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Whether you’re setting your fantasy football lineups or you need just a bit more information before getting in on the NFL betting action at your favorite sportsbook, we’ve got you covered here at Pro Football Network with the most important stats, notes, and insights for every NFL matchup in Week 7.
Bye Week Schedule
- Week 7: Bears, Cowboys
- Week 9: Steelers, 49ers
- Week 10: Browns, Packers, Raiders, Seahawks
- Week 11: Cardinals, Panthers, Giants, Buccaneers
- Week 12: Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Saints, Jets
- Week 14: Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Commanders
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints (TNF)
Denver Broncos
Team: Thursday night starts a four-week run during which the Broncos play in four different cities, a stretch that wraps with trips to Baltimore and Kansas City.
QB: Bo Nix has four touchdown passes on 60 attempts over the past two weeks (his first four starts: one TD pass on 138 attempts).
Offense: The Broncos have gone three-and-out on 45.1% of their drives this season – only twice in the past 20 seasons has a Denver team finished north of 40% (2011 and 2016).
Defense: The Broncos have allowed just 96 points this season, 104 fewer than a season ago and their fewest since the 2009 season.
Fantasy: Courtland Sutton made one of the better touchdown catches you’ll see on Sunday and, despite the limitations of this offense, has managed to finish as WR31 or better in three of the past four weeks.
Betting: The Broncos are seeking their third straight road cover, something this franchise hasn’t done since 2020 (3-0 stretch from Weeks 2-6).
New Orleans Saints
Team: Through two weeks this season, the Saints were averaging 45.5 points and allowing 14.5 per game. In the four games since, 19.0 PPG and 29.5 PPG allowed.
QB: Spencer Rattler led a Saints team that scored 27 points in the second quarter on Sunday – Patrick Mahomes (Week 2, 2023) is the only other QB to lead such a second quarter over the past 23 months.
Offense: In Weeks 1-2, the Saints averaged 4.33 points per drive and punted on just 14.3% of drives. In the four weeks since, 1.64 points were scored per drive and a 40.5% punt rate.
Defense: The Saints have allowed 253 and 254 receiving yards after the catch the last two weeks. Along with the 2019 Arizona Cardinals, New Orleans is the second team since 2000 to allow 250+ YAC in back-to-back games.
Fantasy: Rashid Shaheed caught only one of seven targets last week against the Bucs, but he gave you a 54-yard punt return for a touchdown – he has a 40-plus yard gain in four of six weeks this season. He’s talented enough to hold for now as we await a timeline on his knee injury
Betting: The Saints are just 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight home primetime games.
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
New England Patriots
Team: The Patriots haven’t started 1-6 or worse since 1992 (0-7). They ended that year 2-14 and took QB Drew Bledsoe first overall in the following NFL Draft.
QB: Drake Maye threw two touchdowns of 10+ air yards on Sunday. The Patriots had 0 Pass TDs traveling that far entering Week 6, one of three teams without a Pass TD of that kind (along with the Rams and Broncos).
Offense: The Patriots have started a different offensive line combination in each of their first six games, and they are the only team to start a different offensive line in every game this season. New England has allowed at least a 30% pressure rate in 12 straight games, the second-longest active streak behind the Vikings (18 straight).
Defense: New England’s defense was feared early (6.9 air yards per throw against), but that hasn’t been the case since (10.4).
Fantasy: DeMario Douglas hauled in six of nine targets for 92 yards and a score against the Texans last week – he finished the week as a top 10 receiver, and it was the first time this season a New England receiver finished as a top 20 option this season.
Third Drake Maye touchdown pass of the day!
📺: #HOUvsNE on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/wx1KyxB7uR— NFL (@NFL)
Betting: The Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS this season and haven’t had a winning ATS record through the first five games of a season since Tom Brady left town.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: The Jags closed last season 1-5 and are now 1-5 this season. This run comes after a stretch in which they won 13 of 16 regular-season games.
QB: Trevor Lawrence has been intercepted in three of his past four games and sacked at least three times in four of six contests this season.
Offense: The Jags lit up the Colts for 37 points in their only win this season – that’s also their only game this season with more than 20 points scored.
