The Los Angeles Rams were left for dead after a 1-4 start that saw an injury-riddled offense and inexperienced defense struggle. But since October, the Rams have quietly been one of the best teams, notching impressive wins over Super Bowl contenders like the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings.
All of that left the Rams atop the NFC West standings with a chance to clinch the division in Week 17. And because they defeated the Arizona Cardinals, and because they got some help from at least four other teams, they are the NFC West Champions and have eliminated the Seattle Seahawks from playoff contention.
What Was the Los Angeles Rams’ Playoff Picture Entering Week 17?
The 10-6 Rams lead the NFC West over the 9-7 Seattle Seahawks. Entering Week 17, those were the only two teams that could win the division, as the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 16.
The Rams won the first matchup between the teams in Seattle in Week 9. The rematch is in Los Angeles in Week 18, so the Rams could sweep the season series. If they hadn’t clinched the division in Week 17, they would have had the opportunity to clinch in Week 18.
However, Los Angeles had many other paths to winning the division. As a result, PFN projected the Rams with a 65% chance to win the NFC West, compared to 35% for the Seahawks.
Did the Rams Have Any Clinching Scenarios in Week 17?
Yes, the Rams were able to clinch the NFC West in Week 17, even after the Seahawks’ win on Thursday night vs. the Chicago Bears. Since the Rams won, and since a combination of four of either Washington, Minnesota, San Francisco, Buffalo, Cincinnati, or Cleveland won, they clinched a playoff spot.
- LAR win + at least 3.5 wins among WAS, MIN, SF, BUF, CIN, and CLE
Here are the results of these games:
- Buffalo defeated the New York Jets, 40-14
- Cincinnati defeated Denver, 30-24
Miami defeated Cleveland, 20-3.- Minnesota defeated Green Bay, 27-25
- Washington defeated Atlanta, 30-24
Detroit defeated San Francisco, 40-34
Yes, it’s complicated but relates to the strength of victory tiebreaker. In the event that the Seahawks and Rams both finish 10-7 (with Seattle beating Los Angeles in Week 18), they’ll be tied on each of the first four tiebreakers:
- Head-to-head: split 1-1
- Division record: 4-2 each
- Common games: 8-6 each
- Conference record: 6-6 each
If that occurs, the next tiebreaker is strength of victory, in which the Rams had a significant edge in that category entering Week 17. Entering this week’s slate of games, the teams that Los Angeles had defeated combined for 60 wins, compared to 51 combined wins for Seattle’s defeated opponents.
Thus, since that group of six teams combined for at least 3.5 wins in Week 17, the Rams are guaranteed to finish with a higher strength of victory regardless of what happens in Week 18.
The Rams beat the Vikings and Bills and swept the 49ers (the Seahawks lost to both Minnesota and Buffalo and went 1-1 vs. San Francisco). Therefore, those three teams winning helps the Rams’ strength of victory.
The Washington Commanders (vs. Atlanta Falcons), Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Denver Broncos), and Cleveland Browns (vs. Miami Dolphins) all faced teams that the Seahawks beat, but the Rams either lost to or didn’t face. So, those three teams winning hurts the Seahawks’ strength of victory.
Since at least four of those six teams won, the Rams clinched strength of victory.
Even if Los Angeles didn’t clinch strength of victory this week, they would have had another week to gain those 3.5 wins. So the Rams would have almost certainly clinched the tiebreaker in Week 18 if it didn’t this week.
How Did the Rams’ Week 17 Win Impact Their Playoff Scenarios?
The Rams would have been in control of their own destiny in Week 18, no matter what happened in Week 17. However, that doesn’t mean their Saturday night win over the Cardinals wasn’t critical.
Had L.A. lost to Arizona, the Week 18 matchup against Seattle would have become a true winner-take-all game because one of the scenarios would occur:
- The winner has the outright better record
- SEA wins and wins the division-record tiebreaker (4-2 vs. 3-3)
Since the Rams won on Saturday, and since they won the strength of victory tiebreaker outlined above, they are the NFC West Champions.
To simulate all the different scenarios, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to see how they change the playoff picture and the NFL postseason bracket.
