chiefs.

Chicago Bears at Houston Texans

• Spread: Texans -6.5
• Total: 45.5
• Bears implied points: 19.5
• Texans implied points: 26

Quarterbacks

Caleb Williams: Talk about a wake-up call. Williams was the lone quarterback to earn a failing grade in our custom PFN Insights this past week and looked about as bad as the numbers suggest.

On the bright side, over the past decade, top overall draft picks average 12.9% more fantasy points per throw in their second start than their first. He showed some good feel as an athlete out of the pocket – there’s a fantasy asset here, we just may have to showcase patience before reaping the rewards.

Williams sits just outside of my top 15 at the position this week, even in a reasonably good matchup.

C.J. Stroud: We wondered all summer how Stroud would maximize his weapons, and I’d say Week 1 was a success. Against the Colts, he funneled over two-thirds of his passes to his trio of receivers, completing 12 of 14 attempts when looking for Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, specifically.

I was very encouraged by what I saw last week; if these receivers’ roles are as clear as they appeared (Collins does a bit of everything, Diggs is a short-range target, and Dell is a matchup-based route runner), this offense is going to improve exponentially as the season wears on.

I don’t think Stroud has a clear path to entering the top tier at the position, but he’s not far behind and should be a strong ROI play based on where you drafted him. The Bears’ defense is good, but I’m willing to entertain the idea of Stroud already being matchup-proof.

Running Backs

D’Andre Swift: The receivers obviously have value to gain as Williams finds his NFL legs, but Swift’s stock might have the most room to grow as the rookie quarterback develops.

In the season opener, there was nothing in the way of competition for Swift managers to sweat (67.9% snap share, the only Chicago RB to reach even 21%).

The zero receiving yards last week sticks out, but the fact that Swift ran 20 routes provides me with long-term hope. He’ll be better in that regard, likely sooner than later, and I expect his rushing success rate to also correlate with Williams’ comfort level.

Swift’s Week 1 breakdown:

• His 20-yard carry: seven yards gained before contact
• Other 10 rush attempts: negative-one yard before contact

Hang in there. Bell-cow roles don’t grow on trees in 2024, and, at the very least, we know Swift has that.

The Texans were the best defense last season in terms of limiting yards per carry, so I’m not sure this is a spot for Swift to live up to the potential I think he will eventually have access to.

Be patient. Or buy low after this week. Better days are ahead of Swift – likely over the next few weeks (IND-LAR-CAR in Weeks 3-5).

Joe Mixon: What was that? If you gave me Mixon’s stat line without a name attached to it seven days ago, I’m not sure Houston’s bell cow would have been one of my first 25 guesses, but here we are.

• 33 touches
• 178 yards
• 71.1% snap share
• 75% carry share (90.9% of RB carries)

I’ll own it – I was down on Mixon entering this season. I’m not sorry about it. My concern was about his efficiency and a potential dip in his passing game usage. Was I wrong?

Despite all of that usage, Mixon didn’t have a carry gain more than 13 yards, and his receiving yardage total checked in 27.9% below his average from the two seasons prior.

Mixon was able to leverage a strong game script and consistent modest gains – 46.7% of his totes picked up at least 5 yards, a mark well above his 31.9% rate from a season ago.

I think it’s possible we just saw Mixon’s best game of the 2024 season. The running back position is largely underwhelming this week in the middle of the ranks (Alvin Kamara draws the Cowboys, Aaron Jones the 49ers, and Travis Etienne Jr. the Browns, while Josh Jacobs’ offensive environment is stuck in reverse), positioning Mixon as a stable RB2 for me, even without a ton of optimism on my end.

Wide Receivers

DJ Moore: After watching him play with Williams in live action, I lowered Moore’s chances of repeating his 2023 success from little to none.

That’s not to say he can’t be viable, I just don’t think Moore can be special. Against the Titans last week, Moore’s aDOT was 38.9% lower than last season. If that sticks, I’m worried. All three of Chicago’s primary receivers had an aDOT under 10 yards, a replication of skills that is prohibitive when it comes to consistent success.

Moore can win down the field, and if he gets pushed outside with time, his fantasy ceiling will increase. I’d bet on that happening, but not until Williams is comfortable.