Defense: Jacksonville allowed a touchdown on all four Chicago red zone trips last week and has now allowed a touchdown on 15 of 19 red zone drives over the past five weeks.
Fantasy: Travis Etienne doesn’t have a 15-yard gain in three straight games (9.5% of Tank Bigsby’s touches this season have gained more than 25 yards).
Betting: The Jaguars are 3-9 ATS over their past 12 games, but at least they’ve come through for over bettors in three of their past four.
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
Seattle Seahawks
Team: For the third time in four seasons, the Seahawks have a negative point differential (-4) through six games – they outscored the opposition nine straight seasons prior.
QB: Geno Smith’s in-pocket Passer Rating was 102.0 in 2022. It dropped to 92.5 last season and sits at 85.8 through six weeks this season. His pass TD% has declined, and his INT% has increased each of those seasons.
Offense: Seattle converted 48.1% of their red zone drives last season into TDs. This season, they are nine-of-14 (64.3%).
Defense: In Weeks 1-3, the Seahawks allowed just 4.4 yards per play in a light QB schedule (Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Skyland Thompson). Since, 5.5 yards per play against increased quarterback play (Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, and Brock Purdy).
Fantasy: Walker has been very Alvin Kamara-ish this season, and that’s as high a compliment as I can pay to a fantasy running back. Much like Kamara under Derek Carr, Walker is either the focal point of Geno Smith’s offense when the game is close or the preferred option when playing from behind.
Walker PPR Splits By Week
- Week 1, rushing points: 16.3
- Week 4, rushing points: 24.0
- Week 5, receiving points: 12.7
- Week 6, receiving points: 11.7
Betting: Seattle started Week 6 on Thursday night hosting the 49ers – unders are 9-2-2 (81.8%) since the start of 2021 when they play on extended rest.
Atlanta Falcons
Team: This is the first time the Falcons have had more wins than losses through six games since opening 4-2 in 2016, the year of their last division title.
QB: Kirk Cousins has averaged north of 11 yards per completion in five straight games, one away from matching the longest such streak of his career (Weeks 2-6 in 2014 with Washington).
Offense: Despite having two viable running backs, the Falcons continue to use play-action at the lowest rate in the league (9.3%).
Defense: How teams are attacking this defense has completely changed. Last season, they had the fourth-highest opponent, aDOT (8.6 yards), but this season, they have the lowest (5.7).
Fantasy: Drake London has been a top-20 receiver in four of the past five weeks.
Betting: Atlanta’s come-from-behind, overtime cover against the Bucs in Week 5 has been the exception recently, not the rule — they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.
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Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills
Tennessee Titans
Team: The Titans have 10 turnovers through five games for the first time since 2015, a season in which Tennessee went 3-13.
QB: Will Levis has had a turnover in nine straight games, the second-longest active streak behind Patrick Mahomes (10). Levis has been turnover-free in only two of his 14 career games: his career debut vs. the Atlanta Falcons last season (Week 8), and fifth start vs. the Carolina Panthers last year (Week 12).
Offense: The Titans scored 31 points in an island spot against the Dolphins (Week 4) – that’s the only time they’ve cleared 17 points in a game this season. They spent this offseason trying to add firepower to the offense that averaged 17.9 PPG in 2023.
Defense: The Titans are allowing the fewest yards per drive this season (23.1) and forcing teams to punt on a league-high 50% of drives.
Fantasy: Tony Pollard gave managers his third game this season with 80 rushing yards and a rushing score – that’s three more than he had with the Cowboys last season.
Betting: Under tickets have cashed in nine of Tennessee’s past 12 road games.
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills have only played half of their games on Sundays up to his point (two Mondays and a Thursday) but have nothing but Sunday games for the rest of the regular season.
QB: On Monday night, Josh Allen recorded his 21st game since 2020 (playoffs included) with multiple TD passes and a rush TD — no other player during that stretch has more than Kyler Murray’s 10.
Offense: The Bills committed 11 penalties on Monday night, their most in a game this season (seven came on the offensive end).
