As the NFL season approaches, fantasy football is upon us. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Chicago Bears RB Roschon Johnson’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Roschon Johnson’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
In eight of the last 10 drafts, Chicago has looked to Rounds 3-6 for an instant-impact RB — whether to start or to serve as a valued handcuff to an entrenched bell cow. So it was not completely surprising to see them snag Johnson in the fourth round this year.
That said, it was an intriguing pick. In a somewhat new-look backfield that still has Khalil Herbert and added the consummately underrated D’Onta Foreman, Johnson might not rise above No. 3 on the depth chart this year and even next year.
On the plus side, he has size and reliable hands — both on the ground and through the air. 12 of his 23 collegiate rushing scores were from the 4-yard line or closer — and nearly all of those were one- or two-yard runs. As a result, he could be a bruiser near the goal line.
Yet on the downside, Johnson wasn’t a high-volume RB in college. He topped out at 9.5 carries per game as a freshman, and his lowest usage was as a senior (7.2 per game). Of course, he ran behind Bijan Robinson for much of that stretch, so his limited role is understandable. However, it’s notable that he doesn’t have bell-cow experience.
In essence, he was a solid get for a franchise that’s been burned repeatedly in recent years by RB injuries. Still, one might wonder if Johnson was their top target after selecting DL Zacch Pickens at the top of the third round, knowing that they either needed to trade up or wait 38 picks for their next selection in the fourth.
Then, after four running backs came off the board, they traded that fourth-rounder and moved back 12 more spots to No. 115 overall. And that was the pick they used to get Johnson, who appears to be more of a long-term, low-ceiling complementary piece than another in a long line of instant-impact rookie RBs.
We also shouldn’t forget about the recently acquired Travis Homer, who boasts a career 5.5 yards per carry, has great hands in the receiving game, and only just turned 25 years old.
In a realistic best-case scenario, Johnson would get a couple of touches a game — including some near the goal line — as he acclimates to the NFL. In a realistic worst-case scenario, he’d ride the pine throughout the season, running behind Homer as the No. 4 back.
There are probably a dozen or more rookie RBs with higher Year 1 fantasy value, including nearly everyone else taken in the first five rounds. Johnson has the misfortune of joining a run-friendly offense that already has three of four “better” rushers (including QB Justin Fields). He’ll need a lot of things to break right to net more than 225 total yards.
Should You Draft Roschon Johnson This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Johnson with an ADP of RB48, which defies logic from where I’m sitting. Of course, maybe Johnson will pull a rookie-year Jordan Howard — a 2016 fifth-rounder — and need only two or three games to jump to the top of the depth chart.
Of course, the incumbent that year was the underwhelming Jeremy Langford. Howard peaked as a rookie placed in a near-perfect situation in which to thrive.
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Johnson’s in a different situation. His chances of overtaking both Herbert and Foreman are incredibly slim, and the Bears should be competitive enough to stick with their starters down the stretch rather than throwing in the towel and giving Johnson more reps to see what they have in him.
As a fourth-round selection, Johnson has earned some fantasy draft capital, which has driven up his value beyond my comfort level. I’d advise fading him at least a couple of rounds and perhaps more. In other words, one of your opponents surely will get him before he falls to you near the end of the draft.
