Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb did significant damage to his ACL, MCL, and meniscus in Week 2 last season, but all signs point to him trending in a positive direction. Chubb’s exact timeline remains a bit of a guessing game for fantasy football managers. Is he worth a late seventh-round selection for those looking to play the long game?
Nick Chubb’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
From 2020-22, 42 running backs carried the rock at least 300 times. Chubb had as good of a case as any of them to be considered the top rusher over that stretch (minimum 300 carries):
- First in yards per carry (5.3)
- Second in rushing yards per game (89.6)
- Third in rushing touchdowns per game (0.7)
For further context, when watching Derrick Henry, it’s easy to assume that he’s the toughest tackle in the history of mankind. Well, over those three years, Chubb averaged 5.4% more yards per carry after contact than The King.
At 28 years old, it’s reasonable to think that there is still gas left in the tank — if his knee says so. In 2023, two of the top four running backs in PPR points per game were at least 28 years old (Alvin Kamara and Raheem Mostert), giving us hope that while the age curve certainly doesn’t favor aging backs, there are still exceptions.
The prevailing wisdom seems to be that Chubb will be eased into 2024. Whether that means he’s active in September remains to be determined, but the odds of him assuming anything close to his traditional workload (17.8 carries per game in 2022) before the middle of the season seems optimistic.
That’s fine.
Right now, Chubb’s ADP has him being drafted as an RB3 and outside of the first six rounds, occasionally falling to Round 8. Savvy fantasy managers know that this game is more of a marathon than a sprint, and those same people tend to trust themselves when it comes to their ability to piece together a roster as they wait for things to take shape come the postseason.
This is nothing more than speculation on my part, but with a Week 10 bye, I’m operating under the thought that Chubb has a chance to be a bell cow by Week 11. That gives him roughly one month to get into peak form for the fantasy playoffs.
- Week 15 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 16 at Cincinnati Bengals
- Week 17 vs. Miami Dolphins
- Week 18 at Baltimore Ravens
Notice anything in that schedule?
They are all elite offenses that Cleveland will not want to engage in a track meet. For me, that means a lot of ground-and-pound, potentially with a reasonably fresh Chubb if his reps were managed properly prior.
The potential for Chubb to be relied upon heavily when it matters most (along with him squatting enough weight this offseason to give a math major problems) is appealing to me. Chubb’s current ADP lands him in the range of Jaylen Warren and Zack Moss, both of whom are going to have to fight tooth and nail to lead their respective teams in RB touches.
I don’t think that’s the case for Chubb. After he proves to the team (and himself) that he is at full strength, I expect his heavy workload to return as the importance of the games ramps up. That could make him a league winner.
There is no denying the risk that you’re taking on, but you’re aware of that risk going in. You get the ability to draft accordingly — focus on early-season production and role certainty out of the gates.
I’m not likely to pair Chubb with a Jonathon Brooks type, but what about Devin Singletary? I don’t love his outlook for the season as a whole, but he has an early schedule that he should be able to navigate and doesn’t go on bye until Week 11.
The hope there is that Singletary can produce viable numbers for the first half of the season while Chubb gets up to speed and then, ideally, won’t see your lineup ever again.
I’m drafting talent and figuring out the rest. The talent here is real, and he is priced to sell right now.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Insights on Nick Chubb
Had Chubb not gotten hurt, he would likely have entered the season being drafted as an RB1. Instead, he’s being drafted as an RB4, specifically going around RB39.
When considering whether a player is worth drafting at his ADP, it’s important to figure out what that player’s expected fantasy points will be. In 99% of cases, it’s easy. You can simply look up what the average RB4 scored last season. For Chubb, we can’t do that.
Instead, we have to do an internal cost/benefit assessment of whether six, eight, or 10 weeks of Chubb is worth more than the alternatives going around him. When players are suspended, this proposition is much easier. We know the player is coming back healthy, so all we have to deduce is whether not having that player’s production for a certain predetermined number of weeks is worth drafting him at his ADP.
In a situation like Chubb’s, we don’t know when he’ll return; we just know that he’ll miss the first four games of the regular season. Most importantly, we don’t know what level of production we’re getting when he does take the field. The best way to go about this is to break your analysis up into pieces.
First, figure out where you would be willing to draft him if you knew you were only getting eight games of vintage Chubb production. If you knew you would get around 15-17 ppg for eight games, is that worth his RB39 price tag? To that, I say absolutely. Next, we need to factor in how likely it is Chubb returns to his former self. This is where things start to fall off for me.
At nearly 29 years old, it’s hard to feel great about Chubb experiencing no drop off in ability. If he returns to a timeshare with Jerome Ford or D’Onta Foreman, and is merely a low RB2, is that worth drafting at his RB31 ADP? I’m not so sure.