Defense: The defense has been slow out of the gate recently. Buffalo has been outscored 31-13 in first quarters over their past three games (1-2 record).
Fantasy: Ray Davis became the first Buffalo Bill to have 20 carries and 50 receiving yards since Chris Ivory (Week 3, 2018).
Betting: The Bills are 1-7 ATS in their past eight when favored by more than six points.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: The Bengals have lost six straight games at Cleveland by an average margin of 11.0 PPG.
QB: Joe Burrow is averaging 13.5 yards per attempt targeting Ja’Marr Chase this season. That’s the second-best among 48 duos with 30+ targets (C.J. Stroud-to-Nico Collins averages 13.6 yards per attempt). But targeting anyone else, Burrow is averaging only 6.4 yards per attempt this season.
Offense: The Bengals had their worst pass protection game of the season, Week 6 vs. the New York Giants. Cincinnati allowed season-highs in sacks (four) and pressure percentage (38.2%). The Browns generate the third-highest pressure rate in the league this season (41.1%).
Defense: The Bengals played zone coverage on a season-high 71.6% of dropbacks in Week 6 vs. the New York Giants. They allowed 5.1 yards per play in zone coverage, which is their best in a game since the season-opener vs. the Patriots.
Fantasy: For the first time all season, Chase Brown out-snapped Zack Moss in Week 6 vs. the Giants (32 to 24). Brown had 10 carries to Moss’ six, the second straight week Brown has led the Bengals in rush attempts.
Betting: Joe Burrow is 10-4 as a road favorite over his career (71.4%), including six covers in his past seven instances.
Cleveland Browns
Team: The Browns have scored 95 points this season – they scored at least 120 through their first six games in the previous six seasons.
QB: Deshaun Watson posted a 0.57 dropback EPA in the Browns’ loss vs. the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s just the fourth time in 18 games with the Browns that Watson has posted a positive dropback EPA, and his first this season.
Offense: Last December, the Browns cleared 30 points three times in a four-game stretch. In the eight games since (playoff loss included), they haven’t reached 20 points once.
Defense: They are blitzing much more often this season (36% of dropbacks) than last (27.8%) despite being far less successful in generating pressure when they do so (43.7% of blitzes this season, 52.6% last).
Fantasy: Despite earning 53 targets this season, Amari Cooper has just one top-40 PPR fantasy finish this season (WR5 in Week 3).
Betting: Unders are 6-2-1 since 2021 when the Browns host a divisional game.
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans
Team: The Texans are 5-1 this season. In games 1-6 over the previous three seasons, they went a combined 5-12-1.
QB: C.J. Stroud averaged 7.8 yards per pass in Weeks 1-5, all games in which Nico Collins started. On Sunday in New England, despite scoring 41 points, he averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt.
Offense: With Joe Mixon back in the lineup in Week 6, the Texans set season-highs in rush yards (192), yards per rush (6.9) and rush touchdowns (2). Houston averaged 3.8 yards after contact per rush, their best in a game since 2022, Week 9 vs. the Philadelphia Eagles.
Joe Mixon is in again!
📺: #HOUvsNE on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/ATS2En0AkC— NFL (@NFL)
Defense: The Texans rank fourth in sack rate but just 15th in pressure rate. Jordan Love has been sacked at the lowest rate of any QB this season (2.7%).
Fantasy: A veteran coming off of missed time can be intimidating, but Joe Mixon wasted no time last week (first half: 105 total yards and a touchdown).
Betting: In his young career, Stroud is 5-2 ATS as an underdog, and under tickets have also come through in five of those seven contests.
Green Bay Packers
Team: There have been 25 turnovers by either team in Packers games this season. Over the last five seasons, the 2020 New England Patriots (26) are the only team with more combined turnovers through six games.
QB: Over his past 10 games, Jordan Love is completing 66.1% of his passes with a 7.8% TD rate and 2.4% interception rate. Those numbers aren’t too dissimilar from Patrick Mahomes first 10 games on his way to winning the 2018 MVP award (67% complete, 9% TD rate, 2% interception rate).
