We’re gearing up for Week 7 of fantasy football action, and with that, there are lots of questions about who to start and who to sit. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant running back in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 7 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Jones, RB | MIN (vs. DET)
Jones left Week 5 early with a hip injury, and while the Week 6 bye came at the perfect time, we’re talking about a 29-year-old back who is playing for an undefeated team that has bought itself the ability to be patient with injuries like this.
This is the eighth season of Jones’ career, and he’s missed time in six of them. Reporting out of Minnesota seems to be cautiously optimistic at the moment, but you’ll need to monitor this situation as we near kickoff.
Jones has a pair of top-10s on his 2024 ledger, and while I would project a lesser workload if he suits up this week, there’s no way around ranking him as a top-20 option and a starter in all formats.
Alexander Mattison, RB | LV (at LAR)
If you’re considering Mattison, you’re desperate and simply picking on a matchup. I don’t mind that approach (the Rams have allowed five running backs to clear 16 fantasy points and own the second-worst EPA rush defense in the league), and with Ameer Abdullah losing a goal-line fumble against the Steelers on Sunday, the path to 15-plus touches is reasonably clear.
As long as you are going into this week with eyes wide open (3.4 yards per carry this season and under 4.0 in each of the past three seasons), I’m fine with the spot start. Rams games have been played in a tight window of late (three straight games decided by fewer than seven points), and that keeps a player like Mattison involved for all 60 minutes.
I hope you have more upside on your roster somewhere, but if you’re running low on warm bodies, Mattison’s volume holds value.
Antonio Gibson, RB | NE (vs. JAX)
Gibson had a chance to impress last week, and he fell flat (13 carries for 19 yards). We are three years removed from Gibson being a featured back, and with the Patriots trusting him with just 61.9% of the RB carries with Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined, it’s clear that they don’t view him as a bell cow.
Drake Maye has generated some excitement in New England, but for me, the upside he brings doesn’t impact the backfield in a significant way. Once we get word that Stevenson is healthy, Gibson returns to a ranking outside of my Flex range and could conceivably be cut in a pinch.
Austin Ekeler, RB | WAS (vs. CAR)
Ekeler was responsible for three of Jayden Daniels’ first six Week 6 completions (23 yards) and played the role of movable weapon, even with Brian Robinson Jr. sidelined. For the season, the veteran running back has 27 more receiving than rushing yards (15 catches on 16 targets) a role that can serve as a viable one in a bye-week-replacement sense but not one that I am comfortable in backing once Robinson is back to handling the valuable touches.
One-quarter of Ekeler’s carries this season have failed to cross the line of scrimmage, a flaw that is going to keep him out of my Flex rankings more often than not, but holding a player like this at the end of your bench provides stability should injuries and/or bye weeks leave you short on options. His role isn’t going anywhere, and it will be enough to bail you out in times of need.
Bijan Robinson, RB | ATL (vs. SEA)
Week 6 was finally a breakout for Robinson this season, and I don’t care that it came against the Panthers – we have to start somewhere. He totaled 105 yards and a pair of scores in the easy win and now gets a Seattle defense that is taking on water.
The Seahawks have allowed a running back to clear 70 rushing yards six times this season, and Robinson is pretty clearly the favorite to do that this week. If the carry count can stabilize in the 14-17 range alongside his 3-5 targets, I see no reason why Robinson can’t return RB1 value moving forward, even with the acknowledgment that Tyler Allgeier isn’t going away.
With a player like this, it only requires a minor uptick in usage to make a huge difference on the fantasy scoreboard. This season, he’s producing 16.4% over expectation (2023: 0.8% below), and with 41.5% of his rush attempts picking up at least five yards, I feel confident in saying that his best days are ahead of him in 2024.
Braelon Allen, RB | NYJ (at PIT)
Allen was on the field for just 18.6% of New York’s offensive snaps last week against the Bills, his first time under 25% since his NFL debut. With Robert Saleh fired, the offense ran through Breece Hall, and I’m projecting that to be the case moving forward.
Allen is still a viable handcuff, but with the addition of Davante Adams to an offense that was already low in play count, Allen’s path to stand-alone value has all but disappeared. He’s a good player and might be a decent buy in dynasty formats after a few slow weeks, but in re-draft, his window to be an asset is closing in a hurry.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB | WAS (vs. CAR)
A right knee injury kept Robinson out of practice last week and resulted in his first DNP of the season. He was clearly limited in the Week 5 blowout win over the Browns, so it was telling that the team still elected to use him in scoring situations (two touchdowns).
B-Rob has scored in four of five games this season and has produced 9.1% over fantasy expectations. We’ve seen his vision make nice strides this season from last (yards per carry before contact up 31.4%), and in an offense that can produce in many ways, that growth is great to see.
You’ll want to make sure Robinson is back on the practice field ahead of this difficult matchup. Assuming that he is, he’s worked himself into the must-start tier at the position.