You can feel fine about labeling Moore as a low-end WR2 in all formats, tiering alongside other top options with risk under center like Terry McLaurin and Amari Cooper, for example.

Keenan Allen: Allen was laboring at points during his Chicago debut, but a 37.9% target share is a great place to start, even if the fantasy production (four catches for 29 yards) wasn’t there.

He checked boxes, and that’s what I prioritize in September. Allen was responsible for two of the Bears’ third-down receptions in Week 1, and he was the only receiver on this team to see a red-zone target (he dropped a touchdown).

I still slightly prefer Moore, but I’m reasonably in on a bounce-back from Williams in his second start and thus have both of his primary receivers tucked inside my top 30 at the position with Rome Odunze on the shelf.

Nico Collins: There were a handful of teams with uncertain target hierarchies. Houston was, theoretically, on that list, but after 60 minutes, I think we can put that notion to bed.

After a slow start (Stroud led two scoring drives to open the season, and Collins didn’t see a single look in the process), he was making game-breaking plays left and right.

Need a 55-yard bomb? Done. How about a scramble drill for Stroud on 3rd-and-14? Easy 19-yard gain with Collins working back to bail out his signal-caller. A top-10 highlight catch on the sideline to help ice the game on 3rd-and-11? Book it.

Top WRs in home PPR points per game last season:

• CeeDee Lamb: 28.7
• Tyreek Hill: 24.6
• Collins: 21.1

Collins is one of the 10 best receivers in the sport, and that’s going to be reflected in my rankings. He’s nearing the “matchup-proof” label, which is one I don’t throw around often.

Stefon Diggs: The box score from his Texans debut looks good (WR9 with 21.9 PPR points), but the fact that Diggs had fewer air yards in that entire game than he averaged per target during his final three seasons with the Bills is something I simply can’t shake.

Diggs spent 55.2% of his time on the field last week in the slot, a new role that I think is a sharp move by Houston (he never reached a 31.5% slot rate in Buffalo). He was the first Texan with multiple catches in the season opener and was targeted with three of Stroud’s first 10 looks. I’m confident that his value with the Texans will be higher than it would have been had he stayed in Buffalo.

The lack of a ceiling, however, is worrisome. Down the stretch last season, Diggs’ downfield efficiency faded, and if he truly can’t separate on those routes, what we saw on Sunday is about as good of an outcome as you can possibly hope for.

I’ll take Diggs over George Pickens and any Jaguars receiver this week, though that’s still not enough to land him inside my top 30 at the position.

Tank Dell: Dell saw the first target of the 2024 season and was as involved as both Diggs and Collins. His 22.6% target share is acceptable and about the ceiling as to what we can realistically expect with Houston’s offense at full strength.

How lucky do you feel?

Stroud missed Dell on what could have been a 41-yard touchdown, and that was that. If that play connects, he ends up with 20 fantasy points and finishes the week as WR12. Instead, he has a “WR49” label next to his box score.

The Bears should be viewed as a top-10 defense after they showed sustained success in Week 1 following the late-season surge to close 2023, and those aren’t the spots where I’m going to land on Dell.

Diggs’ role near the line of scrimmage projects more friendly this week, even if the ceiling is nowhere close to the same. Neither is a must-start, but I’d play Diggs in this heads-up spot and would rather roll the dice on home-run hitters like Jameson Williams or Xavier Worthy this season.

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet: You can tell me Kmet is a good player all you want, but until I play in a fantasy league that rewards talent with tangible points, I don’t really care.

Gerald Everett ran 10 more routes than Kmet in the season opener and they, as a tandem, turned 32 routes into three yards, six of which came after the catch.

You read that right.

There’s no meat on this bone. Move on.

Dalton Schultz: Getting cheap exposure to the Texans is a good idea. That is until you have to click the “start” button next to Schultz after he posted a sub-10% target share in the win over the Colts.

Stroud is only going to get more comfortable in three-receiver sets with time, and considering that the Collins/Dell/Diggs trio accounted for 21 of 31 targets last week, that doesn’t leave much room for optimism elsewhere.

