The Denver Broncos’ path to Super Bowl LX runs through a rookie receiver who played three snaps against the Bills before suffering a concussion. Pat Bryant is cleared to play Sunday, and he might be the most important offensive player on the field at Empower Field at Mile High.
Jarrett Stidham hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass since 2023. He’ll make his first start in over two years with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. But Sean Payton isn’t worried about his quarterback. He’s worried about everyone else.
How Bryant Becomes Stidham’s Release Valve
Christian Gonzalez, the Patriots’ All-Pro cornerback who shadows opposing No. 1 receivers at one of the highest rates in the league, will follow Courtland Sutton across the formation. That’s standard operating procedure for New England’s defense. Gonzalez held Cardinals rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. to one catch for 23 yards on five targets when shadowing him earlier this season.
With Sutton effectively removed, Stidham needs a target he trusts. Bryant was targeted on Denver’s first three passes of last week’s divisional win over Buffalo before the concussion ended his day. Those opening-drive looks weren’t coincidental. Payton was telegraphing his plan: attack before the Patriots’ front seven can pin their ears back.
“He’s gonna rip it,” Payton told reporters of Stidham’s approach. “He’s got this calm demeanor that I think suits him well.”
The problem? Stidham’s career says otherwise when it comes to pressure. He’s thrown at least one interception in every game he’s attempted a pass, compiling eight picks across just 16 career appearances. The Patriots defense intercepted C.J. Stroud four times in the divisional round and sacked Justin Herbert six times in the wild card. Mike Vrabel’s scheme is built to generate chaos.
Per PFSN’s Offense Impact metric, Denver’s offense grades at just 75.9 (C) with Bo Nix. The Patriots’ offense, by contrast, sits at 86.6 (B) with Drake Maye grading at 91.1 (A-) in QB Impact Metric. That gap is significant. But Denver’s defense, the league’s best at 90.1 (A-), can keep this game tight if Stidham avoids catastrophe.
Championship Sunday is here 🔥 pic.twitter.com/45NxHylt2c
— NFL (@NFL) January 25, 2026
Turnover differential tells the story of this matchup. Denver finished -3 in the regular season with 17 giveaways against just 14 takeaways. New England was +3, creating 19 turnovers while coughing it up 16 times. In a game where both defenses are elite, the margin for error disappears.
Troy Franklin (hamstring) remains questionable after practicing limited all week. The Broncos elevated Elijah Moore from the practice squad as insurance. If Franklin is compromised or inactive, Bryant’s workload expands further against a secondary that won’t give Sutton any breathing room.
The Patriots’ Turnaround Meets Denver’s Altitude Test
New England hasn’t won a postseason game in Denver. Ever. The Patriots are 0-4 all-time in Mile High playoff games, including AFC Championship losses in 2013 and 2015. Those historical footnotes won’t matter much to Maye, who was 11 years old the last time the Patriots lost a conference title game here.
Maye’s regular season was historic. He led the NFL in passer rating (113.5) and completion percentage (72%), throwing 31 touchdowns against just eight interceptions. The 10-win turnaround from last year’s 4-13 disaster tied an NFL record. He’s an MVP finalist alongside Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, and Christian McCaffrey.
But Maye has shown vulnerability this postseason. Five turnovers across two games, including four against the Texans, have created concerns about how he’ll handle Denver’s pass rush. Nik Bonitto finished fifth in the league with 14 sacks this season. Jonathon Cooper added eight more. The Broncos recorded 11 more sacks than any other team.
“We have to be able to not get careless with the football. We can’t be reckless,” Vrabel said. “A lot of it is operation. We had two turnovers with not everyone on the same page.”
Per PFSN’s Playoff Predictor, the Patriots hold a commanding 69.8% win probability despite playing on the road.
Vrabel’s defensive blueprint is straightforward: stuff the run, force Stidham to win with his arm, and wait for mistakes. The Patriots held the Chargers to 87 rushing yards (22 carries) and the Texans to 48 yards (22 carries) in their first two playoff wins. Denver’s ground game has struggled all season. Without J.K. Dobbins, who remains out with a foot injury, the Broncos have no counter punch.
Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction
– Analysis provided by PFSN’s Kyle Soppe
The Patriots travel to Denver to take on Jarrett Stidham and the top-seeded Broncos for the right to represent the AFC on Super Sunday.
Will the backup QB sink the home team?
Stidham has under 200 career passes, but he has some similar traits to the injured Bo Nix and gifted offensive minds have consistently brought him on board as a backup. The key to this game may well prove to be his receivers. Courtland Sutton is his top target, but both Pat Bryant and Troy Franklin left last week’s win early.
Bryant specifically could be critical. He was targeted with Denver’s first three passes last week, and figures to be heavily involved again, with Christian Gonzalez expected to shadow Sutton.
For the Patriots, it’s simple. Take care of the ball and stop the run. Drake Maye has shown vulnerability at times this postseason, and short fields are the #1 way to keep Stidham comfortable.
The run defense was shaky in the middle of the season, but they’ve been elite when at full strength, and that’s the case for this contest.
Without offensive balance, it’s hard to see the Broncos getting much past 20 points. That’s not enough against an MVP finalist. This one should be close throughout, but I favor a team in New England that I view as the squad with both the higher floor and ceiling. Pats advance 24-17