Offense: Despite having a backup quarterback for two games, the Packers are averaging the second most 20-plus yard plays from scrimmage per game this season (5.0, trailing only the 49ers’ 5.2).
Defense: The Packers have a league-high 17 takeaways. That’s the most by any team through six games since the 2018 Chicago Bears. It’s the most the Packers have forced through six games since 2002 (19).
Fantasy: Jayden Reed continues to produce like vintage Deebo Samuel – he has a TD reception or multiple rush attempts in every game this season.
Betting: Jordan Love has been favored eight times in his career – unders are 2-0 when that’s the case and he is facing the Rams, overs are 5-1 when that is the case and he’s facing any other team in the NFL.
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Miami Dolphins
Team: The Dolphins have been out-scored by 48 points in the first halves of games (cumulative score: 74-26) and just five points after that.
QB: Tyler Huntley has more touchdown runs than passes this season and doesn’t have a completion gaining more than 21 yards (last season, Miami had 50 completions of 22-plus yards, tying them for the fifth most).
Offense: There is no shortage of stats to highlight the offensive drop-off this season for Miami – they are reaching the red zone on just 19.3% of drives this season (2023: 31.2%).
Defense: The Dolphins have essentially the same non-blitz pressure rate this season (39.4%) as last (39.3), but their sack rate in such spots has tanked from 8.4% to 5.6%.
Fantasy: Tyreek Hill was the fourth-highest-scoring PPR fantasy receiver in Week 1 but hasn’t cracked the top 30 at the position ever since.
Betting: The Dolphins haven’t had a losing season ATS since the 2017 team went 5-9-2. This year’s Fins are 1-4 ATS coming out of their Week 6 bye.
Indianapolis Colts
Team: The Colts have won two games this season without scoring more than 21 points and have lost a pair of games in which they scored 27-plus.
QB: Joe Flacco’s team has won six of his past seven appearances – the lone loss came this season to the otherwise winless Jaguars (it was Flacco’s best Passer Rating over this seven-game sample).
Offense: With Joe Flacco on the field, the Colts are averaging 0.08 EPA per play, which would be tied with the Buccaneers and 49ers for sixth-best. Without Flacco on the field, the Colts are averaging -0.02 EPA per play, which would rank 17th.
Defense: No defense has been left on the field more often than the Colts this season (34:13 per game). If sustained, this would be the highest opponent average time of possession since the 2021 Seahawks.
Fantasy: Michael Pittman Jr. wasn’t a top 50 receiver for any of the first three weeks this season but has now put together back-to-back-to-back top 30 performances
Betting: The Colts have covered six of their past eight games when favored (1-1 this season with a cover against the Bears and an outright loss to the Malik Willis-led Packers).
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions have won at least four of their first five games three times in the 2000s: they won all five in 2011 and have gone 4-1 in the past two seasons.
QB: It’s a flawed stat, but Jared Goff’s 157.5 passer rating the last two games is the highest in a two-game span all-time (min. 40 pass attempts). His numbers over that span: 36-43, 607 yards, 5 TD, 0 Int.
Offense: The Lions have scored 40-plus points in consecutive games for the first time since 1962.
Defense: How much will Detroit miss Aidan Hutchinson? Through Week 6, Hutchinson accounted for 54.3% of the Lions’ pressures. No other player has more than half of their team’s pressures this season (the next-highest is Nick Bosa at 42.2%).
Fantasy: David Montgomery has scored in eight straight regular season games and in 16-of-19 since joining the Lions – he’s been a top-20 RB in every game this season.
Betting: The Lions have covered six of their past seven road divisional games, the lone hiccup being a 28-13 loss at Soldier Field as a three-point favorite in Week 14 of last season.
Minnesota Vikings
Team: The Vikings last opened a season with six straight wins in 2009 (their Big 3 that season were Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, and Sidney Rice).
QB: Prior to the bye, Sam Darnold had his worst game of the season, and it was due in large part to his inability to deal with the pressure of the Jets: he completed one of nine passes when under duress for five yards.