Breece Hall, RB | NYJ (at PIT)
From an extended week to injuries on the other side, everything lined up for Hall to have a strong night on Monday against the Bills — and guess what?
A talented running back in an elite spot came through; don’t you love it when that happens?
Hall racked up 169 scrimmage yards on 23 touches against the division rival, and it was the second time this season that he had both a 30-yard run and a 20-yard catch. The matchup with the Steelers is nothing like what we saw last week, and the addition of Davante Adams only adds to the number of moving pieces, but the talent is worthy of your trust in an offense that should be moving in the right direction, even if the overall production isn’t off the charts this weekend.
You paid top dollar so that Hall could give you a chance to win a title. With the Seahawks-Dolphins-Jaguars-Rams-Bills over the final five weeks of the fantasy season, he still might well deliver on that hope.
Bucky Irving, RB | TB (vs. BAL)
Irving had been working his way into a timeshare in this backfield, and when given the opportunity to be featured last week with Rachaad White ruled out (foot), the rookie didn’t miss. He turned 16 touches into 105 yards and a touchdown, producing 24.5% over expectation in the beatdown of the Saints.
My metrics are great, but nothing in a spreadsheet can properly detail the stiff arm of the year that he handed out, so when you’re setting lineups this week, I suggest having that on a loop to remind you of what he can do.
one of the most casually violent stiff arms you'll ever see from Bucky Irving pic.twitter.com/VHpXSZ4IQD
— Mike Renner (@mikerenner_)
This, of course, is a tougher matchup. Not only are the Ravens among the best at stopping the run, but I have serious questions about Tampa Bay’s ability to get Derrick Henry off the field. The schedule does Irving no favors over the next month, and that may create something of a buying window when the Bucs go on bye in Week 11.
- Week 12 at Giants
- Week 13 at Panthers
- Week 14 vs. Raiders
- Week 15 at Chargers
- Week 16 at Cowboys
- Week 17 vs. Panthers
If this backfield is his for that stretch, he’s going to project as a top-15 play with the potential to carry you to a championship.
Cam Akers, RB | MIN (vs. DET)
In Weeks 3-5, Akers averaged a pair of targets per game while producing 11.1% over expectation on his touches in a more featured role with Joe Mixon banged up. A shift to Minnesota puts him behind a similarly oft-injured veteran running back, though this time as a part of an offense that currently ranks fourth in pass rate over expectation.
There is certainly some wait-and-see potential here — the Vikings are coming off of their bye, and that means 12 straight weeks of games for a lead back that has missed multiple games in five of seven seasons. The lack of versatility in Akers’ profile creates a limited ceiling, but the touch floor would slide him in as a low-end RB2 as part of a productive offense should Aaron Jones miss time.
In the scope of Week 7, assuming that Jones is deemed to be healthy, Akers offers no lineup appeal against a slightly above-average Lions defense.
Chase Brown, RB | CIN (at CLE)
Brown seems to have usurped Zack Moss as the lead man in Cincinnati’s backfield (61.5% snap share last week against the Giants), and there is a bullish case to be made for the second half of the season as he has produced at least 14.7% over expectation in five straight contests.
As he has wrestled this primary role away from Moss, Brown has scored in three straight games (all top 24 fantasy finishes), recorded a 15+ yard rush in four straight, and caught multiple balls in five of six.
Brown’s versatility and explosive playmaking potential are assets on this pass-first team that, in spite of what we saw on Sunday night, will need to threaten 30 points most weeks to remain competitive.
Without the ability to assume north of 15 touches, Brown is only a Flex play for me this week, though I could see him moving into the top 20 at the position sooner rather than later.
Chuba Hubbard, RB | CAR (at WAS)
The Panthers were blasted in the season opener. The Saints hung 47 points on them and Hubbard touched the ball only six times in a game that was over before many had realized it had started.
Let’s say you benched Hubbard the following week because of Bryce Young, then you saw enough in the loss (6.4 yards per carry with five targets) to play him in Week 3. That means that, in the four games in which you’ve started Carolina’s lead back, you have a back who is pacing for 1,730 rushing yards and 72 receptions.
There has never been a 1,700/70 season in the history of the NFL.
The Commanders have allowed at least 14.5 fantasy points to a running back in five of six contests this season, slowing only a Browns offense that has gotten it its own way as much as anyone up to this point.
David Montgomery, RB | DET (at MIN)
Is there an easier player to project right now than Montgomery? He’s as good a bet to be in that 13-18 touch range with slightly above-average efficiency and a rushing touchdown as anyone in the league.
The last part would normally scare me, but that would be ignoring the facts. The last regular-season game in which Montgomery failed to score came against a Denver Broncos team that was led in passing (Russell Wilson), rushing (Samje Perine), and receiving (Jerry Jeudy) that day by players no longer with the franchise.