Schultz is a tight end who might be interesting should an injury happen to any of the receivers, but he can sit on your waiver wire until that point in time.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles

• Spread: Eagles -6.5
• Total: 47
• Falcons implied points: 20.3
• Eagles implied points: 26.8

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins: Hogwash. Blasphemy. Rubbish. Malarkey.

Pardon my obscene language, but Cousins’ name has been dragged through the mud of late and someone needs to speak up.

OK, so that may be a bit dramatic, but my guess is that you saw this game on the schedule and immediately thought, “Oh great, Kirk Cousins on primetime. How many different ways can I bet against him?”

Sound about right?

Cousins has actually won seven of his past 10 primetime starts, and he’s cleared 20 fantasy points in each of the past stand-alone spots in which his team reached double figures in points scored – a low bar to clear in today’s game.

His most recent instance? A 28.6-point effort in this exact spot – at Philadelphia in Week 2.

That’s not to say that Cousins is a top-12 option or that he’s going to post a big number, but counting him out based solely on a narrative isn’t the way to make decisions.

The Eagles didn’t exactly impress me on the defensive end in Week 1. They had a few nice stops inside the 20 but didn’t grade out much above where they stood last season as a whole. Plus, they allowed a TD on 28% of opponent drives last season.

Cousins remains a viable QB2 option, and he very well could be a nice DFS showdown play if the public perception of passing on him in prime time tanks his ownership.

Jalen Hurts: For those who entered the season worried about Hurts’ opportunity count with Saquon Barkley now a featured member of this offense, do you feel better now?

In the season opener, Hurts he had 47 chances to score fantasy points (pass or rush attempts), a number he cleared just three times during his huge 2023 season.

That’s not to say the Week 1 win was perfect – it wasn’t. There were some lapses in judgment, and the “Tush Push” certainly didn’t look the same. Those flaws could be a problem in this spot against the fourth-best red-zone defense from a year ago, but they are more of a pain than anything actionable.

You’re playing Hurts every week without much of a second thought.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson: The first game sans Arthur Smith went about how we thought, and it has the potential to be glorious. Robinson didn’t once have a 15-carry, five-catch game as a rookie, but last Sunday, he racked up 18 rushes and caught all five of his targets.

His 23 opportunities were 20 more than Tyler Allgeier’s, indicating that the alpha role that we spent the last 12 months begging for is final here. Embrace it – your first-round investment is going to pay off in a solid way, and this should be a great example of what you can expect moving forward.

Saquon Barkley: How’s that for a team debut? Barkley scored three times on Friday night, tallying 33.2 PPR points, the sixth-best performance of his career (and 59.8% over expectation). He looked very much like a running back with the potential to pace the position in scoring this season.

I’m not projecting that to be the case, but Barkley did check every box you could have wished for. The touchdown catch reminded us of his elite versatility, and the 72.4% bump in yards per carry before contact compared to last season confirmed the level of improvement in his supporting cast.

The question surrounding Barkley is not if you should play him or not, but if he can be a league-winner. If you believe the rookie version of him is back, sit tight and enjoy the ride. If not, you might be wise to cash in this chip now after the standout performance in an island game.

Philadelphia plays a top-six rush defense in terms of EPA in 2023 in each of the next three weeks. It’s not crazy to think that if you’re in the business of fielding offers, Barkley’s trade market price could currently be at its peak.

Wide Receivers

Drake London: We waited all offseason for London to be unleashed and then … that?

London saw just a 10.7% on-field target share in his 2024 debut, his lowest rate since, interestingly enough, his first game of last season. I can’t explain the slow starts, but I can try to calm your nerves by informing you that London’s rate was 23.5% over his next seven games.

Atlanta was a mess in Week 1, it really was that simple. Maybe Pittsburgh’s defense is that good, and that’s certainly part of it. The other Pennsylvania defense won’t offer nearly the same level of resistance.

Last weekend, no Falcon had a catch gain more than 20 yards, which resulted in me checking on Cousins’ aggression trends.

Yeah, we have a problem. Cousins’ aDOT began to tank pre-injury last season and came in at 5.4 yards on Sunday, 28.9% below his career norm. If that continues, dominating the target share is going to be required for London to post top-20 numbers with little room for upside as opposed to a receiver with top-20 status locked in and the upside to get to the top 10.