Offense: That aforementioned deficiency could be viewed as a blueprint – the Vikings have been blitzed on just 19.5% of their dropbacks this season (2023: 28.2%, and the league average typically settles in around 26%).
Defense: Minnesota is not having trouble getting off the field – they allowed a third down conversion rate of 41.4% last season but have cut that number down to 31% through five games in 2024.
Fantasy: Would you believe me if I told you that Jefferson is pacing for the highest fantasy production rate over expectation of his career this season? It’s true, and we get access to a comfort spot off of a bye, making him our favorite to lead the scoring position this week.
Jefferson’s Last Three Games vs. DET
- Week 14, 2022: 33.3 fantasy points (11-223-0 on 15 targets)
- Week 16, 2023: 26.1 fantasy points (6-141-1 on 10 targets)
- Week 18, 2023: 36 fantasy points (12-192-1 on 14 targets)
Betting: Overs are 18-8 (69.2%) in Minnesota’s past 26 divisional games.
It's Sunday so Justin Jefferson is balling out.
📺: #MINvsDET on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/X0vcyHUoyR pic.twitter.com/2vFqM2qMV7— NFL (@NFL)
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Team: The Eagles are seeking their first two-game win streak since last November.
QB: Jalen Hurts has opened this season with five straight games of 8-plus rush attempts and 25-plus pass attempts. Another such performance this week will match the longest streak of his career and tie him for the third longest in NFL history (Mike Vick had nine straight bridging 2010-11, and Lamar Jackson had seven straight in 2021).
Offense: The Eagles remain the only team yet to score in the first quarter this season. If they fail to score in the 1st quarter on Sunday, they will join the 2021 Jets as the only teams in the last 15 seasons to go scoreless in the 1st quarter of their first six games in a season.
Defense: The Eagles have posted a defensive success rate north of 66% in two of their past three games – they did it once in their previous 24.
Fantasy: DeVonta Smith has played four games this season, and he’s been a top 25 receiver in each of them (a fourth-quarter, 45-yard touchdown saved his day against the Browns in his return to action, a game in which he only earned 16.7% of the targets).
Betting: The Eagles are just 2-9-1 ATS in road divisional games since the start of 202, an 18.2% cover rate that is the lowest in the league over that stretch.
New York Giants
Team: The Giants are 0-2 in the division, having lost to the Cowboys and Commanders already. They’ve only started 0-3 in the division twice under the current division format (since 2002) – they began 0-5 in 2017 and 0-4 in 2018.
QB: All six of Daniel Jones’ passing touchdowns have come on the road this season. Jones has gone five straight home starts without a pass touchdown, tied for the longest streak for any starting quarterback since 2000 (also done by Lamar Jackson, Brett Hundley, and Colt McCoy).
Offense: The Giants are averaging 4.1 yards per play at home this season, second-worst ahead of only the Cleveland Browns (3.4). In five home games with Daniel Jones at QB since 2023, the Giants have one touchdown in 55 drives.
Defense: The Giants lead the NFL with 26 sacks and a 12.3% sack rate. That is the highest sack rate by a defense through six games since 2000 (both the Saints and Buccaneers were higher through six games in 2000).
Fantasy: Tyrone Tracy Jr. posted the first NYG RB finish inside the top 10 this season (107 total yards and a touchdown) against the Bengals and has been a top 20 producer at the position in both of his starts for the ailing Devin Singletary.
Betting: The Giants are 6-2 in Week 7’s over the past eight seasons with under tickets cashing in all eight contests.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams
Las Vegas Raiders
Team: The Raiders are 2-4 this season, and all four losses have come by at least a dozen points.
QB: Aidan O’Connell averaged 0.02 EPA per dropback Sunday vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers, the first time all season a Raiders starting QB has posted positive EPA per dropback. O’Connell took only one sack, while Gardner Minshew has the fourth-highest sack rate this year (9.7%).
Offense: The Raiders picked up just two-of-11 third downs against the Steelers on Sunday, their worst effort in a home game since Week 11, 2021.
Defense: Blitzing usually leads to more pressure, but the Raiders are the exception. Las Vegas ranks 29th in pressure rate (27.8%) despite blitzing at the fifth-highest rate (30.3%). The Raiders only pressure the quarterback 27% of the time when they blitz, the third-worst rate in the league.