Montgomery has multiple red-zone touches in every game this season. What might surprise you is that he has the fifth-highest boom/bust rate (rate of 10+ yard carries compared to the rate of carries that failed to gain yardage) in the league since joining Detroit (Christian McCaffrey, Cook, teammate Jahmyr Gibbs, and Aaron Jones rank 1-4).
Montgomery, of course, scored in both games against Minnesota a season ago, though it’s worth noting that none of his 27 carries in those games gained even a dozen yards, and only once this season has a running back reached 12 PPR points against the undefeated Vikings (Jordan Mason, 17.4).
What does all that mean? Maybe it’s closer to a floor than a ceiling spot for the veteran, but Montgomery’s floor in 2024 is a top-20 producer at the position and a starter in all formats.
Derrick Henry, RB | BAL (at TB)
We are running out of superlatives when it comes to Henry and his production as a Raven.
OK, so that’s a lie. We are never going to run out of positive notes for someone producing at this level. Here is some information from our weekly NFL Week 7 Stats and Insights piece:
“The Ravens have rattled off four straight wins, and if you extend Derrick Henry’s rushing production for those contests over an entire season, he will finish with 2,440 rushing yards (NFL record: 2,105) and 25.5 rushing touchdowns (NFL record: 28).”
The Buccaneers aren’t the stout run defense they were a season ago (27th in EPA and four instances in which an opposing running back has reached 17 fantasy points), making this another smash spot for the King.
Devin Singletary, RB | NYG (vs. PHI)
The groin injury has resulted in consecutive DNPs for Singletary, and given the rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s production (35 carries for 179 yards and three scores, not to mention seven grabs), the odds of this team slow-playing the recovery are increasing.
Singletary has struggled in this limited offense (3.9 yards per carry), and this isn’t exactly a great spot for a back without form or full health. The Eagles have faced Josh Jacobs, Bijan Robinson, and Alvin Kamara — they’ve yet to allow more than 16.2 PPR points to a single running back this season.
At best, Singletary is a bench and hold. If he’s healthy and used behind Tracy, there’s a world in which he is on the chopping block soon.
De’Von Achane, RB | MIA (at IND)
Achane was knocked out of Week 5 with a concussion. While that typically comes with a minimum of one DNP, the Week 6 bye came at the perfect time. You’ll want to follow Pro Football Network’s Miami Dolphins reporter Adam Beasley’s work when it comes to this situation, but I’m operating under the assumption that he will be available and ready to lead this backfield.
This is truly the measure of which unit is more inept – Achane hasn’t posted a top-30 finish since Tua Tagovailoa went down, but the Colts are as friendly to opposing running games as anyone, having already allowed seven backs to reach double-digit PPR fantasy points (Joe Mixon and Tank Bigsby both lit them up for over 25 points).
In a league geared toward the offense, I tend to lean in that direction in matchups like this, and that is how I land with Achane as a top-15 option. He’s like Saquon Barkley in that every touch is a touch in scoring position, and with 21 catches on 23 targets this season, his efficiency in the passing game should be enough to land him in starting lineups at the bare minimum.
J.K. Dobbins, RB | LAC (at ARI)
Do you know those movie scenes where the main character is “hot” at the craps table and rolling in the money? If so, then you’re probably familiar with the down-on-his-luck scene that comes 60-90 minutes later.
I can’t help but feel like Dobbins’ managers are approaching the confusing middle ground, between the elation and the bewilderment. Gus Edwards (ankle) was put on injured reserve last week, and Jim Harbaugh put the ball in the belly of his lead back 25 times, eight more than his previous career high. In fact, three of his seven highest carry counts for his career have come this season.
But can he sustain? With another 12 carries, he will have the second-most voluminous season on the ground of his career. With one-third of Dobbins’ carries over the past two contests failing to gain yardage, that down-on-his-luck scene could be closer than we want to believe.
He’s still a low-end RB2 for me in the scope of Week 7, as he’s facing the fourth-worst rush defense in terms of success rate. But be careful in assuming that you can ride this gravy train to the finish line.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | DET (at MIN)
The sap share and raw fantasy point totals this year mirror that of Gibbs’ standout rookie campaign, but there have been incremental signs of growth that have me optimistic that the best could be yet to come from this explosive back.
Through six games this season, his fantasy points per target are up 34.1% while being stopped at the line of scrimmage less often and picking up 10+ yards at a higher rate. A true explosion is unlikely to happen as long as David Montgomery is active (over 16 touches just once this season), but there is value in stability, and we are getting that as a part of one of the league’s best offenses.
Gibbs impressed in Week 16’s win last season in Minnesota (100 yards on 19 touches), and while I’m not projecting that touch count, another efficient afternoon should be in store for what could be the best game of the week.
James Conner, RB | ARI (vs. LAC)
Reports surfaced following Sunday’s loss that Conner’s limited reps in the second half were not the result of a nagging injury but a decision the team made based on the script of the game.