He sits just outside of my top 20 at the position this week, WR3 in this game alone. London is down my ranks eight spots from last week, but I still would prefer him to DK Metcalf (at New England) or Amari Cooper (at Jacksonville).

Darnell Mooney: I mentioned the low aDOT for Cousins (his lowest since Week 5, 2022), and if the scheme of this offense is to move the chains, the Mooney flier you took in the final round is looking like a sunken cost.

I’d rather try to pin the tail on the Commander receiver next to Terry McLaurin or experiment with the Cardinals’ WR rotation than hold onto any Mooney stock. Heck, give me receivers like Mike Williams, Josh Downs, or Curtis Samuel instead, even with them all banged up in some capacity.

A.J. Brown: If you’re of the belief that the Philadelphia collapse last season was the result of a banged-up Hurts and that the Eagles are a true threat to win the conference this season with him healthy, Brown has a path to be the top-scoring receiver in the sport.

The star receiver scored 22.9 PPR points against the Packers, the seventh time in the Eagles’ past 10 wins in which Brown has cleared 18.5 fantasy points. The 67-yard touchdown obviously made his day, but the 34.5% target share is what I like to see.

The only real concern with Brown this preseason was surrounding his volume with Barkley in town. But if he is going to dominate the looks like this, there’s very little risk.

The Falcons ranked 25th in pressure rate last season, and if they can’t speed Hurts up, Brown could improve upon the gaudy stats he put up last week.

Brown’s splits, 2023:

• When Hurts was pressured: 4.1% points under expectation, 23.6% target share
• When Hurts wasn’t pressured: 13.3% points over expectation, 33.5% target share

DeVonta Smith: The 15.4 points Smith gave you against the Packers will certainly work, but I do worry about his mean expectation living up to the lineup lock status that he has assumed for much of his career.

Including last week, based on where his targets come on the field, Smith’s point expectation has checked in under 13.5 points in nine of his past 11 games.

Now, an explosive player like this is more than capable of overachieving, but you need to be aware that the floor could fall out from under him a little easier than players that were in his ADP range, like DJ Moore or DK Metcalf.

I’m not suggesting that you bench Smith. I still have him ranked as a starter because getting exposure to an offense with an implied point total like this is still a good bet. I just want you to be aware that he’s not a set-it-and-forget-it type.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts: The Falcons showed their hand by running Pitts out there for a full complement of routes. They’re still buying in on him in a significant way. The underlying usage numbers were much more encouraging than the raw statistics in Cousins’ debut with the team, a game that was weird throughout (I bet you couldn’t have told me Ray-Ray McCloud III’s team, let alone project him to lead an NFL team in targets for a game that counted).

Even in a dumpster fire of an offensive performance against the Steelers, Pitts scored and has now seen an end-zone target in three of his past four games after seeing just one in his previous 12.

This is an expectations thing. We all want Pitts to produce Tier 1 numbers and won’t be satisfied until he gets there. I don’t think we get that this season, but I’m still firm in my belief that he’s a top-10 performer at the position this season (especially with a few injuries already happening), and I have him ranked as such this week.

Dallas Goedert: The Eagles had more rushes than pass attempts last week, and if that continues in games in which they hold the lead, Goedert will have a difficult time returning top-10 value at a position that is deeper than it’s been in quite some time.

Goedert posted an 81.1% snap share and ran a route on 78.9% of Hurts’ dropbacks last week – marks that are much more impressive than his 7.1 PPR points reflect.

That’s my concern: His usage can’t get much better, and in a game where the Eagles scored 34 points, he was hardly usable.

Is Goedert fancy Cade Otton? That might be a bit harsh, but this is a concentrated offense, and he’s not really a big part of it.

More often than not, Barkley will post impressive usage rates (be it on the ground, like against the Packers, or via the short passing game), adding another obstacle.

The fact that he is on the field plenty as a part of a top-10 offense keeps Goedert valued above the streamers that are available on your waiver wire, but I’m not optimistic, given his lack of a ceiling.

You’re likely going to have to roll Goedert out there based on roster construction (few managers roster multiple tight ends), but he’s at the top of my “look to sell following a strong performance” list at the tight end position.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

• Spread: Dolphins -2.5
• Total: 49
• Bills implied points: 23.3
• Dolphins implied points: 25.8

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen: Zero is the number for the week.

