As the days count down until the start of the NFL’s regular season, fantasy football managers find themselves needing to make difficult decisions, going through the pros and cons amongst potential picks. One of those is at running back with two players with high-upside in Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb and Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor. In the first round of fantasy football drafts, which RB should you draft — Chubb or Taylor?
Why you should draft Nick Chubb in 2021 fantasy football leagues
For Chubb, it’s less about making a case to draft him and more about trying to find reasons not to. To put it simply, he is an outlier. In the modern game, where targets and receiving work are more coveted than ever, Chubb manages to buck this trend with his relentless style of running.
Since coming into the league in 2018, all he has done is put up ridiculous numbers. Amongst running backs who have played in 15 or more games since 2018, Chubb is third in yards (3,557), sixth in touchdowns (28), and fourth in yards per game (80.8). His 5.2 yards per carry is third over this time as well (100 rushes minimum).
In 2020 (12 games), Chubb rushed 190 times for 1,067 yards and 12 touchdowns while catching 16 receptions for 150 yards. Even while sharing a backfield with Kareem Hunt, Chubb averaged 17.3 ppg and 1.01 points per touch — virtually all coming on the ground.
Not only does Chubb have a career average of 5.2 yards per carry, but he’s running behind one of the best offensive lines in football with Jack Conklin, Wyatt Teller, J.C. Tretter, Joel Bitonio, and Jedrick Wills.
In nine of 12 games last season, Chubb saw 15 or more opportunities and rushed for 80+ yards in eight of them. That’s the floor for Chubb in 2021.
The case for Nick Chubb over Jonathan Taylor
Chubb is the exception for every rule we have in fantasy, and outside of Derrick Henry, boasts a fantasy outlook that is solely reliant on his play rather than needing a QB to get the ball in his hands.
While Taylor has receiving ability, we know the durability concerns for Carson Wentz. I mean, the guy already has more surgeries than games played for the Colts in 2021. If anything, the injury and subsequent surgery to Quenton Nelson worries me more.
We also need to mention that for as incredible as Taylor was in 2020, he did it against the bottom-of-the-barrel defenses last season. Plus, he only got his role as early as he did due to Marlon Mack tearing his Achilles. Not only is Mack back, but so are Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins. Additionally, Wentz is known to scramble at times — something Philip Rivers could never imagine doing last year.
Last season, Chubb missed four games but was still the RB9 in fantasy while recording the seventh-most rushing yards. If we think the Browns attempt roughly 30 rushes a game and Chubb sees around 60% of them, this places him at 250 carries. Only using his career average, Chubb would end with 1,307 yards rushing. In 2019, Chubb recorded 298 carries, and from Weeks 10-17, was on pace for 282.5. If anything, 250 carries is a conservative projection.
Now imagine Chubb lucks into 30 receptions, less than 2 per game. If that happens, he’s essentially a lock to finish inside the top five RBs in fantasy football.
Why you should draft Jonathan Taylor in 2021 fantasy football leagues
All Taylor has done is produce, even going back to his days terrorizing the Big Ten at Wisconsin. From 2017 to 2019, Taylor generated three consecutive seasons of 2,000+ yards for the Badgers. That production carried into his rookie season as well, although more gradually than some wanted.
Playing on 43% of the snaps through the first 10 weeks, Taylor averaged 15.2 opportunities and 10.7 fantasy points per game. He rushed 113 times for 428 yards with 4 TDs while adding 22 receptions for 203 yards. As the RB19, this was respectable but not overly impressive given his talent. Then, the Colts unleashed him.
Taylor ended the season as the RB3 from Weeks 11-17 (23.1 ppg). He was second in rushing over this stretch with 741 yards (123.5 per game) and scored 8 total touchdowns.
The Colts know what they have in Taylor, and you can bet head coach Frank Reich will heavily involve him. What has to be encouraging is that Taylor will only get more work this year. Last season, he was 27th in snaps at just 49% amongst RBs — a number that will undoubtedly increase in 2021. Combined with 40-reception upside, Taylor is a locked-in first-round RB in fantasy football drafts.
The case for Jonathan Taylor over Nick Chubb
When it comes to Taylor, we are just scratching the surface on what he is capable of in the NFL. As mentioned, he played on just 49% of the snaps while being stuck in a stubborn committee. All Taylor did was record the third-most rushing yards. Yeah, no big deal.
Taylor also runs like a bowling ball, recording 479 yards after contact. For as good as Chubb has it behind his offensive line, Taylor has it nearly as well. In fact, Taylor was fourth amongst RBs in yards before contact at 3.0.
The differentiating factor between Taylor and Chubb is the level of competition they share the backfield with, as no one would put Hines in the same category as Hunt. In 2020, Hunt was the RB10 while averaging 15 opportunities per game — even when Chubb was on the field — and totaled 51 targets.
For as much as we hope Chubb gets passing work, we don’t need to worry about that with Taylor. We know he will be involved in the passing game, and when each target resulted in 1.53 fantasy points (top 60 RB average), that quickly adds up throughout a season. That is potentially as much as 30 points between these two RBs, which is not an insignificant number in fantasy football.
Which RB should you draft in fantasy football between Nick Chubb and Jonathan Taylor?
With both RBs going inside the first round of fantasy football drafts, it’s easy to see why both Chubb and Taylor are so valuable. They bring an upside and consistency that is hard to match.
I think the debate between them comes down to format. In full PPR, Taylor has a slight edge. But if those targets do come for Chubb, the edge evaporates. Throw in his otherworldly ability to rack up 100-yard games (38% of his career regular-season games), along with his innate ability to find the end zone (9.3 TD average), and there is a compelling case for Chubb to be a top-six RB in fantasy.
In my projections, these two came out within a touchdown of each other in total fantasy points, which is basically nothing. No matter which RB you choose to go with in your fantasy football drafts, you are coming out of the first round with an elite talent.