Well, that’s not good.
To be honest with you, I would have rather heard that he was dealing with an injury and the team wanted to save him for a quarter of winnable games on deck as they try to save their season.
The Chargers own the best EPA rush defense in the league, and after a hot start to the season (consecutive top 10s), Conner’s average weekly finish is RB30. I think it’s safe to say that things are trending in the wrong direction for the veteran, but I wouldn’t dismiss him quickly like what we’ve done with Rachaad White.
Conner has produced 11.1% over his expectations this season and has continued to score at a high level in our elusive metric. He remains a top-20 running back for me this season and moving forward, even if it’s closer to RB20 than RB10.
James Cook, RB | BUF (vs. TEN)
Cook entered Monday Night Football with a questionable tag due to a toe injury and was ruled out 90 minutes before kickoff, marking his first DNP of his young career. It’s obviously a short work week heading into this game with the Titans, but his sitting last week (hopefully it didn’t cost you your matchup!) helps his prospects this week as he was thought to be on the right side of questionable.
How you value Cook in this matchup largely depends on how you see the game script playing out. In three blowouts (two wins and one loss), Buffalo’s RB1 averaged 12.3 touches, but in the two close games in which he was a part, he handled 22 touches in both.
My general thought is that this game would skew toward a competitive game due to how Tennessee looks to limit the possession count (31st in pace) — that’s the good news. The bad news is that this Titans run defense is far from a pushover.
Through six weeks, they rank third in rush defense EPA, and that’s not a noisy stat as much as I’ve been dismissing what Seattle has done up to this point. De’Von Achane, Josh Jacobs, and D’Andre Swift combined to turn 38 touches into just 16.7 PPR fantasy points against this group — that doesn’t happen by accident.
There’s a tier of featured backs in tough spots this week (James Conner, Najee Harris, and Kareem Hunt), and Cook lands right in the middle of them as a part of my low-end RB2 tier for Week 7.
Jaylen Wright, RB | MIA (at IND)
Wright’s profile in Miami’s offense is exciting, and we saw glimpses of it in the Dolphins’ Week 5 win over the Patriots (13 carries for 86 yards) after De’Von Achane left with a concussion.
The expectation is for Achane to return this week, and with Raheem Mostert active in an offense that appears destined to be stuck in the mud until Tua Tagovailoa returns, there’s no space for the rookie to carve out a fantasy-relevant niche at the moment, even in a great matchup.
That’s not to say that Wright isn’t deserving of a roster spot. Should Achane suffer a setback this week or struggle to pass protect, I’d have Wright ranked over Mostert as the most valuable member of the backfield and an RB2.
Even if all three RBs are healthy this week, that assures us of nothing long-term, and that is the case for stashing Wright. We think better days are ahead for Miami’s offense as a whole, and Mostert/Achane remain health risks.
Jerome Ford, RB | CLE (vs. CIN)
A hamstring yanked Ford off the field early in the losing effort to the Eagles on Sunday, and with Nick Chubb expected to make his season debut, his time as a Flex option has come to an end.
I wouldn’t cut ties with him given Chubb’s uncertainty, but he’s now strictly a handcuff that is highly unlikely to hold stand-alone value in a below-average offense as a secondary back.
Even if the injury results in missed time, I’m holding Ford. I don’t think he’s a special player, but there’s a path to work for him that doesn’t include much to happen and the Browns face the Bengals/Dolphins during the fantasy Super Bowl. Ford is unlikely to get back into my lineup this season, but the small chance that he is the lead back at the perfect time is enough to hold my interest for now.
Joe Mixon, RB | HOU (at GB)
In a perfect world, when we get running backs returning from injury, they are deployed the way Mixon was in Week 6. After sitting for nearly a month, the veteran was featured with 15 touches, and he earned every ounce of that work (132 yards and two touchdowns).
Dameon Pierce added a 54-yard touchdown run after this game was in hand, and while you obviously don’t get credit for that, it was another positive sign for this offensive line. The Texans were a much more neutral offense through two weeks with Mixon active than they were following the injury; with Nico Collins on the shelf for at least another three games, Mixon is a must-start across all formats until otherwise noted.
Jonathan Taylor, RB | IND (vs. MIA)
This ankle injury has now cost Taylor consecutive games, and a third straight is possible, especially if this team wants to enter a divisional matchup in Week 8 (at Houston) near full strength.
Taylor’s situation is pretty cut-and-dry: If the Colts activate him, I’m doing the same. There is the Rhamondre Stevenson class of running back where I’m willing to wait and see, but JT is comfortably ahead of that (he was a top-12 running back in his two games) range.
The Dolphins have allowed at least 18 fantasy points to a running back four times in five games this season (the one instance where that wasn’t the case was a game against the Jags in which Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby combined for 19.2 points).