Zero times has Allen failed to throw multiple TD passes against Miami.

Zero players have more rushing TDs than Allen since Joe Brady took over as Bills OC.

Zero QBs should be ranked ahead of Allen this week.

In his first game of his seventh season, Josh Allen is now tied for the second-most TDs in a player's first seven seasons:

1. Patrick Mahomes – 231
2t. Josh Allen – 225
2t. Dan Marino – 225
2t. Peyton Manning – 225

— Buffalo Bills PR (@BuffaloBillsPR) September 8, 2024

For his career, Allen averages 28.9 PPG career vs. Miami (12 games) with 72.9% of points coming via the pass (34.8% of those points being scored on the deep pass). Add in the rushing TD equity with Brady calling the plays (as it is, Allen has 30+ rushing yards in nine of those games) and you’re going to have a hard time projecting any player in the sport to top Buffalo’s lead man in Week 2.

Tua Tagovailoa: No team gave the opposing QB more time to throw last week than the Bills, and if they deploy a similar strategy this week, Tagovailoa could correct some of his historical struggles against the divisional rival. He’s never scored more than 18.1 fantasy points against the Bills and averages roughly 30% fewer points per pass in those spots than his career norm.

This offense remains a concentrated one (66.7% of Tagovailoa’s targets went to Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, or De’Von Achane) and that makes Tagovailoa a top-10 signal-caller this week.

Running Backs

James Cook: Since Brady took over this offense, Cook has 64.8% of running back carries, 67.8% of running back rushing yards, and 68.9% of running back receiving yards. He may not hold the scoring equity that we all want (six straight scoreless games, including the playoffs), but he checks every other box.

And in a world where committees are in vogue, that locks Cook into lineups across the board.

Given Allen’s level of success in this spot, Cook is an RB1 for me, ranking ahead of a Week 1 star in Joe Mixon.

Ray Davis: It’s too early to outright dismiss Davis, but the odds of him holding stand-alone value appear to be an even longer shot now than it was a week ago (10.3% snap share in Week 1).

I thought Davis showed well for himself when given the opportunity. He picked up 14 yards on a play where he was featured in play-action and followed it up with a 13-yard rush. But without volume or a projectable role on the goal line, he’s a luxury roster stash more than a must-hold.

De’Von Achane: After Raheem Mostert got the first carry, Achane got the next two and picked up 39 yards in the process. I liked seeing him cash in a goal-line carry, but it was the paying off of preseason hype in terms of pass-game usage that caught my attention.

Achane caught seven passes in the season opener after seeing 5+ targets just once as a rookie. The snap share (53.8%) has room to grow, though if it didn’t happen last week with Jaylen Wright inactive, I don’t know how you can realistically count on that.

First 113 career carries:

• LaDainian Tomlinson: 441 yards and six TDs
• Achane: 824 yards and nine TDs

Raheem Mostert:

Update: Mostert has been ruled out for Week 2

If you gave me the Week 1 profile (43.1% snap share with the first carry of the game), I wouldn’t have been surprised – that’s essentially what we were banking on.

The step back in snap count was expected (Mostert played the majority of snaps in 12 of 15 games last season), but that rate is fine if he assumes a similar role to 2023 when he is on the field.

Not so much. Achane held the 7-3 snap edge over the veteran when inside the 25-yard line on Sunday.

I think what we got in Week 1 is here to stay – 8-12 carries with 1-3 targets. If those opportunities aren’t coming at the doorstep of the end zone, that’s not the role of someone who is deserving of a lineup spot.

Mostert is hanging onto his RB2 status in my rankings, but it’s tenuous and if not for a few tough matchups by RBs in this range, he wouldn’t have that label.

I’m holding, but I’m nervous. The production has to come early in the season because the sledding gets tough when it matters most.

• Week 14 vs. Jets
• Week 16 vs. 49ers
• Week 17 at Browns
• Week 18 at Jets

Jaylen Wright and Jeff Wilson Jr.: The absence of Mostert alone puts both of these running backs on the Flex radar and should Achane even be limited, the push for a top 30 ranking will begin.