Fantasy: During Davante Adams’ absence dating back to Week 4, Brock Bowers leads all tight ends with 187 receiving yards. He’s earned 25.8% of the Raiders’ targets in that span, the fourth-highest for any tight end league-wide.
Betting: Since 2015, overs are 8-0 in Raider Week 7 games, going over the total by an average of 11.0 PPG (they’ve covered five of those games).
Los Angeles Rams
Team: The Rams have had multiple wins in their first six games every season since 2012 – at 1-4. They need a win to continue that streak (they never recovered in that 2011 season and finished at 2-14).
QB: Matthew Stafford threw 41 touchdown passes in his first season with the Rams. It would take him 2,392 attempts this season to reach 41 TDs at his current pace.
Offense: Where have the injuries hurt Los Angeles the most? Their red zone touchdown rate decreased from 63.6% a season ago to 45% this year.
Defense: Even without Aaron Donald, the Rams are blitzing less and creating pressure more this season than last.
Fantasy: Kyren Williams has run into a loaded box 33.7% of the time, more than double his rate from a season ago (16.7%), and something that could change in a major way with Kupp nearing his return.
Betting: The Rams have failed to cover seven straight games when on extended rest (average cover margin: -6.7).
Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders
Carolina Panthers
Team: After a 38-20 loss to the Falcons last week, the Panthers have now gone eight games since their last contest that was decided by a single score.
QB: In his first three starts this season, Andy Dalton wasn’t afraid to challenge defenses downfield when pressured (9.3 aDOT). Last week against the Falcons, however, his average depth of throw when feeling the heat stood at just 2.2 yards.
Offense: The Panthers have only nine points off turnovers, the third-fewest this season. Carolina is one of three teams (along with the Cowboys and Cardinals) yet to score a touchdown off a turnover this season.
Defense: The Panthers have allowed at least 22 points in all six games this season. It’s tied for their second-longest streak in franchise history, behind only a 10-game streak from 2019-20.
Fantasy: Diontae Johnson has at least 10 targets and a touchdown catch in three of four Andy Dalton starts this season.
Betting: Andy Dalton has made five starts for the Panthers, and all five have gone over the total. This is coming after nine of his last 10 starts, with the Saints cashed under tickets.
Washington Commanders
Team: The Commanders have a +33 points differential through six games, their first positive mark since 2018 and their best point differential at this point in the season since the 2007 campaign (+34).
QB: Jayden Daniels leads the NFL with 0.28 EPA per dropback. In the last 15 seasons, Patrick Mahomes (0.34) is the only player to average a higher EPA per dropback in his first six career starts.
Offense: Through six games, only once has Washington been led in rushing by a running back AND led in receiving by a receiver (Week 4 at Arizona).
Defense: Washington has allowed a score on half of opponent drives this season – only the Panthers (52.9%) have been worse through six weeks.
Fantasy: Terry McLaurin has more top-16 finishes at the position this season (three) than he had all of last year (two).
Betting: After covering by half-a-point last weekend in Baltimore, the Commanders are 5-1 ATS, making them a threat to challenge the 2008 Ravens (12 ATS wins) for the most covers in a season with a rookie under center. That, of course, was Joe Flacco’s rookie season, one that saw Baltimore play in the AFC Championship game.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Despite being 5-0 for the first time since Patrick Mahomes’ first year as the regular starter, the Chiefs own their second-lowest point differential (+33) through five games during that stretch.
QB: In the first three quarters of games this season, Mahomes has an 83.6 Passer Rating and is averaging 7.2 yards per attempt. In the final 15 minutes, his numbers climb to a 122.3 Passer Rating and 10.7 yards per attempt.
Offense: The Chiefs are playing as slow as they ever have on the offensive side of the ball under Mahomes (29.9 time of possession per play, 5.3% slower than their rate during his career).
Defense: The Chiefs allowed a touchdown on 67.3% of red zone trips in 2022, improved that rate to 50% a season ago, and, through five games, sit at 46.7% this season.