This is a soft landing spot, and one which I feel good about should Taylor be able to return to the practice field this week.
Jordan Mason, RB | SF (vs. KC)
Mason entered Week 6 having been an RB1 in three of five games and was running well (82 yards on 10 touches) before suffering a shoulder injury. Kyle Shanahan sounded optimistic about his lead running back during the halftime interview, but after handling the first carry of the third quarter, Mason’s evening was done.
Rookie Isaac Guerendo picked up the slack (10 carries for 99 yards, a stat line that would have included a score if he elected to finish a 76-yard run instead of kneeling just shy to help ice the game) and is a deserving addition in all formats.
As good as Christian McCaffrey is, we have an extended sample of running backs in this system thriving, and should Mason sit this week, Guerendo’s path to a featured role is about as clear as it gets (Patrick Taylor Jr. would be RB2 on the depth chart in this instance).
The matchup is a concern. Bijan Robinson scored 13.2 PPR points against the Chiefs in Week 3, serving as the high water mark for the position against the defending champs this season (limiting J.K. Dobbins and Zack Moss is one thing, but Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry have both also played the Chiefs this season). In fact, the Henry, Robinson, and Kamara trio totaled 40 carries in their K.C. matchup and none of them had a 10-yard rush.
What we saw from Guerendo last week is enough for me to drop my touch projection for Mason, even if completely cleared, but that’s nitpicking. Mason (5.3 yards per carry this season with an 18+ yard touch in every game this season) will be ranked closer to RB12 than RB5 if he’s active, and Guerendo shifts from off my radar to a mid-range RB2 if the lead role is handed over to him.
Josh Jacobs, RB | GB (vs. HOU)
Jacobs’ role isn’t a concern in the least (19.8 touches per game), but he’s been inefficient, something that he’s been for the majority of his career. In five of six games this season, he’s produced more than 10% below expectation, a problem given the play of Jordan Love and the potential for this team to embrace an increase in pass rate.
On a positive note, the Packers schemed up a pass play for Jacobs inside the Cardinals’ 30-yard line on Sunday, a sign that they believe he can be a part of this offense in a variety of ways (10 targets in the three games since Love returned). It’s clear that Green Bay believes in Emanuel Wilson, as he continues to get first-quarter work. But with Jacobs’ feature role not in any doubt, you can continue to run him out there with confidence.
Kareem Hunt, RB | KC (at SF)
Hunt was nothing short of impressive against the Saints on Monday Night Football before the Week 6 bye (117 yards and a score on 28 touches, good for RB5 honors) and while the production was promising, I was more encouraged by him being given 84.4% of the running back carries.
It stands to reason that Hunt is still rounding into form, so I’m not yet sweating the fact that none of his 41 rush attempts have gained 10 yards. The 49ers rank 12th in rush defense EPA and fifth in yards per carry allowed to running backs before contact, two limiting factors when trying to get a feel for Hunt’s upside.
At the tail end of my RB2 tier sits featured backs that I don’t feel great about, and Hunt is smack dab in the middle of that range (for reference, Najee Harris and J.K. Dobbins are also a part of that mix).
Kenneth Walker III, RB | SEA (at ATL)
Walker has been very Alvin Kamara-ish this season, and that’s as high a compliment I can pay to a fantasy running back. Much like Kamara under Derek Carr, Walker is either the focal point of Geno Smith’s offense when the game is close or the preferred option when playing from behind.
Walker’s PPR totals by week:
- Week 1: 16.3 rushing points
- Week 4: 24.0 rushing points
- Week 5: 12.7 receiving points
- Week 6: 11.7 receiving points
Kamara did a bit of both in his Week 4 meeting with the Falcons (77 rushing yards and a TD with seven catches for 42 yards) in a close game, a script that I like to mirror this one with Seattle on extended rest.
Walker is an RB1 for me in all formats this week and will be heavily featured in my Main Slate DFS lineups.
Kyren Williams, RB | LAR (vs. LV)
Williams has been nothing short of great this season despite the number of moving pieces through the first month and a half of the season. He’s posted back-to-back-to-back top-13 finishes at the position (RB3 in total PPR points from Weeks 3-5), producing 21.1% over expectation during those games.
Some might worry about Cooper Kupp’s potential return and the Rams’ move from a below-average pass rate over expectation to an above-average one, but I’m taking the opposite approach.
This season, Williams has run into a loaded box 33.7% of the time, more than double his rate from a season ago (16.7%). I’m happy to sacrifice a touch or two if it means backing defenses off the line of scrimmage.
The Rams should be able to move the ball on Sunday, and any week in which that is the case, the scoring equity puts Williams into my top 10 without much concern.
Najee Harris, RB | PIT (vs. NYJ)
The touchdown was a thing of beauty as Harris flashed the type of agility that we’ve wanted to see from him for years.
NAJEE HARRIS ARE YOU SERIOUS!?
