Predicting the 2025 NFL Playoffs: Following the Draft, Which Teams Will Surpass Expectations?

With the draft in the books, we’ve taken one small step for franchise development and one large step in the direction of the regular season. There are plenty of roster gymnastics to go through between now and September, but we are here to take a look at what 14 teams are most likely to qualify for the 2025 NFL playoffs.

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2025 NFL Playoffs, Division Winners

AFC East: Buffalo Bills

• 2024 Record: 13-4 (AFC East champion)
• PFSN Playoff Probability: 97.7%

Behind the superpowers of Josh Allen, the Bills have been (and remain) in position to win the first championship in franchise history.

Will they get there this season? Hard to say, but I see no reason to think they won’t again be in the mix. They are 35-7 at home over the past five seasons (two games better than any other team over that stretch) and benefit from an extra home contest this year.

The division is getting better, and that’s real, though I don’t expect a change at the top – the Bills were our 18th graded defense a season ago after three straight top-7 finishes, any rebound there and they shouldn’t be playing stressful games down the stretch of the regular season.

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens

• 2024 Record: 12-5 (AFC North champion)
• PFSN Playoff Probability: 93.3%

The Steelers are always looming and we know the Bengals have plenty of potential, but the Ravens are simply too complete a team to bet against until we see something change.

The offense has been phenomenal under Todd Monken (Lamar Jackson won the MVP in 2023, was better in 2024, and has two of the 12 best seasons in our QB+ database that dates back to 2000), but how about Baltimore owning our eighth-best defense from last season?

The postseason demons loom, that much we know, but in terms of getting an invite to the dance, there should be no concerns. This division will beat most teams up, and that could happen to the defending AFC North champs, but they are a league-best 18-4 in non-divisional games over the past two seasons and should continue to impress on a regular basis.

AFC South: Houston Texans

• 2024 Record: 10-7, AFC South champion)
• PFSN Playoff Probability: 59.5%

This feels like a division that no one ever wants to win, and that makes me uneasy about picking a repeat champion. That said, this is a quarterback-driven league, and even in a down season from C.J. Stroud (QB5 among qualifiers as a rookie in QB+, QB33 in his second year), he’s still the signal caller in this division that inspires the most confidence.

DeMeco Ryans helped this defense rank eighth last season in our Defense+ metric (12th last season and 23rd in 2022, before he came to town) and that helped add stability to this franchise. They are 14-8 in one-score games during the Stroud era (sixth best), a trend I like to continue as long as the defensive growth sticks and our 32nd-ranked offensive line takes some sort of step in the right direction.

AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers

• 2024 Record: 11-6 (wild card)
• PFSN Playoff Probability: 63.4%

Finally, a new winner!

The Bolts boasted the fourth-best defense in Year 1 under Jim Harbaugh after ranking 24th in 2023, and it’s clear that there has been a culture change in Los Angeles.

Roster talent hasn’t been a question for quite some time, but the results have been spotty. Justin Herbert saw his yards per attempt spike by 11.6% from 2023 and clearly knew the assignment – he threw three interceptions on 504 attempts. As a reward for his execution, Harbaugh brought in Najee Harris, a pounding running back who should allow one of the game’s best play-action passers to level up even further.

Are they better than the Chiefs?

That’s not the question that matters most for this exercise. As a team that has yet to do much of anything in the postseason, this franchise is likely to place more importance on the regular season, whereas Kansas City has proven plenty capable of winning anytime, anywhere as long as they have their nucleus intact.

Their last three games against the Chiefs have all been losses, but by a total of just 10 points. Stealing one (or both) of those games this season isn’t out of the question, and the top-heavy nature of this league leaves the reigning AFC champions with a brutal schedule to navigate

The last time the Chargers wore the AFC West crown was in Barack Obama’s first year as president, with the Black Eyed Peas atop the music charts and “The Blind Side” leading the way in terms of movies.

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NFC East: Washington Commanders

• 2024 Record: 12-5 (wild card)
• PFSN Playoff Probability: 70.5%

The NFC East hasn’t had a repeat champion since the Eagles rattled off four straight (2001-04), and I think that trend continues despite housing the Super Bowl winners.
Think about this. The Commanders started last season with a 17-point loss and a rookie under center who would get banged up in the first half of the season. They finished with a below-average defense, had one player under the age of 34 rack up even 510 receiving yards, and ranked 24th in FG%.

All of those things happened – they won 12 games and beat a Detroit team in the playoffs that was our top-ranked NFC squad for essentially the entirety of the regular season.

Now you’re telling me that they’ve had an entire offseason to build around what Jayden Daniels brings to the table (see Deebo Samuel trade)? They’ve had the ability to address some of their defensive shortcomings in an urgent way, understanding that their rebuilding process has been accelerated in a major way?

I’m in.

Sure, their season ended in ugly fashion. The Eagles beat the brakes off of them in a playoff game that was close until it wasn’t (it’s easy to forget that, in the 32-point loss, Washington was actually responsible for three of the first five scoring possessions).

