As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Houston Texans WR Robert Woods’ fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Robert Woods’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
From 2018 through 2021, only five wideouts averaged 15+ PPR fantasy points per game in each of those four seasons. Four were perennial elite or near-elite producers: Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, and Keenan Allen.
The fifth was Robert Woods.
A combination of significant targets, a terrific catch rate (and great overall hands), and strong after-the-catch abilities made Woods an unlikely weekly fantasy starter.
But little in his first five seasons (2013 to 2017) suggested he could become “great,” at least in fantasy circles. But he rose to become the overall WR11 in 2018, WR14 in 2019, and WR12 in 2020.
He was on pace to crack the top 12 in 2021 before going down with a season-ending torn ACL. At age 29, it seemed clear that his time near the top was over.
Whether because of the aftermath of the injury, his advancing age, or his quarterbacks — or all three — Woods struggled in Tennessee last season. He averaged only 2.9 yards after the catch, which was by far his lowest on record. His drop rate was his highest on record. His catch rate was his lowest since his 2013 rookie campaign.
Woods is now 31 years old and playing for his third team in the last three seasons. The Texans are a team desperate for receivers, and the veteran fits the bill. Houston handed him $10 million guaranteed on a two-year deal. Clearly, they plan to utilize him. The biggest question is, “how much?”
John Metchie III’s return from injury and leukemia could have a dramatic impact on Woods’ production. Nico Collins looms. Third-round rookie Tank Dell could step up as soon as Week 1.
And through it all, there’s rookie QB C.J.A Stroud. First-year quarterbacks often struggle. Not always, But we should expect some growing pains, even for a guy as highly touted as Stroud. If he’s throwing to Metchie, Collins, Dell, and even the capable Noah Brown, where does that leave Woods?
And with a sturdy backfield comprised of Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary, as well as an improving defense, we might envision Houston operating relatively conservatively in the passing game to help Stroud acclimate ahead of 2024 when the team hopes they are ready to compete in the AFC South.
Two years ago, Woods might have been the preseason No. 1 WR in this offense. But now, he’s a rapidly declining talent mixing in with a bunch of youngsters — the future of the Texans’ impending resurgence. He’s simultaneously useful and expendable.
This makes him a risky receiver to bet on in fantasy. The team owes him money, but not targets. Houston isn’t playing for wins (although, of course, they want to win). They’re trying to develop their guys.
By December, we’re more likely to see heavy targets for Metchie, Collins, and Dell than for Woods.
As a result, Woods might not even hit last year’s totals, which came on a healthy 91 targets. Sixty-five targets seem like a more reasonable expectation in Houston — or roughly four per game. Barring a rash of injuries to the young receivers, Woods should top out at around a 40-420-3 receiving line.
Should You Draft Robert Woods This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Woods with an ADP of WR89. Our PFN Consensus Rankings list him at WR80. The expert opinion makes more sense at this time, with Woods serving largely as the No. 3 or No. 4 WR in a relatively weak passing attack.
The aged receiver has almost no top-60 upside, making him undraftable even in many Best Ball leagues.
Only two years ago, Woods was one of fantasy’s most consistent “great” receivers. Now, he appears to be wrapping up his career on a team that needs his veteran leadership more than his playmaking. It’s a recipe for muted fantasy production.