📺: #PITvsLV on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/6uP3rKdzdD— NFL (@NFL)
In total, he wrung up 122 yards against the Raiders on 16 touches. It was easily his best performance of the season (his longest gain and his first touchdown) and he draws a Jets defense that is on short rest after giving up 152 yards to Ray Davis on Monday night.
The likely move to Russell Wilson adds scoring equity to Harris’ portfolio, and with Jaylen Warren carrying six times for just seven yards last week, we might just have a bell cow in Pittsburgh.
For the season as a whole, the Jets are an average run defense and Harris is an average back in terms of efficiency. I worry that this is a low-possession game, and that caps the upside for all players involved, but I’m looking for Harris to assume roughly 70% of the running back carries in this coin-flip game; that results in an average RB2 ranking on my end.
Nick Chubb, RB | CLE (vs. CIN)
Chubb is expected to take the field on Sunday, 398 days since the last time we had the pleasure of seeing him on the field. It’s a plus matchup (the Bengals have allowed over 21 fantasy points to an RB three times this season: Tyrone Tracy Jr. last week and both Rhamondre Stevenson and Chuba Hubbard before that), and Jerome Ford is banged up, but after the Amari Cooper trade on Tuesday, it’s clear that this franchise isn’t too focused on 2024.
I have Chubb penciled in to lead this backfield in carries this week, but I’d be shocked if they gave him anything close to a full workload. I’m hopeful that our patience up to this point on Chubb is rewarded with late-season usage, but he’s certainly the type of back for whom I’ll wait to have proof of health instead of trying to get ahead of it.
Rachaad White, RB | TB (vs. BAL)
A foot injury kept White out of action last week and allowed Bucky Irving to continue to impress (24.5% production over expectation in the blowout of the Saints). The dangerous carries were trending in the direction of the rookie before the injury, and I think it’s now safe to label this as a flipped backfield.
White has produced 18% under expectation this season and averages just 3.7 yards per carry across his 39 NFL games. He’s a viable situational back, but are we sure there is anything on a football field that he does better than Irving? When you factor in a handful of Sean Tucker touches that now seem inevitable, White, who was a third-round pick less than two months ago, shouldn’t be in consideration for your starting lineup.
Raheem Mostert, RB | MIA (at IND)
After missing nearly a month, the Dolphins leaned heavily on Mostert in Week 5, giving him 21 touches in the win over New England despite a very modest 54.7% snap share. Of course, Achane’s concussion is what fueled the usage, but it was good to see Miami confident in his health, which gives us some hope for the remainder of the season.
Seeing “at IND” next to a player is going to create the desire to lock him into your lineup, but I can’t get there in this Tyler Huntley-led offense. If Tua was under center, I’d green light starting multiple backs against the defense that allows the fifth-most yards per carry after contact to opposing running backs. However, with limited scoring equity, I can’t get Mostert inside of my top 30.
This week, he falls into the Zach Charbonnet bucket of running backs where you can play him if absolutely pressed, but one that I’d be moving away from in anything but a dire situation.
Ray Davis, RB | BUF (vs. TEN)
Ty Johnson got the start for Cook on Monday night, but Davis was the featured man on the first drive. Johnson was later the recipient of Josh Allen’s longest pass ever to a running back, a 42-yard scramble drill that only works when you have a superhero under center like Buffalo has the luxury of.
Cook wasn’t far from suiting up for Week 6 — that leads me to believe that he gives it a go this week. But with last week serving as clarity when it comes to the hierarchy of this backfield, Davis is a must-roster player.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | NE (vs. JAX)
The Jaguars have plenty of problems, but they are contacting running backs, on average, less than 2.5 yards downfield, a rate that ranks behind only elite run defenses in Baltimore and Kansas City. With Stevenson trying to come back from a foot injury and producing the worst per-play EPA mark of his career, he’s far from a safe play should he suit up.
Assuming he is back in the mix, his three top-12 finishes this season earn him the nod as a Flex option ahead of Antonio Gibson, though the range of outcomes is wide in a new-look offense that offers more athleticism under center.
Gibson has been productive enough to continue to see 8-12 touches, a role that is just annoying enough to hold Stevenson back from RB2 status, but not enough to hold standalone value in an offense that is still limited.
Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI (vs. NYG)
Among RBs, only Aaron Jones has cleared 14.6 fantasy points against the Giants this season, and Barkley hasn’t been a top-20 producer at the position in consecutive games after three straight top 10s to open his career as an Eagle.
Relax. This happens to just about every running back at one point or another during the long season.
The problem last week was with the offensive line — Barkley picked up one foot (not a yard, a foot) per carry before contact. The overall production of the Philadelphia line might prove to be a conversation point, but I’m not worried about it against a defense that allows the fourth-most yards per carry to running backs before contact.