I don’t think there’s a hangover to fear. This success-starved organization is well aware of the position they are in, and with them seemingly holding the QB advantage in at least 11 games entering this season, I expect them to have their foot on the gas from the get-go.

Outside of a midseason swoon where Daniels was clearly battling a ribs injury, Washington was 12-2 during the regular season with both losses coming on the road against playoff teams – what we saw last season from this team looks far more likely to be built upon than it does to regress in any sort of way to me.

NFC North: Detroit Lions

• 2024 Record: 15-2 (NFC North champion)
• PFSN Playoff Probability: 83.3%

The best division in football was won by maybe the best team in football last season, and I don’t think that changes in 2025. Yes, the loss of both coordinators will hurt, but the floor on both sides of the ball is simply too high for me to bet against them in favor of teams with more question marks.

Detroit has won 10 of 12 divisional games over the past two seasons, and they were an elite team on both sides of the ball prior to Aidan Hutchinson breaking his tibia and fibula in Week 6. I’m operating under the assumption that he is at full strength to open this season and that the indoor/outdoor splits motivate this team to again chase not only the North title, but the top seed in the conference.

NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• 2024 Record: 10-7 (NFC South champion)
• PFSN Playoff Probability: 84.6%

You mean a team with a four-game midseason losing streak and a QB who has played for four teams in four seasons can have success in this league?

And can it carry over for another year?

I think so.

Baker Mayfield was our seventh-rated quarterback in 2024 (his first finish better than QB12 in his career) and should have plenty of firepower at his disposal with Bucky Irving and Jalen McMillan set to build on immensely impressive rookie campaigns.

The 16th-ranked defense will need to find consistency if this team wants to have success in the postseason, and they’ll be tested during the regular season with games against the Eagles, Bills, and Lions highlighting their non-divisional schedule. They, however, have some room for error, as they were the only team in the NFC South to post a winning record in 2024.

The “clutch” gene isn’t something that I generally believe in, but it should be noted that Tampa Bay outscored their opponents by 82 points in fourth quarters a season ago, the best mark since the 2021 Patriots.

NFC West: Arizona Cardinals

• 2024 Record: 8-9 (missed playoffs)
• PFSN Playoff Probability: 43.3%

This is the one division in the NFL that has, in my eyes, four legitimate threats to finish at the top. The Cardinals benefit from a third-place schedule, and that should allow them to avoid the murderers’ row that they opened 2024 with (their September opponents last season: Bills, Rams, Lions, and Commanders).

HIGHLIGHTED IN: 2025 NFL Draft Winners and Losers

This franchise hasn’t won a playoff game since Larry Fitzgerald hauled in a pass from Carson Palmer to beat the Packers in overtime (2015). Yes, it’s been a minute, but this was our fifth-ranked offense a season ago, and I thought they left plenty of meat on that bone.

Their attention to detail on the defensive end will need to improve, but adding Josh Sweat could cover a lot of their flaws. Arizona ranked 25th in pressure rate last season and sits at 27th over the past four years – if they can heat up their opponents at anything close to a league average rate, double-digit wins are very much a possibility.

2025 NFL Playoffs, Wild Card Winners

AFC Wild Card: Kansas City Chiefs

• 2024 Record: 15-2 (AFC West champions)
• PFSN Playoff Probability: 88.2%

You may not have thought it would take this long to get to a team in the midst of a dynastic run, but this is more about the management of resources than anything. LeBron James takes games off during the regular season, and Rory McIlroy doesn’t play in every event – those who are most comfortable with their skills are aware that they need to be at the peak of their powers when it matters most, and the Chiefs certainly fit that mold.

Kansas City won four games by 1-2 points last regular season, the first team to do that since the 2012 Eagles. With a difficult schedule upcoming and variance potentially swinging out of their favor, I don’t think it’s crazy to think that this team fails to win the division for the first time in a decade.

But let’s not get out of control. Penciling in regular season regression is one thing, but you’re still looking at a team that has 12 more regular season wins during the Patrick Mahomes than any other team (for the record, they have more wins over that stretch than the Texans and Jaguars, two teams who believe they have a franchise QB, have combined).

AFC Wild Card: Cincinnati Bengals

• 2024 Record: 9-8 (missed playoffs)
• PFSN Playoff Probability: 70.4%

Who Dey nation wasted a tremendous Joe Burrow year in 2024, an outcome I’d like them to rectify this season. They return our 28th-ranked defense, but they’ve built upon it, and even marginal growth would go a long way (they became the first team since the 2002 Chiefs to lose four games in which they scored 30 points).

Cincinnati is 14-3 from December 1 onward over the past three seasons (only the Bills at 14-2 have a better win rate in such games), giving them confidence in their ability to peak late. A quick start would be huge for this franchise, and with a favorable schedule on tap, I’m comfortable in reserving a playoff spot for the Bengals.