Fantasy: Malik Willis, Tua Tagovailoa, and Deshaun Watson are three names on the long list of quarterbacks with a higher peak weekly finish this season than Mahomes this season
Betting: Unders are 7-2 under Mahomes when the Chiefs AND their opponent enter a game on extended rest (San Francisco was in Seattle on Thursday night). The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their past five spots under their MVP.
San Francisco 49ers
Team: San Francisco is 0-3 in one-score games this season and has seen all three of their wins come by at least 12 points. Their rest regular season win in a game decided by six or fewer points was Week 17, 2022, against Jarrett Stidham’s Raiders.
QB: Brock Purdy has sacrificed 3.9 points in completion percentage for a 26.8% spike in average depth of throw this season compared to last.
Offense: The 49ers have gone three-and-out on just 18.3% of their drives this season, their lowest rate through six games during the 2000’s.
Defense: Opponents had a 101.5 Passer Rating against the 49ers through the first three weeks of the season. In the three weeks since, that number sits at 70.6.
Fantasy: Deebo Samuel’s 76-yard catch-and-run was among the primary highlights last Thursday night, and he was handed the ball four times, his most since the season-opening win against the Jets. Theoretically, the ability to rip off big plays and gain volume on the ground should make Samuel a bonafide star – and yet, I’m worried.
Weeks 4-6, Targets per Route
- Jauan Jennings: 23.8%
- George Kittle: 22.4%
- Brandon Aiyuk: 21.9%
- Samuel: 15.1%
Betting: In a league where unders are all the rage, overs are 9-3-1 in San Francisco’s past 13 regular season games.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (SNF)
New York Jets
Team: Monday night was the first of a four-game-in-18-day stretch that concludes when they host the Texans on Halloween.
QB: Aaron Rodgers connected with Allen Lazard on a 52-yard Hail Mary to end the first half on Monday night, his fourth touchdown pass of 40-plus yards in the final 10 seconds of the half (be it the first or second half).
QBs with 40-yd TD passes at end of half/game with 10 or less seconds since Rodgers was drafted (2005) per @KyleSoppePFN
Aaron Rodgers 4
Jameis Winston 2
Andy Dalton 2 https://t.co/J2vj1y5TPf— David Bearman (@DavidBearmanPFN)
Offense: On Monday night, the Jets had a 250-yard passer, 100-yard receiver, and 100-yard rusher, their first game to check all of those boxes since Week 2, 2016 (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Forte, and Eric Decker).
Defense: The Jets have lost three straight games, allowing no more than 23 points in any of those defeats — only one team had a streak like that last season (New England – four straight).
Fantasy: Lazard scored once on 49 targets last season, his first with the Jets. After the Hail Mary, he scored five times on his first 37 targets this season.
Betting: Since 2020, the Jets are the worst ATS team in the league when playing on short rest (2-7, 22.2% cover rate).
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: The Steelers have committed just four turnovers, their second-lowest number through six games since the 2000s (three turnovers in 2015).
QB: Justin Fields has more rushing attempts than incompletions this season and as many rushing scores as passing touchdowns through six weeks.
Offense: Pittsburgh is averaging just 4.8 yards per play this season (its lowest over the past 20 years was 4.7 in 2019).
Defense: The Steelers have four red zone takeaways this season. This defense rarely bends, and when it does, it gets stronger instead of breaking. They led the league with eight such turnovers forced a season ago.
Fantasy: Justin Fields has 11 carries from the 10-yard line or closer. That ranks seventh among all players this season; no quarterback has more than seven of those carries.
Betting: Since the beginning of 2021, the Steelers are 22-12-1 ATS when a game goes under the total and 10-11 ATS when it goes over.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (MNF, 8:15)
Baltimore Ravens
Team: After an 0-2 start, the Ravens are 4-2 through six games, which is exactly where they stood last season – they have gained 687 more yards of offense this time around.
QB: Lamar Jackson is the first quarterback in NFL history to have consecutive games with 300 pass yards and 10 rush attempts.