We’ve seen it plenty in the past: Barkley only needs one carry to offset a dozen bad ones. I like his chances of hitting a home run in this matchup and think he could produce top-10 numbers even without one as long as the Eagles can control this game as a three-point road favorite.
Sean Tucker, RB | TB (vs. BAL)
I’ve gotten a lot of questions about the former Syracuse product this week after his role in the beatdown of the Saints last week, and while I was impressed, I’m not sure it means anything moving forward.
Todd Bowles stirred up the conversation when he mentioned being impressed with Tucker and having a “three-headed monster” when it comes to the backfield. It’s not that I don’t believe him, I just have a hard time seeing the second-year back out-earn Bucky Irving or Rachaad White (Week 6 DNP, foot), and a handful of touches per week isn’t roster-worthy.
If we were to get word that White’s injury is more serious than initially thought, then we can talk, but in today’s NFL, supporting two running backs is an uphill battle for most offenses, let alone three. I resisted the urge to add Tucker this week off waivers — as a free add, there’s no real cost incurred, but burning a waiver priority or FAAB isn’t worth it in my opinion.
Tank Bigsby, RB | JAX (vs. NE)
With Travis Etienne Jr. now being labeled as “week-to-week,” this is the time for Bigsby to shine. The game script won’t be an issue because the Patriots have yet to prove capable of scoring points in a neutral game state against just about anyone, meaning a career touch count isn’t just possible, it’s projected.
Despite limited usage, he already has four gains of 25+ yards with plenty of that work coming after the defense got to him. On his 41 carries this season, 80.8% of his yards have come after contact. That could be spun a variety of ways, but in this matchup, I’m not sure it matters as the Pats rank 26th in running back yards allowed both before and after contact.
The lack of prowess in the passing game (one target this season) is what keeps him outside of my top 15, but he’s pretty clearly a strong RB2 in all formats for as long as Etienne is on the shelf (Jacksonville gets Green Bay next week and travels to Philadelphia for Week 9).
Tony Pollard, RB | TEN (at BUF)
Pollard has four top-20 finishes on his 2024 résumé, with the lone exception being the result of the game script: Tennessee ran the ball just 11 times against the Packers in Week 3 in a 16-point loss.
In short, Pollard has been much closer to the weekly option that we assumed he was going to be a season ago (2.2% over expectation this season compared to 16.4% below with the Cowboys in 2023). He’s been running as hard as anyone in the league through six weeks (4.04 yards per carry after contact), putting him in position to produce a strong stat line against a Bills defense that allows the third-most yards to backs before contact per carry.
I’ll stop shy of saying that he puts up 169 yards on Buffalo like Breece Hall did on Monday night, but if Tennessee can keep this game competitive, a top-10 performance is a reasonable expectation.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB | JAX (vs. NE)
Doug Pederson came out on Monday and labeled Etienne as “week-to-week” as a result of a hamstring injury suffered early in Week 5.
Thank God.
Not that he’s hurt, but that we don’t have to worry about touch distribution in Jacksonville’s backfield for Week 7. When both Etienne and Tank Bigsby are healthy, this is going to be a difficult situation to project, but it’s rare for a player to be labeled “week-to-week” and not miss at least some time.
As for Etienne’s profile, your eyes aren’t deceiving you — he’s not the same guy he was last season:
- -17.2% production compared to expectation (2023: +8.5%)
- 1.09 fantasy points per target (2023: 1.58)
- 2.43 yards per carry after contact (2023: 2.87)
We will have to struggle with his ranking in future weeks, but Etienne should remain rostered as he recovers from this injury.
Trey Sermon, RB | IND (vs. MIA)
Sermon has more than a 2:1 carry edge over Tyler Goodson over the two weeks as a replacement option for Jonathan Taylor, but that role might not last much longer. Over that stretch, he’s turned 28 carries into just 67 yards, while Goodson’s 13 totes have netted 77 yards (Goodson also out-targeted Sermon 5-0 last week).
The scary part? The deeper you dive into Sermon’s rushing profile, the worse it gets. Across those two starts, 41.8% of his rushing yards came on two carries, and for the season, 37.8% of his attempts have failed to gain yardage.
In theory, the game script shouldn’t be a massive issue in this game. But if the touches aren’t productive, I don’t care how many looks he gets. With Taylor sitting, Sermon is a bail-me-out-of-trouble Flex option at best.
Ty Chandler, RB | MIN (vs. DET)
Chandler was unable to impress in London (Week 5), picking up just 30 yards on 14 carries as Aaron Jones departed with a hip injury against the Jets. In fact, Chandler has struggled to live up to the promise that he showed last season (4.5 yards per carry) for the majority of 2024 — under 2.5 ypc in four of five contests.
Chandler’s role with an active Jones isn’t near fantasy-worthy right now, and I don’t expect that to change. That said, Jones is far from a lock to play on Sunday, and Chandler did carry 14 times for 69 yards against the Lions in Week 18 last season. Should he be named the starter, Chandler will rank as a viable Flex play in a game that should see points put on the board.