My lean is to favor the rookie in this situation, as he is the more explosive player that gives this offense the versatility it thrives on. Wilson is a steadying force and would likely split the available work with Wright, but I’m confident that the per touch production will slant in Wright’s favor.

The Bills have allowed the third most yards per carry after contact to opposing running backs since the beginning of last season — if they can’t wrap up Wright, we could see glimpses of rookie Achane in a different jersey number.

Wide Receivers

Khalil Shakir: I maintain my thought that this is the Buffalo receiver to roster. He showcased a nose for the end zone on a nice 11-yard catch-and-run against Arizona, a play set up by Cook going in motion to help Allen identify single coverage on Shakir.

The ability to scheme advantageous spots is massive, but those reads aren’t always going to go to the slot savant. Two of Shakir’s three catches in Week 1 came on third down, another positive development, though the volume of this passing game is going to make a low aDOT player like this a longshot to crack my top-30 until byes/injuries subtract from the positional player pool.

Curtis Samuel: The turf toe injury pretty clearly limited Samuel (30% route participation), and while he was able to haul in both of his targets, the ease with which the Bills worked in Mack Hollins (25 yards, TD) suggests that a rotation at the position is likely moving forward.

Samuel is not a must-roster player, but if you want to hold, understand that you are playing the long game and not likely to get any meaningful production while he rehabs on the fly.

Keon Coleman: The rookie led the Bills in catches (four), targets (five), and receiving yards (51) in his NFL debut, with a 28-yard grab highlighting his afternoon against the Cardinals.

Coleman was fine, but with Samuel compromised and Dalton Kincaid hardly used for some reason, this was an opportunity for Coleman to be better than “fine.”

The 90% route participation (Shakir: 70%) was encouraging, and if you want to bet on those Allen trends resulting in a breakout performance, I get it. But when you consider that, against an underwhelming defense, Buffalo spread out 2-5 targets to eight different players, I’m in no hurry to play any of these receivers.

Tyreek Hill: He’s inevitable, it really is just that simple.

Tyreek Hill was detained pregame and missed on a potential 51-yard touchdown in the early going. With the Jags playing well, it seemed like the season opener was going to be a dud.

If you blinked, you missed Hill running a crosser and running away from every Jaguar for an 80-yard touchdown. Steph Curry doesn’t make every shot, and Scottie Scheffler doesn’t hit every fairway, but over the course of a game/tournament, they get there.

Hill is that, and when weather isn’t an issue, this Miami offense is as reliable as any in the league.

Everyone knows where the targets are going in this offense, and they simply can’t stop it. You should never hesitate to play your Dolphins, especially in a game that is expected to be tight and in front of the Miami faithful.

Jaylen Waddle: I was hopeful that Jaylen Waddle’s speed would take away the defender’s angle on his 63-yard reception last week. He was unable to find paydirt, though the ability to land a splash play was a good reminder that this is a WR1 in a WR2’s role.

Waddle was dinged up early and only managed a 13.9% target share last week. Things went as poorly as they could for him and he was still fine. You’re playing him as a WR2 in all formats every single week.

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid: The list of players more disappointing than Kincaid in Week 1 wasn’t long, as he had just one catch on two targets for 11 yards. Buffalo hardly threw the ball in the first half, and no Bill went into halftime with multiple targets. And even when things opened up a bit late, their star tight end was nowhere to be found.

I’m annoyed, but I’m not worried.

Kincaid was on the field for 87.9% of snaps (Dawson Knox: 55.2%), and that is all we can ask for. His target that hit the ground came in the red zone, so there’s a world in which he saves what might be his lowest usage game of the season with a score.

To my eye, no receiver established himself as the alpha target earner in this top-10 offense last week, and that is why I continue to believe that Kincaid will lead this team in targets.

Hang in there – he’s still a top-five player at the position for me, and I expect him to showcase the potential we saw last season in this high-scoring game.

Jonnu Smith: Does it matter if a steak place offers above-average pasta? Not really – you’re never ordering it. You want to go to what the restaurant does well, and I can’t blame you.

Smith is Miami’s pasta while its star receivers are the steak. Smith saw just two targets on Sunday, and while his athletic profile is interesting in an offense that is going to put points on the board, the risk simply isn’t worth it.