Offense: Derrick Henry has rushed for a TD in all six games this season. That’s one shy of matching the longest streak in Ravens history (2007 Willis McGahee). In addition, Henry can join Dalvin Cook (2020) and Emmitt Smith (1994) as the only players in the last 35 seasons with a seven-game Rush TD streak to start a season.
Defense: The Ravens have allowed 10 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, tied with the Commanders for most in the league. Baker Mayfield has thrown 13 TDs to wide receivers, most of whom are in the NFL.
Fantasy: The Ravens have rattled off four straight wins, and if you extend Derrick Henry’s rushing production for those contests over an entire season, he will finish with 2,440 rushing yards (NFL record: 2,105) and 25.5 rushing touchdowns (NFL record: 28).
Betting: Overs are 5-1 in Baltimore games this season, putting them in a position to have more overs than unders for the first time since 2019, a season they started 2-2 and finished 14-2 (but lost 28-12 to the Titans in their first playoff game).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: Tampa Bay is scoring on 47.7% of their drives, putting them right there with the 2020 champions (47.8%) for the best rate by this franchise since 2000.
QB: Baker Mayfield is averaging 7.9 YPA with a 7.9% touchdown rate and a 109.4 Passer Rating through six weeks, numbers that all trump where Tom Brady was at this point during that Super Bowl season (6.9 YPA, 6.3% TD, 97.8 Passer Rating).
Offense: The Bucs have converted 47.1% of their third downs, their second-best rate through six games this millennium (2021 with Tom Brady: 49.4%).
Defense: Against a fifth-round rookie QB in Spencer Rattler making his first start, the Bucs allowed 27 first-half points (51 total points in the first half, a game that closed with a projected total of 42.5 points)
Fantasy: Might Bucky Irving be a league winner? Against the Saints, he recorded a season-high 16 touches (105 yards and a touchdown) and now has a 15-plus yard touch in five of six games – the role is only going to increase, and he’s finished three of the past four weeks as a top 24 RB as it is.
Betting: Baker Mayfield has covered each of his past three games as a home underdog, a nice run after a 3-6 ATS stretch in such pots.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals (MNF, 8:45)
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: No Charger game has seen 40 total points scored thus far.
QB: Justin Herbert has been blitzed at the highest rate of any quarterback this season (38.1%). However, he’s averaging a career-high 0.18 EPA per dropback against the blitz this year.
Offense: The Chargers turned the ball over on just 3.6% of their drives, the best in the NFL. In the last five seasons, the 2022 Dallas Cowboys are the only team to average fewer turnovers per drive through five games.
Defense: The Chargers are allowing the fewest points per drive this season (1.20). Over Justin Herbert’s first four seasons (2020-23), they ranked 28th (2.20) and never higher than 19th in a single season.
Fantasy: J.K. Dobbins set a career-high in carries last week with 25 (his first game with more than 17) and has seen three of his seven highest carry counts come this season.
Betting: Either the Chargers or Broncos were held scoreless in every quarter of Sunday’s game, and yet, for the first time this season, over tickets were cashed in a Los Angeles game. Only three times over the past 20 years has a Charger team failed to produce at least six overs in a season (2005, 2017, and 2023) – this team remains positioned to join that list.
Arizona Cardinals
Team: The Cardinals have lost three of their past four games, all coming against strong offenses (Lions, Commanders, 49ers, and Packers). Their four opponents before the Week 11 bye are not near that range (Chargers, Dolphins, Bears, and Jets).
QB: Kyler Murray uses play action at the third-highest rate (28.4%). The Chargers have been the third-best defense against play action based on yards per attempt (6.0).
Offense: The Cardinals are the only team in the NFL that remains perfect in goal-to-go situations, having scored a touchdown on all eight of their opportunities.
Defense: The Cardinals have ramped up their blitz rate from 16.2% last season to 26% this season, and yet, they are creating pressure less often (32.6% of the time last season, 28.4% through six weeks this season)
Fantasy: That’s 13 straight games in which Trey McBride has seen at least six targets.
Betting: The Cardinals are just 1-4 ATS in Kyler Murray’s last five home starts in primetime.
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