The NFL season will be here soon enough, and millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. At PFN, we’ve been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Kansas City Chiefs WR Rashee Rice’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Rashee Rice’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
When a team trades up to land a skill player in the first couple of rounds, fantasy managers need to take notice. When that team is the defending Super Bowl champs, managers really need to take notice.
To land Rashee Rice, Kansas City traded up with the Lions. Rice toiled away for four years in the American Athletic Conference, taking on an increasing responsibility each season at LSU, which culminated in a 29% target share as a senior. He has the size and speed to contribute right away in a Chiefs receiving corps that lost JuJu Smith-Schuster this offseason.
That’s the good news.
On the flip side, there are plenty of yellow flags capping Rice’s likely Year 1 ceiling. First, even with Smith-Schuster gone, there are plenty of mouths to feed. In addition to a potentially three-man backfield led by 2022 breakout RB Isiah Pacheco, this franchise remains fairly packed in the passing game.
Beyond target monster Travis Kelce, we should anticipate a sizeable leap for 2021 first-rounder Kadarius Toney, whom K.C. plucked from the Giants last season for a mere third- and sixth-rounder. Toney has the juice to become the 1A wideout in this offense when he’s on the field.
Meanwhile, Marquez Valdes-Scantling should continue to earn regular looks as a big-play receiver, while 2022 second-rounder Skyy Moore — despite a muted rookie campaign — has an opening to make good on his potential.
And while Justin Watson and Justyn Ross loom, we cannot ignore Toney’s former teammate, Richie James, who had one of the highest WR catch rates in history last year.
Many managers might dismiss most of those guys. After all, Rice is the new shiny toy and has a great shot at jumping into the fray. The Chiefs clearly wanted him enough to trade up. Most savvy bettors would take that to mean he’ll be utilized early and (somewhat) often.
But Rice might also be a bit of a development project for a team that proved last year they didn’t need all-world WR Tyreek Hill to win the title. Patrick Mahomes, Kelce, a versatile backfield, and an array of talented wideouts were enough to make them an offensive juggernaut.
While the loss of Smith-Schuster hurts, even without Rice, this team would have had enough aerial firepower to be frontrunners for back-to-back Super Bowls.
For Rice’s part, he was a shark among eels as a college senior. He played well against objectively “great” TCU early in the year, but it should be noted that the Horned Frogs gave up 30 points per game last season. Defense was not their strong suit. Versus the other two top-25 teams he faced, Rice issued meek receiving lines of 6-41-0 and 4-41-0.
As a force-fed alpha receiver on a team that desperately needed him to step up week after week, Rice often came through, particularly against non-top-50 opponents. But realistically, it could take him weeks or even months (or even a couple years) to find his footing in the NFL on the talent-laden Chiefs.
Should You Draft Rashee Rice This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Rice with an ADP of WR61. Our PFN Consensus Rankings have Rice all the way down at WR92. For context, last year’s overall WR50 was none other than Richie James, who finished with a 57-569-4 receiving line.
Last season, only two Kansas City wideouts had more than 34 receptions or more than 315 receiving yards. The year before, Byron Pringle statistically was the Chiefs’ No. 3 WR with a 42-568-5 receiving line.
Rashee Rice catch in traffic over the middle pic.twitter.com/zZTKT58qJX
— EDDIE HIGH (@EddieHigh)
For Rice to crack the top 50, he’ll likely need to be one of the two best wide receivers, overtaking Moore and Valdes-Scantling while operating alongside Toney. Or, if Toney’s health woes continue, perhaps Rice can push past Moore or MVS to operate as a frequent No. 2 with Toney sidelined.
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But you get the idea. While there are plenty of what-if scenarios pushing Rice into the top 50, most require a leap of faith. Essentially, several things have to break right for the rookie.
The most likely scenario keeps Rice out of the top 50, making him a modest-floor (perhaps top 75-80) and low-ceiling (top 52-56) wideout. As a result, he’s a sharp fade at his current ADP.