Ty Johnson, RB | BUF (vs. TEN)
Johnson got the first carry on Monday night and that means he was the starter, but that title didn’t prove descriptive as Ray Davis out-touched him 10-4 through the first three drives. I tend to believe the lopsided early work was more the result of identifying a hot hand than anything else. But the usage was telling and paints the picture of Johnson being multiple injuries away from a viable role.
I’d want to make sure that Cook is trending toward playing before cutting Johnson, but once we get that sort of report, you can feel fine about moving on.
Tyjae Spears, RB | TEN (at BUF)
We were all impressed with Spears as a third-round rookie, as he gave the Titans no choice but to keep him involved, even in an offense that revolved around Derrick Henry. With Henry taking his talents to Baltimore this offseason and Tennessee making moves to suggest an opening up of their offense, Spears was labeled as a sleeper candidate for many, especially with Tony Pollard coming off of a poor season as the Cowboys’ featured back.
As it turns out, Tennessee likes Spears in his limited and not fantasy-friendly role. He’s cleared eight touches just once this season and is now battling a hamstring injury that sounds like it’ll sideline him for at least a week … if not more.
If you’ve been holding out hope, you can cut ties. The lack of Spears over the next two games makes Pollard even more appealing, as Tennessee’s best defense on the road in Buffalo and Detroit might be a ball-control offense.
Tyler Allgeier, RB | ATL (vs. SEA)
Do we owe Arthur Smith an apology?
Allgeier is the clear leader in our boom/bust metric (simply the rate of 10+ yard rushes compared to the rate of carries that failed to gain yardage) at 5.9% and is fresh off of his first top-30 fantasy finish of the season.
Allgeier’s snap-rate splits:
- Weeks 1-3: 20.7%
- Weeks 4-6: 38.5%
We aren’t yet to the point where I’m ranking him as a viable stand-alone asset (Week 6 was his first game with more than 10 touches this season), but we aren’t far from it. It wouldn’t shock me if he was again productive against an overrated Seahawks defense that gave up 228 yards on the ground last week to the 49ers.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB | NYG (vs. PHI)
Devin Singletary’s status obviously dictates much of the math here, but how can we not be surprised by the kid? Tracy posted the first Giants RB finish inside the top 10 this season (107 total yards and a touchdown) against the Bengals and has been a top-20 producer at the position in both of his starts.
This is one of those unique situations when it comes to rankings. If Singletary plays, I’d have him tentatively penciled in as the starter in an average Flex play. If he sits, Tracy vaults into my RB2 tier, as it would mean a featured role against a defense that ranks 27th in yards allowed per carry before contact to running backs this season.
This is shaping up to be a true “if you have two, you don’t have any” situation where the presence of both results in a lack of stability given the unknown touch distribution.
Zach Charbonnet, RB | SEA (at ATL)
Charbonnet is averaging seven touches per game when Walker starts this season (20 per game in the two contests as the lead RB). But while Charbonnet runs hard, he simply doesn’t have the ball enough to hold Flex appeal.
The second-year back is a top-five handcuff in the NFL right now, and that makes him very much worthy of rostering. If injuries are ravaging your roster, Charbonnet comes in below receivers with a consistent role in a good spot when it comes to my Flex rankings (behind names like Ladd McConkey, Jerry Jeudy, or Dontayvion Wicks).
Zack Moss, RB | CIN (at CLE)
Moss played over 58% of the snaps in each of the first five weeks this season, peaking at 82% in Week 2’s loss to the Chiefs. But his rate checked in at 46.2% last week and has him fading out of lineups.
With this being a committee, Moss deserves to remain on rosters, if for no other reason than he is an injury to Chase Brown away from a featured role on a top-10 offense. That said, if the touch count is capped, we need a level of rushing upside that we simply haven’t seen this season. Moss doesn’t yet have a 10-yard rush in October or a 20-yard carry this season, leading me to believe that this is Brown’s role until proven otherwise.
The Browns’ defense is as stingy as years past, but only once this season has a running back hit 15 PPR points against them this season (Devin Singletary). I find it unlikely that Cincinnati will add a name to that list with a nearly even split.
Zamir White, RB | LV (at LAR)
A nagging groin injury cost White his second consecutive game, and while this is a plus matchup, rostering him is aggressive, let alone starting him.
This summer, the idea behind drafting White was based solely on volume. We saw the Raiders give him 20+ touches in four straight games to end last season with Josh Jacobs sidelined. Thus, we assumed that, given White’s ADP, simply holding onto that role would be enough to return value.
White hasn’t been productive when active (3.1 yards per carry with his last catch coming more than a month ago), and the role is no longer a certainty. If you’re holding onto White, it’s more of a statement on the lack of options on your waiver wire than any level of confidence that he walks back into an impactful role moving forward.
