Which Team Will Land No. 1 Pick in 2025 NFL Draft? PFN Simulations Give Patriots Best Odds

Who could end up with the No. 1 NFL Draft pick in 2025? PFN's simulations give the Patriots the best odds of finishing worst in the league.

Many teams will enter the 2024 NFL season with high hopes of making the playoffs, winning playoff games, or even hoisting the Lombardi Trophy after Super Bowl 59.

Others, however, do not have quite as strong a prognosis and appear more likely to gun for the No. 1 NFL Draft pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Carolina Panthers finished as the worst team in the league last year and were thus in line for the No. 1 pick but had previously dealt the selection to the Chicago Bears, who took Caleb Williams first overall.

As OTAs get rolling, we put Pro Football Network’s NFL Playoff Predictor tool to work in attempting to predict which team will ultimately end up with the top pick.

Which Team Will Get the No. 1 NFL Draft Pick in 2025?

PFN ran 17 simulations of the 2024 season to see where teams ended up most often and begin to get an idea of where squads can generally expect to end up.

The New England Patriots came out with the best (or worst, depending on your perspective) odds of coming away with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. PFN’s simulations tabbed New England at roughly a 24% chance of picking first overall and a 41% chance of finishing last in the AFC.

The Patriots also came in at roughly a 60% chance of picking anywhere in the top five, with 12% odds of picking third, 6% odds of picking fourth, and 18% odds of picking fifth. They did not end up with the second pick in any of the simulations.

Two of New England’s potential main rivals for the top pick look to be the Panthers and Denver Broncos, both of whom also own their first-round picks in the draft. Both Carolina and Denver come in at 18% odds of landing the No. 1 pick, tied for second behind the Patriots.

The Tennessee Titans and New York Giants also come in at 12% odds of taking the top selection.

The New England Patriots’ Schedule Is a Gauntlet in 2024

New England’s best odds at the No. 1 pick stem in large part from its gauntlet of a schedule.

The Patriots face the NFL’s toughest schedule in 2024, according to PFN’s in-house metric. The slate gets out to a challenging start with a road game against the Cincinnati Bengals and a home opener against the Seattle Seahawks before a daunting six-game stretch against the New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Jets again that could quickly put New England in an early hole.

The Patriots are pretty clearly the worst team in the AFC East on paper behind the Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and even the Jets, assuming they can get a healthier season out of Aaron Rodgers. That makes for six games that could very easily all end up losses.

Facing four other games against the AFC South could also be a challenge with only the Titans expected to be among the league’s worst squads.

All in all, it could be a decidedly long season in New England.

Who Will Go No. 1 Overall in the 2025 NFL Draft?

Despite what looks like a weak quarterback class, the 2025 NFL Draft could be ideal for the Patriots to pick first overall, as the franchise selected QB Drake Maye third overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.

That could free New England up to look at other positions with the first overall pick, and there are certainly some tantalizing prospects who could fit the bill.

Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden III is one player who could make sense at the slot. The standout prospect is currently rated No. 1 on PFN analyst Ian Cummings’ current 2025 Big Board after racking up 86 catches for 1,212 yards and nine touchdowns in 2023. He has long been heralded as a potential early first-round pick and could solidify that status with another strong season in 2024.

Michigan cornerback Will Johnson, Kentucky defensive tackle Deone Walker, Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, and Notre Dame cornerback Benjamin Morrison round out the top five of Cummings’ Big Board.

Those are just a few of the prospects who could make sense to be taken highly once the 2025 NFL Draft rolls around, depending on which team is ultimately making the top pick.

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