AFC Wild Card: Denver Broncos

• 2024 Record: 10-7 (wild card)
• PFSN Playoff Probability: 62.9%

Year 1 of the Bo Nix experience checked every box and then some. Sean Payton spun up a master plan for his handpicked franchise leader, and I’m optimistic that this team’s ascent was not a flash in the pan.

Last season, they outscored their opponents by 114 points, the fifth-best mark by a rookie-led team over the past 20 years. Much like the Commanders, the early excellence of their rookie signal caller allows them the freedom to get creative in terms of roster building, something we saw with the bringing in of Evan Engram this offseason and throughout the draft.

Some rookie QBs experience success as the NFL looks to grasp what it is that they do well, and then regress.

Others don’t follow that backward trajectory – I think both Denver and Washington fall into that rare bucket where their franchise QB is a true difference maker.

NFC Wild Card: Philadelphia Eagles

• 2024 Record: 14-3 (Super Bowl champions)
• PFSN Playoff Probability: 79.3%

I picked a new NFC East champion, but worry not, Eagles fans, your team should get the opportunity to repeat, even if it comes from a less advantageous path.

Under Jalen Hurts, the floor for this franchise is as solid as any in the conference. Don’t take my word for it – they are the only NFC team to post a winning record (over .500) in each of the past four seasons. If we are considering nine wins as the worst-case scenario, I have a hard time seeing this experienced bunch miss out on the NFL’s second season.

NFC Wild Card: Green Bay Packers

• 2024 Record: 11-6 (wild card)
• PFSN Playoff Probability: 60.9%

We all think that Jordan Love is a long-term answer, and given the maturity he showed down the stretch of last season, a playoff berth in 2025 is a bet I’m willing to make.

Green Bay was the NFL’s best first-quarter team a season ago (+67 points, +55 over the next three quarters) and given the talent of this roster, I expect them to be able to sustain that early success at a higher rate than they did in 2024.

The NFC North is loaded, but their third-place finish last season earned them a home date with the Panthers this season, a favorable matchup that could give them the edge they need in what I expect to be a tightly packed Wild Card race.

NFC Wild Card: Seattle Seahawks

• 2024 Record: 10-7 (missed playoffs)
• PFSN Playoff Probability: 12.7%

The Sam Darnold finishing kick last season gets a lot of attention, but it shouldn’t overshadow all of the good he did and thus the potential he brings to Seattle.

Only the Chiefs have more regular-season wins than the Seahawks since 2012, and this team appears aware that their time to win is now (hence the addition of Cooper Kupp). Nine road games isn’t ideal, but of the six that come away from the division, there’s very little in terms of proven QB excellence, thus opening the door for them to knock on the door of 10 wins.

Which Teams Just Miss the NFL Playoffs

The Miami Dolphins (PFSN playoff probability: 39%) have enough raw talent to challenge for a wild card spot, but getting there requires a few things, too many things to go right. Their divisional win upside is limited, and that’s a tough pill to swallow with a second-place schedule awaiting them otherwise.

• Bills: One victory against them since Christmas of 2018
• Jets: Have split last 10 games in New York (216-210 cumulative score)
• Patriots: 8-2 since Tom Brady left, but an upward-trending team

They did win eight games a season ago, hanging around the playoff picture until the very end in a season in which they had the fifth-worst special-teams unit (per EPA) and saw Tua Tagovailoa miss more than a third of the season. Hope springs eternal, but drawing the AFC North offsets the benefits from having a ninth home game and leaves them on the outside looking in for me.

The bottom rung of contenders is deeper in the NFC than the AFC, in my opinion, and that leaves us with three teams who just missed the cut. The Los Angeles Rams (PFSN playoff probability: 82.4%) have Matthew Stafford back, brought in Davante Adams, and have been the best team in the NFL over the past two seasons when facing expectations (14 wins in 16 games when favored).

A ninth road game in addition to the risk of the age of their offensive weapons, introduces a level of risk that other teams don’t have, but there is a path to a ceiling that is very obtainable that our numbers clearly have more faith in than I do!

The Minnesota Vikings (PFSN playoff probability: 33.2%) went 14-3 last season, losing to only teams that the aforementioned Stafford has been a part of. Do they get a repeat of above-average quarterback play with J.J. McCarthy set to make his debut? Do they come anywhere close to repeating a defensive effort that saw them rank as the third-best defense in the NFL (per our Defense+ grading scale)?

They won eight games last regular season by less than seven points, the most such victories in a single season since the 2003 Carolina Panthers.

The Atlanta Falcons (PFSN playoff probability: 31.2%) had some ugly losses last season, but at the end of the day, they were an eight-win team that finished the season with a pair of overtime losses. Kirk Cousins completed over two-thirds of his passes, and that helped elevate him to QB20 in our QB+ metric – he was terrible for the second half of his season, and it stands to reason that expectations are higher for this offense with a full season of Michael Penix Jr. leading this offense.

Like the Dolphins, they fell into a second-place schedule. That’s not ideal, and an extra road game doesn’t generally help my outlook for a dome team (though it should be noted that they have three indoor opponents on the road this season).